Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

Abasi

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Let's just ignore where Jaeger, Jono, Chad, Scullz, Scrimshaw were drafted let alone acknowledge Mitchell, Worpel, Hardwick, & Lewis as draft bargains.


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And the list of top 8 teams Hawthorn got the better of with a thin midfield last year.... It’s key to the argument too.
 

Bunk Moreland

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No. The model Clarko built his success on was needing a certain number of A grade players on the team and building around that with role players.

Back when he came in you could only get those players via the draft. So he traded out blokes that weren't in the age profile for picks and used those on a mixture of kids and second or third chance players in the preseason and rookie drafts.

He's still working on that model he just had more than one way to bring in A graders and role players now
Has it changed though?

You can bring players in via trade and FA but they cost more both in trade and contract, and you don’t get them for their whole career where they grow together.

Has there been a great team that has done it any other way?

Richmond has been dominant at the moment - draft core has been Cotchin (pick 2), Martin (pick 3), Riewoldt (pick 13), Rioli (pick 15), Rance (pick 18) and Edwards (pick 26).

They don’t win any flags without those picks, and bringing them in via trade or FA? Impossibly expensive.

That’s why it’s such a different approach by Hawthorn - they almost totally ignored the draft for so many years. If they pull this off, wow... it’s revolutionary.
 

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TheBrownDog
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Has it changed though?

You can bring players in via trade and FA but they cost more both in trade and contract, and you don’t get them for their whole career where they grow together.

Has there been a great team that has done it any other way?

Richmond has been dominant at the moment - draft core has been Cotchin (pick 2), Martin (pick 3), Riewoldt (pick 13), Rioli (pick 15), Rance (pick 18) and Edwards (pick 26).

They don’t win any flags without those picks, and bringing them in via trade or FA? Impossibly expensive.

That’s why it’s such a different approach by Hawthorn - they almost totally ignored the draft for so many years. If they pull this off, wow... it’s revolutionary.
Revolution? It’s the way it was done before the draft and priority picks became the norm. Consider that that may have been the aberration
 

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TheBrownDog
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Agree that it doesn’t. But Hawthorn don’t have the same level of stars that they drafted as they did back then. The traded players now aren’t being added to a core of stars putting them over the top like they were before.

If Hawthorn had have traded out of the first two rounds of the 2004, 2005 and 2006 drafts like they did in 2015, 2016 and 2017, there’s no golden era. You need both.
wasnt 2006 noted for limited trades anyway? Across the afl not just hawthorn
 

Gralin

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Has it changed though?

You can bring players in via trade and FA but they cost more both in trade and contract, and you don’t get them for their whole career where they grow together.

Has there been a great team that has done it any other way?

Richmond has been dominant at the moment - draft core has been Cotchin (pick 2), Martin (pick 3), Riewoldt (pick 13), Rioli (pick 15), Rance (pick 18) and Edwards (pick 26).

They don’t win any flags without those picks, and bringing them in via trade or FA? Impossibly expensive.

That’s why it’s such a different approach by Hawthorn - they almost totally ignored the draft for so many years. If they pull this off, wow... it’s revolutionary.
We've not ignored the draft.
 

Gralin

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Has it changed though?

You can bring players in via trade and FA but they cost more both in trade and contract, and you don’t get them for their whole career where they grow together.

Has there been a great team that has done it any other way?

Richmond has been dominant at the moment - draft core has been Cotchin (pick 2), Martin (pick 3), Riewoldt (pick 13), Rioli (pick 15), Rance (pick 18) and Edwards (pick 26).

They don’t win any flags without those picks, and bringing them in via trade or FA? Impossibly expensive.

That’s why it’s such a different approach by Hawthorn - they almost totally ignored the draft for so many years. If they pull this off, wow... it’s revolutionary.
Also Rance didn't feature this year for the tigers.
Caddy, Houli, Prestia, Nank and Lynch all did though
 
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TheBrownDog
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We've not ignored the draft.
quite. The new entries to the best 22 have come half from trades and half from draft and development.

it’s been this way since 2010. Just Liam Shiels was on the list back in 2009. It’s really not new, and it’s certainly not unsuccessful. Judge us after 2022

Liam and just seven others on 2009 list became part of the 16 players who triple premiershipped in 13-15
 

Bunk Moreland

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Also Rance didn't feature this year for the tigers.
Caddy, Houli, Prestia, Nank and Lynch all did though
And Lynch didn’t feature in 2017. You’re just fiddling around the margins.

The core of the Tigers great team - their elite players - came through the draft.
 

juss

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they won three flags in a row.if hawthorn won just one flag in the next few years is that a fail then?
No that would be an outstanding success. But based on the trajectory of other teams and basic mathematical probabilities and predictive odds they are more likely to be also rans than win a flag in the next few years.
 

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TheBrownDog
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And Lynch didn’t feature in 2017. You’re just fiddling around the margins.

The core of the Tigers great team - their elite players - came through the draft.
cotchin and rance drafted 2007. Each has served the tigers for 19 seasonsTigers finished bottom two. Hawks got Rioli that year and traded in McEvoy later. Thy played finals.
Rioli returned eight very good years for hawks. McEvoy has been well above average and is about to play his 7th year at the hawks. That’s the difference

Martin recruited pick 3 by the tigers in 2009. Hawks traded for Burgoyne who is still going as is Martin. Despite finishing low the tigers hardly got anything in that years draft, later picks for the hawks returned Stratton duryea suckling

Riewoldt 2006 when the hawks also had early draftpicks and blew them. Riewoldt now in his 14th season. Like James Frawley incidentally.really like jack always have

ironically when Wallace went to the tigers in 2005 he declared the richmond list far advanced on hawthorns.

so is the suggestion hawks somehow get top 4 draft picks for four years running, in order to be threatening in ten years time? Eight years after year 4?
Current strategy would have to go really really wrong to go worse than that

the team which followed the advice in much of this forum for success under even seven years is mythical
 

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TheBrownDog
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No that would be an outstanding success. But based on the trajectory of other teams and basic mathematical probabilities and predictive odds they are more likely to be also rans than win a flag in the next few years.
one team from eighteen each year. Most teams will be also rans. Including many in this thread quoted as haveing far superior young players to hawthorn
 

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TheBrownDog
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No that would be an outstanding success. But based on the trajectory of other teams and basic mathematical probabilities and predictive odds they are more likely to be also rans than win a flag in the next few years.
I was in a round about way saying you are projecting a higher standard for success on hawthorn then other teams. Now worries, our posters do that too
 

Gralin

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And Lynch didn’t feature in 2017. You’re just fiddling around the margins.

The core of the Tigers great team - their elite players - came through the draft.
Houli has been there for 9 years are you suggesting he isn't part of their elite core?
Rance didn't play this year but Lynch did, do you think they would have won without Lynch this year?

The other three joined the club in 2017, when did they start winning flags again?

I'm not fiddling around the edges I'm saying they didn't win the two flags just because of the guys they drafted and as much as we like to act like home grown talent is the only elite talent that's not the case.
 

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Bunk Moreland

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cotchin and rance drafted 2007. Each has served the tigers for 19 seasonsTigers finished bottom two. Hawks got Rioli that year and traded in McEvoy later. Thy played finals.
Rioli returned eight very good years for hawks. McEvoy has been well above average and is about to play his 7th year at the hawks. That’s the difference

Martin recruited pick 3 by the tigers in 2009. Hawks traded for Burgoyne who is still going as is Martin. Despite finishing low the tigers hardly got anything in that years draft, later picks for the hawks returned Stratton duryea suckling

Riewoldt 2006 when the hawks also had early draftpicks and blew them. Riewoldt now in his 14th season. Like James Frawley incidentally.really like jack always have

ironically when Wallace went to the tigers in 2005 he declared the richmond list far advanced on hawthorns.

so is the suggestion hawks somehow get top 4 draft picks for four years running, in order to be threatening in ten years time? Eight years after year 4?
Current strategy would have to go really really wrong to go worse than that

the team which followed the advice in much of this forum for success under even seven years is mythical
No, the suggestion is that traditionally, in order to win flags, you needed to build a team core from the first two rounds in the draft.

Hawthorn have clearly taken a very different route to this - they actively traded their early round picks for years on end.

It’s a very different approach, that’s all. Can it be successful? Of course it can - it’s possible. But it’s a different, unproven approach... and I maintain, fascinating. For footy nerds like me anyway.

Between 2011 and 2018 - 8 drafts - the Hawks took a sum total of 8 picks in the top 40. Just two of them, O’Brien and Howe - remain at the club.

Does that mean they’ve had no talent coming in? Of course not. They’ve just taken a very different approach.
 

TylerDurden

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No, the suggestion is that traditionally, in order to win flags, you needed to build a team core from the first two rounds in the draft.

Hawthorn have clearly taken a very different route to this - they actively traded their early round picks for years on end.

It’s a very different approach, that’s all. Can it be successful? Of course it can - it’s possible. But it’s a different, unproven approach... and I maintain, fascinating. For footy nerds like me anyway.

Between 2011 and 2018 - 8 drafts - the Hawks took a sum total of 8 picks in the top 40. Just two of them, O’Brien and Howe - remain at the club.

Does that mean they’ve had no talent coming in? Of course not. They’ve just taken a very different approach.
All valid points. The mail is that Wright doesnt value picks in the teens. Hence the reason they flippantly traded them out. More of a lottery after pick 10, according to the research. They took Burton at 19, then traded him. Lovell at pick 22ish, then delisted him. Keen to see how Day goes but he's 2 years off from all reports.

My point is, by being successful, you dont get access to the elite end. By default. You gotta find other ways.
 

Bunk Moreland

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Houli has been there for 9 years are you suggesting he isn't part of their elite core?
Rance didn't play this year but Lynch did, do you think they would have won without Lynch this year?

The other three joined the club in 2017, when did they start winning flags again?

I'm not fiddling around the edges I'm saying they didn't win the two flags just because of the guys they drafted and as much as we like to act like home grown talent is the only elite talent that's not the case.
Nope, not just because of them. But I'm not sure there's been a premiership team without a drafted core of stars.
 

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TheBrownDog
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No, the suggestion is that traditionally, in order to win flags, you needed to build a team core from the first two rounds in the draft.

Hawthorn have clearly taken a very different route to this - they actively traded their early round picks for years on end.

It’s a very different approach, that’s all. Can it be successful? Of course it can - it’s possible. But it’s a different, unproven approach... and I maintain, fascinating. For footy nerds like me anyway.

Between 2011 and 2018 - 8 drafts - the Hawks took a sum total of 8 picks in the top 40. Just two of them, O’Brien and Howe - remain at the club.

Does that mean they’ve had no talent coming in? Of course not. They’ve just taken a very different approach.
and my contention is the tradition. The premiership clock stuff, is post priority picks, and is losing favour anyway. Before that it was recruit well and go for a win every single year
 

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TheBrownDog
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No, the suggestion is that traditionally, in order to win flags, you needed to build a team core from the first two rounds in the draft.

Hawthorn have clearly taken a very different route to this - they actively traded their early round picks for years on end.

It’s a very different approach, that’s all. Can it be successful? Of course it can - it’s possible. But it’s a different, unproven approach... and I maintain, fascinating. For footy nerds like me anyway.

Between 2011 and 2018 - 8 drafts - the Hawks took a sum total of 8 picks in the top 40. Just two of them, O’Brien and Howe - remain at the club.

Does that mean they’ve had no talent coming in? Of course not. They’ve just taken a very different approach.
Between 2010 and 2018 hawks drfted and made triple premiers of Breust, smith, Puopolo before that Stratton Rioli shiels. Schoenmakers suckling duryea Bailey Premiership players too.
Since then quality in Sicily Hardwick worpel mitchell And Howe Nash etc to a lesser level
 

Gralin

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Nope, not just because of them. But I'm not sure there's been a premiership team without a drafted core of stars.
The draft isn't that old. Plenty of successful teams prior to the draft era.
The tradition you speak of covers a period you could say started in 1986, but then teams at that time weren't built from the draft.
You couldn't even say from 1990 when it became the AFL.
We've got less than 30 years of this tradition where teams were built almost solely through the draft.
Free agency has only been around for 8 years but Hawks were trading first round picks for players as far back as 2009 with Burgoyne.

We've been building this way for 11 years
Zoning was simply the prior incarnation of drafting.
Lol no
 

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TheBrownDog
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Do we really have people and more comically, Essendon supporters questioning Clarkos strategy? Wowser lol, you can't make this up, classic stuff.
a strategy that most clubs use to some extent.

if say for arguments sake you are in your four year reload through the draft (and you wouldn’t be higher than bottom six in that time, so it sounds incredible that you’d do it for longer than that)
Say a Chris Judd type go home player is available. Do you say no? How good would the saints be now with big boy in their leadership group?
 

Bunk Moreland

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The draft isn't that old. Plenty of successful teams prior to the draft era.
The tradition you speak of covers a period you could say started in 1986, but then teams at that time weren't built from the draft.
You couldn't even say from 1990 when it became the AFL.
We've got less than 30 years of this tradition where teams were built almost solely through the draft.
Free agency has only been around for 8 years but Hawks were trading first round picks for players as far back as 2009 with Burgoyne.

We've been building this way for 11 years
And the core was acquired prior to that. Without the top 40 draft guns listed in the OP, I'd submit Hawthorn wouldn't have won 1 flag, let alone 4.

They could always fill gaps around that core because they were so good.

That core is gone.

Do we really have people and more comically, Essendon supporters questioning Clarkos strategy? Wowser lol, you can't make this up, classic stuff.
If you think it's not worthy of discussion, i can point you in the direction of 10,000 posts that suggest otherwise.

It was a big change of direction for Clarko, who built the core of his great teams through the early rounds of the draft.

There's nothing to say it won't work. Sometimes the hallmark of the very best in their ability to reinvent themselves. Alex Ferguson is a great example.

But it's interesting. If you don't have a contribution, maybe you could just bugger off.
 

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