Can we finish top 2?

[Drakescoffeecake]

I had us finishing 3rd and playing Geelong. We should make up percentage over Bombers, Brisbane and Fremantle. We should get over the line against Port and Eagles. 4 of the next 5 at Adelaide Oval....thank you very much!

Percentage over Fremantle? Yr avin a larf. Lyon will bring us down to their level and we'll win by 3 goals but score less than 12 ourselves. I'd say there's a better chance of boosting the % against West Coast at home than Freo at their dung heap

 

[marty36]

Some top notch analysis right there. Must have really strained.

I'm not claiming to be right in any outcome, my predictions and my criticisms have a common theme- falling short in big games. If we succeed in big games it will be clear that my predictions are in error, and I'll be stoked.

There are 5 teams in the eight on the same points, you would have to say we aren't alone, saying that what was your prediction at the beginning of the year and how we would travel and where we would finish?

 

[marty36]

Percentage over Fremantle? Yr avin a larf. Lyon will bring us down to their level and we'll win by 3 goals but score less than 12 ourselves. I'd say there's a better chance of boosting the % against West Coast at home than Freo at their dung heap

Unless it's closer enough to the end of the season where it's accepted by clubs if you are out, players go for their surgery and take a break. We could play a freo with a total squad of 25 players

 

[adelaidecrows]

I don't mind this. Reasoned post. I agree many of us gloss over things that others obsess over , but I think its a matter of perspective at times. Ultimately not winning a flag is seen as failure by some , while others think finishing top 4 is good , top 6 is ok.

I think the nature of the competition means that the pessimistic will always have issue with how the club goes. Unless you are a Hawthorn supporter then there will always be 'something wrong'' with your club.

I agree many of us look at it in small blocks ie yearly instead of long term , and this pattern of inconsistency is lost. On a personal level I look back over 18 years and know we had our chances. I tend to look at it as ''luck of the draw'' rather than any systemic failure. It cant be a huge problem if we have made so many prelims. Not moving past the prelims and the why needs to be looked at more closely. Did we lose those prelims at the club and /or selection or were the other team better and why were they better?

Its not as easy as a throwaway line on the internet

Failure to win a premiership is different to a failed season depending on the circumstance. Premierships are incredibly hard to win and 17 clubs will not win the premiership each year. There are so many variables that impact a season. It's very much like formula 1. It seems like such a simple premise, beat your opposition anywhere, anytime and anyhow (within the rules). But being 1% deficient in any area could be enough to cost a premiership. So yeah, predicting failure is easy to do and thats why at the beginning of each year, the reigning premier is usual premiership favourite. The Crows have had plenty of chances over the years but for some reason it just never worked. But nothing wrong with being hopeful one is just around the corner.

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

saying that what was your prediction at the beginning of the year and how we would travel and where we would finish?

Owwww my brain

 

[marty36]

Owwww my brain

What's wrong with it?

 

[Glenno23]

Some top notch analysis right there. Must have really strained.

I'm not claiming to be right in any outcome, my predictions and my criticisms have a common theme- falling short in big games. If we succeed in big games it will be clear that my predictions are in error, and I'll be stoked.

The old win-win

 

[Mattrox]

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...le-feast-in-the-run-home-20160725-gqdgwe.html

 

[Bovo]

Percentage over Fremantle? Yr avin a larf. Lyon will bring us down to their level and we'll win by 3 goals but score less than 12 ourselves. I'd say there's a better chance of boosting the % against West Coast at home than Freo at their dung heap

One of the main reasons Fremantle has performed so badly is their change of game plan. 91 points is the average against, against Freo. 132 being the highest score and 47 (Bombers) lowest. Teams can score against them these days.

 

[Realslimshady2]

In my mind, to win the premiership this year, we really need to finish top 2. I like our chances of beating almost anyone over here in Adelaide, but very few of the top 4 contenders at their home grounds.

Looks like it's going to be very tough, though. If GWS win today against Port, there are six sides on equal wins with us in Sydney, Geelong, Bulldogs, West Coast, GWS and us, so even if we win all our matches from hear on, we're going to be relying on them to lose or percentage.

Hard to see anyone catching up to Hawthorn, so there's one spot left. Geelong have a similarly easy run home as us and percentage in the bank. They've got the Bulldogs, Essendon, Richmond, Brisbane and Melbourne. We'll need them to drop at least one of those, otherwise chances are their percentage will only grow.

Hopefully the Bulldogs will now fall away. Losing to Geelong will "help" although in reality we're probably better if they win that match and then lose others.

Our final match against West Coast may end up deciding which of us ends up top 2/top 4.

Sydney have it a bit tougher with a few matches against top 8 sides and travel out to the west, but their fate is still in their hands.


What do you think - can we make it? I think we need to if we're going to turn this year into a premiership.

I dont think we will end up top 2 but being top 4 is the key to winning the premiership.
Missing out on top 2 should not in any way be an excuse for not making the grand final.

I have us coming 3rd and playing Geelong first round of finals. If that were the case would it be at the G or Simmons?

 

[Glenno23]

I dont think we will end up top 2 but being top 4 is the key to winning the premiership.
Missing out on top 2 should not in any way be an excuse for not making the grand final.

I have us coming 3rd and playing Geelong first round of finals. If that were the case would it be at the G or Simmons?

G. To many fans to travel

 

[Elite Crow]

18 and no rain is now forecast for Sunday, beautiful!

 

[BRL121]

18 and no rain is now forecast for Sunday, beautiful!

You're really salivating for a bloodbath, aren't you EC?

 

[Elite Crow]

You're really salivating for a bloodbath, aren't you EC?

Not salivating but preying

 

[Southerntakeover]

The old win-win

Nah not at all.

I don't consider being right a 'win', I'm devastated when we fail in these big games.

 

[Southerntakeover]

I think you are taking some of the comments that include comparisons with Port supporters as a bit literal and way to seriously. Heard of joking around? banter? Take a chill pill.

I don't agree that I am really.

You made a comment, I replied, you replied again. Exchange concluded at that point. No harm, no foul. It was only when Jenny started threshing around illogically that this became an issue.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Wouldn't we always be trying to score goals and restrict the opposition?

How does "going for percentage" change what a team does?

See our game against Freo etc earlier in the year when we looked to be keen to just get off the park uninjured? Don't do that.

In any event, yeah, I think players are always trying, but I don't think that means that not having a particular target and motivation can inspire them to greater feats. I'm sure we all remember the infamous 2008 '100 point' Saints win over Essendon in the last round.

 

[WetCrow1991]

I'm keen for a 100+ point win on Sunday, anything less is pretty poor given how bad Essendon and how much percentage the Crows need, AND how poorly we played against the Cats.

 

[GreyCrow]

The last time ( Gold Coast) I thought we should have won by 100 I was disappointed. I will just take a win and forward movement on the %

 

[Tex200]

Swans are our target IMO

They play

Freo away
Port
Saints away
North away
Richmond

They should win all those but may find it hard to build too much %.

 

[Red Crow]

Swans are our target IMO

They play

Freo away
Port
Saints away
North away
Richmond

They should win all those but may find it hard to build too much %.

Reckon they drop one of Saints or North personally. Which is great, because if we can win all our games, we'll be certs for top 4.

 

[ep2018]

The Friday night round 23 game is shitty for you guys in this regard, if it were on monday then you'd know how much you'd have to beat us by to pinch 2nd from the cats with %, as I think you both will finish on equal points but one finishing higher due to percentage. In 2007 port finished 2nd above us by a very small %, we were knocked out in straight sets that year. I feel we'd have made the GF had we finished 2nd. dont let it happen to you.

We're roadkill away from home so I think we'll lose by a bit, hopefully with the week off after the game we dont leave anything in the tank and win it.

 

[cmndstab]

I dont think we will end up top 2 but being top 4 is the key to winning the premiership.
Missing out on top 2 should not in any way be an excuse for not making the grand final.

I have us coming 3rd and playing Geelong first round of finals. If that were the case would it be at the G or Simmons?

Top 4 is generally "all" you need to be a real premiership threat, because it all but guarantees you a spot in a prelim final, but if we finish in 3rd or 4th, it means we have to beat a top 4 side away from home to get into the grand final.

I'm not sure we've got it in us to knock off any of Hawthorn, Geelong or Sydney away.

 

[Tex200]

Reckon they drop one of Saints or North personally. Which is great, because if we can win all our games, we'll be certs for top 4.

The other game to watch will be North v GWS which could open the door also.

Geelong have second sewn up IMO. Provided they get over WB on Friday, they have no more top 8 sides as well as the Ess/Bris double which will build %.

 

[betterthanu]

Playing around with the ladder predictor is impossible this year. Change a margin here and there and the whole make up of the finals flips on its head. Safe to say we cant afford to take our foot off the throat of Essendon or Brisbane if we're in a position to bury them.