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Strategy Can the Saints make the finals this year?
- Thread starter freebloke
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Persevering Saint
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Ugh, now I feel all dirty inside...I guess we'd better barrack for the Pies this weekend - yikes!
I'm OK with that, been doing it bit of late in particular games. I don't actually mind or care that much about Collingwood these days. At the games you hardly hear anything negative any more in the crowd on a weekly basis (at least I don't- I reckon most must vent online these days), so most of my experiences of those who support the other teams are from on here and the Pies folk I encounter on here tend to be OK compared to many other teams, so I'm fine with hoping they win certain games that don't involve us, or another team I want to win.I guess we'd better barrack for the Pies this weekend - yikes!
Go Pies!
- Jan 10, 2011
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Maybe we could win 2 and make it but the best result if we are only going to win one of the next 2 is to beat North. I don't anyone could argue with that. It is the true 8 point game.
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I didn't argue that us beating North wouldn't be the best result though, that's very obviously the case and goes without saying. I just argued against the suggestions that we "have to beat North", which I don't believe to be factually correct, as it's still very much mathematically possible for us to lose to them but still make it, as I pointed out.
I actually see this weekend's game v WB as the most winnable out of the next two, as they are coming back from Cairns, are missing Stringer, who is a big x-factor- as well as others like Murphy, Dahl and Adams- and they haven't been a great scoring threat recently, even when they do have Stringer (Redpath and Dixon have dropped off and Boyd doesn't usually hit the scoreboard), while I suspect North will lift in the next couple of weeks, especially for Harvey's record-breaking game. They kicked themselves out of last weekend's game v Port and they'll be putting everything on the line in the next couple I reckon, especially after all this negative press. They could easily win their next two and put all this to bed.
I actually see this weekend's game v WB as the most winnable out of the next two, as they are coming back from Cairns, are missing Stringer, who is a big x-factor- as well as others like Murphy, Dahl and Adams- and they haven't been a great scoring threat recently, even when they do have Stringer (Redpath and Dixon have dropped off and Boyd doesn't usually hit the scoreboard), while I suspect North will lift in the next couple of weeks, especially for Harvey's record-breaking game. They kicked themselves out of last weekend's game v Port and they'll be putting everything on the line in the next couple I reckon, especially after all this negative press. They could easily win their next two and put all this to bed.
- Jan 10, 2011
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Once people say mathematical I reckon you are shot. And I don't get the dislike by a few about the Dogs form. Yes in our favour is Stringer being out and coming home from Cairns but the Dogs just beat the GC away from home by 40 points and 3 weeks ago we lost to the GC at home by 40 points. Their form is bloody good and if they were a proven side like Sydney I reckon there wouldn't be anyone picking us apart from the kiss of death. If we aren't able to beat North with their current form then we don't deserve to make finals. I take no notice of milestone games as I reckon the results show it doesn't real seem to matter.
All I know is the easier game is North and best win out of the 2 is North and is your scenario of the pies beating North this week and us beating North the next week well even if we lose to the WB we will only be one game out with Carlton to come the week after. If results go as we hope that week we will be out on percentage. If your scenario was to work we would be out by a game and percentage with Sydney the following week and a loss there would just about kill our chances even if mathematically we could still make it. The best result is to win both I suppose but it is probably more likely we will lose both.
You're not seriously comparing the Gold Coast we lost to on their home deck of Metricon to the one that played WB on a ground that isn't their home ground and in particular with GC having lost practically their engine-room of Ablett, Prestia and Rischetelli (on top of O'Meara and Swallow not being there) for the game are you?
That would be like us losing Steven, Armitage (in his current form) and Ross in one hit and would pretty much ensure we would lose any game- especially against a professional top 6 team who have a very good midfield. Gold Coast have been good in two patches this year and both of those came when they were close to full strength (like when we got them, on the back of a very solid couple of weeks form), the rest of the time they've been crunched by injuries and have been poo, understandably. Like when Melbourne (who we've comfortably beaten twice) smashed them by 80 points or whatever up there.
As for the WB, I believe they're a really, really good team when they're firing on all cylinders, but I also don't believe they're the white-hot team that beat us earlier in the year, when they were at pretty much full-strength (understandably), hence struggling to get over Richmond two weeks ago and getting smashed by Geelong two weeks earlier, the week before we beat Geelong.
They're a bit up and down of late (very, very good one week and not so much the next- over the past 4 games at least- and if that pattern continues they're due for their down one) and as has been widely reported, they are struggling to kick big scores and that was with by far their biggest current weapon up forward in Stringer playing for them. Dixon (who kicked 50 for them last year) has kicked just two goals in his last 4 games and Redpath just 5 in his last 4, so they'll be doing bloody well to kick a decent score and if they don't that will give us a huge chance- if the good Saints show up, as opposed to the terrible Saints who played them last time. I'm also noticing a lot of focus on their return clash next week against Geelong in the media and amongst their supporter group, so hopefully they'll take us a tiny bit easy and think next week is the one they really have to get up for.
Make not mistake, we could lose this game and lose easily, but earlier in the year we lost to Hawthorn by 3 points the week after they did, we lost to North by less than they did the week before and we beat Geelong the week after they lost badly to them, which says to me that when we're on, our form stacks up pretty well against theirs. Theirs is just much more consistent, obviously and they've been hit harder by injuries.
As for North, we'll just see, they are apparently a club who really gets up for milestone games and milestone games don't get much/any bigger than this one. Those who play for football teams are not robots, so they'll have more motivation to win some games than others and I suspect they'll really be keen for these next two. If not, they may lose all 6 of their remaining games and 11 wins may get you in!
That would be like us losing Steven, Armitage (in his current form) and Ross in one hit and would pretty much ensure we would lose any game- especially against a professional top 6 team who have a very good midfield. Gold Coast have been good in two patches this year and both of those came when they were close to full strength (like when we got them, on the back of a very solid couple of weeks form), the rest of the time they've been crunched by injuries and have been poo, understandably. Like when Melbourne (who we've comfortably beaten twice) smashed them by 80 points or whatever up there.
As for the WB, I believe they're a really, really good team when they're firing on all cylinders, but I also don't believe they're the white-hot team that beat us earlier in the year, when they were at pretty much full-strength (understandably), hence struggling to get over Richmond two weeks ago and getting smashed by Geelong two weeks earlier, the week before we beat Geelong.
They're a bit up and down of late (very, very good one week and not so much the next- over the past 4 games at least- and if that pattern continues they're due for their down one) and as has been widely reported, they are struggling to kick big scores and that was with by far their biggest current weapon up forward in Stringer playing for them. Dixon (who kicked 50 for them last year) has kicked just two goals in his last 4 games and Redpath just 5 in his last 4, so they'll be doing bloody well to kick a decent score and if they don't that will give us a huge chance- if the good Saints show up, as opposed to the terrible Saints who played them last time. I'm also noticing a lot of focus on their return clash next week against Geelong in the media and amongst their supporter group, so hopefully they'll take us a tiny bit easy and think next week is the one they really have to get up for.
Make not mistake, we could lose this game and lose easily, but earlier in the year we lost to Hawthorn by 3 points the week after they did, we lost to North by less than they did the week before and we beat Geelong the week after they lost badly to them, which says to me that when we're on, our form stacks up pretty well against theirs. Theirs is just much more consistent, obviously and they've been hit harder by injuries.
As for North, we'll just see, they are apparently a club who really gets up for milestone games and milestone games don't get much/any bigger than this one. Those who play for football teams are not robots, so they'll have more motivation to win some games than others and I suspect they'll really be keen for these next two. If not, they may lose all 6 of their remaining games and 11 wins may get you in!
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- Jan 10, 2011
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Well I hope you are right but I still say apart from the Melbourne game our form lately hasn't been anywhere near as good the WB form and I'm sure you have said that lately as well. matter of fact I reckon I have been positive than you lately. And I still say if the WB were a team of another name like Sydney they would have much more respect than they are getting now. I'm sure many argued we could beat them last time and we were smashed. I don't expect us to be smashed this time at all but I still think the North game is the easier game and also obviously the best out of the 2 to win if we can only win one. Like a said though we could maybe win 2 or most likely neither.
Of course our form of late hasn't been as good as theirs (and you must think Richo has been negative too, because he said after our win on Sunday that our form in the previous two weeks wasn't good, which had been my contention- although I thought he was a bit OTT saying that was our best game of the year, when we genuinely left about 10 goals out on the park and had beaten Geelong 3 weeks earlier), but as anyone who follows the AFL would know, it doesn't really matter what our most recent form has been like, because we're more up and down than probably any team in the comp, with our best being capable of pushing the best and our worst being at least 10 goals worse and us being able to go from one to the other from one week to the next.
We have won 6 of our last 8 though (same as them), so our most recent form might not be that far off theirs.
So like I said in my post (and I emphasised the "if" in bold letters) it will pretty much all depend on which Saints turn up, just like it did last time against them and like it has every other week this year. Our best has pushed some of the best teams and has tended to be at least 5 goals better than any of the bottom 8 teams. If that team turns up I genuinely believe we'll win the game. If it doesn't, we almost certainly won't.
We have won 6 of our last 8 though (same as them), so our most recent form might not be that far off theirs.
So like I said in my post (and I emphasised the "if" in bold letters) it will pretty much all depend on which Saints turn up, just like it did last time against them and like it has every other week this year. Our best has pushed some of the best teams and has tended to be at least 5 goals better than any of the bottom 8 teams. If that team turns up I genuinely believe we'll win the game. If it doesn't, we almost certainly won't.
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Yeah we're pretty much un-tippable/bettable at this stage. Hopefully the good Saints turn up and we make amends for Roo's 300th.
Oops thought this was the Preview thread. Ah well still kinda relevant.
Oops thought this was the Preview thread. Ah well still kinda relevant.
I guess we'd better barrack for the Pies this weekend - yikes!
I uh.... hope that ummm Collingwood lose by less than North.
Is that good enough?
dewah07
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soooo ummmm carsile can play finals if we make it....
anyone know how his injury is tracking?
anyone know how his injury is tracking?
Mowman
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About 4 weeks ago his hip was very stiff still and was heading overseas for 4 to 5 weeks. Hadn't done any training since the op . And was hoping to start training when he gets back.
Thats it ,im putting money on him for Norm Smith medal
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Can Carlisle actually play in finals? I thought he could just be coming back to training about that time but not be able to play.
Pretty sure the answer is no.
Only able to train not compete.
He probably has a few pizza's and some KFC to get rid of, and he won't lose weight as easily now that he's off the gear.
George
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Next two weeks will make or break. Win both and we'll make it.
I also think Doggies are gettable. They are not in the form they were in early in the season and they are not scoring. When we are on we can score fast and big.
I feel our chances of winning next two are about 20%.
I also think Doggies are gettable. They are not in the form they were in early in the season and they are not scoring. When we are on we can score fast and big.
I feel our chances of winning next two are about 20%.
Yeah we'll beat the dogs and kanga's then lose to richmond. Thats how it is
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Basically this is it in a nutshell;
1) If North win their next two and lose their remaining four games...
WE NEED TO BEAT: Bulldogs, Blues, Swans, Tigers, Lions to make the finals.
2) If North win one of their next two and lose their remaining four games...
WE NEED TO BEAT: Bulldogs OR Roos, Blues, Tigers, Lions to make the finals.
3) If North lose all six remaining games...
WE NEED TO BEAT: Blues, Tigers, Lions to make the finals.
Option three could be out the window at 11pm Friday night if North win, so lets hope for option 2! I wouldn't feel as confident in us if we knew we HAD TO beat Sydney to make the eight. I'd rather go the option 2 route and win ONE of the next two, and make sure we win the other three.
Obviously Port are 9th and still in the hunt too but I don't want to over complicate things, they've got a tough draw as it is (Giants, Lions, Swans, Demons, Crows, Suns) so they'll probably finish with 11 wins. We have the easier fixture, lets just hope lol.
1) If North win their next two and lose their remaining four games...
WE NEED TO BEAT: Bulldogs, Blues, Swans, Tigers, Lions to make the finals.
2) If North win one of their next two and lose their remaining four games...
WE NEED TO BEAT: Bulldogs OR Roos, Blues, Tigers, Lions to make the finals.
3) If North lose all six remaining games...
WE NEED TO BEAT: Blues, Tigers, Lions to make the finals.
Option three could be out the window at 11pm Friday night if North win, so lets hope for option 2! I wouldn't feel as confident in us if we knew we HAD TO beat Sydney to make the eight. I'd rather go the option 2 route and win ONE of the next two, and make sure we win the other three.
Obviously Port are 9th and still in the hunt too but I don't want to over complicate things, they've got a tough draw as it is (Giants, Lions, Swans, Demons, Crows, Suns) so they'll probably finish with 11 wins. We have the easier fixture, lets just hope lol.
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