I think I posted after the rd 3 loss to GWS when sitting at 1-2 that assuming losses to Cats, Eagles, Pies, and wins v Saints, Blues, Suns, we would need to win roughly 2 out of every three of the other matches against all the teams in the middle part of the ladder to scrape into finals with 12 or 13 wins.
So far we beat Port, Sydney, Melbourne, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Essendon from this group and lost to North and Bulldogs. So still assuming losses to Pies and Eagles from here, and victories v Saints, Suns, and Blues, we need to win 2 or 3 of the matches v Crows away, Lions, Port, Giants, and Melbourne at the MCG.
Right now, depending on the Crows recovering alright from a 5 day break, I think we are struggling to win that one. So all else being as expected we will need to win 3 from our matches v Port, GWS, Lions and Demons at the MCG to get to 13 wins and a probable finals berth. With our weak percentage, two wins probably won't get us in. So it still looks like being a good effort just to make the finals.
I still think you can win the flag from anywhere under the current system if you are the best team in September, and this has been the case since the week break prior to finals was introduced.
Revisiting my other thoughts from earlier, Lynch hasn't improved so much as I expected to this point, though Hardwick has given reasons he may get better post bye. Martin however seems to be back to the real Martin, and this is a huge boost to our chances. Cotchin has returned safely albeit not at his best just yet, and later if we can get back Riewoldt and Nankervis from long term injuries and they are anywhere near their best then we could be a real handful for any potential finals opponent. Ross is probably a write off realistically given the nature of his injury. Lambert should be back soon. But there is yet the faint possibility of Rance returning, or Pickett maybe giving us something late season, and also don't discount sudden late improvement from our youngsters, Naish, Turner, Collier-Dawkins, Balta, Bolton could all be greater or lesser chances of turning up on the big stage and mugging opponents.
It would be great to finish say 6th and paddock the following team with no key players looking way below their best physically:
Grimes Rance Astbury
Edwards Vlastuin Houli
Lambert Martin Macintosh
Rioli Riewoldt Baker
Caddy Lynch Castagna
Rucks: Nankervis Cotchin Prestia
I/C Stack Pickett Balta Bolton
With Higgins Ellis Broad Butler Graham as players who could slot into positions in that team without noticeably weakening it. I am probably dreaming regarding Rance and even Pickett getting up but you never know. That team would definitely be a serious threat to any opponent in finals.
So far we beat Port, Sydney, Melbourne, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Essendon from this group and lost to North and Bulldogs. So still assuming losses to Pies and Eagles from here, and victories v Saints, Suns, and Blues, we need to win 2 or 3 of the matches v Crows away, Lions, Port, Giants, and Melbourne at the MCG.
Right now, depending on the Crows recovering alright from a 5 day break, I think we are struggling to win that one. So all else being as expected we will need to win 3 from our matches v Port, GWS, Lions and Demons at the MCG to get to 13 wins and a probable finals berth. With our weak percentage, two wins probably won't get us in. So it still looks like being a good effort just to make the finals.
I still think you can win the flag from anywhere under the current system if you are the best team in September, and this has been the case since the week break prior to finals was introduced.
Revisiting my other thoughts from earlier, Lynch hasn't improved so much as I expected to this point, though Hardwick has given reasons he may get better post bye. Martin however seems to be back to the real Martin, and this is a huge boost to our chances. Cotchin has returned safely albeit not at his best just yet, and later if we can get back Riewoldt and Nankervis from long term injuries and they are anywhere near their best then we could be a real handful for any potential finals opponent. Ross is probably a write off realistically given the nature of his injury. Lambert should be back soon. But there is yet the faint possibility of Rance returning, or Pickett maybe giving us something late season, and also don't discount sudden late improvement from our youngsters, Naish, Turner, Collier-Dawkins, Balta, Bolton could all be greater or lesser chances of turning up on the big stage and mugging opponents.
It would be great to finish say 6th and paddock the following team with no key players looking way below their best physically:
Grimes Rance Astbury
Edwards Vlastuin Houli
Lambert Martin Macintosh
Rioli Riewoldt Baker
Caddy Lynch Castagna
Rucks: Nankervis Cotchin Prestia
I/C Stack Pickett Balta Bolton
With Higgins Ellis Broad Butler Graham as players who could slot into positions in that team without noticeably weakening it. I am probably dreaming regarding Rance and even Pickett getting up but you never know. That team would definitely be a serious threat to any opponent in finals.
