Can Richmond still be a contender this season?

Where will Richmond finish at the end of the H&A season?

  • 1-4

    Votes: 26 19.8%
  • 5-8

    Votes: 60 45.8%
  • Miss Finals

    Votes: 45 34.4%

  • Total voters
    131
  • Poll closed .

Meteoric Rise

Team Captain
Feb 4, 2008
316
974
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
I think I posted after the rd 3 loss to GWS when sitting at 1-2 that assuming losses to Cats, Eagles, Pies, and wins v Saints, Blues, Suns, we would need to win roughly 2 out of every three of the other matches against all the teams in the middle part of the ladder to scrape into finals with 12 or 13 wins.

So far we beat Port, Sydney, Melbourne, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Essendon from this group and lost to North and Bulldogs. So still assuming losses to Pies and Eagles from here, and victories v Saints, Suns, and Blues, we need to win 2 or 3 of the matches v Crows away, Lions, Port, Giants, and Melbourne at the MCG.

Right now, depending on the Crows recovering alright from a 5 day break, I think we are struggling to win that one. So all else being as expected we will need to win 3 from our matches v Port, GWS, Lions and Demons at the MCG to get to 13 wins and a probable finals berth. With our weak percentage, two wins probably won't get us in. So it still looks like being a good effort just to make the finals.

I still think you can win the flag from anywhere under the current system if you are the best team in September, and this has been the case since the week break prior to finals was introduced.

Revisiting my other thoughts from earlier, Lynch hasn't improved so much as I expected to this point, though Hardwick has given reasons he may get better post bye. Martin however seems to be back to the real Martin, and this is a huge boost to our chances. Cotchin has returned safely albeit not at his best just yet, and later if we can get back Riewoldt and Nankervis from long term injuries and they are anywhere near their best then we could be a real handful for any potential finals opponent. Ross is probably a write off realistically given the nature of his injury. Lambert should be back soon. But there is yet the faint possibility of Rance returning, or Pickett maybe giving us something late season, and also don't discount sudden late improvement from our youngsters, Naish, Turner, Collier-Dawkins, Balta, Bolton could all be greater or lesser chances of turning up on the big stage and mugging opponents.

It would be great to finish say 6th and paddock the following team with no key players looking way below their best physically:

Grimes Rance Astbury
Edwards Vlastuin Houli
Lambert Martin Macintosh
Rioli Riewoldt Baker
Caddy Lynch Castagna

Rucks: Nankervis Cotchin Prestia

I/C Stack Pickett Balta Bolton

With Higgins Ellis Broad Butler Graham as players who could slot into positions in that team without noticeably weakening it. I am probably dreaming regarding Rance and even Pickett getting up but you never know. That team would definitely be a serious threat to any opponent in finals.
 

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Lsta062

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 15, 2014
10,218
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The problem is that we need to smash campaigners. Our percentage is ranked clear 10th with North Melbourne only 0.3% behind us.

You guys know how unreliable we are when it comes to smashing other sides. We can get wins no problem, but our percentage right now is like carrying a loss. If us and a bunch of teams are on 12-13 wins at the end of the season, guess who’s the first at risk of missing? Us.

That’s why the next block is so important. Don’t get smashed by Adelaide whether it is a win or loss and then obliterate St Kilda, Gold Coast and Carlton by 70+ points. Do a couple of surprise 40+ point wins against two of West Coast, Brisbane and Port Adelaide and scrape most of the other games for all I care.

We need to start smashing teams especially when we are copping no less than 6-goal losses. If we do that then we’re still in the Premiership hunt. After the bye we need to turn it up.
 

TigerImposter

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 27, 2014
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The problem is that we need to smash campaigners. Our percentage is ranked clear 10th with North Melbourne only 0.3% behind us.

You guys know how unreliable we are when it comes to smashing other sides. We can get wins no problem, but our percentage right now is like carrying a loss. If us and a bunch of teams are on 12-13 wins at the end of the season, guess who’s the first at risk of missing? Us.

That’s why the next block is so important. Don’t get smashed by Adelaide whether it is a win or loss and then obliterate St Kilda, Gold Coast and Carlton by 70+ points. Do a couple of surprise 40+ point wins against two of West Coast, Brisbane and Port Adelaide and scrape most of the other games for all I care.

We need to start smashing teams especially when we are copping no less than 6-goal losses. If we do that then we’re still in the Premiership hunt. After the bye we need to turn it up.
ATM I will take ten straight wins mate.
 

Tiger_Of_Old

Premium Platinum
Nov 23, 2000
35,587
59,516
Country Victoria
AFL Club
Richmond
Just updated my ladder predictor and I have us finishing 5th with a 15-7 record, beating Port week 1 of the finals, then beating GWS in Sydney, extracting revenge against the Pies then ending Geelongs dream in the Grand Final.
LoL.Have us playing the other sa side and yes playing lids 2nd week at the Zoo.
 

Wagee

Draftee
Apr 26, 2019
6
8
AFL Club
Collingwood
Are you guys confident you can bounce back against Adelaide they look to be in good touch
 

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muzhogg

All Australian
Sep 9, 2017
896
3,394
AFL Club
Richmond
Some bloke who writes stuff for newspapers has spoken...


1. Richmond won't win the flag

Consider these results: a 44-point loss to Collingwood in round two, a 49-point defeat at the hands of Greater Western Sydney the following week and a 67-point thumping by Geelong last Friday night. Those three teams are considered the main premiership threats, along with West Coast, which the Tigers haven't faced yet. Consider this as well: there were 10 teams with a percentage in the triple digits after Friday night. Richmond wasn't one of those, having sunk to a miserable 94.5 after the Cats clash. This Tigers side has turned it on in stages, but ultimately, looks a cut below the competition's elite. - Dinny Navaratnam

https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-06-10/six-things-we-learned-from-round-12
Of course we look a cut below the competition's elite. If you think real hard, Dinny, even you could probably work out why.
 

muzhogg

All Australian
Sep 9, 2017
896
3,394
AFL Club
Richmond
Any one set to come back in?
Astbury and Ellis were listed as one week and if that holds true they will be available.

Going to be a month or so before we see huge improvement with regard to availability though.
 

roacheee

Premiership Player
Aug 25, 2015
3,658
7,506
AFL Club
Richmond
Just updated my ladder predictor and I have us finishing 5th with a 15-7 record, beating Port week 1 of the finals, then beating GWS in Sydney, extracting revenge against the Pies then ending Geelongs dream in the Grand Final.
15 wins for 5th hasn't happened in a while
 

Shazza_

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 2, 2018
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Astbury and Ellis were listed as one week and if that holds true they will be available.

Going to be a month or so before we see huge improvement with regard to availability though.
arse and ellis have been ruled out again
 

harrythetiger

Summited Everest 30/9/17
Sep 13, 2015
10,712
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Are you guys confident you can bounce back against Adelaide they look to be in good touch
The team looks very tired, but Adelaide has the 5 day break which plays into our hands. We don't have anyone of note coming back. Our best for 4 quarters probably wins, not sure if we are capable of doing that though.
 

Tiges1229

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 26, 2014
17,675
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Are you guys confident you can bounce back against Adelaide they look to be in good touch
If we play like we did fri just gone we will get beat easily , so it depends which Richmond turns up .
 
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