Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[Slysh]

You need top 5 draft picks to get players like Franklin , Dustin Martin, Hodge, Whitfield, Jeremy Cameron, Josh Kelly, Clayton Oliver and Tom Lynch ect otherwise you have to be lucky.

Nah that is legit just not true, tons and tons of elite players fell outside of the top 5.

 

[Socrates2]

Nah that is legit just not true, tons and tons of elite players fell outside of the top 5.

You won't find the next Luke Hodge at pick 40.

 

[Hawk Dork]

You won't find the next Luke Hodge at pick 40.

you wont find the next Luke Hodge at pick 1 either

 

[Slysh]

You won't find the next Luke Hodge at pick 40.

Maybe not but you can find the next Sam Mitchell

 

[matey]

1. Cameron Rayner 2. Andrew Brayshaw. 3. Paddy Dow. 4. Luke Davies-Uniacke 5. Adam Cerra 45. James Worpel

Give me James Worpel out of those top 5 picks in the same draft any day of the week. Don’t think any of those top 5 picks have even achieved a top 10 B&F at their respective clubs.

Elite end draft picks is the way to go yeah ..... sure. Gary Ablett jr probably the best over the last 15 years says hi.

 

[Slysh]

1. Cameron Rayner 2. Andrew Brayshaw. 3. Paddy Dow. 4. Luke Davies-Uniacke 5. Adam Cerra 45. James Worpel
View attachment 776656
Give me James Worpel out of those top 5 picks in the same draft any day of the week. Don’t think any of those top 5 picks have even achieved a top 10 B&F at their respective clubs.

Elite end draft picks is the way to go yeah ..... sure. Gary Ablett jr probably the best over the last 15 years says hi.

B... but... He doesn't have a high ceiling though

 

[matey]

B... but... He doesn't have a high ceiling though

And he’s too old!

 

[Pessimistic]

You need top 5 draft picks to get players like Franklin , Dustin Martin, Hodge, Whitfield, Jeremy Cameron, Josh Kelly, Clayton Oliver and Tom Lynch ect otherwise you have to be lucky.

We went better when we lost franklin. Hodge pick 1 but traded for. Hawks finished 4th that year. Lynch free agent.

Four of your list dont even have a premiership yet, and lynch had to move to get one.
Lynch was long term injured before moving too, so ‘risky’ in some posters eyes

 

[Pessimistic]

I still maintain the ‘hard rebuild’ may have false data because the majority success via that route was the 2001 draft. Yet hawthorn werent even bottom four that year.

Carlton had three successive drafts with first pick....donuts
Gold coast.....rebuilding again

Etc etc

 

[Slysh]

I still maintain the ‘hard rebuild’ may have false data because the majority success via that route was the 2001 draft. Yet hawthorn werent even bottom four that year.

Carlton had three successive drafts with first pick....donuts
Gold coast.....rebuilding again

Etc etc

Yeah and you can add in Dees down the bottom for most of a decade, Lions took forever to get it right. All i hear is that the Hawks rebuild is 'risky' yet bottoming out and rebuilding is really bloody hard and just as risky. No easy way to do it.

 

[Socrates2]

I still maintain the ‘hard rebuild’ may have false data because the majority success via that route was the 2001 draft. Yet hawthorn werent even bottom four that year.

Carlton had three successive drafts with first pick....donuts
Gold coast.....rebuilding again

Etc etc

In last years draft ,the top 6 picks are guaranteed to be excellent players, and one of them could be the next big thing. Therefore any club who didn't have a top 6 pick is behind, it's moneyball.

 

[Pessimistic]

Guaranteed?

Opinion

Just looking at 2018. Compensation pick for lynch? Would have been nice to get a top 6 for franklin. Could have had the bont in the brown n gold

 

[Slysh]

In last years draft ,the top 6 picks are guaranteed to be excellent players, and one of them could be the next big thing. Therefore any club who didn't have a top 6 pick is behind, it's moneyball.

Again that is just wrong... So Max King who is yet to play a game coming back from a serious injury is guaranteed to make it?

No Draftee is every guaranteed to make it but even if they were that is only any good if you have a top 6 pick. The Draft has countless busts at the top end and banking the future of a club on one 18 year old kid is about as risky as it gets.

 

[Marcel Proust]

I still maintain the ‘hard rebuild’ may have false data because the majority success via that route was the 2001 draft. Yet hawthorn werent even bottom four that year.

Carlton had three successive drafts with first pick....donuts
Gold coast.....rebuilding again

Etc etc

gws?

 

[Socrates2]

Again that is just wrong... So Max King who is yet to play a game coming back from a serious injury is guaranteed to make it?

No Draftee is every guaranteed to make it but even if they were that is only any good if you have a top 6 pick. The Draft has countless busts at the top end and banking the future of a club on one 18 year old kid is about as risky as it gets.

You seem to think that Hawthorn's recruiters are superior and that they can get pick 1 at pick 25, the maths doesn't add up. Over the long term, not having high draft picks will cost you.
Richmond have done well to get Lynch ,Stack and Pickett for nothing, but that won't happen every year obviously.

 

[Slysh]

You seem to think that Hawthorn's recruiters are superior and that they can get pick 1 at pick 25, the maths doesn't add up. Over the long term, not having high draft picks will cost you.
Richmond have done well to get Lynch ,Stack and Pickett for nothing, but that won't happen every year obviously.

No i don't think that, i think you are overrating pick 1.

2018 - Walsh star
2017 - Rayner?
2016 - McGrath eh solid player
2015 - Weitering Good player and getting better
2014 - McCartin bust (not entirely his fault)
2013 - Boyd bust
2012 - Whitfield Star
2011 - Patton good player when fit but not lived up the the number 1 hype
2010 - Swallow Very good player, good leader but not a star
2009 - Scully again a good player but not a superstar
2008 - Watts - Bust

We should tank for a chance at those names?

Not many on that list i would want to be tanking for a full season for.

 

[Socrates2]

No i don't think that, i think you are overrating pick 1.

2018 - Walsh star
2017 - Rayner?
2016 - McGrath eh solid player
2015 - Weitering Good player and getting better
2014 - McCartin bust (not entirely his fault)
2013 - Boyd bust
2012 - Whitfield Star
2011 - Patton good player when fit but not lived up the the number 1 hype
2010 - Swallow Very good player, good leader but not a star
2009 - Scully again a good player but not a superstar
2008 - Watts - Bust

We should tank for a chance at those names?

Not many on that list i would want to be tanking for a full season for.

Fair point ,but the higher the pick the better the chance of getting a champion. If we didn't get Dustin Martin at 3, who knows what would've happened.

 

[Slysh]

Fair point ,but the higher the pick the better the chance of getting a champion. If we didn't get Dustin Martin at 3, who knows what would've happened.

Well sure i would love top Draft picks but to get them you need to be a bad team for a full year and hope that the kid you take ends up making it. Miss out and you set the rebuild back 12 months just off that one pick.

For every Dustin Martin you get a Tom Scully and Jack Trengove the picks before them and Anthony Morabito the pick after him (poor guy). Also have Rohan at pick 6, Butcher 8, Andrew Moore 9.

 

[Socrates2]

Well sure i would love top Draft picks but to get them you need to be a bad team for a full year and hope that the kid you take ends up making it. Miss out and you set the rebuild back 12 months just off that one pick.

For every Dustin Martin you get a Tom Scully and Jack Trengove the picks before them and Anthony Morabito the pick after him (poor guy). Also have Rohan at pick 6, Butcher 8, Andrew Moore 9.

I think the top 5 or 6 picks are still gold because if you can get a Martin, Bontempell, Macrae ,Lynch, Boyd ect ,it can win you premierships.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Well sure i would love top Draft picks but to get them you need to be a bad team for a full year and hope that the kid you take ends up making it. Miss out and you set the rebuild back 12 months just off that one pick.

For every Dustin Martin you get a Tom Scully and Jack Trengove the picks before them and Anthony Morabito the pick after him (poor guy). Also have Rohan at pick 6, Butcher 8, Andrew Moore 9.

if you push it back to picks 1 to 3 you get Tarantos, Mccluggages, Rougheads, Judds, Balls etc.

you are right sometimes top picks flop but they definitely help a bit generally. The hawthorn team that won 4 flags had a fair bit of elite end of draft firepower as its core.

Scully was a very good player prior to the injury stuff

 

[Slysh]

I think the top 5 or 6 picks are still gold because if you can get a Martin, Bontempell, Macrae ,Lynch, Boyd ect ,it can win you premierships.

It helps but

Fyfe at 20
Cripps at 13
Kelly at pick 24
Gawn at pick 34

You can get those guys later in the Draft as well without being terrible. I am not disputing that the higher the pick the more likely you are to find a player, just that it far from a guarantee like trading for a ready made player that has proven to be an AFL player.

If you can bring in Mitchell and O'meara in one trade period and still strike gold with Mitch Lewis at pick 76 who is one of the better young key forwards in the game you get the best of both worlds.

 

[Pessimistic]

You seem to think that Hawthorn's recruiters are superior and that they can get pick 1 at pick 25, the maths doesn't add up. Over the long term, not having high draft picks will cost you.
Richmond have done well to get Lynch ,Stack and Pickett for nothing, but that won't happen every year obviously.

No I think hawthorn weights development more. Id rate them better than most for getting development out of recruits. Especially if you go back to 2010.
The draft process was concieved in the US, where the coolege systems gives you almost absolute certainty in the draft. Not all paradigms from there translate to here.

In some ways our system is like packing off the best student applicants to the worst universities. It wouldnt happen in the real world
Some sneeringly call it socialism but if theres one thing the soviets could do, its identify the best athletes and develop them

 

[Slysh]

if you push it back to picks 1 to 3 you get Tarantos, Mccluggages, Rougheads, Judds, Balls etc.

you are right sometimes top picks flop but they definitely help a bit generally. The hawthorn team that won 4 flags had a fair bit of elite end of draft firepower as its core.

Scully was a very good player prior to the injury stuff

I mean i am not disputing that you can get great players at the top end of the Draft but in between most of those picks are busts. Or decent role players that are not worthy of those selections. I would love to have high end picks every year because clearly you get the pick of the most talented kids, but i am not sure that blowing up a list and full on rebuilding aiming for spoons and hoping a bunch of kids end up as stars is definitely the best way to go about it.

 

[Socrates2]

It helps but

Fyfe at 20
Cripps at 13
Kelly at pick 24
Gawn at pick 34

You can get those guys later in the Draft as well without being terrible. I am not disputing that the higher the pick the more likely you are to find a player, just that it far from a guarantee like trading for a ready made player that has proven to be an AFL player.

If you can bring in Mitchell and O'meara in one trade period and still strike gold with Mitch Lewis at pick 76 who is one of the better young key forwards in the game you get the best of both worlds.

What chance are Hawthorn to do this though ?
Fyfe at 20
Cripps at 13
Kelly at pick 24
Gawn at pick 34
It's a long shot.

 

[Slysh]

What chance are Hawthorn to do this though ?
Fyfe at 20
Cripps at 13
Kelly at pick 24
Gawn at pick 34
It's a long shot.

Of course it is as was Lewis at 76 and Worpel 45 etc. You said that you need top 5 picks to get players of those caliber, i am just proving they are available later it is just about making sure you nail those selections and develop the talent.

Draft picks are a lottery the higher the Draft pick the more chance you have of winning the jack pot. You are also investing a hell of a lot more in to the lottery and if you strike out and miss than you lose big time.