Can Richmond still be a contender this season?

Where will Richmond finish at the end of the H&A season?

  • 1-4

    Votes: 26 19.8%
  • 5-8

    Votes: 60 45.8%
  • Miss Finals

    Votes: 45 34.4%

  • Total voters
    131
  • Poll closed .

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juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
16,217
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We have been written off by the media and general footy public. I hope they use that to drive the team, and let's get that underdog hunter status back.
I don't think we'll win it personally, unlikely to finish top 4 now and will be hard to win 4 finals in a row, but I would love to stick it up some doubters who went early and win a big final or two if we can get there, knocking out a big contender would be really satisfying.
 

GoTigers2015

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 27, 2014
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Mitchelton-Scott
We need to start drafting/recruiting for class and talent starting this year. We are getting better in that regards but still way off the top sides. Need to stop chasing players who just run and tackle all day.
I would disagree. The last 2 drafts have been really good

2017 Balta, CCJ, Higgins, Naish, Miller, Baker
2018 RCD, Ross, Fraser, English, Stack Aarts

Not perfect but still pretty good talent. Last year's Rookie Draft was disappointing but other that has been a good return.

In hindsight we could have cashed in some of the premiership role players. Would have been lynched by suggesting that we trade Graham, Towner or Butler after winning the flag.
 

Meteoric Rise

Team Captain
Feb 4, 2008
316
974
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
Dinny Navaratnam of AFL.com.au fame says we learned on the weekend that Richmond can't win the premiership. I agree, THAT Richmond cannot get close. But if all or most of the guns get back and are not hampered, that is not the Richmond that GWS Pies Cats etc will be facing come September. What I think we have learned over the last 9 rounds is that Richmond very well could win it if things fall into place because we have unearthed Stack, Ross(I fear we may not get him back to AFL level this season,) Baker, Balta and Bolton. All of those have shown enough to suggest they can impact in September. And I wouldn't write off someone like Naish with his lethal shoe from proving difficult to contain in finals either.

Egg-Simth, Chol and Pickett are also players yet to be unearthed who could step in and impact. So rather than thinking anything happening now proves we can't beat the guns in finals, I think it is actually showing the opposite. Especially when you think Martin has gone from looking spent to much closer to his best. Providing of course you get most or all of Astbury, Riewoldt, Nankervis, Rance, Lambert back and firing and some expected improvement from Lynch, we would take a lot of holding out.

I simply do not buy the theory you need to finish top four to win, three of the last four years the flag has been won or in Collingwood's case almost won by a team playing four finals. That whole dynamic has noticeably changed since the week's break prior to the finals was introduced. The first 22 rounds now means little if you make it, the flag will be won by the best team at finals time.
 
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Lsta062

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 15, 2014
10,218
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I did the ladder predictor and if we take the focus off finishing top 4, then this week’s game against Adelaide is not a critical game for us to win. We could get thrashed by 100 points and it still wouldn’t make much of a difference given that our percentage is so low already.

With revised expectations, there is still some optimism left in the season as we are still a good shot at finishing with a home EF. Here’s my outlook on the remaining matches of the season:

Adelaide (AO) - LOSS
St Kilda (Marvel) - WIN
Gold Coast (Metricon) - WIN
GWS (MCG) - LOSS
Port Adelaide (MCG) - WIN
Collingwood (MCG) - LOSS
Melbourne (MCG) - WIN
Carlton (MCG) - WIN
West Coast (MCG) - WIN
Brisbane (MCG) - WIN

Going 7-3 in the last 10 rounds remaining for us would see us finish with a record of 14-8 and is quite plausible. We could win all those wins by 1 point and lose all of the losses by 100 points and still be a decent shot at finishing 6th because 14 wins usually gets you a spot around 6th or 7th. Hence, percentage is no longer all that important if we are not looking at top 4.

However, we don’t have much room for losing against teams below us on the ladder and losing against non-Victorian sides at the MCG. We can lose a maximum of 1 against GWS, Port Adelaide, West Coast and Brisbane or else we would need to compensate by taking big scalps against either Adelaide at AO or Collingwood.

We can’t lose to any of St Kilda, Gold Coast, Carlton or Melbourne. They are must-win games and there is no excuse. We already filled up the quota of upset losses and can not afford them anymore.

Whether we would win the Premiership from 6th with a low percentage remains to be seen should it happen, but anyone who makes finals is at least in with some sort of a chance.
 

Tiger_Of_Old

Premium Platinum
Nov 23, 2000
35,587
59,516
Country Victoria
AFL Club
Richmond
I did the ladder predictor and if we take the focus off finishing top 4, then this week’s game against Adelaide is not a critical game for us to win. We could get thrashed by 100 points and it still wouldn’t make much of a difference given that our percentage is so low already.

With revised expectations, there is still some optimism left in the season as we are still a good shot at finishing with a home EF. Here’s my outlook on the remaining matches of the season:

Adelaide (AO) - LOSS
St Kilda (Marvel) - WIN
Gold Coast (Metricon) - WIN
GWS (MCG) - LOSS
Port Adelaide (MCG) - WIN
Collingwood (MCG) - LOSS
Melbourne (MCG) - WIN
Carlton (MCG) - WIN
West Coast (MCG) - WIN
Brisbane (MCG) - WIN

Going 7-3 in the last 10 rounds remaining for us would see us finish with a record of 14-8 and is quite plausible. We could win all those wins by 1 point and lose all of the losses by 100 points and still be a decent shot at finishing 6th because 14 wins usually gets you a spot around 6th or 7th. Hence, percentage is no longer all that important if we are not looking at top 4.

However, we don’t have much room for losing against teams below us on the ladder and losing against non-Victorian sides at the MCG. We can lose a maximum of 1 against GWS, Port Adelaide, West Coast and Brisbane or else we would need to compensate by taking big scalps against either Adelaide at AO or Collingwood.

We can’t lose to any of St Kilda, Gold Coast, Carlton or Melbourne. They are must-win games and there is no excuse. We already filled up the quota of upset losses and can not afford them anymore.

Whether we would win the Premiership from 6th with a low percentage remains to be seen should it happen, but anyone who makes finals is at least in with some sort of a chance.
Not sure we'd lose to GWS at the G.
West Coast yes,But not the Giants.
 

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Lsta062

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 15, 2014
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Not sure we'd lose to GWS at the G.
West Coast yes,But not the Giants.
It would be even better to have us winning against GWS because then we can lose to West Coast or Brisbane and be OK.

I just think that GWS are going to be focusing way too much on winning at the MCG to prove a point whereas West Coast would not as much.
 

Tiger_Of_Old

Premium Platinum
Nov 23, 2000
35,587
59,516
Country Victoria
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It would be even better to have us winning against GWS because then we can lose to West Coast or Brisbane and be OK.

I just think that GWS are going to be focusing way too much on winning at the MCG to prove a point whereas West Coast would not as much.
Yep.Big difference between knowing you can win at the G(A flag to boot) compared to hoping you can.
 

Thrasher97

Senior List
Jul 26, 2018
214
1,012
AFL Club
Richmond
I don't know how we're going to go for the rest of the year, I think we'll make finals and can hopefully launch from there.

I don't know why people are saying that we aren't skilled, our ball movement in 2017-18 and patches of 2019 was/is skilled, Just terribly out of form and missing key players.

We beat those "skilled" teams in previous years with pressure and our skill.
 

theyellowsash

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 9, 2009
8,165
9,117
Footscray
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Richmond
I think to say we are skilled now or even in 2017 is a stretch. We have for the most part the same players delivering into the forward line now as we did then. The plan all along was to bomb it to a contest and crumb or pressure. It worked for a while but teams figured out how to combat it better. It was a huge problem in the second half of last year particularly. Only Edwards and Martin of the midfield group deliver the ball with skill, the rest are good at getting the ball. That's unlikely to change by the end of this year.
 

Wooden Robot

Senior List
Feb 6, 2019
234
477
Sutton Grange
AFL Club
Richmond
I doubt we are a contender.
Injurues have been cruel, but even allowing for that, we have so many players out of form. That's the issue for me. Some just aren't doing enough and haven't all season.
 

Shazza_

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 2, 2018
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It would be even better to have us winning against GWS because then we can lose to West Coast or Brisbane and be OK.

I just think that GWS are going to be focusing way too much on winning at the MCG to prove a point whereas West Coast would not as much.
we will have our team back by the gws game. we'll ream them
 

Tiger71

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 22, 2011
18,119
53,682
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It is going to be tough. We will need our players who return from Injury to "click" into form straight away to be a chance. It's one reason I believe finishing outside of the top 4 would be a bonus, gives them an extra game and no rest period. It's funny, it is so easy to question the list, due to the losses we have had this year and easily ignore the fact in the last 2 seasons, this list has won 5 more games then any other side.

That tells me, we have a good coach, and a good game plan. Unfortunately, our depth which is better then most thought, has been extremely testes and we have not been able to consistently maintain our A plan, hence we get opened up by the better sides. I was talking to a bloke from another club this morning and all he could say is that we will be frightening next year injuries permitting.

We have found 4 more starting 22 players and add that to the crop of kids we have in the VFL, on top of who we may bring across and sprinkle all that on a proven list. So I am excited!

Can we win the flag, yeah we can, if 100% goes right BUT I seriously believe we will be a "contender" for a good 3-4 years in the future.
 

Exodus

Draftee
Jun 11, 2019
3
6
AFL Club
Richmond
Those 7 games at the MCG at the end of the season might come into play, combined with those key injured players coming back we might not finish as low as many people think we will.

I still think it's going to be mighty tough for us to challenge deep into September, but I always have hope.
 

Thrasher97

Senior List
Jul 26, 2018
214
1,012
AFL Club
Richmond
It is going to be tough. We will need our players who return from Injury to "click" into form straight away to be a chance. It's one reason I believe finishing outside of the top 4 would be a bonus, gives them an extra game and no rest period. It's funny, it is so easy to question the list, due to the losses we have had this year and easily ignore the fact in the last 2 seasons, this list has won 5 more games then any other side.

That tells me, we have a good coach, and a good game plan. Unfortunately, our depth which is better then most thought, has been extremely testes and we have not been able to consistently maintain our A plan, hence we get opened up by the better sides. I was talking to a bloke from another club this morning and all he could say is that we will be frightening next year injuries permitting.

We have found 4 more starting 22 players and add that to the crop of kids we have in the VFL, on top of who we may bring across and sprinkle all that on a proven list. So I am excited!

Can we win the flag, yeah we can, if 100% goes right BUT I seriously believe we will be a "contender" for a good 3-4 years in the future.
Apparently its all over mate, we're a one flag wonder....
 

Tforce

Club Legend
Suspended
Jun 10, 2006
1,196
2,914
nowhere
AFL Club
Richmond
It is going to be tough. We will need our players who return from Injury to "click" into form straight away to be a chance. It's one reason I believe finishing outside of the top 4 would be a bonus, gives them an extra game and no rest period. It's funny, it is so easy to question the list, due to the losses we have had this year and easily ignore the fact in the last 2 seasons, this list has won 5 more games then any other side.

That tells me, we have a good coach, and a good game plan. Unfortunately, our depth which is better then most thought, has been extremely testes and we have not been able to consistently maintain our A plan, hence we get opened up by the better sides. I was talking to a bloke from another club this morning and all he could say is that we will be frightening next year injuries permitting.

We have found 4 more starting 22 players and add that to the crop of kids we have in the VFL, on top of who we may bring across and sprinkle all that on a proven list. So I am excited!

Can we win the flag, yeah we can, if 100% goes right BUT I seriously believe we will be a "contender" for a good 3-4 years in the future.


I see what you done there.
 

muzhogg

All Australian
Sep 9, 2017
896
3,394
AFL Club
Richmond
We have been written off by the media and general footy public. I hope they use that to drive the team, and let's get that underdog hunter status back.
I don't think we'll win it personally, unlikely to finish top 4 now and will be hard to win 4 finals in a row, but I would love to stick it up some doubters who went early and win a big final or two if we can get there, knocking out a big contender would be really satisfying.
Would be very happy to ruin Geelong or Collingwood's finals campaign.
 
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