Can we finish top 2?

[cmndstab]

In my mind, to win the premiership this year, we really need to finish top 2. I like our chances of beating almost anyone over here in Adelaide, but very few of the top 4 contenders at their home grounds.

Looks like it's going to be very tough, though. If GWS win today against Port, there are six sides on equal wins with us in Sydney, Geelong, Bulldogs, West Coast, GWS and us, so even if we win all our matches from hear on, we're going to be relying on them to lose or percentage.

Hard to see anyone catching up to Hawthorn, so there's one spot left. Geelong have a similarly easy run home as us and percentage in the bank. They've got the Bulldogs, Essendon, Richmond, Brisbane and Melbourne. We'll need them to drop at least one of those, otherwise chances are their percentage will only grow.

Hopefully the Bulldogs will now fall away. Losing to Geelong will "help" although in reality we're probably better if they win that match and then lose others.

Our final match against West Coast may end up deciding which of us ends up top 2/top 4.

Sydney have it a bit tougher with a few matches against top 8 sides and travel out to the west, but their fate is still in their hands.


What do you think - can we make it? I think we need to if we're going to turn this year into a premiership.

 

[TheLeftFist8]

We can but need to win every game and hope in doing so our % grows up to 140% (a big ask).

With a lower % we need some combo of Hawks losing 2, or Cats/Swans/Giants 1…definitely very possible.

My guess is we finish 4th and play Hawks at the G in a Qualifying Final…wonderful opportunity for redemption.

 

[VSTone]

top 2 is gonski for mine... that was last nights prize...

can we get top 4? is the better question...?
i think we might be staring at a 5-6 finish if the giants get up today

to come
Hawks - Rich, Carl, Melb, Norf, WC, Pies
Cats - WB, Ess, Rich, Bris, Melb
Swans - Freo, Port, Saints, Norf, Rich
GWS - Port, Rich, GCS, WC, Freo, Norf
Crows - Ess, Bris, Freo, Port, WC
WB - Geel, Norf, Pies, Ess, Freo
WC - Pies, Freo, GWS, Hawks, Crows

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Top #2 is still attainable if we win all our remaining games & improve our percentage.

Losing last night just makes it now less likely than more likely.

 

[Red mist]

Subbed. West Coast will drop.

 

[beartoo]

We can if things go our way. Need to win all of our remaining matches and to belt the blazes out of Dons, Brisbane and, hopefully, Pear. So many ways this can play out. We could lose to Pear and Wet Toast and finish 7th or 8th.
First scenario, please.

 

[Tex200]

Top 2 is doubtful now, not impossible. Must win every game and win 2-3 of them by very big margins. Need a result or 2 to go our way. No longer ours to lose.

Top 4 is still ours to lose provided we win our last 5 which includes a key victory over WCE.

 

[spenze]

Yes we can. Plenty of matches to go and not every team in the eight will win every match

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Only if we win all our remaining games, and even then it might not be enough.

If we drop 1 of our remaining games then top 4 may also be a tough ask.

 

[Sam_Malone]

Round 19

Geelong vs Western Bulldogs was an important game before they had a number of injuries. Now, Geelong ion a canter.

Round 21 -

Geelong vs Richmond @ the MCG is an important game
St kilda vs Syndey @ ES is an important game

Round 22 -

Showdown
Hawks v west coast in Perth

I don't think top 2 is out of the question. If we are good enough, we will make its.

I also think Geelong at the MCG will be very different to last night.

 

[Tex200]

Yes we can. Plenty of matches to go and not every team in the eight will win every match

Fixture is not overly kind. Happy we will climb above WCE as they have Hawks then us in last 2 rounds.

North v Syd in R22 could help us as could Cats v Dogs next week. Maybe North v GWS r23 and Port v GWS today.

Otherwise it's hard to see too many upsets which will see a number of teams level on points with % to determine spots

Edit - Sam is right, Saints v Swans may help too

 

[PCORF]

Yes, if we win our last 5 games there is no room for error now. Still happy with top 4, even 3rd spot is good as we'll go into an away QF as underdogs. Should have beaten Hawthorn earlier in the year. Even winning 4 from 5 games is enough for the top 4, you'd expect most of the 12-5 teams to drop a game or two.

I remember in 2003, was sitting in 2nd spot after 19 rounds but had lost 5 really close ones that year. In the end we threw away our finals chances and dropped to 6th.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

If we play well and win all games I think we will be top 2 , there will be upsets

Got a feeling we drop one more

 

[pjcrows]

Priority 1 is winning all of our remaining 5 games. If we do that then the lowest we will finish, IMO, is 4th.

From there, we can finish Top 2 if two of Geelong, Sydney and GWS drop a game. That's possible.

If we won last night it was almost locked. But we didn't so now we have to win and wait.

I have us winning all 5, but not catching enough %. We finish 3rd facing Geelong in a Qualifying Final at the G.

 

[Alwaysacrow]

Upsets will happen, they always do. Hopefully it won't be us. I actually picked Stkilda this round as a roughy (got that one right at least). % will determine it for 2 or 3 teams I think. It's hard to believe though that after winning 8 in a row though that we could miss out on top 4.

 

[Sam_Malone]

Priority 1 is winning all of our remaining 5 games. If we do that then the lowest we will finish, IMO, is 4th.

From there, we can finish Top 2 if two of Geelong, Sydney and GWS drop a game. That's possible.

If we won last night it was almost locked. But we didn't so now we have to win and wait.

I have us winning all 5, but not catching enough %. We finish 3rd facing Geelong in a Qualifying Final at the G.

That's where I have us as well.

1) Hawks vs 4) GWS Friday night @ MCG
2) Geelong vs 3) Crows Saturday night @ MCG

5) Sydney vs 8) North Melbourne Saturday afternoon @ SCG
6) west coast vs 7) Western Bulldogs Sunday afternoon @ Perth

Week 2:

GWS vs Sydney @ Stadium Australia - Saturday night
Geelong vs West Coast @ MCG - Friday night

Week 3:

Crows vs Sydney @ Adelaide Oval Friday night
Hawks vs Geelong @ MCG Saturday night

Week 4

Anything can happen.

 

[Hell Boy6669]

Elephant in the room, I think the showdown is going to be tough.

Ports Grand final and their mission is to do better than the crows, not win flags.

 

[CrowsB4hoes]

Of course we can. We are 2nd on points now and every game for the rest of the season we should be favorites to win. Just need to keep winning. It's in our hands.

 

[Apsaalooke]

Don't see it happening now. Finishing top 2 would have given us good chance of a flag which would be a great effort. We'll now need an extraordinary effort to win it from outside the top 2 given the travel involved.

Arrgh. I feel a parvovirus coming on

 

[pjcrows]

Elephant in the room, I think the showdown is going to be tough.

Ports Grand final and their mission is to do better than the crows, not win flags.

Of course it will be tough. But if we can't take care of a team outside of the 8 with our Top 4 aspirations on the line then we won't win a premiership.

 

[1990crow]

Reasses after we have won our next 3. Last night was a major setback.

 

[Red Crow]

I did a ladder predictor during the week and still had us second even with a loss to Geelong. It didn't require any crazy upsets. Everything was pretty feasible, but we must get 100+ point wins against both Essendon and Brisbane. Non-negotiable, its the only way we can get the percentage required. Given Geelong also play both these teams, we do have to hope they don't get huge wins (no more than 10 goals).

So, its possible, but not entirely within our own control. Barring any catastophic mishaps though, I still think we're a lock for top 4.

 

[little graham]

Everyone but Whorethorn struggling atm.

Four out of the next five games at home is a real advantage. Key players can be rested in the next two weeks.


Chins up. The season is only beginning.

 

[Wood_Duck]

Geelong wont lose another game. So we are shot for top 2.

 

[Elite Crow]

90% chance of rain against Essendon which will make a big win harder