Can Richmond still be a contender this season?

Where will Richmond finish at the end of the H&A season?

  • 1-4

    Votes: 26 19.8%
  • 5-8

    Votes: 60 45.8%
  • Miss Finals

    Votes: 45 34.4%

  • Total voters
    131
  • Poll closed .

Shazza_

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We could be full strength (with Rance) and only need to finish 5th or 6th and anything can happen.
with the week off after rd 23,

just need to blitz the qf, sf, pf, and granny

if anyone can do it we can ! easy peasy!
 

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Shazza_

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Finito...I'd rather close shop and play the youngsters...
Tank for a pick...
Not interested in busting our cotches, jr, Grimes, etc just to be the first side flicked out of the finals...
Rance, dusty, cotch, jr have done a power of work over the past years to keep us competitive and its finally caught up with them.
Imo flogged them all last year in trying to do b2b without proper player management.
**** just waiting for Grimes ham strings to ping...
imagine being one game off top spot in rd 7 with no clear standout teams and declaring your season over !
 
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Shazza_

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Can’t see us winning it tbh, might make finals but doubt we go far. You can’t be flogged by gws,pies and dogs like we have...they are all better sides at this point. Unfortunately injuries have crippled us but on a side note it’s good to see the young kids getting games.
dude we are 4-3 with cotch, rance , jack all injured and martin playing like a dud

hardly the end of the world. pies and cats havent even had an injury yet
 

Shazza_

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2017 was such a different feel to it though. Barring the Adelaide game (and the first half of that st kilda debacle at Etihad) we were ultra competitive! When we have lost this year we have gotten blown away and performed incredibly poorly. Premiership threats don’t have those types of losses on a regular basis
lol we got flogged by st kilda who won the spoon in 2017 by 70 points

our losses this year have been to pies, gws and dogs who are still much better than saints of 17 with a shitload of injuries to our top players

lets re visit at rd 20
 

Sol23

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dude we are 4-3 with cotch, rance , jack all injured and martin playing like a dud

hardly the end of the world. pies and cats havent even had an injury yet
And we aernt getting them back anytime soon? As you said Martin playing average, may aswel not be out there. You honestly think we could do something this year?
 

SavDog23

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All we gotta do is keep in touch with the top 4, get our injured players back and work towards hitting peak form from rounds 18 to the GF, just like in 2017.
We weren't the best team throughout that whole year but we hit form at the right time.

Cats, Pies and Giants are playing their best form now and we weren't far off the Pies/Giants in the last quarter before being 2 man down in both games took their toll.

I say just keep within a couple wins of the top 4 by the byes, get Jack, Cotch, Short, Astbury, Graham, all back and in form and we are a massive chance to blitz the comp after June/July.
 

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harrythetiger

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Cats and pies up the pointy end hopefully means we don’t need to win 16+ to be in Victoria week 1.
In 2018, 2017 and 2015, 4th finished up on 15 wins with roughly the same percentage as 4th after R7. 2016 had the same rule for percentage with 16 wins, but that was a clear anomaly with 7 roughly equal premiership contenders and 11 garbage teams.
Just our luck, 4th currently sits on 107%. If we can scrap 15 wins (so finish the year 11-4) and do it at, let’s say, 120% so we finish around 110-115%, I reckon we’ll finish top 4. If we can do that the sky’s the limit.
Right now, we need to bank wins.
Fremantle (A)
Hawthorn
Essendon
North (A)
Geelong (H)
Adelaide (A)
Beating Fremantle, Hawyhorn and North are non-negotiables - not easy beats but simply must wins. Essendon, Adelaide and Geelong I reckon we need to beat at least 1 of them and be competitive in all 3. If we get through this 4-2 we come to the bye 8-5. Exactly as we were after 13 games in 2017.
That’s where we can take stock imo. People are calling for us to give up on the season and ‘play the kids’. I’ve got news. We already are playing the kids. Once we get to this point, guys like Riewoldt, Short, Cotchin will all be coming back into the team. From there it depends on whether we’re in finals contention. If we are, we play the best 22 available. If not, then we think about playing kids and unproven players over guys we don’t feel are part of the next Richmond premiership assault.

After the bye, things open up. Not only should we start getting players back, we finally get consistent games at the G and we can really build towards September.
St Kilda (A)
GC (A)
Port (H)
Melbourne
Carlton
Brisbane (H)
Should really be non negotiables, I can really only cop a loss to one of these (mainly because even if you give us an 80% chance of winning each individual game, that gives us about a 25% chance of winning them all).

GWS (H - R17)
Collingwood (R19)
West Coast (H - R22)

Will all be hugely telling games in our run home. We probably won’t win them all. But we’re going to have to beat 1 or 2 to make top 4.

If we go 7-2 or better in that run and get ourselves into a QF against Geelong or Collingwood, I’m quietly confident we’ll have the momentum to give it a real shame. This is exactly what we needed last year. We’ve had a bit of adversity. We’re trying out a few new players. We now need to bank a few wins and build momentum towards the end of the year. Sure, the security we all felt last year when we pretty much knew for half the year that all we needed to do was rock up in September to win the flag, but maybe risking missing finals altogether - which is where we sit right now - is the best way to win it all.
 
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All we gotta do is keep in touch with the top 4, get our injured players back and work towards hitting peak form from rounds 18 to the GF, just like in 2017.
We weren't the best team throughout that whole year but we hit form at the right time.

Cats, Pies and Giants are playing their best form now and we weren't far off the Pies/Giants in the last quarter before being 2 man down in both games took their toll.

I say just keep within a couple wins of the top 4 by the byes, get Jack, Cotch, Short, Astbury, Graham, all back and in form and we are a massive chance to blitz the comp after June/July.
Big boy month?
Now we r talken!
 

TigerImposter

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Cats and pies up the pointy end hopefully means we don’t need to win 16+ to be in Victoria week 1.
In 2018, 2017 and 2015, 4th finished up on 15 wins with roughly the same percentage as 4th after R7. 2016 had the same rule for percentage with 16 wins, but that was a clear anomaly with 7 roughly equal premiership contenders and 11 garbage teams.
Just our luck, 4th currently sits on 107%. If we can scrap 15 wins (so finish the year 11-4) and do it at, let’s say, 120% so we finish around 110-115%, I reckon we’ll finish top 4. If we can do that the sky’s the limit.
Right now, we need to bank wins.
Fremantle (A)
Hawthorn
Essendon
North (A)
Geelong (H)
Adelaide (A)
Beating Fremantle, Hawyhorn and North are non-negotiables - not easy beats but simply must wins. Essendon, Adelaide and Geelong I reckon we need to beat at least 1 of them and be competitive in all 3. If we get through this 4-2 we come to the bye 8-5. Exactly as we were after 13 games in 2017.
That’s where we can take stock imo. People are calling for us to give up on the season and ‘play the kids’. I’ve got news. We already are playing the kids. Once we get to this point, guys like Riewoldt, Short, Cotchin will all be coming back into the team. From there it depends on whether we’re in finals contention. If we are, we play the best 22 available. If not, then we think about playing kids and unproven players over guys we don’t feel are part of the next Richmond premiership assault.

After the bye, things open up. Not only should we start getting players back, we finally get consistent games at the G and we can really build towards September.
St Kilda (A)
GC (A)
Port (H)
Melbourne
Carlton
Brisbane (H)
Should really be non negotiables, I can really only cop a loss to one of these (mainly because even if you give us an 80% chance of winning each individual game, that gives us about a 25% chance of winning them all).

GWS (H - R17)
Collingwood (R19)
West Coast (H - R22)

Will all be hugely telling games in our run home. We probably won’t win them all. But we’re going to have to beat 1 or 2 to make top 4.

If we go 7-2 or better in that run and get ourselves into a QF against Geelong or Collingwood, I’m quietly confident we’ll have the momentum to give it a real shame. This is exactly what we needed last year. We’ve had a bit of adversity. We’re trying out a few new players. We now need to bank a few wins and build momentum towards the end of the year. Sure, the security we all felt last year when we pretty much knew for half the year that all we needed to do was rock up in September to win the flag, but maybe risking missing finals altogether - which is where we sit right now - is the best way to win it all.
ATM Harry it’s one game at a time. I thought the Dogs game was a lock, but we got walloped. With so many injuries to senior citizens your bottom six becomes a bottom 10-12 and teams will eventually take a hold of us.
The kids have been terrific , but eventually it’s toll will take on them.
If the big boys are out there then you could carry a Costagna or Ellis or a Menadue with some of the five Kids, but all eight is pushing it. We’re also carrying an out of form Lynch Dusty and Broad which means wins will be Herculean when we happen to have them. The Port game was one out of the box.
I’m on the old cliche side of taking it one game at time until the cavalry arrives.
 
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Dr Awkward

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Beating Fremantle, Hawyhorn and North are non-negotiables - not easy beats but simply must wins.
Mate the way we are going now, you think we are actually going to belt fremantle over there?! The should go in strong favourites, our team is decimated.

I was impressed with the 3 wins in a row but as time goes on these injuries will take their toll more.

We've got an overbalance of small bodies, need to bring in townsend, astbury, garthwaite this week imo.
 

Turka

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Hugely confident we're still in it...We may go 4-4, but Freo can go away...Beat Hawks and back in front...Cotchin back soon, means Martin will soon follow...
 

RunningBounce

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There's some powerful time machines in this thread.

Ask yourself if you picked the Dogs to win Round 7. Ask yourself if you expected the Tigers to beat Port in Adelaide. **** me. If we knew what was going to happen, football wouldn't be much fun.

Posters giving up on the Tigers says more about that poster than it does about our Tigers.

Every team (except Carlton) is a contender until September.
 

harrythetiger

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Mate the way we are going now, you think we are actually going to belt fremantle over there?! The should go in strong favourites, our team is decimated.

I was impressed with the 3 wins in a row but as time goes on these injuries will take their toll more.

We've got an overbalance of small bodies, need to bring in townsend, astbury, garthwaite this week imo.
At what point did I say we are 'going to belt fremantle'

The game is a must win. If we lose we start to lose touch with the top teams. It might only be by a goal. I'd like to think we are more than capable of that.
 

Jonesracing82

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hate them all
Sure Cats/Pies/GWS are flying but as we saw last yr now isn't the time to be peaking & we certainly ain't one of the teams doing that, tellingly those 3 i mentioned have only used 26/26/27 players all yr which is the least in the comp, we are = league leaders there on 32, we have more out now than any of them have had all yr. Take the Cats for example, 5 of thier best 22 thus far are kids, they'll tire as the yr goes on & G.Rohan is going well atm but we all know what happens with him when the heat is on, especially in Sept which is the Cats problem for yrs now anyway. We just need to weather the storm for now & we'll be fine.
 
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It's pretty clear this year is over, what we need to be doing now is playing the kids and trying to predict what the winning gameplan will be in 5 years time (and hoping lynch comes good) to have another crack.

Weller must be relegated to the VFL and menadue and markov shown the door. guys like grigg and houli playing their farewell tours (deservedly so for servants of the club), and guys like broad, Ellis, castagna, rioli made to earn their spots. Garthwaite, moore and graham need to play every game when fit to get games into them (and guve them a proper chance to prove they might make it), and guys like Naish need to be the first called in when more Injuries strike.
LOL, seriously?

I think we can still contend providing we can stay in touch with the 8 and can get the senior boys back and healthy for a good part of the 2nd half. Looks like 12 wins will get us into finals this year, we should be able to get there. If we can finish the season with Cotchin and Riewoldt back in the side and Martin and Lynch in form we can beat anyone, anywhere. The injuries could become a blessing in disguise with the amount of games we're pumping into our kids and how well they have been performing. The injuries and form drop offs have already provided us unexpected upgrades on Butler, Grigg and Short and the workload on Nankervis isn't as brutal as it was the last couple years.

The main thing that will need to be fixed is defending against teams that can hold onto the footy, take uncontested marks and pick us apart with neat disposal. Dogs did exactly what the pies have done the last 2 times we've played them. We won't win no matter what team we put out there if we can't get better at that. At the moment it feels like Dimma puts all his eggs in the frontal pressure basket but that alone doesn't cut it anymore. When our zone defence get stretched we get picked apart. We changed our approach mid season in 17' so hopefully we can make a few adjustments from here. Maybe he is waiting until we get a decent team out there to see where we're at?

I guess 1 positive is most of our injuries have been impact injuries rather than soft tissue. So it's pure bad luck rather than poor management. That will turn around at some stage.
 
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