Autopsy Can Richmond win the flag from outside the top 4?

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BF Tiger

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 5, 2007
8,736
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Richmond
Not playing great footy, but still thereabouts. So if we make the eight and can step up the quality of our play then it’s a maybe.

Record against current top 8 contenders 4.5 wins, 5.5 losses. In more of our losses we’ve been in the game late than when we’ve defeated a team.

Geelong - 3 point loss.
Melbourne - 22 point loss, but margin probably should have been more.
Collingwood - defeated.
Sydney - 6 point loss.
Brisbane - defeated.
Fremantle - draw.
Carlton - defeated last outing, lost round 1.
St Kilda - 5-6 goal loss.
Footscray - defeated.
 

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Meteoric Rise

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 4, 2008
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Dogs were well entrenched in the top 8 like all of 2016. If I recall weren't they top 4 much of the year? Was a very strong year and they finished 15 wins, which would probably mean top 4 this season. Tigers are out of the 8 with 3 rounds to go. To win a premiership from this position would be unprecedented, I'd say it'd be far more remarkable than what the Dogs did, which was already remarkable. Would need a finals series for the ages like the Dogs too.

Given the relative weakness of most of the top 8 and the Tigers experience if any team can do it it would be them.

I think say in the event Richmond won their last 3 home and away games this season, their home and away season would not look any worse in reality than the Dogs 2016 home and away season. The difference is Dogs won 5 of their 6 home and away matches decided by 10 points or less. And Richmond so far have won 1.5 of their 6. If you literally gave 6 points from the Bulldogs to the Tigers over the season and placed those points strategically, their home and away win/losses would be reversed. Their percentages will be similar(all in the event of Richmond winning the last 3 games of course.)

The thing with the Bulldogs in 2016, was they played a truly great finals series. Whether any team is capable of repeating that is not even a certain thing, let alone nominating 2022 Richmond as being able to. But given Richmond winning out their home and away season there would be so little between the home and away seasons of Richmond 2022 and Bulldogs 2016 that you couldn’t confidently predict based on that which team was actually better.
 

catscollector

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 30, 2018
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The youth of Geelong.
We are already ahead of them rebuilding after winning 3 flags in 4 years They are cooked. We have much better youth.

Yep, both clubs in a world of hurt shortly.

I think on exposed form, both have young players who are going to be elite talents for a decade or more. De Koning & Bolton the two main standouts.
Then there are others who are riding a wave of momentum and are not yet tested but garner weekly praise far too prematurely.
 

PerthBoy86

Norm Smith Medallist
May 23, 2016
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I think say in the event Richmond won their last 3 home and away games this season, their home and away season would not look any worse in reality than the Dogs 2016 home and away season. The difference is Dogs won 5 of their 6 home and away matches decided by 10 points or less. And Richmond so far have won 1.5 of their 6. If you literally gave 6 points from the Bulldogs to the Tigers over the season and placed those points strategically, their home and away win/losses would be reversed. Their percentages will be similar(all in the event of Richmond winning the last 3 games of course.)

The thing with the Bulldogs in 2016, was they played a truly great finals series. Whether any team is capable of repeating that is not even a certain thing, let alone nominating 2022 Richmond as being able to. But given Richmond winning out their home and away season there would be so little between the home and away seasons of Richmond 2022 and Bulldogs 2016 that you couldn’t confidently predict based on that which team was actually better.
I feel the Bulldogs in 2016 were overall much more impressive. Usually were in games. Yes luck did go their way, but the Tiges just looked flat a lot. Tiges have been electric at times, but at times look far from it. That's like every team bar Geelong this season though...but still to be 9th this late in the year and win a grand final. That would be crazy.
 

Meteoric Rise

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 4, 2008
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I feel the Bulldogs in 2016 were overall much more impressive. Usually were in games. Yes luck did go their way, but the Tiges just looked flat a lot. Tiges have been electric at times, but at times look far from it. That's like every team bar Geelong this season though...but still to be 9th this late in the year and win a grand final. That would be crazy.

Richmond’s last 13 matches their worst result is a 6 point loss to Sydney in Sydney. So there is no trouble with them being in games.

There have been a few things malfunctioning for Richmond even in the last 13 games but some of those are fixable. Richmond 2022 and the Bulldogs 2016 have very different strengths and weaknesses of course. The Bulldogs midfield, albeit quite young at that time, would run rings around our 2022 midfield. But in defence and especially in attack the current Tiger team is much stronger.
 

Catsnlakers

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Oct 2, 2016
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Their test will come on the wide expanses of the MCG if they bump into a hungry younger team who can run, it is whether the Cats can go with them over 4 quarters. Their 4th terms have been their strongest this season but their second halves and first halves overall are roughly similar.
Our MCG record is as good as anyone’s in the last couple of years, 10-2 to be precise, & the talk of run actually doesn’t stack up at all because we have some of the leagues best runners, Blicavs, Smith & Duncan just to name a few…..Want proof of this, check out when the ‘old’ Cats ran all over the top of the ‘young’ Pies earlier in the year. If we lose it certainly won’t be to do with run, it will be to do with getting nutted at clearances, like how Port turned the match around the other week….
 
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Ralll

Club Legend
Apr 19, 2009
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I say no.
We could if we had our best 22 all back together fit and firing, but it is probably too late with only 3 rounds left.
 

evo

Morales
Oct 29, 2003
29,552
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Richmond
Not playing great footy, but still thereabouts. So if we make the eight and can step up the quality of our play then it’s a maybe.

Record against current top 8 contenders 4.5 wins, 5.5 losses. In more of our losses we’ve been in the game late than when we’ve defeated a team.

Geelong - 3 point loss.
Melbourne - 22 point loss, but margin probably should have been more.
Collingwood - defeated.
Sydney - 6 point loss.
Brisbane - defeated.
Fremantle - draw.
Carlton - defeated last outing, lost round 1.
St Kilda - 5-6 goal loss.
Footscray - defeated.
Yeah, I feel like Melbourne is the only team that really has the wood on us at the moment.

If we beat Port this week I reckon we are still well in the hunt.

We look way better with Lynchy back.
 

Osho

By God and the mauser.
Jul 9, 2021
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The Tiges have been EXTREMELY entertaining despite not always reaching orgasm. They deliver good games to watch. They can turn it on with a bunch of stars over the ground. And seemingly discovering new young talent regularly. They can also roll over and fall asleep for a qtr or 2.

Little Baker is a legit star in the making. G & D, and foot hand skills. And a happy bloke who loves his footy.

Saw Broady last Sunday morning in a Northcote cafe. With a lovely number by his side. I didn't recognise her with her shirt on and no Premiership medallion around her neck. He is a top notch defender rarely spoken about.

I think they can go again next year if they can work out their defensive pressure more consistently.

They are a bit like The Fall, s**t album followed by genius followed by uneven one etc etc.
 

db26

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The Tiges have been EXTREMELY entertaining despite not always reaching orgasm. They deliver good games to watch. They can turn it on with a bunch of stars over the ground. And seemingly discovering new young talent regularly. They can also roll over and fall asleep for a qtr or 2.

Little Baker is a legit star in the making. G & D, and foot hand skills. And a happy bloke who loves his footy.

Saw Broady last Sunday morning in a Northcote cafe. With a lovely number by his side. I didn't recognise her with her shirt on and no Premiership medallion around her neck. He is a top notch defender rarely spoken about.

I think they can go again next year if they can work out their defensive pressure more consistently.

They are a bit like The Fall, s**t album followed by genius followed by uneven one etc etc.

Loool love your thinking 👌.
 

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Football Tragic

Club Legend
Nov 11, 2010
2,396
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Stranger things have happened like the Dogs winning it from outside the top 4. With the advent of the pre finals bye, Richmond winning a flag from outside the top 4 is possible especially with home ground advantage. It’s a possibility this year if they regain Dusty.

Nothing surer. Richmond versus 'whoever wants to go on a pre season culture killing camp' by 98 points. Lock it in! :moustache: :smile:
 

Kobe Gryant

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Jul 31, 2021
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It’s the team I am scared of playing if they make the 8. They’ll go all the way if they continue to play like this.

Lol you're trying so hard to deflect Collingwood's favouritism onto someone else.

Out of curiosity, who's the next thread about?
 

juss

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Feb 23, 2009
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I still think no.

Finals path could probably look something like Swans (SCG) > Freo (OS) > Melbourne (MCG) > Geelong (MCG).

Be extremely surprised if any 8th placed side would get through that.
Might win a final though depending on the match up.
 

Ricketz

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 2, 2011
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Yep, both clubs in a world of hurt shortly.

I think on exposed form, both have young players who are going to be elite talents for a decade or more. De Koning & Bolton the two main standouts.
Then there are others who are riding a wave of momentum and are not yet tested but garner weekly praise far too prematurely.
These comments didn't age well and the weekend hasn't even finished.
 

freddy mercury

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Mar 20, 2009
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I don't know, they could well play all their finals at the MCG where they are a better side, a lot would have to go right though. They'd almost need some of Collingwoods luck, but I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if they played off in a prelim.

They've gotta make it first.
 

demondavey

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 18, 2005
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Well. The way I see it is that there is no firm favourite at this point. Geelong you can argue are, but I’ll reserve my conclusions after the QF and how they come out of the blocks. This is definitely a bit of a ‘wide open’ finals series.

Collingwood - have a very slick game plan and are doing what they need to win by grinding out big fourth quarter efforts. Interesting to see how they go if they’re 40 odd down at half time.

Melbourne - no forward line. Midfield that is covering the lack of pressure from the forwards and also a midfield that isn’t defending well enough. We aren’t the same side.

Sydney - reckon they’re the real deal, interesting to see how the game against Collingwood goes. But again, may be susceptible at the G. That’s just a guess.

Fremantle - bit inconsistent.

Brisbane - can’t win at the G

I’ve got them playing Fremantle in an EF in Perth via my predictor. Win that and they play Collingwood or Melbourne at the G (genuine 50/50) win that and it’s most likely a PF at the G against Geelong.

Martin - has to be fit
Nankervis
Lynch - critical
Riewoldt
Grimes
Vlaustin
Bolton - critical
Cumberland - X factor type
Short

I am going to make a big call and say the most important in the group is Tarrant. If they are going to meet Geelong then they’ve got to quell the big timber up there. Vlaustin, Grimes, Tarrant can do that. The goal will be to squeeze Geelong through the middle and try and get rushed 50 entries into the Geelong F50. If the ball goes up high, I’ll back the Tigers talls to mark or spoil.

We will know more in a few weeks, but if Collingwood can sit second with 11 wins with quite a few tight ones, and Richmond can be 7th or even 6th with a fair few close losses, I don’t see the big difference.
 

Bazza97

Premiership Player
Nov 17, 2016
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I don't think so but it's going to be an even more interesting finals series with them in it. I can see them winning a final at least.
 

catscollector

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 30, 2018
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These comments didn't age well and the weekend hasn't even finished.

Nah mate, I don't get ahead of myself and imply players in our current best 22 are all future champions. I think like we saw from Gregson, Horlin-Smith, Parsons, Thurlow, it can turn sour very quickly.

We have a few similar types in the current squad.

Don't worry, it'll come true....eventually.

If you say the same thing for 12 years surely you'll be right at some point.

You have been here for just over a year, unless it's a new account, and you have been around for a decade, not sure this is correct.
 

Chaisa

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The problem is that there's a very good chance that their first game will be outside of Victoria and all games are sudden death. The finals series is open enough to cause damage but doing it from 7/8th feels really, really tough. Especially because it's an old side.
 

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