Can we Afford both De Goey and Grundy and Moore

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Knightmare

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As a hypothetical and it's well established that everyone here and inside the club is for the retention of De Goey and Grundy. Or so I'm imagining without crawling through the whole thread.

Assuming the list stays together. Who/what do you all see as the club's greatest need? What's the 1 missing piece that would take the club over the top? Or are there 3-4 pieces/positional needs that require filling?

Overall I'm looking at Collingwood as a weaker side than 2018.

I'm seeing a need for a big, stoppage specialist who goes in and wins first possession (Patrick Cripps equivalent). Hopefully Sier can do that whenever he is back and he needs to be used in that role between now and seasons end to see if he can be that guy. Late 2018 he looked like he had the scope to become something close to Sydney's Josh Kennedy, so maybe he can still become that.

In defence I'm seeing the club being at least one good backman short. Crisp and Howe are terrific but won't be around or this standard forever. Quaynor I was hoping would be that guy as that compliment and maybe he can be, his VFL play is solid. But we need to see it between now and seasons end.

I'm looking for another key defender. Moore's body is unreliable and Dunn/Roughead won't be around forever. Unless Mihocek gets switched back I see it unlikely that solution comes internally though many will hope it's going to be Kelly.

Up forward I want that crumber who hits the scoreboard in a big way and brings the forward pressure (Atu has the speed and pressure) so he can at some point try out for the role but not sure he is capable of the scoreboard impact I'd like, but he could plausibly fill the role. Not convinced it's Brown or Daicos until they step things up a few notches.

Would like someone else who can do damage across half-forward and push up through the mids, but more with a forward leaning.

I'd also love that combo key forward/wing - think Richo/N.Riewoldt on the wing or something like a Westhoff/T.Lynch (Adel) kind of equivalent.

If I'm picking out the perfect players for the various roles I'm looking at something like Cripps/J.McGovern/Z.Williams/Tipungwuti/Rankine/Lukosius as those most appealing of their type.

And ultimately with a lot of those you have to lower your expectation on who you could go for. That might mean Jarryd Lyons rather than Patrick Cripps. Jeff Garlett rather than Tipungwuti. Lewis Johnston (SANFL) instead of Lukosius. S.Motlop instead of Rankine. L.Jones instead of McGovern. But you have to start somewhere and then consider all those who can play those positions/rolls who would be best 22 standard.
 

sr36

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Collingwood have an aging list (second oldest in the competition behind Hawthorn) and need more quality youth. Lukosius fits Collingwood's playing list optimally as a player in a short kicking, high possession system who can get you 10 marks a game and start meaningful offensive drives himself. Rankine as a forward/mid also brings something very different but helpful as a freakish ground level player with a complete game. Gold Coast isn't a club that can get the most out of either of them. Collingwood is the optimal spot for both to have their talents maximised. Add two high first round picks to them and that better balances the club's aging list and creates much needed list flexibility with just fitting Grundy and De Goey over the long run a task. I'd see such a deal as entirely one sided towards Collingwood.
I reckon you're looking too much at the data and not enough at the context on this one. We may have a statistically older list, but we don't have an older team. Unlike other clubs, a huge number of our older players are depth. They've already been transitioned out of the team or are borderline selections that are playing a role. The midfield group is the only area where age could become an issue within the next few years, but with Stephenson and Degoey likely to transition to that area and hopefully Sier to come good - I don't see it as an issue at all.
 

Knightmare

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I reckon you're looking too much at the data and not enough at the context on this one. We may have a statistically older list, but we don't have an older team. Unlike other clubs, a huge number of our older players are depth. They've already been transitioned out of the team or are borderline selections that are playing a role. The midfield group is the only area where age could become an issue within the next few years, but with Stephenson and Degoey likely to transition to that area and hopefully Sier to come good - I don't see it as an issue at all.
With Collingwood, Grundy is a good age, as are De Goey, Moore, Phillips, Langdon and Maynard while Stephenson is young. The better part of Collingwood's core group and really everyone outside of those guys who are clear best 22 are on the wrong side of 25. That's the primed to win now age group in most situations. And it's fine having a number of them if they're all good as they are. But with the way Collingwood veterans have historically fallen apart in this age group - and we're seeing that drop off even this year Sidebottom, Crisp and Howe starting to drop off, Beams isn't who he was, and Pendlebury who is older isn't who he was either. It's that real regression and in a couple of years Treloar/Adams probably doing the same that leaves me feeling less like Collingwood can continue to contend and feeling more like some more good young players need to be introduced to keep an aging group afloat with the majority of the group on the wrong side of their primes.

Hopefully Sier can join that above young core above and maybe some other younger guys come good. But after those guys I'm seeing mediocre youth (as you'd expect taking few early picks over the years) and with that being the case and those younger good players unlikely to improve much further with only really Moore, Stephenson and Sier likely to improve further on who they are today I'm foreseeing a downward trajectory over the next few years.
 

sr36

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With Collingwood, Grundy is a good age, as are De Goey, Moore, Phillips, Langdon and Maynard while Stephenson is young. The better part of Collingwood's core group and really everyone outside of those guys who are clear best 22 are on the wrong side of 25. That's the primed to win now age group in most situations. And it's fine having a number of them if they're all good as they are. But with the way Collingwood veterans have historically fallen apart in this age group - and we're seeing that drop off even this year Sidebottom, Crisp and Howe starting to drop off, Beams isn't who he was, and Pendlebury who is older isn't who he was either. It's that real regression and in a couple of years Treloar/Adams probably doing the same that leaves me feeling less like Collingwood can continue to contend and feeling more like some more good young players need to be introduced to keep an aging group afloat with the majority of the group on the wrong side of their primes.

Hopefully Sier can join that above young core above and maybe some other younger guys come good. But after those guys I'm seeing mediocre youth (as you'd expect taking few early picks over the years) and with that being the case and those younger good players unlikely to improve much further with only really Moore, Stephenson and Sier likely to improve further on who they are today I'm foreseeing a downward trajectory over the next few years.
You're really clutching at straws. Howe had an interrupted preseason and thus started the year slowly, but is building beautifully and approaching career best form. Crisp, not being the naturally cleanest bloke around, has always started the year a bit sloppy and gotten better as it goes on, which is what is currently occurring. Even Sidey - he had a year out of the box last year, but his recent form is about where he's been for the last decade. Pendles' real contemporary in terms of excellence and age is Selwood, Pendles is tracking better. Beams has just changed teams and is probably adjusting to a change in his role and expectations - way too early to make any call on how he is tracking. I daresay the supposed falling apart of Collingwood veterans has more to do with the party boy culture of the 2010 Premiership team than anything ongoing. All signs suggest we've built a culture of continual improvement, rather than our previous culture where the list was split into developing players and senior players who no longer had development time put into them and hit the booze a bit too hard.

No doubt that trading out stars for talented youngsters would make our future look even healthier, but it's crazy talk as it would make our present a whole lot worse. It's a present where we should be up at the pointy end having a crack at premierships for the next few years.
 
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Saintly Viewed

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As a hypothetical and it's well established that everyone here and inside the club is for the retention of De Goey and Grundy. Or so I'm imagining without crawling through the whole thread.

Assuming the list stays together. Who/what do you all see as the club's greatest need? What's the 1 missing piece that would take the club over the top? Or are there 3-4 pieces/positional needs that require filling?

Overall I'm looking at Collingwood as a weaker side than 2018.

I'm seeing a need for a big, stoppage specialist who goes in and wins first possession (Patrick Cripps equivalent). Hopefully Sier can do that whenever he is back and he needs to be used in that role between now and seasons end to see if he can be that guy. Late 2018 he looked like he had the scope to become something close to Sydney's Josh Kennedy, so maybe he can still become that.

In defence I'm seeing the club being at least one good backman short. Crisp and Howe are terrific but won't be around or this standard forever. Quaynor I was hoping would be that guy as that compliment and maybe he can be, his VFL play is solid. But we need to see it between now and seasons end.

I'm looking for another key defender. Moore's body is unreliable and Dunn/Roughead won't be around forever. Unless Mihocek gets switched back I see it unlikely that solution comes internally though many will hope it's going to be Kelly.

Up forward I want that crumber who hits the scoreboard in a big way and brings the forward pressure (Atu has the speed and pressure) so he can at some point try out for the role but not sure he is capable of the scoreboard impact I'd like, but he could plausibly fill the role. Not convinced it's Brown or Daicos until they step things up a few notches.

Would like someone else who can do damage across half-forward and push up through the mids, but more with a forward leaning.

I'd also love that combo key forward/wing - think Richo/N.Riewoldt on the wing or something like a Westhoff/T.Lynch (Adel) kind of equivalent.

If I'm picking out the perfect players for the various roles I'm looking at something like Cripps/J.McGovern/Z.Williams/Tipungwuti/Rankine/Lukosius as those most appealing of their type.

And ultimately with a lot of those you have to lower your expectation on who you could go for. That might mean Jarryd Lyons rather than Patrick Cripps. Jeff Garlett rather than Tipungwuti. Lewis Johnston (SANFL) instead of Lukosius. S.Motlop instead of Rankine. L.Jones instead of McGovern. But you have to start somewhere and then consider all those who can play those positions/rolls who would be best 22 standard.
It’s an interesting take.

I think we’re actually better this Eason than last.
More mature.
More adept at shutting out the win.

And we haven’t clicked yet.

Not sure im as concerned with the ageing as the bulk of the better talent is ok age wise.

Watching Scott in Thursday he’ll smash the Tony Shaw games record.
He prepares so well.

I like sr36 tjoughts about our historical poor ageing, too much previous partying.

Interesting take but we’re in it up to our eyeballs this season.
 
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Knightmare

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You're really clutching at straws. Howe had an interrupted preseason and thus started the year slowly, but is building beautifully and approaching career best form. Crisp, not being the naturally cleanest bloke around, has always started the year a bit sloppy and gotten better as it goes on, which is what is currently occurring. Even Sidey - he had a year out of the box last year, but his recent form is about where he's been for the last decade. Pendles' real contemporary in terms of excellence and age is Selwood, Pendles is tracking better. Beams has just changed teams and is probably adjusting to a change in his role and expectations - way too early to make any call on how he is tracking. I daresay the supposed falling apart of Collingwood veterans has more to do with the party boy culture of the 2010 Premiership team than anything ongoing. All signs suggest we've built a culture of continual improvement, rather than our previous culture where the list was split into developing players and senior players who no longer had development time put into them and hit the booze a bit too hard.

No doubt that trading out stars for talented youngsters would make our future look even healthier, but it's crazy talk as it would make our present a whole lot worse. It's a present where we should be up at the pointy end having a crack at premierships for the next few years.
At this stage I can only analyse performances to date v last year and past years to make the above assessment. Until they each step up, they haven't.

It’s an interesting take.

I think we’re actually better.
More mature.
More adept at shutting out the win.

And we haven’t clicked yet.

Not sure im as concerned with the ageing as the bulk of the better talent is ok age wise.

Watching Scott in Thursday he’ll smash the Tony Shaw games record.
He prepares so well.

I like sr36 tjoughts about our historical poor ageing, too much previous partying.

Interesting take but we’re in it up to our eyeballs this season.
Collingwood are better in the sense that there is greater personnel availability than 2018 and on paper the list looks more talented with the addition of Beams + Moore and Elliott back from injury. Despite this the relative standard of performance as a team is largely the same with much the same win/loss and % as last year in the H+A season.

On the partying concept, absolutely it makes you age faster. Though were all the guys that collapsed prematurely party boys? Josh Fraser? Dale Thomas? Nick Maxwell? Travis Cloke? Heritier Lumumba? Paul Licuria? Brodie Holland? Sharrod Wellingham? Alan Toovey? Nathan Brown? Jack Anthony? Chris Dawes? Jarryd Blair? Alex Fasolo? It's not just the rat pack. Or even your Rusling/Dick kind of stories where they had injuries start to finish. There just isn't that history of guys sustaining and many in their mid 20s and late 20s seeing their games deteriorate horribly.

I don't disagree that Pendlebury should make it past Shaw as he has avoided major injury through his time and only needs this year/next year to do it which given that history you would reasonably think he will achieve. He probably doesn't have much left in the tank after that though. I don't see him doing a Burgoyne and going into his late 30s having never developed that second position and currently experiencing that decline. Pendlebury is still effective, but that Brownlow quality season from 2011 is long past and he's no longer an elite mid.
 

sideswipe

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At this stage I can only analyse performances to date v last year and past years to make the above assessment. Until they each step up, they haven't.



Collingwood are better in the sense that there is greater personnel availability than 2018 and on paper the list looks more talented with the addition of Beams + Moore and Elliott back from injury. Despite this the relative standard of performance as a team is largely the same with much the same win/loss and % as last year in the H+A season.

On the partying concept, absolutely it makes you age faster. Though were all the guys that collapsed prematurely party boys? Josh Fraser? Dale Thomas? Nick Maxwell? Travis Cloke? Heritier Lumumba? Paul Licuria? Brodie Holland? Sharrod Wellingham? Alan Toovey? Nathan Brown? Jack Anthony? Chris Dawes? Jarryd Blair? Alex Fasolo? It's not just the rat pack. Or even your Rusling/Dick kind of stories where they had injuries start to finish. There just isn't that history of guys sustaining and many in their mid 20s and late 20s seeing their games deteriorate horribly.

I don't disagree that Pendlebury should make it past Shaw as he has avoided major injury through his time and only needs this year/next year to do it which given that history you would reasonably think he will achieve. He probably doesn't have much left in the tank after that though. I don't see him doing a Burgoyne and going into his late 30s having never developed that second position and currently experiencing that decline. Pendlebury is still effective, but that Brownlow quality season from 2011 is long past and he's no longer an elite mid.
You want your drink topped up? Looks half empty.
 

Saintly Viewed

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At this stage I can only analyse performances to date v last year and past years to make the above assessment. Until they each step up, they haven't.



Collingwood are better in the sense that there is greater personnel availability than 2018 and on paper the list looks more talented with the addition of Beams + Moore and Elliott back from injury. Despite this the relative standard of performance as a team is largely the same with much the same win/loss and % as last year in the H+A season.

On the partying concept, absolutely it makes you age faster. Though were all the guys that collapsed prematurely party boys? Josh Fraser? Dale Thomas? Nick Maxwell? Travis Cloke? Heritier Lumumba? Paul Licuria? Brodie Holland? Sharrod Wellingham? Alan Toovey? Nathan Brown? Jack Anthony? Chris Dawes? Jarryd Blair? Alex Fasolo? It's not just the rat pack. Or even your Rusling/Dick kind of stories where they had injuries start to finish. There just isn't that history of guys sustaining and many in their mid 20s and late 20s seeing their games deteriorate horribly.

I don't disagree that Pendlebury should make it past Shaw as he has avoided major injury through his time and only needs this year/next year to do it which given that history you would reasonably think he will achieve. He probably doesn't have much left in the tank after that though. I don't see him doing a Burgoyne and going into his late 30s having never developed that second position and currently experiencing that decline. Pendlebury is still effective, but that Brownlow quality season from 2011 is long past and he's no longer an elite mid.
The numbers of players that have not gone beyond 30 or so is an issue. Agree, far too many.
Though quite a few named, Blair, Fasolo, Anthony, Dawes, Toovey, Wellingham, are just medium talent and quite a few had (have opportunities) at other clubs. Yet the cliff still beckoned and they jumped.
That said, can only improve.

I’m a bit more bullish on Scott and see him as elite. Still.
His display on Thursday was the most evident but he still directs traffic we’ll week in and week out.
Though I just don’t see him as Brownlow contending.
Too many many days are now competing so it will be hard to snatch a Brownlow.

Of our players in the next year or so that could win a Brownlow might be Treloar, De Goey, Sidey, Grundy.
 

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Knightmare

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The numbers of players that have not gone beyond 30 or so is an issue. Agree, far too many.
Though quite a few named, Blair, Fasolo, Anthony, Dawes, Toovey, Wellingham, are just medium talent and quite a few had (have opportunities) at other clubs. Yet the cliff still beckoned and they jumped.
That said, can only improve.

I’m a bit more bullish on Scott and see him as elite. Still.
His display on Thursday was the most evident but he still directs traffic we’ll week in and week out.
Though I just don’t see him as Brownlow contending.
Too many many days are now competing so it will be hard to snatch a Brownlow.

Of our players in the next year or so that could win a Brownlow might be Treloar, De Goey, Sidey, Grundy.
I could also have mentioned Reid.

There are some medium talents, but Ben Reid, Dale Thomas, Travis Cloke, Nick Maxwell, Heritier Lumumba, Alan Didak, Dane Swan, Josh Fraser. These are all guys who at some point or another played All-Australian standard football or better. *Note Fraser wasn't an All-Australian but his '06 form was All-Australian worthy.

Guys like Licuria, Lockyer, Holland, Rocca, O'Bree. They were all well respected also. We're not talking about rat pack guys. Those guys dropped away completely and were capable footballers.

The sign for me with Pendlebury is how much his contested ball winning and stoppage work has dropped away over the years, with his tackling/pressure dropping away this year as that next element starting to leave him. He's always had those elements plus, the freakish composure/evasion, skills and vision. So it's more than he's just a couple of steps slower now. I view him still as a very good midfielder. But like with Sidebottom/Beams/Adams. He's not a top 20 mid in the competition. Treloar is the only one on form so far who has a case but for me also sits just a fraction outside of that with his kicking below average to poor.

I only see Grundy and De Goey as Brownlow contenders from here if umpires can remove their inside midfielder bias and open their eyes to players in other positions. Sidebottom had the one off great season last year but has dropped below his previous standards of play from recent years even beyond last year. Treloar perhaps if he keeps racking up the footy as umpires heavily favour mids, but he's not someone I would be awarding the medal to on his current standard of play.
 

Thatsmyname

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If I take 27 years of age as the starting point (generally) of a players demise (and there is scientific proof for why it happens at that age, over production of keratin leading to cell scarring affecting mental acuity, physical agility, strength and speed) And look who is under 27 years of age I get 14 to 16 players depending on your definition of top 22:
Grundy
Moore
De Goey
Treloar
Langdon
Stephenson
Scharenberg
Hoskin-Elliott
Adams
Crisp
Maynard
Phillips
Mihocek
Elliott
Sier
Aish

I don't see it as grimly as Knightmare but there's only one ruck and one key position and not enough genuine speed.

But with two thirds of our best 22 still in their prime and some quality vets (and the odd kid, Quaynor, Kelly etc) we should be able to stay in play with some smart trading/recruiting.

I remember doing the math in 07 when Geelong's super team started their 100+ drubbing wins every week (coincidentally 6 months after Dean the Weapon Robinson in daily contact with Stephen Dank was put in charge of their 'fitness' program) and 90% of their top 25 was between the ages of 22 and 27 years of age, pretty much everyone was in their prime.

We have at least 8 players over 27 that are top 22:

Pendlebury
Sidebottom
Mayne
Beams
Howe
Cox
Dunn
Thomas
Roughead?
Wells?
 
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TradeDraft

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With Collingwood, Grundy is a good age, as are De Goey, Moore, Phillips, Langdon and Maynard while Stephenson is young. The better part of Collingwood's core group and really everyone outside of those guys who are clear best 22 are on the wrong side of 25. That's the primed to win now age group in most situations. And it's fine having a number of them if they're all good as they are. But with the way Collingwood veterans have historically fallen apart in this age group - and we're seeing that drop off even this year Sidebottom, Crisp and Howe starting to drop off, Beams isn't who he was, and Pendlebury who is older isn't who he was either. It's that real regression and in a couple of years Treloar/Adams probably doing the same that leaves me feeling less like Collingwood can continue to contend and feeling more like some more good young players need to be introduced to keep an aging group afloat with the majority of the group on the wrong side of their primes.

Hopefully Sier can join that above young core above and maybe some other younger guys come good. But after those guys I'm seeing mediocre youth (as you'd expect taking few early picks over the years) and with that being the case and those younger good players unlikely to improve much further with only really Moore, Stephenson and Sier likely to improve further on who they are today I'm foreseeing a downward trajectory over the next few years.
So we need to think of Trading players when they are 25 as they start to go Backwards?
 

jonbe54

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Age and the effects of ageing are offset by experience gained and chemistry within the playing group. Pendles also has never been a grunt mid, although he always takes his turn. His go has always been to capitalize on opportunities both for himself and his team mates with his superior positioning and vision. The effects are evident to those of us who watch him closely but although it has had the effect of bringing him - somewhat - back to the field there are very few who can match his attributes.

Still a top mid and linkman, as has been said before he slices you up with a thousand little cuts. The jink to free up a side for handballing to advantage, the tap on to set up a running teammate, directing traffic to create an outnumber or advantageous matchup mid play.

More and more often now he will run to positions that stress a defensive line and allow a deeper or more effective entry. He has become almost a dummy champion - drawing the best of the opposition mids to allow his younger team mates more freedom to run. Not flashy and not often noticed, he does this with the smooth economy of motion and effort that has characterized his every move since making the senior team.

Nobody does these things like Pendlebury and his worth is ever so much more than mere stats and speed - he was never a Ferrari but much more a Rolls Royce and such he remains - for a little while yet.
 

Saintly Viewed

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Age and the effects of ageing are offset by experience gained and chemistry within the playing group. Pendles also has never been a grunt mid, although he always takes his turn. His go has always been to capitalize on opportunities both for himself and his team mates with his superior positioning and vision. The effects are evident to those of us who watch him closely but although it has had the effect of bringing him - somewhat - back to the field there are very few who can match his attributes.

Still a top mid and linkman, as has been said before he slices you up with a thousand little cuts. The jink to free up a side for handballing to advantage, the tap on to set up a running teammate, directing traffic to create an outnumber or advantageous matchup mid play.

More and more often now he will run to positions that stress a defensive line and allow a deeper or more effective entry. He has become almost a dummy champion - drawing the best of the opposition mids to allow his younger team mates more freedom to run. Not flashy and not often noticed, he does this with the smooth economy of motion and effort that has characterized his every move since making the senior team.

Nobody does these things like Pendlebury and his worth is ever so much more than mere stats and speed - he was never a Ferrari but much more a Rolls Royce and such he remains - for a little while yet.
That’s pretty right.

Sometimes people get to caught up in the glamorous as opposed to the consistent good play and team stuff.

I think we’re ok placed overall, but as always it’s about continuous improvement.

At years end (hopefully an earned successful year) we will have some players move on, some new brought in.

At least this season we are in the hunt not just theoretically but in actual reality.
 

TradeDraft

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That’s pretty right.

Sometimes people get to caught up in the glamorous as opposed to the consistent good play and team stuff.

I think we’re ok placed overall, but as always it’s about continuous improvement.

At years end (hopefully an earned successful year) we will have some players move on, some new brought in.

At least this season we are in the hunt not just theoretically but in actual reality.
1st time for about 4-5 seasons where we actually started as Flag Chance
 

jonbe54

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Very true Saintly we are far better off this year than we were last - both in ladder position and player availability - something those nervous nellies should remember.

We are in the frame remembering that peak form is aimed for at season's end we are looking good. Having come through a couple of tight situations in the first six rounds we are nicely placed one back and one out as they say in pacing lol.
 

Saintly Viewed

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Very true Saintly we are far better off this year than we were last - both in ladder position and player availability - something those nervous nellies should remember.

We are in the frame remembering that peak form is aimed for at season's end we are looking good. Having come through a couple of tight situations in the first six rounds we are nicely placed one back and one out as they say in pacing lol.
Then let loose in the sprint lane (though if you are one out one back it’s not really the sprint lane).
 

sr36

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At this stage I can only analyse performances to date v last year and past years to make the above assessment. Until they each step up, they haven't.

.
Sorry, but my point is that you're not really analysing, you're just trying to find evidence that may support your opinion. You've started with a theory that Collingwood players will continue to deteriorate quickly and then looked for supporting evidence. You've then ignored context which might explain any small drops in performance that you are noticing before you come to the conclusion that your data does actually support your view. You'd need to do a much more holistic review than you appear to have done if you are including guys like Crisp and Howe as evidence of early decline. You'd need to analyse Crisp's early season form against his previous year's early season form. Howe's form so far against other years where he was coming back from an injury. Sidebottom's form against standard long-run form not just against his outlier fabulous year. Beams against other top-liners who have moved from a bottom club to a top club, with an adjusted role. Then you'd have to look at whether a couple of quieter games from these guys is enough to warrant claims of a downward trend caused by some factors at the club. Then you'd have to look at other older players within the club that may not support your perspective, such as Chris Mayne, Jarrod Roughhead.

Collingwood are better in the sense that there is greater personnel availability than 2018 and on paper the list looks more talented with the addition of Beams + Moore and Elliott back from injury. Despite this the relative standard of performance as a team is largely the same with much the same win/loss and % as last year in the H+A season.

On the partying concept, absolutely it makes you age faster. Though were all the guys that collapsed prematurely party boys? Josh Fraser? Dale Thomas? Nick Maxwell? Travis Cloke? Heritier Lumumba? Paul Licuria? Brodie Holland? Sharrod Wellingham? Alan Toovey? Nathan Brown? Jack Anthony? Chris Dawes? Jarryd Blair? Alex Fasolo? It's not just the rat pack. Or even your Rusling/Dick kind of stories where they had injuries start to finish. There just isn't that history of guys sustaining and many in their mid 20s and late 20s seeing their games deteriorate horribly.

I don't disagree that Pendlebury should make it past Shaw as he has avoided major injury through his time and only needs this year/next year to do it which given that history you would reasonably think he will achieve. He probably doesn't have much left in the tank after that though. I don't see him doing a Burgoyne and going into his late 30s having never developed that second position and currently experiencing that decline. Pendlebury is still effective, but that Brownlow quality season from 2011 is long past and he's no longer an elite mid.
If you're going to assume that shorter careers for Collingwood players is going to continue, obviously it isn't to do with us wearing black and white stripes. There has to be a reason for us to have shorter careers than players from other clubs. If there was a reason it occurred in the past, what was that reason? Is that reason still there? What you are doing with your assumption that Collingwood players will have shorter careers is akin to assuming that Geelong and Hawthorn and St Kilda will always be top teams because they were top teams during this period when a lot of Collingwood players didn't make it into their thirties.
 
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