Can The Hawks Do It Again?

[GhostofJimJess]

There appears to be a few parallels that can be drawn between this season and 2008.

Firstly, only the most ardent Hawk supporter would deny that theirs was not the best team over that season. Probably second best, but the gap between the Hawks and the Bulldogs was closer than between the Hawks and the Cats in that year. Whatever the order, these were clearly the three best clubs in season 2008, with only probably the Saints standing in the way of the overwhelming favouritism with the bookies of at least one of them winning the Flag.

In the 2008 Qualifying Final the Hawks were able to convincingly dispense with the Bulldogs, condemning them to a Preliminary Final a fortnight later against Geelong, and ultimately elimination. In essence, the Hawks had used a power performance in the first week of the Finals to get rid of one half of their major rivals for the Flag.

On Grand Final day of that year, the Hawks through a planet-aligning combination of great planning and even greater good fortune, triumphed on the day against a previously all-conquering team who had scored an emphatic victory in the previous year's Premiership. It wasn't a Steven Bradbury win, but it also wasn't a Cathy Freeman either.

Fast forward to 2011. Three teams (with respect to West Coast and Carlton in 4th and 5th ranking) fairly clearly ahead of the pack in Premiership contention. Next weekend the Hawks have the opportunity to inflict a whacking to their nearest neighbour on the ladder, like the one they dished out to the Dogs on the corresponding weekend in 2008. This would again consign their two biggest rivals to a Preliminary Final knock-out bout.

With Collingwood of 2011 playing the role of Geelong of 2008, and a few other cards playing out the right way, what odds the Hawks being able to repeat their snatch-and-run Premiership of 2008?

To me, their squad certainly looks no less capable of such a feat than it did in that year. If Hale could play the role of Roughead (who had a relatively miserable Grand Final in 2008 anyway), the emergence of Cyril, maybe Puopolo as Stuey Dew, Burgoyne as Crawford and the dramatic improvement of so many of their younger brigade, not such an outside chance I reckon?

 

[HyperAgressiveDonk]

SSSSSSSshhhhhhhhhhh

We are just happy to go about our business with no fanfare. Just like in 2008.

 

[roosaints]

Can't see it. I think in 2008 they were the second best side for most of the year but their form leading up to the grand final was alot better than Geelong's. It was not as big a surprise as alot of people made out in hindsight.

This year I think they are the third best side and I don't think they can beat Geelong and Collingwood, but they may be able to beat one of them and make the grand final. They have, in my opinion, the best player in the competition in Franklin and other stars in Hodge, Rioli and Mitchell.

But too many of their best players - Hodge, Rioli, Burgoyne - are up and down and float in and out of matches. Unlike guys like Pendlebury, Swan, Selwood, Bartel etc.

It's possible, but I think Geelong are the side more likely to upset Collingwood, especially given their dominance last night (cue Collingwood supporters to ignore getting thrashed in inside 50s by their nearest rival twice this year as last night was irrelevant).

 

[fpm84]

It's possible, but I think Geelong are the side more likely to upset Collingwood, especially given their dominance last night (cue Collingwood supporters to ignore getting thrashed in inside 50s by their nearest rival twice this year as last night was irrelevant).

Collingwood are deserved flag favourites no doubt, but we only finished one game and 10% points off top spot - our three losses by a combined total of 25 points. We also have a 4-0 record against Collingwood and Hawthorn this season, not that it will count for anything from next week.

In 2008 we finished four games and a whopping 30% clear of the Hawks but leading into the finals they were clearly the better team and deserved the premiership based on their dominant finals campaign.

The gap between Collingwood and Geelong/Hawthorn this year is nowhere near as big as people like to make out. I believe both teams can beat the Pies in a final. I also think that if we do play Collingwood in the grand final the betting odds will be far closer than they were last night.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I don't think they can beat Collingwood. But they can beat anyone else.

 

[Badesumofu]

2008 was a three horse race for a lot of the year, and I think it broke the record for the longest time for three teams to remain unbeaten (I believe all three got to 8-0). However, towards the end the field narrowed, and most people were saying things like 'just play the Hawks vs Cats GF now' by about round 18.

Hawthorn showed that they were well ahead of the Bulldogs in that QF. During the year, Geelong were the best team, Hawthorn and the Dogs were the challengers. In the finals, Hawthorn were clearly the best team, Geelong clearly second, and the Dogs and Saints tied for third.

Could Hawthorn do something similar and be the best team in the finals? Of course. I don't think the fact that it happened in 2008 makes it any more or less likely in 2011, though. After last night, Betfair has Collingwood a 2.04, Geelong at 4.20, and Hawthorn at 6.20, and everyone else $20.00 or longer. I think that's about right. Had Collingwood smashed Geelong last night, or just won comfortably as expected, Hawthorn would have gone into the QF as slight favorites - Hawthorn and Geelong were equal second favorites for the flag for a few hours in the lead up to last night's match. Now, Geelong will start as quite strong favorites. I don't think this afternoon's match will affect the flag odds, unless Hawthorn lose. That would confirm in a lot of peoples' minds that Hawthorn are too reliant on a (somewhat mutant) handfull of stars.

 

[parsons nose]

Yes no question in my mind you need the planets aligning to win the big one. Now more than ever. Hawthorn managed their list well leading into the finals that year. As a consequence we had a full list to choose for leading into the GF. Moreover the entire team had hit their straps.

But that's a oversimplified analysis of why we saluted. Croad went down in the first quarter and Young before half time. Hawks could have dropped their heads in the second half but as history shows we found an extra leg. In the space of twenty-five minutes Geelong went from a team that would have fancied its chances to one totally bereft of ideas on how to reverse their fortunes.

This is instructive as it demonstrates as important as luck is in getting the job done it's as much about contingency planning that will see your team claim the ultimate prize. Watch this space.

 

[SHAKESPEARE]

I don't think they can beat Collingwood. But they can beat anyone else.

We cannot, and won't beat Geelong or Collingwood.

Collingwood have out game plan in their back pocket, and the tools to pull it apart like a 12 year old serial killer in training with a butterfly.

Geelong have the mental strength, drawn from the 2008 loss, propelling them to greatness, with an equally great coach.

Geelong vs Collingwood GF. Geelong by 32.

 

[SA HAWK]

We cannot, and won't beat Geelong or Collingwood.

Collingwood have out game plan in their back pocket, and the tools to pull it apart like a 12 year old serial killer in training with a butterfly.

Geelong have the mental strength, drawn from the 2008 loss, propelling them to greatness, with an equally great coach.

Geelong vs Collingwood GF. Geelong by 32.

I fear you are right but hope you are wrong.

 

[SHAKESPEARE]

I fear you are right but hope you are wrong.

Well, anything can happen on the day.

I just don't think the Cats will let it slip again. They look so driven. The blemishes against also rans are nothing in the scheme of things. I'm not buying that Collingwood just self preserved themselves last night.

It makes for a good battle next Friday night, and i'll be there, expecting the worst.

 

[krisholio14]

I never underestimate the Hawks, especially when they have to play us during a finals series.

 

[SHAKESPEARE]

I never underestimate the Hawks, especially when they have to play us during a finals series.

I think Chappy will ensure that his boys don't underestimate Hawthorn. That guy has a fanaticism to destroy us, and he is the most important player at Geelong i reckon.

 

[Kong]

Yeah, I've had that feeling for about a month now.

As much as I want Geelong to win, I just can't see it happening, for some reason.

Clarkson is a tactical genius, and he'll have a few tricks up his sleave should the Hawks make it into the big one.

FWIW I'm actually considering putting money on a Geelong v Hawthorn GF.

 

[Messenger]

I think we can. But that may be the blind faith talking.....

 

[Lemma]

I'd love for the Cats to win. Fast becoming my team for the finals!

 

[TheGhostOfJohnBelushi]

I think the Hawks will be found out in week 1 of the finals. Geelong have been cruising all year as much as the Pies have. Their focus is one final flag and I believe they will get it.

 

[HyperAgressiveDonk]

Yeah, I've had that feeling for about a month now.

As much as I want Geelong to win, I just can't see it happening, for some reason.

Clarkson is a tactical genius, and he'll have a few tricks up his sleave should the Hawks make it into the big one.

FWIW I'm actually considering putting money on a Geelong v Hawthorn GF.

That's been my tip for about a month now. The two most talented sides in in the 8 at the moment in my opinion.

 

[Darealrath]

Wouldn't shock me but I think missing Roughead will hurt moreso in the finals. He might be needed to go back like he did in 2008.

 

[seysearles]

Can't see it. I think in 2008 they were the second best side for most of the year but their form leading up to the grand final was alot better than Geelong's. It was not as big a surprise as alot of people made out in hindsight.

You do realise that we're on an 8 game winning streak yeah?

 

[HyperAgressiveDonk]

You do realise that we're on an 8 game winning streak yeah?

And we we have won more games this year than in 2008. We were 17-5 that year, this year we are 18-4

 

[PAFC_1870]

Wouldnt bet on it... two good sides above em.

I think Roughead being that difference atm.

 

[Fluro Boots]

Wouldnt bet on it... two good sides above em.

I think Roughead being that difference atm.

For what it's worth i dont think Roughy should be considered either this year or next. He went down relatively early, and will be gone for most of next year i reckon. Harsh blow for sure, but when looking at hawthorn forget about roughy for a while. He'll be like a new recruit in 2013.

If we don't win the flag in 2011 it's because we weren't quite good enough. It wont be because of Roughy being injured.

 

[PAFC_1870]

I just think when finals come around, the best fwd doesnt usually carry the team through, it's usually that other guy that pops up and kicks a few.

If Roughie was number 2, it means Rioli is number 3, that's the difference for mine.

 

[Pessimistic]

We landed a great white shark with a 12 pound line in 2008.

But to win in 2011 hwks would need to do that against two differen sharks.

may get one but not the other.

It'd be good to get the 3 finals into the youngsters in our team, without being disgraced.

I wonder who the pies fans will be 'cheering' for on friday night ?

 

[GFC123]

They can do it, as can the Eagles, Blues, Saints, anyone can win it but the favourites are Collingwood, Geelong and Hawthorn. We'll see where the Hawks are at next friday night, it'll be a very close game.