Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

Gralin

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I don't think that's strictly true. Young team with premiership hangover but finals 3 out of 4 years. And were minor premiers and leading the GF with 10 minutes to go in 2012...

2011 was one of the most ridiculous seasons I can remember. We won 17 games and finished 4th. Hawthorn won 18 and finished 3rd. I'm pretty comfortable there was a decent gap from 4th to 3rd, but then the was a bigger gap to the top 2. 18-4 144% would've won the minor premiership any year from 2014-2019. Even 17 games is enough most years.

Hawthorn's biggest problem from 2009-2012 was that Trent Croad retired at 28 (broken foot?) and they didn't have a decent full back. They tried a mixture of players who were either undersized and/or not very good. Insert Lake and it was immediately a better structure.
By the end of 2012 we were seen as fragile. We couldn't beat Geelong, had been run down in a prelim and a grand final.
We weren't considered the benchmark or the most ruthless or the hardest.
We looked like a talented team that couldn't get it done when the chips were down.

Things changed after 2012. How those players are remembered changed because of what they achieved

With most of this current team we don't know whether they will get to a grand final let alone win one.

We can guess but that's all we can do for now.

On paper they've got a long way to go to co parenting to that team though
 

AlwaysHawks15

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Nope, not just because of them. But I'm not sure there's been a premiership team without a drafted core of stars.
Your drafted stars might get you to finals, your traded in missing pieces of the puzzle wins you premierships. You need to look at the opposing argument from another angle. If you can get a group of guys coming through together who are in their early to mid twenties now how is that any different to building a core of players from the draft?. Instead of patiently building these guys into the players you want after years of development why not get those players in that are ready to go?. We are not going out trading in geriatrics, the majority of them haven't even hit their primes yet. It's not as if we haven't got talented kids either you just haven't had a good look at them yet. Luke Breust was a rookie selection. He would easily be in the top echelon of players drafted his year right now if you did an analysis. Just because a particular method or strategy hasn't been trialled in the past does not mean it will never work.
 

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Freomaniac

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Its probably been done, but what is succeed? Be better than half the competition since the thread started? *CHECK*

And the timeframe.

I don't think its really sticking my neck out to predict that for the period 2016-2022, Hawks will be comfortably inside the best performed 9 clubs and will make at least one more Prelim.
This would actually be at the lower end of expectations. But the period will be better than a lot of clubs. In fact some would be extatic to think they could get a prelim by 2022
I guess the people expect the bar for the hawks to be higher than the,y one they expect for their own club

Which also means very little access to early draft picks, and no top 6 picks.
funnily enough some of the better players the hawks have got over the years came between picks 20-40 such as Issac Smith, Sam Mitchell and Brad Hill
 

La Dispute

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Daniel's got a fair way to go before he can be seriously compared to Cyril. He's on the right trajectory though.
Not really - has actually plateaued since 2017 and is still nothing more than a good contributor who doesn’t actually kick many goals.

Cyril was a far better player at the same point in time.
 

matey

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Hawks players chosen for the Vics v Allstars ....... even the selectors are ignoring elite end draft picks!
 
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hk89

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Daniel's got a fair way to go before he can be seriously compared to Cyril. He's on the right trajectory though.
In what way? Daniel averaged 0.7 goals in his first year, and 0.7 goals in his 4th year. Cyril averaged 1.0 goals in his first year, and 1.5 in his 4th year, with two 40+ goal seasons over his career. I see no sign Daniel is building a trajectory to be comparable to Cyril, if anything, he's stagnating as the other poster mentioned. The only comparison I see at this point is that neither was able to make the most of his talent due to injury. If Daniel gets his body right for a few seasons in a row, he might start to progress towards Cyril levels, but he's a long way off now, and currently isn't moving towards closing the gap.
 

Gralin

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In what way? Daniel averaged 0.7 goals in his first year, and 0.7 goals in his 4th year. Cyril averaged 1.0 goals in his first year, and 1.5 in his 4th year, with two 40+ goal seasons over his career. I see no sign Daniel is building a trajectory to be comparable to Cyril, if anything, he's stagnating as the other poster mentioned. The only comparison I see at this point is that neither was able to make the most of his talent due to injury. If Daniel gets his body right for a few seasons in a row, he might start to progress towards Cyril levels, but he's a long way off now, and currently isn't moving towards closing the gap.
Please don't tell me you're going with a straight goals per game average to compare them.

They are both their own players and it's not like Daniel isn't a talented young player worth watching who can do things to turn a game

He's players good footy in finals too. He's also only four years into his career.

And the post you quoted literally said he's got a fair way to go...
 

hk89

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They are both their own players and it's not like Daniel isn't a talented young player worth watching who can do things to turn a game

He's players good footy in finals too. He's also only four years into his career.

And the post you quoted literally said he's got a fair way to go...
The post I quoted suggested that he was on a trajectory to be comparable. This is the point I was disagreeing with. His trajectory says he's not really developed much in the last few years. Sure, his body has had issues, but I don't think you can talk about any kind of trajectory given he looks pretty flat across most metrics (yes including goals per game).
 

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La Dispute

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The post I quoted suggested that he was on a trajectory to be comparable. This is the point I was disagreeing with. His trajectory says he's not really developed much in the last few years. Sure, his body has had issues, but I don't think you can talk about any kind of trajectory given he looks pretty flat across most metrics (yes including goals per game).
Cyril was one of the best small forwards in the league by his 4th year in the system and had increased his output each year, while Daniel isn’t even ahead of Jason Castagna at this point in time.

I don’t think Daniel’s ceiling is anywhere near Cyril’s tbh.
 

Captain chaos

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Cyril was one of the best small forwards in the league by his 4th year in the system and had increased his output each year, while Daniel isn’t even ahead of Jason Castagna at this point in time.

I don’t think Daniel’s ceiling is anywhere near Cyril’s tbh.
Watch daniels finals.. they are some of his best games. Four goal in 17 prelim all when needed( not junk) and played well up in brisbane in the final. Not as good as cyril but you are underating him a tad. Daniel also missed the first 14 weeks of 2018.
 

Hawk_francais

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Watch daniels finals.. they are some of his best games. Four goal in 17 prelim all when needed( not junk) and played well up in brisbane in the final. Not as good as cyril but you are underating him a tad. Daniel also missed the first 14 weeks of 2018.
I've never understood the need to bring one player down in order to raise another higher. Especially when it comes to these players that make our sluggish game more exciting and watchable. I hope Daniel gets better and better.

Still confused what happened to Steven Motlop. In the 2013 prelim he was playing superbly, moved and kicked liked Daniel Wells - it seemed to be a breakout game and he was a big reason the Cats got ahead. At some pointin the second half he just twisted his ankle a bit or something, and dropped off. I'm still convinced that the Geelong would've won if not for that. Since then... no more game changing, midweek beers, traded and flashes of brilliance. What's the Geelong hypothesis? Undisciplined or never really had the talent to begin with?
 

blaisee

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Hawthorn are a middle of the road old team with limited prospects.

They haven't won a final since 2015.

So this year, if the trend continues it will be 6 years in a row without winning finals.

Combine this with an ageing list, with limited star power, and add a strategy of high risk veteran injured players = trouble.

Hawthorn are much more likely to finish in the bottom 4, than the top 4.

Making the finals is possible, but it will be a long, long time until Hawthorn will be truly relevant again.
 

mattwa

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Hawthorn are a middle of the road old team with limited prospects.

They haven't won a final since 2015.

So this year, if the trend continues it will be 6 years in a row without winning finals.

Combine this with an ageing list, with limited star power, and add a strategy of high risk veteran injured players = trouble.

Hawthorn are much more likely to finish in the bottom 4, than the top 4.

Making the finals is possible, but it will be a long, long time until Hawthorn will be truly relevant again.
They should make the finals this year after recruiting Coniglio and Whitfield in the off season....

Oh wait they only got Frost hahaha
 

Gralin

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Hawthorn are a middle of the road old team with limited prospects.

They haven't won a final since 2015.

So this year, if the trend continues it will be 6 years in a row without winning finals.

Combine this with an ageing list, with limited star power, and add a strategy of high risk veteran injured players = trouble.

Hawthorn are much more likely to finish in the bottom 4, than the top 4.

Making the finals is possible, but it will be a long, long time until Hawthorn will be truly relevant again.
Your math seems to be off on a couple of things there.
 

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