Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[TylerDurden]

........
Thats not what the argument is, it specifically questioning the draft. Trading is an entirely different list management debate.

But we're still getting players in from the elite and of the draft. If they're drafted or traded, who gives a s**t?

 

[juss]

But we're still getting players in from the elite and of the draft. If they're drafted or traded, who gives a s**t?

Because the cost is different, the age is different, some of the players mentioned were injury discounts or players other teams let go. They also arent anywhere near elite, and seeing them perform its unlikely.

Patton was a number 1 pick, thats not the same as a number 1 pick drafted now.

 

[spudmaster]

Because the cost is different, the age is different, some of the players mentioned were injury discounts or players other teams let go. They also arent anywhere near elite, and seeing them perform its unlikely.

Patton was a number 1 pick, thats not the same as a number 1 pick drafted now.

You're right! A number 1 pick drafted now may never step foot onto the field for an AFL game.

 

[juss]

You're right! A number 1 pick drafted now may never step foot onto the field for an AFL game.

There's no point debating anymore. Enjoy the Patton and Scully led dynasty.

 

[TylerDurden]

Because the cost is different, the age is different, some of the players mentioned were injury discounts or players other teams let go. They also arent anywhere near elite, and seeing them perform its unlikely.

Patton was a number 1 pick, thats not the same as a number 1 pick drafted now.

You're right. The cost is different. We paid future 4th picks for both.

 

[Furn2]

Because the cost is different, the age is different, some of the players mentioned were injury discounts or players other teams let go. They also arent anywhere near elite, and seeing them perform its unlikely.

Patton was a number 1 pick, thats not the same as a number 1 pick drafted now.

what percentage of kids drafted do you think end up elite ? even in the top end its very low.

 

[Nugett]

........
Thats not what the argument is, it specifically questioning the draft. Trading is an entirely different list management debate.

You do realise that you can use drat picks to trade right?

 

[Nugett]

Because the cost is different, the age is different, some of the players mentioned were injury discounts or players other teams let go. They also arent anywhere near elite, and seeing them perform its unlikely.

Patton was a number 1 pick, thats not the same as a number 1 pick drafted now.

just like Matt Rowe while being a #1 draft pick won’t be the #1 draft pick in five years time?

 

[TallyHawk]

........
Thats not what the argument is, it specifically questioning the draft. Trading is an entirely different list management debate.

We really should've followed the Pelchin StKilda model of loading up on as many top 25 picks as possible


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[Slysh]

If Scully and Patton are so bad and so awful could you imagine if we blew up our list, went right down the bottom of the ladder and took them at number 1?

Imagine that an entire year of getting smashed and the reward being 2 players that aren't any good. Wonder what that would do to a rebuild.

 

[Pessimistic]

While there has been a lot of trades recently, a ‘different rebuild’ if you like. I’m at a loss to see real glaring holes in the list now. Although you would take quality player if you found one. This list is going to be pretty much it when the peak comes in 2022 (before another rebuild starts)

players who will probably have left in 2022: Burgoyne Puopolo Henderson. Replaced in best 22 by Maginness Walker and Impey

I see Frawley smith and Stratton as quite durable and still playing a role, but needing replacements after 2022. Frost Hartley an Kosi would be candidates for Frawley and strattons roles, with Morrison or a yet unknown player for smith, perhaps Jiath, golds or Jones

interesting I suggested replacing players who came 50:50 from trades and drafting with candidates 30:70 from trades and drafting

we are talking mostly role players here, with Frawley Stratton smith and Burgoyne the most obviously hard talents to replace

if there’s no role for Jackson Ross by then, expect other clubs to come knocking. Too much talent to ignore

of course some players leave earlier and some later. Rioli left while young and Henderson was 2nd in the bnf. And the peak at 2022? It may fall short of premiership or even grand final, but the List is pretty much set till then

 

[juss]

We really should've followed the Pelchin StKilda model of loading up on as many top 25 picks as possible

Or the model that got Clarksons success in the first place where his flags were built off core champion players picked 1, 2, 5, 7, 12, 14.

Not sure this new model is going to acquire that level of talent that he needed to do what they did.

 

[Gralin]

Or the model that got Clarksons success in the first place where his flags were built off core champion players picked 1, 2, 5, 7, 12, 14.

Not sure this new model is going to acquire that level of talent that he needed to do what they did.

You do realise that all of our flags under Clarkson included key players that were traded in from other clubs yeah?

 

[Pessimistic]

Or the model that got Clarksons success in the first place where his flags were built off core champion players picked 1, 2, 5, 7, 12, 14.

Not sure this new model is going to acquire that level of talent that he needed to do what they did.

they won three flags in a row.if hawthorn won just one flag in the next few years is that a fail then?

 

[liam123]

I personally can’t see how this tactic will result in a flag. To me it will result in a middle of the road team for the foreseeable future

 

[Bulldog1954]

You do realise that all of our flags under Clarkson included key players that were traded in from other clubs yeah?

I don’t think anyone can doubt that Hawthorn traded well and bought in players that were crucial to their premierships. But there was a core of super talented players the Hawks drafted with high picks, which were then complemented by savvy trades. The era of success doesn’t happen without drafting Hodge, Roughy, Franklin and Lewis.

Hawthorn doesn’t have anywhere near the same level of drafted talent as then, the trades will keep Hawthorn a good side, but I think the question marks on whether it will bring Hawthorn right back to the top again are reasonable.

 

[Gralin]

I don’t think anyone can doubt that Hawthorn traded well and bought in players that were crucial to their premierships. But there was a core of super talented players the Hawks drafted with high picks, which were then complemented by savvy trades. The era of success doesn’t happen without drafting Hodge, Roughy, Franklin and Lewis.

Hawthorn doesn’t have anywhere near the same level of drafted talent as then, the trades will keep Hawthorn a good side, but I think the question marks on whether it will bring Hawthorn right back to the top again are reasonable.

Doesn't happen without trading in Gibson, Burgoyne, Hale and Lake either.
Doubtful we'd win 2008 without trading for Dew, Gilham, Croad and Goo.

We filled needs in the right age profile to make the whole team stronger.

Club is still doing that

 

[Gavin Excell]

Doesn't happen without trading in Gibson, Burgoyne, Hale and Lake either.
Doubtful we'd win 2008 without trading for Dew, Gilham, Croad and Goo.

We filled needs in the right age profile to make the whole team stronger.

Club is still doing that

Yes agree you need both
To win flags you need talented lists that are usually made up of quality acquired through the draft supplemented by trading in for gaps

 

[Gralin]

Yes agree you need both
To win flags you need talented lists that are usually made up of quality acquired through the draft supplemented by trading in for gaps

It makes sense to target your gaps via trading because you can bring in a player you know is ready and capable of the role based on exposed form.
It also makes sense to draft for future gaps. If you can get someone that might replace an older player I a few years then you've got time to grow them into the role

You'll get the odd kid like Worpel for us, Stack for the Tigers etc that come in and play a role from very early on but most need more than a preseason or two.

3-4 years in the system and 50 games seems to be a good starting point. So what do you do if you've got half a team but don't have 3-4 years to wait for the other half to develop/not to mention your chances of finding 11 players in 1-2 drafts to fill those roles?

13/23 that played more than 10 games last year for the Hawks were all drafted by the club. It's not like we are a team of trades.

 

[Furn2]

Or the model that got Clarksons success in the first place where his flags were built off core champion players picked 1, 2, 5, 7, 12, 14.

Not sure this new model is going to acquire that level of talent that he needed to do what they did.

different era, draft picks where undervalued and there where priority picks. Also we were already on the bottom so had no alternative.

We used 8 top 10 picks and another 9 in top 25 to get those 6 gun players. That's 8+ years in the wilderness nowdays to get those same picks, maybe a couple less if you trade out but You're not getting into the top 10 with older players anyway.

 

[TylerDurden]

different era, draft picks where undervalued and there where priority picks. Also we were already on the bottom so had no alternative.

We used 8 top 10 picks and another 9 in top 25 to get those 6 gun players. That's 8+ years in the wilderness nowdays to get those same picks, maybe a couple less if you trade out but You're not getting into the top 10 with older players anyway.

Plus Ellis, Thorp, Dowler all top 10 pick spuds. Aint no guarantees as they say.

 

[Bulldog1954]

Doesn't happen without trading in Gibson, Burgoyne, Hale and Lake either.
Doubtful we'd win 2008 without trading for Dew, Gilham, Croad and Goo.

We filled needs in the right age profile to make the whole team stronger.

Club is still doing that

Agree that it doesn’t. But Hawthorn don’t have the same level of stars that they drafted as they did back then. The traded players now aren’t being added to a core of stars putting them over the top like they were before.

If Hawthorn had have traded out of the first two rounds of the 2004, 2005 and 2006 drafts like they did in 2015, 2016 and 2017, there’s no golden era. You need both.

 

[TallyHawk]

Or the model that got Clarksons success in the first place where his flags were built off core champion players picked 1, 2, 5, 7, 12, 14.

Not sure this new model is going to acquire that level of talent that he needed to do what they did.

Let's just ignore where Jaeger, Jono, Chad, Scullz, Scrimshaw were drafted let alone acknowledge Mitchell, Worpel, Hardwick, & Lewis as draft bargains.


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[Gralin]

Agree that it doesn’t. But Hawthorn don’t have the same level of stars that they drafted as they did back then. The traded players now aren’t being added to a core of stars putting them over the top like they were before.

If Hawthorn had have traded out of the first two rounds of the 2004, 2005 and 2006 drafts like they did in 2015, 2016 and 2017, there’s no golden era. You need both.

But in those years we weren't winning flags.
We didn't have 3 picks inside the top 10 in 2014. Be we were back to back premiers.

How are we meant to go to the draft like we did then when the draft isn't even the same?

 

[Gralin]

Or the model that got Clarksons success in the first place where his flags were built off core champion players picked 1, 2, 5, 7, 12, 14.

Not sure this new model is going to acquire that level of talent that he needed to do what they did.

No. The model Clarko built his success on was needing a certain number of A grade players on the team and building around that with role players.

Back when he came in you could only get those players via the draft. So he traded out blokes that weren't in the age profile for picks and used those on a mixture of kids and second or third chance players in the preseason and rookie drafts.

He's still working on that model he just had more than one way to bring in A graders and role players now