Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[Pessimistic]

Lewis kicked 20 goals in 12 games and took 27 contested marks. Third year on the list, I believe he was drafted as a forward. Looked good in the mid to late part of 2019.

Naughton 32 in 23 with 53. Second year on the list, played in defence last year, bigger sample size. It's a lot harder to be a competition leader in something over a whole season than 5 or 10 games. Josh Kennedy has had some purple patches the last two years but hasn't been our best key forward or in the AA mix.

Similar averages for smallish sample sizes but Naughton has shown more with less time in the system. Plus a couple of BOGs gets fans excited.

he wouldn’t have had as many games at hawthorn

 

[Pessimistic]

Early picks are largely unavailable to most teams, but everyone gets one pick every 18. Success is largely unavailable to most teams, 18 teams, one premier and all that.

It's kind of the point of a draft/salary cap system, with the premise of the thread effectively being can a team circumvent said system. Draft exclusively outside the pointy end, no chance of succeeding no matter who you are. Trade picks for players a possibility, but every traded player skews the list profile upwards and compromises the salary cap to some degree. If you could trade pick 10-18 for an established star every year everyone would do it.

We had a top 5 pick in 2010. Since then it's been 23 (2011), 18 (2012), 6 (2013), 11 (2014), 21 (2015), 13 (2016), 13 (2017), 22 (2018), 15 (2019). So that's our decade of first round picks. Some used, some traded. In terms of performance in that period we are maybe top 5 or 6 say, not relevant to the next decade coming. Compare that to Gold Coast who have used 1-2, 2-3-6, 2 (traded), 4-7-9-10 in a four year period. In theory that's 10 young players better than we've been able to draft or trade for without giving up players, and in theory in a few years time they should have better list than we do. Etc.

They are all trying to do it. You say that’s the point of the salary cap - everyone gets a turn. But in the main, see how the clubs with the best systems rise to the top more
More than the ones who are divvying up all the early picks in the first round

I’m asserting that THAT orthodoxy (premiership clock..hard rebuild..whatever) is what’s being discredited

I’m asserting it seemed to work well for such as the hawks and cats is they decided to go hard atthe draft around 2001 when it was one of the best ever. that draft unbalanced the equalisation for a decade

not so much since

 

[Slysh]

Lewis kicked 20 goals in 12 games and took 27 contested marks. Third year on the list, I believe he was drafted as a forward. Looked good in the mid to late part of 2019.

Naughton 32 in 23 with 53. Second year on the list, played in defence last year, bigger sample size. It's a lot harder to be a competition leader in something over a whole season than 5 or 10 games. Josh Kennedy has had some purple patches the last two years but hasn't been our best key forward or in the AA mix.

Similar averages for smallish sample sizes but Naughton has shown more with less time in the system. Plus a couple of BOGs gets fans excited.

I am not saying they are dead equal on output because of similar numbers. Just disagree on the gap between them being overly large at this point in time.

 

[Gralin]

do you really think that it matters if it has been 5 or 6

I am pointing to the stars and all you can see is the moon lol

I mean I gave you a chance to walk it back so....

he wouldn’t have had as many games at hawthorn

I mean he might have

 

[Pessimistic]

Lol hawks Fans just come back from a decade in ‘the stars’ now taking a breather

its a bit rich for these types to now inform us hodge Mitchell Lewis rough Cyril are irreplaceable when they would have been in here like twisted little trolls potting them right throughout
And yet jack, rance, Cotchin dusty irreplaceable? No way, tigers have stacks (pun) of talent in reserve just you see

 

[matey]

Lewis kicked 20 goals in 12 games and took 27 contested marks. Third year on the list, I believe he was drafted as a forward. Looked good in the mid to late part of 2019.

Naughton 32 in 23 with 53. Second year on the list, played in defence last year, bigger sample size. It's a lot harder to be a competition leader in something over a whole season than 5 or 10 games. Josh Kennedy has had some purple patches the last two years but hasn't been our best key forward or in the AA mix.

Similar averages for smallish sample sizes but Naughton has shown more with less time in the system. Plus a couple of BOGs gets fans excited.

As long as Lewis is part of a collective unit that regularly kicks a higher score than the opposition ..... don’t really care how good an individual player is in a team sport.

 

[Pessimistic]

As long as Lewis is part of a collective unit that regularly kicks a higher score than the opposition ..... don’t really care how good an individual player is in a team sport.

‘six players over 30 goals has a nice ring to it. Of course there’d need to be a final or two

 

[Gralin]

‘six players over 30 goals has a nice ring to it. Of course there’d need to be a final or two

Some finals wins

 

[Gavin Excell]

I think Lewis has a load of potential but so too do a lot of young forwards elsewhere

 

[Gavin Excell]

They are all trying to do it. You say that’s the point of the salary cap - everyone gets a turn. But in the main, see how the clubs with the best systems rise to the top more
More than the ones who are divvying up all the early picks in the first round

I’m asserting that THAT orthodoxy (premiership clock..hard rebuild..whatever) is what’s being discredited

I’m asserting it seemed to work well for such as the hawks and cats is they decided to go hard atthe draft around 2001 when it was one of the best ever. that draft unbalanced the equalisation for a decade

not so much since

So when hawks cats go hard draft 2001 is that just luck then?

 

[Gralin]

So when hawks cats go hard draft 2001 is that just luck then?

Always an element. Lucky we picked Hodge and Mitchell. Not everyone at Hawks wanted those two on the day. We had other picks in that draft that didn't pan out
We were lucky in 2004 that we got Rough and Buddy, these days we'd get Rough only.

Hindsight is always 20/20 drafts are risk/reward scenarios, there is an element of gambling that appeals to some more than others

 

[Pessimistic]

So when hawks cats go hard draft 2001 is that just luck then?

better than normal draft. Didn’t need to be in early picks either Cats too. Who was excluded from 2001? Carlton

hawks didn’t luck out because they were bottom four. They were top four that year. Just took lots of picks traded for pick 1

 

[hawkman]

better than normal draft. Didn’t need to be in early picks either Cats too. Who was excluded from 2001? Carlton

hawks didn’t luck out because they were bottom four. They were top four that year. Just took lots of picks traded for pick 1

We did get lucky to find a Freo though. Not every day you can trade for pick 1

 

[hk89]

They probably were 3 or so years back

not now

2018 AAs were like 18 months ago right? Not still upset Gunston got in ahead of Hawkins? Our midfield was easily worst in the competition for the first half of the 2019 season which didn't make things easy for our forwards. Admittedly Gunston had a poor 2019, so I'd certainly not say he was currently the best in his position.

Breust's 2019 was down on his best, but most teams would kill for a small forward who can kick 30+ in a down year (especially without finals to pad the goal tally). Averages a smidgin under 2 goals a game for his career. Since Cyril retired and Betts went down hill, it is still arguable he's the best small forward in the competition if you consider more than a 1 year window. Players like Charlie Cameron definitely had better years, but Cameron has kicked 30+ once in his 6 year career, compared to Breust whose done it 9 times out of 9 seasons (and as a result Cameron averages 1.5 career goals a game compared to Breust's 1.9). Cameron needs a few more years outperforming Breust before he jumps ahead of him IMO (unless you favour flavour of the month selections for those type of labels, in which case, sure Cameron gets it in a canter for the 2019 season).

 

[hk89]

Again, miles off the point.

Of course they have quality players.

The question is if they (or anybody, I guess) can build a premiership team having taken so few early-round draftees.

The question in the thread title isn't going to be answered, because it is based on the false premise that Hawthorn has been ignoring the elite end of the draft. It simply hasn't been. For example , players we currently have on the list that were from the 2011 draft:
- O'Meara - pick 1 in the mini draft (a selection that GC traded pick 4 and another first rounder to get their hands on)
- Patton - Pick 1
- Wingard - Pick 6
- Mitchell - Pick 21 F/S (highly touted, and almost certainly top 10 without f/s)

2011 was a year our first pick was 33 (which we used to get 3 time premiership player Brad Hill).

That was just one draft year. Other early picks we've got in via trades that are currently on the list:

Scully - Pick 1
Scrimshaw - Pick 7

We have 11 first rounders on the list in 2020 (including JOM as a first rounder equivalent). As I've mentioned earlier, this is the same number we had in our GF day team in 2015.

This is not the profile of a team that is ignoring elite talent. Thread needs a new title, "Can Hawthorn succeed while largely trading in their elite talent, and hitting a few late rounders"? Would line up better with reality, and yes its still a question that hasn't been answered yet, the answer at the moment is "not so far". However it has only been 4 seasons since our last flag, so IMO we still deserve some time to build towards our next attempt before the current plan is deemed a failure.

 

[MightyHawks]

do you really think that it matters if it has been 5 or 6

I am pointing to the stars and all you can see is the moon lol

Who cares - your mob hasn't won a flag for 2 years

 

[Pessimistic]

The question in the thread title isn't going to be answered, because it is based on the false premise that Hawthorn has been ignoring the elite end of the draft. It simply hasn't been. For example , players we currently have on the list that were from the 2011 draft:
- O'Meara - pick 1 in the mini draft (a selection that GC traded pick 4 and another first rounder to get their hands on)
- Patton - Pick 1
- Wingard - Pick 6
- Mitchell - Pick 21 F/S (highly touted, and almost certainly top 10 without f/s)

2011 was a year our first pick was 33 (which we used to get 3 time premiership player Brad Hill).

That was just one draft year. Other early picks we've got in via trades that are currently on the list:

Scully - Pick 1
Scrimshaw - Pick 7

We have 11 first rounders on the list in 2020 (including JOM as a first rounder equivalent). As I've mentioned earlier, this is the same number we had in our GF day team in 2015.

This is not the profile of a team that is ignoring elite talent. Thread needs a new title, "Can Hawthorn succeed while largely trading in their elite talent, and hitting a few late rounders"? Would line up better with reality, and yes its still a question that hasn't been answered yet, the answer at the moment is "not so far". However it has only been 4 seasons since our last flag, so IMO we still deserve some time to build towards our next attempt before the current plan is deemed a failure.

2022 is seven years since 2015, which was seven years after 2008. Judge it then

 

[GhostofJimJess]

In what way? Daniel averaged 0.7 goals in his first year, and 0.7 goals in his 4th year. Cyril averaged 1.0 goals in his first year, and 1.5 in his 4th year, with two 40+ goal seasons over his career. I see no sign Daniel is building a trajectory to be comparable to Cyril, if anything, he's stagnating as the other poster mentioned. The only comparison I see at this point is that neither was able to make the most of his talent due to injury. If Daniel gets his body right for a few seasons in a row, he might start to progress towards Cyril levels, but he's a long way off now, and currently isn't moving towards closing the gap.

Perhaps I should've used "accumulation of work" rather than "trajectory". Daniel is the sort of player who cannot be measured by your supercoach numberrs although he has quite a few stats which reach into the elite bracket, such as pressure acts, turnovers inside F50 etc. You know, the sort of things that have contributed to premierships in a team where he epitomises the KPI's. Much like Cyril, in his day.

I didn't write the words "as good as Cyril", because he's not. I'm just hoping with his accumulation of work will make him somewhat comparable by careers end.

About 3-4 years ago I wrote on BigFooty that Shane Edwards, a player I'd previously been a bit critical of, was channeling Shaun Burgoyne (my absolute favourite non-Tiger player) with some of his performances. I had a number of Hawks fans jump down my throat, as if I'd said Sheds had surpassed Silk. Nothing of the sort. Similar to this situation.

Please don't tell me you're going with a straight goals per game average to compare them.

They are both their own players and it's not like Daniel isn't a talented young player worth watching who can do things to turn a game

He's players good footy in finals too. He's also only four years into his career.

And the post you quoted literally said he's got a fair way to go...

Well put Gralin, as usual.

 

[Pessimistic]

He has parts of his game where hes better than cyril.

 

[hk89]

Perhaps I should've used "accumulation of work" rather than "trajectory". Daniel is the sort of player who cannot be measured by your supercoach numberrs although he has quite a few stats which reach into the elite bracket, such as pressure acts, turnovers inside F50 etc. You know, the sort of things that have contributed to premierships in a team where he epitomises the KPI's. Much like Cyril, in his day.

Yes, 'trajectory' was the words I had issue with, it seemed to imply you were suggesting Daniel is producing increasingly impressive performances such that he was heading towards levels comparable to Cyril, while conceding that he still had a way to go. I don't a the trajectory.

I'm well aware of the mismatch between supercoach numbers and some players performances. Cyril was constantly criticised for low output because of his numbers. In some ways these criticisms were understandable. He was amazing when he touched the ball, so it was fair enough to speculate how much more amazing he could have been if he was touching it 25+ times a game instead of 15. Hawk fans rightly pointed to the intangible things he did when he didn't have the ball as well as the high quality of his possessions when he did, but its still a a pity his body didn't let him get further up the ground more often.

Daniel is similar in that his output is worth more than his numbers suggest, but I still don't see him do the magical as often as Cyril did, and the fact that he is only averaging 11.5 possessions a game across his career means he needs to be a good deal more special in what he
does with and without the ball to be considered comparable. A body of work at Daniel's current level will not do it. Accumulation of work isn't the main issue, its that he's not at the level of Cyril. He NEEDS a trajectory, and right now he hasn't shown one. He may show one, as like Cyril, injury has got in the way of
being the best player he can be so far, but he's still playing, still young, and still has time to get his body right, so who knows, maybe he will approach Cyril by the end of his career.

 

[Brunswick Trap King]

I hold grave concerns for Hawthorn this year after last night.

Could be a bottom 6 year. Hopefully Clarko can get something out of the list.

 

[parsons nose]

I hold grave concerns for Hawthorn this year after last night.

Could be a bottom 6 year. Hopefully Clarko can get something out of the list.

What was not to like?

 

[Gralin]

I hold grave concerns for Hawthorn this year after last night.

Could be a bottom 6 year. Hopefully Clarko can get something out of the list.

I'm really disappointed we couldn't come away with the four points

 

[Brunswick Trap King]

I'm really disappointed we couldn't come away with the four points

I sincerely hope you won't be saying that too often this year.

We should trust Clarko.

 

[Gralin]

I sincerely hope you won't be saying that too often this year.

We should trust Clarko.

I've got plenty of alternatives.
Couldn't get the chocolates
Didn't get a lick of the ice cream
Weren't able to put them away
Brave defeat.

I can rotate