Can the Adelaide Crows go all the way?

[Golumless]

Not this year. We have a heartbreaking preliminary final loss written all over us at the moment. There is a hardness/experience you see with the Brisbane's, Geelong's and Collingwood's that you don't see with us.

That said, it's been about as good of a start of the season as I could have envisioned for this iteration of Adelaide's squad. One of the most promising things is this is probably the first year where the heavy lifting is done by the new core. The only real disappointment in that lot is Soligo at the moment, as he started the first month on fire but has since faded (and is likely carrying something). I'm also super happy with our 7-0 record against teams outside of the eight, as it's been an area that's killed Adelaide in recent years and shows a bit more maturity in this group that this is a group that can handle expectation.

The profile looks super promising moving forward. We've become one of the best defensive sides in the league and now not only do we have one of the most efficient forward lines/transition games, but one of the most accurate ones. That said, you can tell the midfield still lacks a bit of firepower, and this team really could do with an elite half back flanker and a bit more tweaking with the game to balance our offensive/defensive game.

 

[Elixuh]

I could see them winning the flag. I could also see them out week one of finals or in straight sets. They’re the team with the biggest floor and ceiling gap in game.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

For 17 teams, "going all the way" in 2025 means earning the right to be beaten by Collingwood in the grand final.

The chasm between the Pies and every other team is massive. The only thing that can beat them this year is an off-the-charts performance against them in the Prelim, ala the Pies themselves vs Richmond in 2018.

That said, the Crows are as likely as anyone else to be runners up this year.

 

[Freomaniac]

Damn. We traded Groom away. I can't even remember what we got for him.

Well you gave Jono Griffin away for pick 61 in the 2010 trade period

 

[Freomaniac]

I will stick by my early prediction of 14 wins, 9 losses and 5th spot.

So home Elim final win and out in semi final. They need that after 7 years of no finals and last finals appearance was the 2017 grand final

 

[WillHayward]

How far can The Crows go?

Ask Melbourne media jerk off machine.

Pies 80% home.
Lions can't win without Daniher.
Hawks amazing!!! So much talent. Mitchell a genius!
Dogs so good!!!! Bont!! Bevo!!! Take your ***** out!
Cats guaranteed a spot in GF.

Everyone else - making up numbers. No chance.

 

[davos44]

Crows sit behind the Pies, Lions and Cats.
Fighting for the 4th seed with Gold Coast, Hawthorn and Fremantle.

What Adelaide have is the percentage advantage with the 2nd best defence and #1 attack numbers wise.

Essentially those teams have to win an extra game from here with Adelaide playing Hawks twice and Gold Coast at home to boot. Hawks are 25% behind, GC 14% and Fremantle are 35%.

The midfield is the problem and unless Sid Draper comes from the clouds to play a rising star winning back half the Crows can't go with any other midfield except Hawthorn without Will Day.

No way known Adelaide are going to win through weight of midfield numbers, it has to be defensive half rebound to hard running forwards or down the line contested marking via a tall forward line.

Scabbing 4th and getting Collingwood at the G on a Friday night would be the best case scenario (almost a zero pressure free swing), rather than having to play Lions at the Gabba or Geelong pushing the AFL to play on a ground described by Adelaide supporters as a "pee pee soaked heck hole" after the first description was cheerfully withdrawn.

Also, check out Geelongs draw for the rest of the season. They are finishing 2nd at worst.

 

[SC_Power]

Crows sit behind the Pies, Lions and Cats.
Fighting for the 4th seed with Gold Coast, Hawthorn and Fremantle.

What Adelaide have is the percentage advantage with the 2nd best defence and #1 attack numbers wise.

Essentially those teams have to win an extra game from here with Adelaide playing Hawks twice and Gold Coast at home to boot. Hawks are 25% behind, GC 14% and Fremantle are 35%.

The midfield is the problem and unless Sid Draper comes from the clouds to play a rising star winning back half the Crows can't go with any other midfield except Hawthorn without Will Day.

No way known Adelaide are going to win through weight of midfield numbers, it has to be defensive half rebound to hard running forwards or down the line contested marking via a tall forward line.

Scabbing 4th and getting Collingwood at the G on a Friday night would be the best case scenario (almost a zero pressure free swing), rather than having to play Lions at the Gabba or Geelong pushing the AFL to play on a ground described by Adelaide supporters as a "pee pee soaked heck hole" after the first description was cheerfully withdrawn.

Also, check out Geelongs draw for the rest of the season. They are finishing 2nd at worst.

Agree with a lot of this.

Lots to go of course, but a couple of quick ladder predictors show Collingwood daylight to Geelong, daylight to Brisbane slightly ahead of about 6 teams including Adelaide.

Great win on Friday night though.

 

[BigVic]

NO

Will lose in the Grand Final to Geelong a-la Port 2007

 

[Freomaniac]

Crows sit behind the Pies, Lions and Cats.
Fighting for the 4th seed with Gold Coast, Hawthorn and Fremantle.

What Adelaide have is the percentage advantage with the 2nd best defence and #1 attack numbers wise.

Essentially those teams have to win an extra game from here with Adelaide playing Hawks twice and Gold Coast at home to boot. Hawks are 25% behind, GC 14% and Fremantle are 35%.

The midfield is the problem and unless Sid Draper comes from the clouds to play a rising star winning back half the Crows can't go with any other midfield except Hawthorn without Will Day.

No way known Adelaide are going to win through weight of midfield numbers, it has to be defensive half rebound to hard running forwards or down the line contested marking via a tall forward line.

Scabbing 4th and getting Collingwood at the G on a Friday night would be the best case scenario (almost a zero pressure free swing), rather than having to play Lions at the Gabba or Geelong pushing the AFL to play on a ground described by Adelaide supporters as a "pee pee soaked heck hole" after the first description was cheerfully withdrawn.

Also, check out Geelongs draw for the rest of the season. They are finishing 2nd at worst.

Dockers and crows are not a top 4 side in 2025

 

[Go the Guts]

No we can't, we can't beat the Collingwood 's Hawthorn 's or Geelong's at the MCG.

Thanks Gary Ayres

 

[Go the Guts]

If Justin Reid had bothered to draft even 1 x A-grade midfielder in the last 10 years, then yes.

But he hasn’t. Great picking Chayce Jones

1

Chayce Jones

Age

25

Ht

180cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.0

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

4.6

3star

M

1.7

2star

T

1.9

4star

CL

1.3

3star

D

8.9

2star

K

4.9

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

1.4

2star

T

1.6

3star

CL

1.1

3star

D

9.4

3star

K

4.4

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

1.8

4star

CL

0.8

3star

before Zak Butters

9

Zak Butters

Age

25

Ht

181cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.3

4star

K

7.7

3star

HB

6.7

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.8

3star

D

14.7

4star

K

8.9

4star

HB

5.9

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.1

3star

D

17.0

5star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.6

4star

CL

0.6

3star

was taken in 2018 though.

Yes he has recruited well from other clubs and delistings in recent years, getting in Rankine, Dawson, Peatling, Neal-Bullen, Keane, Keays and Hinge. Have drafted some absolute guns as well, but not in the midfield. Soligo a diamond at pick 36. But we are desperate for a burst mid still.

Our forward line is the AFL’s best, by a fair margin with Thilthorpe, Fogarty, Walker, Rankine, Rachelle, Keays.

Back line has been AFL best over the last 6-7 weeks.

Midfield still AFL bottom 4. Flags are won in the midfield.

 

[ep2018]

Statistically they need finals experience and they have none.

 

[Freomaniac]

Thanks Gary Ayres

I didn't mind the Gary Ayres crows era of 2000 until mid 2004.

Still gutted with that magpies vs crows 2002 preliminary final.

And yes I wanted a Brisbane vs Adelaide grand final back in 2002, even though crows were likely to lose by 4-8 goals that day had they made it.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

I didn't mind the Gary Ayres crows era of 2000 until mid 2004.

Still gutted with that magpies vs crows 2002 preliminary final.

And yes I wanted a Brisbane vs Adelaide grand final back in 2002, even though crows were likely to lose by 4-8 goals that day had they made it.

You like Adelaide or just hate us that much?

 

[Freomaniac]

Statistically they need finals experience and they have none.

I Agree the crows list need finals experience in the squad.

I disagree that the crows have no finals experience. Crows still have blokes from the 2015 to 2017 finals era.

Guys like Tex Walker, Rory Laird, and Wayne Milera played in finals wins and in that 2017 AFL Grand final.

Yes the crows have turned over a lot of players between 2018 to 2024

 

[Freomaniac]

You like Adelaide or just hate us that much?

Neither. I just wanted 2 non Victorian sides in that grand final that year

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Neither. I just wanted 2 non Victorian sides in that grand final that year

Got your wish 2 years later.

 

[Cleric]

This season is pretty wide open. There's 5 or 6 clubs who could win it.
Adelaide, Geelong, Brisbane, Collingwood, Bulldogs and maybe Freo and Hawthorn.

If Adelaide finish top 4 and get a home final they could absolutely get two wins and into the GF.
Our premiership window has only just opened, and we will be at our peak in 3 to 5 years, so I accept that this might not be our year.

 

[Go the Guts]

This season is pretty wide open. There's 5 or 6 clubs who could win it.
Adelaide, Geelong, Brisbane, Collingwood, Bulldogs and maybe Freo and Hawthorn.

If Adelaide finish top 4 and get a home final they could absolutely get two wins and into the GF.
Our premiership window has only just opened, and we will be at our peak in 3 to 5 years, so I accept that this might not be our year.

Could end in a 119 type GF result…. Not ready for a GF with our midfield, unless Berry, Draper, Soligo etc really step it up next year.

 

[Angus Young]

next 2 years

Won´t beat Brisbane, Collingwood or Geelong away in finals.

Finish top two might make Grand Final.

 

[t_94]

Am I the only one who considers Nicks one of the worst coaches in the league ?

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Am I the only one who considers Nicks one of the worst coaches in the league ?

Serious question. How do you know?

I follow Richmond passionately and intently and have no idea if Adam Yze is a good coach or not.

 

[davos44]

Dockers and crows are not a top 4 side in 2025

Any reasons why not? One of those sides is 3rd right now...

They are in the fight for it, not lock ins. Sure.

Hawks are strong but not super convincing, Bulldogs are good, but not strong without Weightman and Darcy up front. GWS are struggling to kick it to a player wearing their colour at the moment, but could pick up in the 2nd half of the year.

Gold Coast have a Collingwood, Adelaide, Brisbane Stretch in July which will be interesting as their last 4 is fairly pedestrian.

Fremantle are 7 wins and just beat the Suns away.
North, Essendon, Saints and Sydney with 2 at home to come over the next 4 weeks.
If they go anything but 4-0 or 3-1 in that stretch, sure, they're out of top 4 contention

Adelaide goes to Launceston for the Hawks, then after the bye their away games are against the Richmond at the G, Bulldogs at Marvel, West Coast in Perth, and North at Marvel. No Ballarat or Hobart trip.

Hawks last month is Adelaide, Collingwood, Melbourne, Lions.

The top 3 could well be a 20-3 to 18-5 (or 17-5-1 in Brisbane's case) but 4th could be that sneaky 15-8 sort thing where they are just ahead of 5th-9th.

 

[Rotayjay]

Am I the only one who considers Nicks one of the worst coaches in the league ?

Every one of the other 17 coaches in the AFL at least has a case for why they are better than Matthew Nicks. This is the concerning thing for Adelaide supporters: we're finally putting together some wins despite our predictable, inept match day coach rather than because of him.

And making the eight means he'll get another contract. He is our Hinkley, but at least Hinkley has won multiple finals. Nicks hasn't made the eight in 5 attempts. We can only hope Nicks improves his skills or the newly-appointed coaching director Murray Davis mitigates Nicks' weaknesses.