Autopsy Can Richmond win the flag from outside the top 4?

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BigVic

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Stranger things have happened like the Dogs winning it from outside the top 4. With the advent of the pre finals bye, Richmond winning a flag from outside the top 4 is possible especially with home ground advantage. It’s a possibility this year if they regain Dusty.
 
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Bunk Moreland

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Well of course they can.

But they won’t. They’re past it. Almost every year the former champ which is clearly a shadow of the old team gets this whole “watch out, if they sneak in nobody will want to play them, they’re so dangerous and know how to win!!” narrative from the clickbait media if they finish 7th or 8th.

Invariably they get bundled out straight away simply because they’re just an average team now.
 

Xtreme

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There's more chance of ScoMo becoming PM again than there is of Richmond winning the 2022 premiership.

They're too inconsistent, not enough grunt or mongrel to be battle hardened. You've seen them drop games they should never have lost this season.
 

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BigVic

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Reminds me of the Eagles under Malthouse in the late 90s. Ageing side but making up numbers.
 

Meteoric Rise

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There's more chance of ScoMo becoming PM again than there is of Richmond winning the 2022 premiership.

They're too inconsistent, not enough grunt or mongrel to be battle hardened. You've seen them drop games they should never have lost this season.

You call a 13 match run with the worst result a 6 point loss inconsistent? Whatever Richmond have been they have not been inconsistent. No other team in the competition has a better worst result since round 6 than Richmond.

I am certain a good enough team can win the flag without making the top 4. But the trouble normally is the teams who finish 5th-8th aren’t good enough to do it. Bulldogs and Richmond appeal as the two most likely candidates this season but either or both may miss the 8, and neither have strong claims to be likely in any event.

I agree I don’t think Richmond has the team to get it done this season but the emergence of Cumberland adds a 20th AFL level footballer to our list. We would need to have a couple more at least reach AFL level by finals to have any chance to compete well. Rioli Jnr, Soldo and a few others probably have reasons why they might improve. Stack is lurking in the wings.

But even if we are able to paddock a whole 22 at AFL standard in the event of making finals….to actually win it you still have to deal with things like the Melbourne midfield, which wouldn’t be easy for the current Richmond team.

One big thing the Tigers have that most teams don’t have though is weapons. Lynch Bolton Martin and probably throw in Cumberland and Riewoldt look capable of troubling any team. At the end of the day though our midfield is just not strong enough.
 
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PJays

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My ladder predictor has Richmond finishing 9th

But if they do make it, they're an interesting smoky and I'd rate them a better chance of winning than most teams from outside the 4 historically have been

Their dream fixture might be something like

Elimination final vs Collingwood at the G

Semi final vs an inexperienced finals team or one with a dodgy finals record, like Freo or Brisbane

Prelim final vs Geelong at the G

GF vs Sydney who had upset Melbourne and played their GF a week early

They're 9-3 at the G this year, and 2 of those were earlier in the season when missing quite a few players. The recent loss was 3 points against Geelong

With Dusty back, who knows.

Unlikely but not fanciful.
 

MisterMarcus

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Even if they make it, I don't see how they get higher than 7th at best (unless everyone above them falls over).

Just looking at the ladder, they'll either be playing one of Collingwood, or Sydney/Brisbane/Fremantle interstate in their elimination final. Hard to see them getting past any of those.
 

rfctigerarmy

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Reminds me of the Eagles under Malthouse in the late 90s. Ageing side but making up numbers.
So you made a thread saying that Richmond are a threat. Then you commented on your own thread stating we're making up the numbers.

Quality reading.
 

Simche

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Even if they make it, I don't see how they get higher than 7th at best (unless everyone above them falls over).

Just looking at the ladder, they'll either be playing one of Collingwood, or Sydney/Brisbane/Fremantle interstate in their elimination final. Hard to see them getting past any of those.
I would be quite confident playing Collingwood given that we've already beaten them this year and play a very similar game style. Lynch got hold of Moore last time around and Riewoldt doesn't let Howe go third man up.

Of the interstate sides we arguably should have beaten Sydney up there (threw a lead away) and we've beaten Brisbane at the G (they're a different proposition up there but we have a good record against them) and I'm wholly unconvinced by Freo.

I do not for a minute think we will win the flag this year but we are certainly capable of beating anyone on our day.

In my mind Melbourne will come good when required and have a different gear to even teams that are going well now like Geelong.
 

Falcon3518

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If we don’t beat port we won’t make the 8. Which means we probably finish 9th and miss out on finals because of Balta’s 0.6 second brain fade. Like how unlucky is that s**t.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 

juss

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If the question is can we, then of course there is some chance, we'd need to win 4 in a row, but would probably start underdogs in all 4 games, so I'd say it's extremely unlikely. Compared to other teams trying to win 4 in a row, Richmond at least have finals credibility and experience, and have proven we can go on winning tears at the back end of seasons.

That's the slim case for.

The massive case against is that our core group of premiership stars have way too many of them past their prime, older, a bit slower, more injury prone.
Our midfield is undersized, and outgunned in most matches. Our pressure game is not what it used to be, and we have a mental fragility in dropping leads that is very unlike recent Richmond. Richmond of the flag era would have rolled past those opponents and stomped them by 40 points in the final quarter. Just watch any 2017-2019 game to see how.

I'd probably say we are not in the best 5 teams this year, and so we could possibly win a final, maybe 2, causing a couple of upsets, but our run IMO would end at a PF at max.

If we get there, that would be amazing.

If we even make finals from here, I'll still be fairly impressed.
 

18082015

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Richmond have lost / drawn a lot of close games and would be firmly in the top 4 if they had a bit more composure

still... they are not the side of old and will be carrying a few aging passengers , so no
 

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