Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[Vindicater]

we did use 2 first round draft picks in 2015. One of which was delisted, while the other was traded for Wingard.
According to AFL rules, AFL clubs have to use at least 2 first round draft picks every 4 years, otherwise they face restrictions on trading.

I have read from people such as yourself about the elite end of the draft. To me the elite end is within the top 5 picks or so. So seeing that Hawthorn has not finished bottom 5 since 2006, are you suggesting that we trade players out in order to get into the elite end of the draft? If that is the case, then that logic is flawed, as in order to achieve that, your giving away known quality, for something that is unknown. That makes zero sense.


using your logic, Essendon failed by ignoring a potential trade for 2 top 10 picks for a player that could leave next year via free agency next year, for an end of first round pick. Essendon also used 2 first rounders last year to bring in Dylan Shiel. So will Essendon succeed by ignoring the elite end of the draft as well, or are they also going to fail?

I think you take this thread too seriously mate.

 

[Vindicater]

So success is judged in 4 year windows now is it? If that's the case how has Dodoro managed to survive 15 years without a finals win and kept his job? Surely the Essendon board is just waiting for his list building strategy to bear fruit. Perhaps you could give us more than 4 years to complete our rebuild? Geelong have had 8. Essendon nearly 20. The strategy is still largely one of 'ignore the elite end of the draft' - on draft day. Obviously we don't ignore it during trade period, having brought in our second #1 pick in as many years during the recent trade period.

Dodoro is actually the poster boy for ignoring the elite end of the draft. This trade period, he turned down two picks in the elite end of the draft in favour of keeping a washed up, broken down hack who has fallen out of love with the club his old man played for.

I agree with you that Essendon have failed for a long time.

This thread is about Hawthorn failing to win.

 

[Macpotata]

Hawkers gonna Hawk

 

[Macpotata]

GWS x 2 - ruined their top 4 hopes
WCE - On their home deck ****ing up their top 4 hopes in the last round of the season
Geelong
Collingwood


2019 was a success and they almost made the 8. As I predicted, had a massive say in how the 8 panned out and they certainly did.


I am now a Hawthorn advocate and will coin the phrase - Hawkers gonna Hawk.




Happy Festivus.

 

[Marcel Proust]

If we were tankig we wouldnt have beaten richmonds superior team in 2004. We were just bereft of fit talls

hawks did tank a lot. beating richmond doesn't prove otherwise, the tigers were just not very good.

more so when NBrown when down with the snapped leg ('05)

Those listed teams had trouble competing with hawthorn head to head. Sure some players missed but so did Mitchell

No hawk poster is denying they are in transition, its just not all agree witht he implied ‘cures’ and strategies

Most amusing is people suggesting the hawks need more early picks, yet success has denied them this. The same posters then predict years at the bottom for the hawks, even though they were implying this is neccesary anyway.

In truth all clubs mix trades with drafting. The saints seem to be implying thir rebuild is over and they are topping up.
In truth no clubs are concerned at the st kilda threat

hawks had troubles winning 11 games

Bud only has 2 mate.

I know but he was fairly influential in building them up into a force

First time I've looked at the main board in months and this thread is still at the top!!

It warms my heart to see so many oppo fans are so concerned about our club.

personally i am more concerned with the giants, wce, collingwood etc.

the hawthorn situation is an interesting case study of trying to top up without an elite young core like has been discussed for 300 odd pages

 

[stfan]

As of this moment GWS, Collingwood, North Melbourne, Melbourne and West Coast all have an older list than Hawthorn! Age is just a number. Go and take a look at some of the champions winners across other sports with teams who had an old roster/list.

OUT
Roughead 32
Birchall 31
Schoenmakers 29
Pittonet 23
Puopolo 32
Langford 27
Brand 25
Mirra 28
Minchington 26
Mohr 31
Miles 23

Point is though when you are old you are not likely to get better.

So if you old and top 4 then ok.

Old and not playing finals is not a good state to be in.

 

[parsons nose]

Seems to me the brains trust feel all the pieces are now in place. Hence the retaining of Our first round pick this year. Have to go back a few years to find a time when we had a pick lower than this years.

 

[TylerDurden]

Seems to me the brains trust feel all the pieces are now in place. Hence the retaining of Our first round pick this year. Have to go back a few years to find a time when we had a pick lower than this years.

2011.

 

[parsons nose]

2011.

Actually 2006, Mitch Thorp, lol. I hope we do better than that this time around.

 

[WWSD]

Point is though when you are old you are not likely to get better.

So if you old and top 4 then ok.

Old and not playing finals is not a good state to be in.

Hawthorn won’t go into 2020 as the oldest side though. Not sure how many times this has to be repeated on here. Go and take a look at the best & fariest result. Five of the top six players are under 25!

Best 22 players in 2020 that aren’t 30

Mitchell 26
Impey 24
Worpel 20
Sicily 24
Lewis 20
O’Meara 25
Scrimshaw 21
Hardwick 22
Howe 23
Gunston 27
Wingard 26
Scully 28
Breust 28
Shiels 28
Patton 26
Frost 26
Hanrahan 21

Yep, old.

 

[philohk]

Yeah, this list age stuff is honestly rubbish and anyone who looks at it as valuable isn't really worth debating. I actually took the time to work it out and we're 24.3 after the delistings and retirements of players who in general had no impact (Rough excepted, but he was forced out of the side, so losing him won't make us worse). 24.3 puts us at about 5th oldest. If we draft three 18.5-year-olds we'll be 23.9 at draft time, and back to 24.3 by the time the season starts - so younger than this year and with an improved list.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Yeah, this list age stuff is honestly rubbish and anyone who looks at it as valuable isn't really worth debating. I actually took the time to work it out and we're 24.3 after the delistings and retirements of players who in general had no impact (Rough excepted, but he was forced out of the side, so losing him won't make us worse). 24.3 puts us at about 5th oldest. If we draft three 18.5-year-olds we'll be 23.9 at draft time, and back to 24.3 by the time the season starts - so younger than this year and with an improved list.

You can can call it rubbish but that fact remains the hawks are largely rolling our all the old heads to try find some wins, no enough to plays finals of course:

McEvoy - 30yoa - 19games
Strattion - 30 - 19
Smith - 31 - 19
Frawley - 31 - 18
Henderson - 31 - 22
Puopolo - 32 - 22
Burgoyne - 37 - 18

Hawthorn won’t go into 2020 as the oldest side though. Not sure how many times this has to be repeated on here. Go and take a look at the best & fariest result. Five of the top six players are under 25!

Best 22 players in 2020 that aren’t 30

Mitchell 26
Impey 24
Worpel 20
Sicily 24
Lewis 20
O’Meara 25
Scrimshaw 21
Hardwick 22
Howe 23
Gunston 27
Wingard 26
Scully 28
Breust 28
Shiels 28
Patton 26
Frost 26
Hanrahan 21

Yep, old.

Its yet to be seen how good Hanrahan, Patton, Hardwick, Scimshaw etc. actually are or are going to be alot of many of that group.

Hawks fans seem to love typing - "the best & fariest result. Five of the top six players are under 25!" - it sounds nice but its overlooking the fact hawthorn are currently a mediocre side hence the b/f means very little.

 

[WWSD]

You can can call it rubbish but that fact remains the hawks are largely rolling our all the old heads to try find some wins, no enough to plays finals of course:

McEvoy - 30yoa - 19games
Strattion - 30 - 19
Smith - 31 - 19
Frawley - 31 - 18
Henderson - 31 - 22
Puopolo - 32 - 22
Burgoyne - 37 - 18



Its yet to be seen how good Hanrahan, Patton, Hardwick, Scimshaw etc. actually are or are going to be alot of many of that group.

Hawks fans seem to love typing - "the best & fariest result. Five of the top six players are under 25!" - it sounds nice but its overlooking the fact hawthorn are currently a mediocre side hence the b/f means very little.

Burgoyne, Frawley and Puopolo will all likely retire at the end of 2020 further bringing down that average age.

Mediocre sides don’t beat GWS (twice), West Coast, Geelong and Collingwood all without Mitchell. How quickly some forget.

Ask youself this question without looking at the age barrier. Do Hawthorn actually play like an old team? No they don’t! What the Hawks list needs is more A-grade young talent.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Mediocre sides don’t beat GWS (twice), West Coast, Geelong and Collingwood all without Mitchell. How quickly some forget.

Hawthorn didnt win enough games to make finals. What term would you like to use? Average? Middling? there is only 18 teams and after a home and away football season the hawks were not in the best 8.

even with the top5 of the b and f taken into consideration

Hawthorn lost to the like of St Kilda, quick to forget indeed

 

[WWSD]

Hawthorn didnt win enough games to make finals. What term would you like to use? Average? Middling? there is only 18 teams and after a home and away football season the hawks were not in the best 8.

even with the top5 of the b and f taken into consideration

Hawthorn lost to the like of St Kilda, quick to forget indeed

Add Mitchell in those games and Hawthorn beat St Kilda, Melbourne, Western Bulldogs and West Coast.

With a number of players who will be better for the run and a host of players in their prime like Shiels, Breust, Gunston, Wingard, Mitchell, O’Meara, Sicily etc who are all likely to have a better output compared to last year, plus a guaranteed easy fixture considering the ladder position from the previous year and it’s hello finals in 2020!

I swear I will come back on here and bump this thread.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Add Mitchell in those games and Hawthorn beat St Kilda, Melbourne, Western Bulldogs and West Coast.

We will see where the Hawks finish in 2020, with a number of players who will be better for the run ie Wingard, O’Meara, Scrimshaw etc, plus a number of players in their prime like Shiels, Breust, Gunston who are all likely to have a better output compared to last year, plus a guaranteed easy fixture considering the ladder position from the previous year and it’s hello finals in 2020.

I swear I will come back on here and bump this thread.

Everyone gets injuries however.

Just dont forget to bump it if hawthorn finish 12th

 

[WWSD]

Everyone gets injuries however.

Just dont forget to bump it if hawthorn finish 12th

If Hawthorn finish 12th, then they’ll have a top 7 draft pick and also get Conor Downie who is touted as a top 5 draft pick as the NGA player who the Hawks will get discounted. Which is defeating the premise of this thread.

 

[Marcel Proust]

If Hawthorn finish 12th, then they’ll have a top 7 draft pick and also get Conor Downie who is touted as a top 5 draft pick as the NGA player who the Hawks will get discounted. Which is defeating the premise of this thread.

but there is still no evidence hawthorn will be good by 2021 or 2022; already got 7 blokes 30+ playing most game this season

by that time Gunston, Scully, Shiels, Bruest etc. might be slowing down too... will be interesting to see how it unfolds. Im not as confident as you

 

[Roddy]

I get 09 and 10 déjà vu every time I come into this thread, Hawk haters saying the exact same thing.....

 

[Marcel Proust]

I get 09 and 10 déjà vu every time I come into this thread, Hawk haters saying the exact same thing.....

Hawks 2009:

30: -
29: Dew, Croad
28: -
27: Bateman

the hawks had 3 players aged over 26. This season the hawks got about 140 games out of the blokes in the 30/over age bracket.


just quietly too they had not ignored the elite end of the draft at that time:

Hodge - 24
Lewis - 22
Roughead - 22
Franklin - 22
Birchill - 21
Rioli - 19


'09: youngest side, 2nd least experienced.
'19: Hawthorn are now the oldest team in the league (according to 'draftguru' anyway)*

 

[matey]

During his 3rd transition/rebuild at the club Clarko on a number of occasions in the last half of the season said that the Hawks were tracking well and thinks they will be in a position to challenge for silverware again in the near future. Doubt the great mans words, vision and think he talks crap if you like.

And yeah it’s happening while ignoring the elite end of the draft.

 

[Marcel Proust]

During his 3rd transition/rebuild at the club Clarko on a number of occasions in the last half of the season said that the Hawks were tracking well and thinks they will be in a position to challenge for silverware again in the near future. Doubt the great mans words, vision and think he talks crap if you like.

And yeah it’s happening while ignoring the elite end of the draft.

He also said he was facing mental health issues.

I worry for Clarko being such a legend but driven and a winner -the realities of the cyclical nature of football (various equalization policies the afl have) and if he can overcome these natural barriers. He is a bit old school too

if he does win a 5th itll be greater than any of the first 4 imo given the degree of difficulty rebuilding from the middle likes he is attempting

 

[philohk]

You can can call it rubbish but that fact remains the hawks are largely rolling our all the old heads to try find some wins, no enough to plays finals of course:

McEvoy - 30yoa - 19games
Strattion - 30 - 19
Smith - 31 - 19
Frawley - 31 - 18
Henderson - 31 - 22
Puopolo - 32 - 22
Burgoyne - 37 - 18



Its yet to be seen how good Hanrahan, Patton, Hardwick, Scimshaw etc. actually are or are going to be alot of many of that group.

Hawks fans seem to love typing - "the best & fariest result. Five of the top six players are under 25!" - it sounds nice but its overlooking the fact hawthorn are currently a mediocre side hence the b/f means very little.

Way to miss the point

 

[Marcel Proust]

Way to miss the point

I thought your point "Yeah, this list age stuff is honestly rubbish" was a bad one and wrong. Maybe others do too and thats why its at 300+ pages

 

[hk89]

I agree with you that Essendon have failed for a long time.

This thread is about Hawthorn failing to win.

I thought it was about assessing if Hawthorn could succeed while largely ignoring the elite end of the draft. While it is true that for Hawthorn, not winning a flag in a four year period is a failure in terms of our average flag hit rate since I was born, I do think it is probably a little too soon to assess the overall strategy.

Do you seriously think list strategies can be assessed in 4 year chunks? Lucky we won that flag in 2008, otherwise you'd have said in 2010 that Hawthorn had failed with their 'hit the draft' strategy in the early to mid 2000's based on the window you are assessing in, despite being on the edge of a 3-peat at that point. I think you probably need around an 8 year window to fully assess a trading/drafting strategy. Perhaps a little less when your strategy is trading in 23-26 year elite talent, but I think we've still got at least a couple of years to assess the impact of that strategy before success/failure can be called.