Can we Afford both De Goey and Grundy and Moore

Knightmare

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Sorry, but my point is that you're not really analysing, you're just trying to find evidence that may support your opinion. You've started with a theory that Collingwood players will continue to deteriorate quickly and then looked for supporting evidence. You've then ignored context which might explain any small drops in performance that you are noticing before you come to the conclusion that your data does actually support your view. You'd need to do a much more holistic review than you appear to have done if you are including guys like Crisp and Howe as evidence of early decline. You'd need to analyse Crisp's early season form against his previous year's early season form. Howe's form so far against other years where he was coming back from an injury. Sidebottom's form against standard long-run form not just against his outlier fabulous year. Beams against other top-liners who have moved from a bottom club to a top club, with an adjusted role. Then you'd have to look at whether a couple of quieter games from these guys is enough to warrant claims of a downward trend caused by some factors at the club. Then you'd have to look at other older players within the club that may not support your perspective, such as Chris Mayne, Jarrod Roughhead.



If you're going to assume that shorter careers for Collingwood players is going to continue, obviously it isn't to do with us wearing black and white stripes. There has to be a reason for us to have shorter careers than players from other clubs. If there was a reason it occurred in the past, what was that reason? Is that reason still there? What you are doing with your assumption that Collingwood players will have shorter careers is akin to assuming that Geelong and Hawthorn and St Kilda will always be top teams because they were top teams during this period when a lot of Collingwood players didn't make it into their thirties.
It can be analysed just as easily from the perspective of how many have really hung onto their play into their late 20s and 30s. Or in comparison to other club who had lots of players who were once good and then have either sustained or dropped off. Even beyond simply listing those who fell off the cliff or declined prematurely.

Those comparable clubs who have had success at similar stages - Geelong/St Kilda/Hawthorn/Sydney/West Coast/Fremantle/Western Bulldogs/Adelaide/Port Adelaide have had much greater longevity than the Pies as those other teams over the past 10 seasons and been motivated to sustain.

Ablett/Taylor/Selwood/Hawkins/Lonergan/Ottens/Kelly/Johnson/Bartel/Enright/Ling/Chapman/Corey/Hunt. Geelong got exceptional long-term service from that group and all have been exceptional up to and beyond the age of 30. Lonergan and Hawkins at 30 arguably hit career best form. A lot of them because Geelong wanted to get younger got moved on prematurely and could have played longer, or did later for other clubs.

Lake/Hale/Gibson/Roughead/Lewis/Franklin/Mitchell/Hodge. Those guys didn't forget how to play at 30. Gibson and Mitchell had no drop off. Lake was terrific upon moving to Hawthorn after 30 and remained terrific. Hodge incredibly looked done and he's still playing good football.

Collingwood haven't had that guy who sustained like this or hit their prime at 30. Buckley won a Brownlow at 31 and is the closest thing to that but he was better in 99/00. Leon Davis? He played his better footy late career and in his final season as a 29/30 year old as a defender played career best footy having never been exposed to the position before, though that's still not playing into his 30s. Otherwise there isn't anyone else who comes close to ticking either box. And neither of those teams had Didak/D.Thomas/Reid level players who were done before 28, 25 and 24 respectively with Matthew Egan that only sad story from either team never getting back to that All-Australian form.

I can dig up mirroring cases from the other clubs I listed who have been competitive over the span with each of their situations reflecting favourably by contrast to Collingwood.

As an outsider. I can't say I know exactly why it is the case. I have suspicions which I've spoken about in the past. But there isn't anything that is suggesting to me that things have changed with Collingwood's players in their later 20s continuing to show signs of premature decline.
 

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sr36

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It can be analysed just as easily from the perspective of how many have really hung onto their play into their late 20s and 30s. Or in comparison to other club who had lots of players who were once good and then have either sustained or dropped off. Even beyond simply listing those who fell off the cliff or declined prematurely.

Those comparable clubs who have had success at similar stages - Geelong/St Kilda/Hawthorn/Sydney/West Coast/Fremantle/Western Bulldogs/Adelaide/Port Adelaide have had much greater long-jeopardy than the Pies as those other teams over the past 10 seasons and been motivated to sustain.

Ablett/Taylor/Selwood/Hawkins/Lonergan/Ottens/Kelly/Johnson/Bartel/Enright/Ling/Chapman/Corey/Hunt. Geelong got exceptional long-term service from that group and all have been exceptional up to and beyond the age of 30. Lonergan and Hawkins at 30 arguably hit career best form. A lot of them because Geelong wanted to get younger got moved on prematurely and could have played longer, or did later for other clubs.

Lake/Hale/Gibson/Roughead/Lewis/Franklin/Mitchell/Hodge. Those guys didn't forget how to play at 30. Gibson and Mitchell had no drop off. Lake was terrific upon moving to Hawthorn after 30 and remained terrific. Hodge incredibly looked done and he's still playing good football.

Collingwood haven't had that guy who sustained like this or hit their prime at 30. Buckley won a Brownlow at 31 and is the closest thing to that but he was better in 99/00. Leon Davis? He played his better footy late career and in his final season as a 29/30 year old as a defender played career best footy having never been exposed to the position before, though that's still not playing into his 30s. Otherwise there isn't anyone else who comes close to ticking either box. And neither of those teams had Didak/D.Thomas/Reid level players who were done before 28, 25 and 24 respectively with Matthew Egan that only sad story from either team never getting back to that All-Australian form.

I can dig up mirroring cases from the other clubs I listed who have been competitive over the span with each of their situations reflecting favourably by contrast to Collingwood.

As an outsider. I can't say I know exactly why it is the case. I have suspicions which I've spoken about in the past. But there isn't anything that is suggesting to me that things have changed with Collingwood's players in their later 20s continuing to show signs of premature decline.
I think you missed my point. I'm not saying it wasn't an issue previously. I'm saying that the examples you are using to support your expectation of it being an ongoing issue are really weak examples. And that it's an odd assumption of it continuing without knowing the causal factors, particularly as weve had a big cultural shift at the club, which would likely impact issues that may have produced the phenomena.
 

Knightmare

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I think you missed my point. I'm not saying it wasn't an issue previously. I'm saying that the examples you are using to support your expectation of it being an ongoing issue are really weak examples. And that it's an odd assumption of it continuing without knowing the causal factors, particularly as weve had a big cultural shift at the club, which would likely impact issues that may have produced the phenomena.
That's why I initially brought up the worse than expectation play of our current player. Sidebottom, Beams, Crisp, Howe, Pendlebury, Adams, Thomas are all performing to a weaker standard than they did in 2018. The thing each of them have in common is that they're over 25 and in that age bracket where matching with the club's recent and now not so recent history the same story of the same problems is being told again.

In a lighter form hopefully as fingers crossed there are no Dale Thomas, Didak or Reid type stories where they fall off the cliff and become irrelevant overnight, but we're still seeing progressive drops in keeping with the drops we've seen of Pendlebury and before him Swan, where the drop offs are more pronounced still than would be expected when looking at veteran performance past and present from other competitive sides.
 

sr36

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That's why I initially brought up the worse than expectation play of our current player. Sidebottom, Beams, Crisp, Howe, Pendlebury, Adams, Thomas are all performing to a weaker standard than they did in 2018. The thing each of them have in common is that they're over 25 and in that age bracket where matching with the club's recent and now not so recent history the same story of the same problems is being told again.
.
A fair few of these guys had standout career years last year. We're 6 weeks in and they're yet to hit the peaks of last year. I just think you're jumping the gun massively in using them as evidence of deline. If Stevo was in that age grouo, i think you'd be using him as an example of guys declining in that age group, as I don't think he's hit his peaks of last year yet either. I think you'd be very concerned that he seems to not be kicking it as far.
 

Knightmare

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A fair few of these guys had standout career years last year. We're 6 weeks in and they're yet to hit the peaks of last year. I just think you're jumping the gun massively in using them as evidence of deline. If Stevo was in that age grouo, i think you'd be using him as an example of guys declining in that age group, as I don't think he's hit his peaks of last year yet either. I think you'd be very concerned that he seems to not be kicking it as far.
A storyline to track re. the 25+'s. If they all start playing as they did in 2018, happy days. But I'm skeptical with all of them performing well below that level.

Stephenson? I don't see his play being notably worse than last year. More so different.

He hasn't dropped below 14 disposals yet (only 8/26 games did he achieve 14 or more disposals in 2018). He could bring his forward pressure up a level that should be higher for him if I'm to be critical of his performances so far.

Stephenson will kick his goals, but he should also progressively get greater opportunity to push up the ground than last year. So I wouldn't be using that as the complete indicator into how he is going. First three games last year he didn't kick any goals, so he hit the scoreboard more in some games than in others.
 

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Two of our most promising younger players Nathan Murphy and Tyler Brown are unfortunately sidelined but could make an impact in the '
second half of the season
 

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sr36

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A storyline to track re. the 25+'s. If they all start playing as they did in 2018, happy days. But I'm skeptical with all of them performing well below that level.

Stephenson? I don't see his play being notably worse than last year. More so different.

He hasn't dropped below 14 disposals yet (only 8/26 games did he achieve 14 or more disposals in 2018). He could bring his forward pressure up a level that should be higher for him if I'm to be critical of his performances so far.

Stephenson will kick his goals, but he should also progressively get greater opportunity to push up the ground than last year. So I wouldn't be using that as the complete indicator into how he is going. First three games last year he didn't kick any goals, so he hit the scoreboard more in some games than in others.
It is a story line to track, but I'm pretty confident that it'll be a case of "Move along. Nothing to see here." Particularly as Sidebottom, Thomas, Adams, Crisp and possibly Howe all just had career best years whilst in the age bracket. Most of them will gradually decline, but not at at a faster rate than what occurs at other clubs.

My take on where these guys are at so far this year. I'm just not seeing the decline that you are seeing.

Adams is playing to expectations - not at his second half of the year form yet, but with an interrupted preseason that's expected. He's in better form this year than at the beginning of either of the previous two seasons when he also had early interruptions.
Crisp - Has tended to be scrappy early in seasons, but still not as consistent as early last year, but he's one who last year hit a level where he will all of a sudden be copping a fair bit of opposition strategic focus in order to stop his influence, so there's no way I'd be putting his form down to decline.
Sidey - down on his awesomeness of last year, but on par with the vast majority of his career. Way too early to suggest that a bloke who made a massive jump in performance last year is all of a sudden in free fall.
Howe - no preseason and was out of sorts for a couple of games, but is hitting some excellent form. No idea what you're seeing here
Thomas - down on last year where he came from nowhere and was suddenly as efficient as Luke Bruest. Is he that good? or was it just a freak year? The only real form difference is less efficiency around the big sticks.
Beams - At a new club so too early to call. And if he has declined, you can't really put it down to a club that he hasn't played with for the last four seasons.
Pendles - Showing signs of the standard level of decline that you'd expect for a bloke of his age. I don't think he'll be one who goes on for as long as Burgoyne because he's not one who can afford to lose much pace, whereas Burgoyne even after a fair bit of physical decline is still an above average AFL athlete. And frankly,it's pretty bizarre to be using a guy who will probably play 300 games at a more consistently high level than anyone else I can think of, as part of an example to suggest that Collingwood players fall off a cliff prematurely.

I'm delighted in how Stevo is going. The kid is an absolute ripper who will tear teams to shreds once he physically develops.
 

Knightmare

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It is a story line to track, but I'm pretty confident that it'll be a case of "Move along. Nothing to see here." Particularly as Sidebottom, Thomas, Adams, Crisp and possibly Howe all just had career best years whilst in the age bracket. Most of them will gradually decline, but not at at a faster rate than what occurs at other clubs.

My take on where these guys are at so far this year. I'm just not seeing the decline that you are seeing.

Adams is playing to expectations - not at his second half of the year form yet, but with an interrupted preseason that's expected. He's in better form this year than at the beginning of either of the previous two seasons when he also had early interruptions.
Crisp - Has tended to be scrappy early in seasons, but still not as consistent as early last year, but he's one who last year hit a level where he will all of a sudden be copping a fair bit of opposition strategic focus in order to stop his influence, so there's no way I'd be putting his form down to decline.
Sidey - down on his awesomeness of last year, but on par with the vast majority of his career. Way too early to suggest that a bloke who made a massive jump in performance last year is all of a sudden in free fall.
Howe - no preseason and was out of sorts for a couple of games, but is hitting some excellent form. No idea what you're seeing here
Thomas - down on last year where he came from nowhere and was suddenly as efficient as Luke Bruest. Is he that good? or was it just a freak year? The only real form difference is less efficiency around the big sticks.
Beams - At a new club so too early to call. And if he has declined, you can't really put it down to a club that he hasn't played with for the last four seasons.
Pendles - Showing signs of the standard level of decline that you'd expect for a bloke of his age. I don't think he'll be one who goes on for as long as Burgoyne because he's not one who can afford to lose much pace, whereas Burgoyne even after a fair bit of physical decline is still an above average AFL athlete. And frankly,it's pretty bizarre to be using a guy who will probably play 300 games at a more consistently high level than anyone else I can think of, as part of an example to suggest that Collingwood players fall off a cliff prematurely.

I'm delighted in how Stevo is going. The kid is an absolute ripper who will tear teams to shreds once he physically develops.
I'll address Pendlebury given the strength of your position on him and given he's further down the line with more evidence he is the more interesting to discuss.

2011 was his clear prime where it wouldn't have been unreasonable to consider him after Ablett that next best midfielder in the competition. Each year since has been a slight regression, year on year.

What hasn't happened with Pendlebury since which should be the key takeaway and this is a consistent thing I've seen at Collingwood with veterans and players as they hit that mid 20s mark is Pendlebury hasn't added anything new to his game. Whether it's contested marking, a second position. There isn't anything new or improved to make him a better footballer or expand on his already elite game.

In a Burgoyne to Pendlebury comparison (and I view prime Pendlebury as the better of the two) but what has made what Burgoyne has done so special during his tenure with Hawthorn is after dropping off in his last two years, Burgoyne actually became a better footballer with 2014-2017 in my view the best 4-year stretch during his career. A ridiculous thing to be doing as a star of our game from the ages of 31-36 and something I don't see Pendlebury as someone who I see continuing his decline and being well and truly retired by 36. Burgoyne's two best years were 06/07 and his early 08 form was great but otherwise I look at his play with Hawthorn in his 30s as being his best as his most consistent extended span of years which is unusual for someone in their 30s as veterans are notorious as with young developing talents to lack consistency.

Burgoyne is a rare case and an exception with few becoming better or more consistent after 30. But there are players who can in their late 20s and early 30s either have career seasons or add new things to their games to at least adjust their games so that they can hold up for longer.
 
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I'll address Pendlebury given the strength of your position on him and given he's further down the line with more evidence he is the more interesting to discuss.

2011 was his clear prime where it wouldn't have been unreasonable to consider him after Ablett that next best midfielder in the competition. Each year since has been a slight regression, year on year.

What hasn't happened with Pendlebury since which should be the key takeaway and this is a consistent thing I've seen at Collingwood with veterans and players as they hit that mid 20s mark is Pendlebury hasn't added anything new to his game. Whether it's contested marking, a second position. There isn't anything new or improved to make him a better footballer or expand on his already elite game.

In a Burgoyne to Pendlebury comparison (and I view prime Pendlebury as the better of the two) but what has made what Burgoyne has done so special during his tenure with Hawthorn is after dropping off in his last two years, Burgoyne actually became a better footballer with 2014-2017 in my view the best 4-year stretch during his career. A ridiculous thing to be doing as a star of our game from the ages of 31-36 and something I don't see Pendlebury as someone who I see continuing his decline and being well and truly retired by 36. Burgoyne's two best years were 06/07 and his early 08 form was great but otherwise I look at his play with Hawthorn in his 30s as being his best as his most consistent extended span of years which is unusual for someone in their 30s as veterans are notorious as with young developing talents to lack consistency.

Burgoyne is a rare case and an exception with few becoming better or more consistent after 30. But there are players who can in their late 20s and early 30s either have career seasons or add new things to their games to at least adjust their games so that they can hold up for longer.
If Pendles won a Brownlow in 2011 it would've been a very worthy Brownlow. Swan was just insane that season though.
 

Knightmare

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If Pendles won a Brownlow in 2011 it would've been a very worthy Brownlow. Swan was just insane that season though.
I felt Pendlebury was the better of the two in 2011.

I considered Swan's 2010 season a stronger season than 2011. Still a sensational season but what did drop away was his pressure/tackling/defensive running that year with 2010 the one year he really brought into that side of the game fully and seemed to balance that in best with everything else he did.

2011 was an incredible season for so many. Dale Thomas' season to borrow a word you just used, was 'insane.' I've never seen that level of tackling energy and enthusiasm and I'm not sure I have since. His tackle numbers are deceivingly low. His pressure acts felt through the room that year, even on a level beyond 2010 when Ross Lyon was saying he was the best in the game.

Travis Cloke was making a case that he was the best key forward in the game. And with 192 marks (95 contested) and 69 goals he had a case. A season where just about across the board statistically comfortable PBs.

And with all that said, I thought Ben Reid was the club's most influential. 161 marks and his intercept marking was excellent but the way he was launching those kicks. Unreal.

Leon Davis. Who knew he could do what he did in defence that year? As good a season as I've ever seen from a Collingwood defender.

I've never seen a better H+A season from Collingwood and I'm not sure there has ever been a better one. Without checking I'm assuming 2011 was the highest % H+A season the club has ever achieved, or if not would be very close to it. Unreal season and it felt like the vast majority of the list peaked that year.
 

sr36

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I'll address Pendlebury given the strength of your position on him and given he's further down the line with more evidence he is the more interesting to discuss.

2011 was his clear prime where it wouldn't have been unreasonable to consider him after Ablett that next best midfielder in the competition. Each year since has been a slight regression, year on year.

What hasn't happened with Pendlebury since which should be the key takeaway and this is a consistent thing I've seen at Collingwood with veterans and players as they hit that mid 20s mark is Pendlebury hasn't added anything new to his game. Whether it's contested marking, a second position. There isn't anything new or improved to make him a better footballer or expand on his already elite game.

In a Burgoyne to Pendlebury comparison (and I view prime Pendlebury as the better of the two) but what has made what Burgoyne has done so special during his tenure with Hawthorn is after dropping off in his last two years, Burgoyne actually became a better footballer with 2014-2017 in my view the best 4-year stretch during his career. A ridiculous thing to be doing as a star of our game from the ages of 31-36 and something I don't see Pendlebury as someone who I see continuing his decline and being well and truly retired by 36. Burgoyne's two best years were 06/07 and his early 08 form was great but otherwise I look at his play with Hawthorn in his 30s as being his best as his most consistent extended span of years which is unusual for someone in their 30s as veterans are notorious as with young developing talents to lack consistency.

Burgoyne is a rare case and an exception with few becoming better or more consistent after 30. But there are players who can in their late 20s and early 30s either have career seasons or add new things to their games to at least adjust their games so that they can hold up for longer.
Burgoyne isn't a good comparison regarding longevity. Like Gary Ablett, he's been physically awesome, so even after declining physically, he can still play at a very very high level on a flank - Pendles isn't in that same physical category.
In terms of Burgoyne, at Port he was poised for greatness for a patch, but then injuries and maybe some other factors that I'm unaware of intervened and his performance dropped. What should really have been his great years and made his highs even higher than Pendles weren't very good years for him. But then he later got his body right and got back to being a gun.
Better comparisons to Pendles are Selwood and Mitchell as the three of them have been absolute stars for a very long time without really having any physical advantages. Like Mitchell and Selwood, Pendles doesn't really have the physical scope to become a forward or defender in his later, physically declined years. Mitchell was pushed by the Hawks at about age 33 and even though it's recent, I think they would have pushed him a year earlier if as much defensive intensity was needed then as is needed now. Selwood's career has tracked at extremely similar, but in my view slightly lower levels to Pendles all the way through and looks set to last about the same length. Ultimately though, 300 games of greatness from a bloke with no real physical advantages doesn't suggest that his career has been shortened or declined more quickly becasue of some mysterious career shortening phenomena.
 

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I felt Pendlebury was the better of the two in 2011.

I considered Swan's 2010 season a stronger season than 2011. Still a sensational season but what did drop away was his pressure/tackling/defensive running that year with 2010 the one year he really brought into that side of the game fully and seemed to balance that in best with everything else he did.

2011 was an incredible season for so many. Dale Thomas' season to borrow a word you just used, was 'insane.' I've never seen that level of tackling energy and enthusiasm and I'm not sure I have since. His tackle numbers are deceivingly low. His pressure acts felt through the room that year, even on a level beyond 2010 when Ross Lyon was saying he was the best in the game.

Travis Cloke was making a case that he was the best key forward in the game. And with 192 marks (95 contested) and 69 goals he had a case. A season where just about across the board statistically comfortable PBs.

And with all that said, I thought Ben Reid was the club's most influential. 161 marks and his intercept marking was excellent but the way he was launching those kicks. Unreal.

Leon Davis. Who knew he could do what he did in defence that year? As good a season as I've ever seen from a Collingwood defender.

I've never seen a better H+A season from Collingwood and I'm not sure there has ever been a better one. Without checking I'm assuming 2011 was the highest % H+A season the club has ever achieved, or if not would be very close to it. Unreal season and it felt like the vast majority of the list peaked that year.
Except against bloody Geelong. Oh the premiership should have been a cakewalk...

Judd robbed Swan of the 2010 Brownlow was the biggest highway robbery and showed what an umpire's pet Judd was. 2011 was a square up for Swanny, not that he didn't deserve it that year too.
 

sirlothie

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Burgoyne isn't a good comparison regarding longevity. Like Gary Ablett, he's been physically awesome, so even after declining physically, he can still play at a very very high level on a flank - Pendles isn't in that same physical category.
In terms of Burgoyne, at Port he was poised for greatness for a patch, but then injuries and maybe some other factors that I'm unaware of intervened and his performance dropped. What should really have been his great years and made his highs even higher than Pendles weren't very good years for him. But then he later got his body right and got back to being a gun.
Better comparisons to Pendles are Selwood and Mitchell as the three of them have been absolute stars for a very long time without really having any physical advantages. Like Mitchell and Selwood, Pendles doesn't really have the physical scope to become a forward or defender in his later, physically declined years. Mitchell was pushed by the Hawks at about age 33 and even though it's recent, I think they would have pushed him a year earlier if as much defensive intensity was needed then as is needed now. Selwood's career has tracked at extremely similar, but in my view slightly lower levels to Pendles all the way through and looks set to last about the same length. Ultimately though, 300 games of greatness from a bloke with no real physical advantages doesn't suggest that his career has been shortened or declined more quickly becasue of some mysterious career shortening phenomena.
I think watching an entire career of 300 games goes so quick these days as we get older that we think they should have a lot left but really a 300 game career is an extraordinarily long career, Buckley seemed like he was around forever but never got there but time snuck up with Pendlebury and all of a sudden he's in his twilight when it doesn't seem long ago he was our brightest young star... A lifetime in football is not long. In reality he is very durable to be able to still play BOG football at 31 with 280 odd games behind him and probably only has a couple of years left at best after this and will retire without a positional change.
 

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Collingwood have an aging list (second oldest in the competition behind Hawthorn) and need more quality youth. Lukosius fits Collingwood's playing list optimally as a player in a short kicking, high possession system who can get you 10 marks a game and start meaningful offensive drives himself. Rankine as a forward/mid also brings something very different but helpful as a freakish ground level player with a complete game. Gold Coast isn't a club that can get the most out of either of them. Collingwood is the optimal spot for both to have their talents maximised. Add two high first round picks to them and that better balances the club's aging list and creates much needed list flexibility with just fitting Grundy and De Goey over the long run a task. I'd see such a deal as entirely one sided towards Collingwood.

Where my evaluation primarily differs is I view Lukosius and Rankine as players who can play and produce today. You don't need to wait. Lukosius on Collingwood in a gameplan as present where there is lots of short kicks and overpossessing and honour his leads is ideally suited and he can be as good as any in the competition. It's not only those 10 marks a game but he has potentially best in competition vision and kick placement and could have the highest % of his kicks from anywhere around the ground leading towards scoring opportunities - whether he marks it on half-back or is kicking i50. On Gold Coast where they continually ignore his leads and really underpossess and try to run it from defence and he's not going to fulfill his potential there and will continue to look ordinary unless they radically change their style of game and build their offensive ball movement around him.

De Goey is one of the better players in the competition and can be a multi time All-Australian general forward. Stephenson and Moore also plausibly could. Overall I'd categorise the three as players who at seasons end could be overvalued commodities. De Goey some are talking about like he's Ablett and the best in the game (he's neither of those things). Stephenson fresh off winning the Rising Star and looking like he will have another exceptionally strong season some may view as the best from the 2017 draft (I don't believe he'll be a best 3 player to come out of the 2017 draft) and Moore if he gets through the season healthy and continues to build on his present form could become an overvalued commodity from the standpoint that some may forget about the injury risks that come with him and the chance you may not get games from him.

Comparing those guys to Lukosius and Rankine (the two best talents drafted in the last few years) and I'd consider if it was Stephenson/Moore doing that deal straight up. Give me Gold Coast's two first rounders and it becomes a no brainer with the pointy end of the draft this year and next year looking good and if necessary those picks can become liquid assets that can very easily be flipped for something better or more immediate that can be considered.
Sorry, you might well be excellent at picking out young talent, I don’t know. But you are categorically insane in some of the trades for which you advocate. Objectively insane. And I say that with the greatest of respect.
 

sirlothie

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Sorry, you might well be excellent at picking out young talent, I don’t know. But you are categorically insane in some of the trades for which you advocate. Objectively insane. And I say that with the greatest of respect.
He just thinks outside the box, that's why we love him. I think even he knows such trades will never happen. He's just shooting the **** hypothetically.
 

Knightmare

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Burgoyne isn't a good comparison regarding longevity. Like Gary Ablett, he's been physically awesome, so even after declining physically, he can still play at a very very high level on a flank - Pendles isn't in that same physical category.
In terms of Burgoyne, at Port he was poised for greatness for a patch, but then injuries and maybe some other factors that I'm unaware of intervened and his performance dropped. What should really have been his great years and made his highs even higher than Pendles weren't very good years for him. But then he later got his body right and got back to being a gun.
Better comparisons to Pendles are Selwood and Mitchell as the three of them have been absolute stars for a very long time without really having any physical advantages. Like Mitchell and Selwood, Pendles doesn't really have the physical scope to become a forward or defender in his later, physically declined years. Mitchell was pushed by the Hawks at about age 33 and even though it's recent, I think they would have pushed him a year earlier if as much defensive intensity was needed then as is needed now. Selwood's career has tracked at extremely similar, but in my view slightly lower levels to Pendles all the way through and looks set to last about the same length. Ultimately though, 300 games of greatness from a bloke with no real physical advantages doesn't suggest that his career has been shortened or declined more quickly becasue of some mysterious career shortening phenomena.
Ablett who you mention now has always had the forward craft in addition to the midfield craft and still even today can do either to an elite standard. He's a freak and the best since Buckley.

Your mentions of Selwood and Mitchell work in with my point.

Selwood while he's not receiving forwards minutes this year (in my view he should be rotated there more rather than being relegated to playing outside so much) has actually proven a very effective forward when he has rotated through there as he often did in 2013/2014. My view is Geelong aren't utilising him correctly. He does his best work on the inside, but like with Dangerfield, he needs to be rotated forward. And he like Dangerfield can actually play deep in the front half and do damage (something Pendlebury has never developed). So my view very much is that Selwood does have a second position he can and should play some minutes in.

Sam Mitchell later also developed a second position and he's another where again he's a freak of an inside player but in his final (was it two seasons? - happy to be fact checked on how many years he did this) he spent a lot of time playing across a back flank. And he looked really good with his ball use exceptional. Collingwood to their credit tried the same with Pendlebury but while Mitchell as effective in this role, Pendlebury was ineffective and was unable to have any kind of impact in the position.

Except against bloody Geelong. Oh the premiership should have been a cakewalk...

Judd robbed Swan of the 2010 Brownlow was the biggest highway robbery and showed what an umpire's pet Judd was. 2011 was a square up for Swanny, not that he didn't deserve it that year too.
Agree with you on Judd. Ablett/Pendlebury/Swan by that stage were all playing decisively better football.

Geelong were that one bogey team in 2011 that the club just couldn't solve. The club just felt like they ran out of legs through the finals with Reid unable to play as he had during the season hurting as much as anything.
 

jonbe54

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Reid was clearly 'on one leg' during the GF and the failure to take him off Hawkins cost as back to back - Tarrant was available and would have done a good enough job to get us across the line.
 

JB1975

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Pendles is our best clearance player this year, still putting in elite performances, and alongside Grundy has been our most effective player through the middle of the ground.

The old bastard is going okay.
 

sideswipe

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Pendles is our best clearance player this year, still putting in elite performances, and alongside Grundy has been our most effective player through the middle of the ground.

The old bastard is going okay.
Agree. In addition to his 5 consecutive AA teams (2010-14), there has only been one season since (2017) that he hasn't made the squad. Might argue this is a fairly objective measure of him still being top 10-15 mids in the comp.
 
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