Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

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Scotland said:
Maybe. Unless he gets an AFL appointed gig like Paul Roos to go and fix a basket case club I can't see him moving though. He's already a club GOAT coach I would have thought (or Jeans/Kennedy Sr) and has resources, structures etc. around him so why would he move? A sack full of cash? A challenge of dragging a team off the bottom? Seeing a list like St Kilda in the mid 2000s and knowing they should be performing better?

Jock McHale coached 38 seasons at one club. Maybe Clarkson will still be where is now in another 20 years... One angry dwarf and 200 solemn faces. :)
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Kennedy is the GOAT of Hawthorn, Clarkson the GOAT of the AFL. :)


BenFF.... really?
 
Gavin Excell said:
Given the mediocrity since 2015 - would yet another bottom 8 finish suggest perhaps things aren't so rosy?
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We've really only been mediocre by Hawthorn's high standards. Two top four finishes in those 4 years. One errant kick after the siren away from a prelim. Missed finals by 1.5 wins in 2017 after our worst start to the season I can remember while transitioning out S.Mitchell and Lewis. Unlucky pre-season injury to reigning Brownlow medalist was almost certainly the difference between finals and missing out in 2019. So yeah, mediocre compared to a 3-peat, but still a couple of spots above average compared to the competition.

And yes, I'd be concerned if we finish bottom 8 this year. How concerned would depend on how much of that was bad luck vs not being up to it though. We've got a bit more depth at the moment than we've had for several seasons, so I'm a bit more confident we could handle a few injuries, but depends on where they are distributed. Competition is very even right now, so there are not many teams who can handle injuries to a few of their best players and still make finals. GWS perhaps the only one. Tigers were heading to miss finals in 2019 until they got some players back, and got on a late run (although they did well to still be within striking distance of the 8 given the outs they did have earlier in the year).

We are still a work in progress at this stage, but I'm probably the most confident I've been since 2016. Geelong were 10th when they were 4 years past their last flag, so we are no worse off than them at the same point. The main concern is that building a team that can play finals and building a team that can win a prelim and have a crack at a flag is a very different thing. Geelong fans know that better than anyone. I think we have a team that can play finals this year - winning a prelim, I'm not so sure.
 
hk89 said:
We've really only been mediocre by Hawthorn's high standards. Two top four finishes in those 4 years. One errant kick after the siren away from a prelim. Missed finals by 1.5 wins in 2017 after our worst start to the season I can remember while transitioning out S.Mitchell and Lewis. Unlucky pre-season injury to reigning Brownlow medalist was almost certainly the difference between finals and missing out in 2019. So yeah, mediocre compared to a 3-peat, but still a couple of spots above average compared to the competition.

And yes, I'd be concerned if we finish bottom 8 this year. How concerned would depend on how much of that was bad luck vs not being up to it though. We've got a bit more depth at the moment than we've had for several seasons, so I'm a bit more confident we could handle a few injuries, but depends on where they are distributed. Competition is very even right now, so there are not many teams who can handle injuries to a few of their best players and still make finals. GWS perhaps the only one. Tigers were heading to miss finals in 2019 until they got some players back, and got on a late run (although they did well to still be within striking distance of the 8 given the outs they did have earlier in the year).

We are still a work in progress at this stage, but I'm probably the most confident I've been since 2016. Geelong were 10th when they were 4 years past their last flag, so we are no worse off than them at the same point. The main concern is that building a team that can play finals and building a team that can win a prelim and have a crack at a flag is a very different thing. Geelong fans know that better than anyone. I think we have a team that can play finals this year - winning a prelim, I'm not so sure.
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I don't know if bad luck would explain away a bottom 8 finish for us this year.

If we are slow to gel, and then come home strong, and just miss the finals, then maybe I can understand. And i would give them another year to prove themselves.

But overall, given our list, the time to prove our credentials is 2020.
 

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Patton and Lewis will get the number one and two key defenders respectively = Gunston to freewheel as he won’t have any suitable matchups

Who gets the best small defender Breust or Wingard?

Who gets the number one tag Mitchell or Worpel?

The addition of Frost will allow Sicily to freewheel

Burgoyne to play as a permanent forward and add the finishing touches.

#hawthornproblems
 
Scotland said:
Maybe. Unless he gets an AFL appointed gig like Paul Roos to go and fix a basket case club I can't see him moving though. He's already a club GOAT coach I would have thought (or Jeans/Kennedy Sr) and has resources, structures etc. around him so why would he move? A sack full of cash? A challenge of dragging a team off the bottom? Seeing a list like St Kilda in the mid 2000s and knowing they should be performing better?

Jock McHale coached 38 seasons at one club. Maybe Clarkson will still be where is now in another 20 years... One angry dwarf and 200 solemn faces. :)
Click to expand...
I've not heard that song for a loooong time and now it's in my head
 

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Its probably been done, but what is succeed? Be better than half the competition since the thread started? *CHECK*

And the timeframe.

I don't think its really sticking my neck out to predict that for the period 2016-2022, Hawks will be comfortably inside the best performed 9 clubs and will make at least one more Prelim.
This would actually be at the lower end of expectations. But the period will be better than a lot of clubs. In fact some would be extatic to think they could get a prelim by 2022
I guess the people expect the bar for the hawks to be higher than the,y one they expect for their own club

Which also means very little access to early draft picks, and no top 6 picks.
 
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WWSD said:
Patton and Lewis will get the number one and two key defenders respectively = Gunston to freewheel as he won’t have any suitable matchups

Who gets the best small defender Breust or Wingard?

Who gets the number one tag Mitchell or Worpel?

The addition of Frost will allow Sicily to freewheel

Burgoyne to play as a permanent forward and add the finishing touches.

#hawthornproblems
Click to expand...

Patton will probably be injured - I mean the bloke is coming back from what his 4th reco?
Wingard will probably be injured since he's a lazy prick.
Burgoyne will probably be out with arthritis.

As to who gets the tag its obviously Mitchell since he can actually hit a target by foot.
It'll be interesting if Gunston and Breust can actually get back to some of their best footy or not.

Hawks are far from a guarantee to make the 8 in my books.
 
TylerDurden said:
This year has bucked the trend, with Day and Maginess as early picks. Patton, Scully, Wingard all early picks traded in.

Got lucky with late picks in Worpel and Lewis.

2020 will be a fun ride.
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Patton and Scully were acquired as salary cap dump offs and huge injury risks. Id say thats a bit of a caveat and they are more discard status rather than valued comodities.
 
juss said:
Patton and Scully were acquired as salary cap dump offs and huge injury risks. Id say thats a bit of a caveat and they are more discard status rather than valued comodities.
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They were early picks when drafted though. Which is what this thread is about.
 
blitzer said:
Patton will probably be injured - I mean the bloke is coming back from what his 4th reco?
Wingard will probably be injured since he's a lazy prick.
Burgoyne will probably be out with arthritis.

As to who gets the tag its obviously Mitchell since he can actually hit a target by foot.
It'll be interesting if Gunston and Breust can actually get back to some of their best footy or not.

Hawks are far from a guarantee to make the 8 in my books.
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Wingard has had a full pre-season for the first time in years, Patton has lost about 5-6kgs. He gives the Hawks a marking target. He doesn’t need to dominate at all.

Gunston and Breust are expected to rebound from last year with an increased number of inside 50s per game with Mitchell returning, Lewis had 35 scoring shots from 12 games last year which is a decent output.

The Hawks back six is underrated and finished 3rd last year in points conceded, first in contested marks, 1st in rebound 50s. Haven’t conceded over 100 points since Round 5 against Geelong.

The Hawks midfield isn’t the best in the league, but it ain’t the worst either.

A better run with injuries in 2020 and it’s not an unreasonable prediction to suggest that Hawthorn might win 2-3 more games than last year and make the finals.
 
juss said:
Sure but thats not the same as investing in the elite end of the draft, or a 37 year old Burgoyne would qualify.
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Interesting you mention Silk given we paid a first rounder for him. He was 27 and on crutches following knee surgery.
Worked out ok though didn't it.
 
Gralin said:
Interesting you mention Silk given we paid a first rounder for him. He was 27 and on crutches following knee surgery.
Worked out ok though didn't it.
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Irrelevent to the thread question though lol. What other players that dont address the question do you want to tell me about?
 
juss said:
Irrelevent to the thread question though lol. What other players that dont address the question do you want to tell me about?
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He's relevant. We've been bringing in players for a long time. We've been using early picks in trades more than at the draft for a long time.
As mentioned many times we are not ignoring elite talent nor are we short of players that were high draft picks.
 
juss said:
........
Thats not what the argument is, it specifically questioning the draft. Trading is an entirely different list management debate.
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It's all a list management debate.
Can we regenerate our list and be successful without going the route of bottoming out and drafting a bunch of kids in the first two rounds.

What we do with those picks instead and whether we are improving our list is part of it.
 
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