Can someone explain the logic behind cats being favs against the Dees?

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GWT6

Senior List
Jun 7, 2011
160
637
AFL Club
Melbourne
Melbourne have some gun players and a pretty balanced side, but with Simon Goodwin coaching they are like Wayne Carey at a BBQ - you just can't trust them.

(Heard a bloke use that line about Melbourne on SEN a few years ago - he was cut off and Huddo and a couple of others else spent the next few minutes saying how disgusting the comment was and how great a person Carey is. The AFL boys club circle jerk has no boundaries)
 

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gingernuts

binlicker
Apr 25, 2018
1,657
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the southern end of the minyip swamp
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Geelong
Melbourne have some gun players and a pretty balanced side, but with Simon Goodwin coaching they are like Wayne Carey at a BBQ - you just can't trust them.

(Heard a bloke use that line about Melbourne on SEN a few years ago - he was cut off and Huddo and a couple of others else spent the next few minutes saying how disgusting the comment was and how great a person Carey is. The AFL boys club circle jerk has no boundaries)
Hilarious, never heard that one before :thumbsu:
 

Bunk Moreland

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Sep 22, 2011
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Opening lines (at the start of the week) can be relatively weak (ie wrong), as the bookies put up whatever they like and can let the market decide while not necessarily taking much money. They get beaten into shape throughout the weak as smart money goes into them.

The smartest punters / syndicates are using models and they’ll chime in throughout the week, if it’s wrong then it’ll flip around. By the time we get to game time, the market is at its most accurate.

Look at the odds just before the first bounce - they’re the important ones and what the market has decided.
 

LukeParkerno1

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Sep 23, 2005
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$2.60 for 1-39 if you want to actually back them. They aren’t winning by 40+
The 1-24 margin is the way I'll be going at this stage probably.

This will be a cracking game, who wins I'm not sure, actually the Dees getting an extra days rest and a less taxing game could be an advantage.
 

Elixuh

See you on the 9th green at 9
Oct 27, 2011
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I can't explain those odds either op. Melbourne has triumphed against the odds over the juggernauts of Freo, St Kilda and GWS this season. Those odds make no sense I agree.
 

Obeanie1

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 26, 2007
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LOL coming from an Eagles fan
LOL. Obviously you don't pay attention much.

How many 30+ year olds did the Eagles trade in lately?

I'll give you a hint, its pretty easy. Zero!

Is that properties company that supports Geelong so well building a high end retirement village down Geelong way? Selling a few "discounted" villas for the boys to settle down in in a couple of years?
 

Farang83150

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May 23, 2010
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Yeah I’m a Dess fan, but honestly it’s got nothing to do with that.

They were $1.20 against Adelaide.

Brisbane should have won in the final 25 seconds.

Hawthorn are not expected to do much this year

Additionally

6 day break

Higgins out

No danger

Is this easy money or am I missing something?

View attachment 1094939View attachment 1094934
Good bit of morning comedy to go with the coffee...nice one..👍
Wonder if it's being shown on the big screen in Fed square!!
 

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Cudi_420

Premiership Player
Feb 16, 2010
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It'll shorten. Similar odds vs St Kilda before it shortened to almost even odds. We're at $2.12 with 5 days to game time. Suspect it'll be around $1.80-$1.90 for both teams come game time.

But to answer your question punters just don't trust Melbourne. Neither do bookies. So odds to encourage betting put Melbourne as outsiders. I'd probably jump on at $2.12 because it's going to shorten.
 

Smithdogmaddog

Club Legend
Apr 13, 2015
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When bookies set the initial odds for a match they do it more based on statistical and historical results over the last 5 to 10 match ups between teams rather than either teams current form.

Then as others have stated the movement in odds is due to where people put there money, expect Melbourne to shorten leading up to the bounce of the ball or depending on what teams are announced.
 

romeohwho

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 20, 2015
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I have the dees favourite for this game. If we play as poorly as the past couple of weeks, we will get a shellacking. If we play well, it’s a toss up.
 

Sweet Jesus

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Dec 20, 2014
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Yeah I’m a Dess fan, but honestly it’s got nothing to do with that.

They were $1.20 against Adelaide.

Brisbane should have won in the final 25 seconds.

Hawthorn are not expected to do much this year

Additionally

6 day break

Higgins out

No danger

Is this easy money or am I missing something?
The "logic" is that more people bet on Geelong.
 

Crusty Demon

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Sep 20, 2009
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Dude! You barrack for Melbourne! You should know exactly why we would not be favourites for this game! The list is a mile long full of reasons. We should win and win it well, but hey, this is Melbourne! Likely to lose by 8 goals. We're starting to show consistency, but need to start winning these types of games for punters to have faith. Win this weekend and maybe punters can start to trust us a little more. It's a fascinating game and possibly the most important so far in Goodwin's career. A loss and everyone uses 'It's the same old Melbourne' line. If the Cats can go 3-1 without Danger, then that's a huge win for them. As a punter, my money is on the Dees currently as to me it looks at least a 50/50 bet, but I won't bet on this one as I am yet to gain full faith in this club.
 

Philth

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Feb 4, 2008
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Seems like your Q has been answered OP. History.

I'd get on that $2.18. Bugger history.

Dees are playing with confidence, and Cats have been a bit ordinary lately.
 

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