Can someone explain the logic behind cats being favs against the Dees?

Remove this Banner Ad

AdamE89

Team Captain
Apr 24, 2015
487
1,297
Melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Tottenham Hotspur
Yeah I’m a Dess fan, but honestly it’s got nothing to do with that.

They were $1.20 against Adelaide.

Brisbane should have won in the final 25 seconds.

Hawthorn are not expected to do much this year

Additionally

6 day break

Higgins out

No danger

Is this easy money or am I missing something?

8D8BD8D2-ABEF-45E8-9745-F9E4005F1D13.png
2CBFBCC6-F117-4A61-A091-467953BDE4C2.jpeg
 
Last edited by a moderator:

kane249

Death by Snu Snu
Oct 27, 2006
45,011
49,367
Behind enemy Lines
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Sth Freo, Liverpool, Chicago Bulls
People are just apprehensive about the Demons, been plenty of false dawn's before.

The list of teams you've beaten so far (Freo in Melbourne, St Kilda and an injury hit GWS) isn't awe inspiring either.

Best thing is to beat them and show if you are the real deal or not
 
Last edited:

Topkent

Hall of Famer
Aug 29, 2010
42,919
54,815
Canada
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Winnipeg Jets
Yeah I’m a Dess fan, but honestly it’s got nothing to do with that.

They were $1.20 against Adelaide.

Brisbane should have won in the final 25 seconds.

Hawthorn are not expected to do much this year

Additionally

6 day break

Higgins out

No danger

Is this easy money or am I missing something?

View attachment 1094939View attachment 1094934

Who cares mate lol.
We've been crap for 20 years
They've been excellent
We've been sh*t at the G
sh*t under pressure


Geelong were in a GF 4 games ago. It's really not that hard to comprehend.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

AdamE89

Team Captain
Apr 24, 2015
487
1,297
Melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Tottenham Hotspur
Who cares mate lol.
We've been crap for 20 years
They've been excellent
We've been sh*t at the G
sh*t under pressure


Geelong were in a GF 4 games ago. It's really not that hard to comprehend.
WOW WOW WOW!

Settle down their fellow skier, I did ask if someone could explain the logic and if I was missing something?

Go easy lol
 

cznsnowy91

Team Captain
Sep 19, 2015
336
306
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Imo it’s because the cats are good and the Dees are bad.
Pretty much this. Geelong are experienced and a strong team, should be in the conversation once September rolls around. Dees are going well and should make finals, but are a solid rung below the cats. Gonna go take shelter now before the North insults come.
 

kozi

Varsity athlete
Oct 14, 2011
42,744
51,977
living rent free
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Dubs, United
Yeah I’m a Dess fan, but honestly it’s got nothing to do with that.

They were $1.20 against Adelaide.

Brisbane should have won in the final 25 seconds.

Hawthorn are not expected to do much this year

Additionally

6 day break

Higgins out

No danger

Is this easy money or am I missing something?

View attachment 1094939View attachment 1094934
Take out a loan against the house and remember to gamble responsibly.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Topkent

Hall of Famer
Aug 29, 2010
42,919
54,815
Canada
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Winnipeg Jets
WOW WOW WOW!

Settle down their fellow skier, I did ask if someone could explain the logic and if I was missing something?

Go easy lol
If you had to put all your money on a team and they were both $1.90 where are you putting it? Cause I ain't dumping it on us
 

Shadow89

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 20, 2018
7,731
16,884
AFL Club
Geelong
Simplest explanation, would be Scott's presser earlier this week re: injuries and who we have returning -

OUT: Evans (2 game small forward), S. Higgins (has not started the season well, or adjusted to his new role yet so no great loss), Constable (sub)

IN: J. Cameron (2019 Coleman Medalist), Menegola (2020 AA Squad member - most considered unlucky not to make final squad)

Fair turnover in talent in just one game
 

daniel_4tw

Club Legend
Aug 25, 2009
2,076
3,001
Brisbane
AFL Club
Adelaide
Go put your house on the Dees if you’re so confident then. Should be great news to get such good value right?

Odds have to do with where the money is going. As it happens more money is going to Cats to win. Don’t agree? Put money on Dees and the odds will go the other way.
 

AdamE89

Team Captain
Apr 24, 2015
487
1,297
Melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Tottenham Hotspur
Who cares? if you’re confident in a win then be thankful for the odds and make some money.
Yeah nah I do agree with that point. I’m just trying suss out why the bookies think the way they have in this situation.

I guess last seasons results and consistency over time would be the main factor.
 

Pee Tear Griffin

Club Legend
May 29, 2008
2,062
1,228
Melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Golden State, New York Jets
Haha Dee’s fans will you never learn…?
Shithouse troll comment :thumbsdown: If you knew anything about MFC fans then you'd know we are naturally apprehensive (if not downright pessimistic) about our chances in ANY match against a team with high pedigree/strong winning culture (and even those without but who have had the wood on us in recent past), regardless of both team's form going into the match. Literally one Demon's fan has taken umbrage at the fact we aren't favourites against last years Grand Finalists. The rest of us, whilst obviously happy with 3-0, know that we haven't proven sh*t yet.
 

AdamE89

Team Captain
Apr 24, 2015
487
1,297
Melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Tottenham Hotspur
Go put your house on the Dees if you’re so confident then. Should be great news to get such good value right?

Odds have to do with where the money is going. As it happens more money is going to Cats to win. Don’t agree? Put money on Dees and the odds will go the other way.
Yeah dw I’m aware of how it works but while yeah I Google it, that’s no fun in a forum so tell me what this would mean...

It’s 2010 and Cats are $1.21 Melb are $3.90 down at Skilled Stadium.

Cats are 4th 9-6 win loss and Dees 7th
8-7 win loss and similar % but cats have won the last 10 against Melb.

1 day before the game and Dees have come into came into $3.05, and cats drifted to $1.38

Well melb is still the underdog, but have come in or shortened in price by a lot. That means more money on Melb but still the outsider.

Is this more or less a result of how good a value the opening odds of $3.90 was compared to Geelong’d odds of $1.21 (focusing only on the head-to-head market and pretending that line betting etc did not exist)
 

Remove this Banner Ad