Can we make the 8 in 2023?

[Grape Bear]

the crows and bombers have an easier run home than we do, with potential to boost percentage significantLuy in their double ups. I do worry that either of those teams can pip us by percentage even if we end the season on equal wins. that north game will be the one that will come back to bite us, we really should have won that game.

the log jam seems to be around 6 to 12 this year, anything can still happen with the teams just below us, particularly Geelong and Sydney that will be getting personnel back on the park at the back end of the seaso.

we will need to win all the games we are favourites in and win them well to get our percentage up. I hope the guys stay motivated, as a finals run this year will really set us up for a serious go at 2024.

 

[VolgaBoatman]

the crows and bombers have an easier run home than we do, with potential to boost percentage significantLuy in their double ups. I do worry that either of those teams can pip us by percentage even if we end the season on equal wins. that north game will be the one that will come back to bite us, we really should have won that game.

the log jam seems to be around 6 to 12 this year, anything can still happen with the teams just below us, particularly Geelong and Sydney that will be getting personnel back on the park at the back end of the seaso.

we will need to win all the games we are favourites in and win them well to get our percentage up. I hope the guys stay motivated, as a finals run this year will really set us up for a serious go at 2024.

I have us finishing 6th on the Ladder Predictor. Perhaps a little bit optimistic, with us losing only 3 games for the rest of the year, this would be ahead of St Kilda in 7th, Adelaide in 8th, Gold Coast in 9th and Essendon in 10th.

 

[King Huskii]

I have Freo finishing 6th

Play Geelong at home in an elimination final

 

[Fred Ziffel]

I am reasonably confident we will win the next three against Richmond, GWS and Essendon.
We are playing very good footy now.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I’d almost be disappointed missing the 8 now with how we are playing but it just shows how hard it is to come back from 2-5 where we can really only lose like 4 more games to be confident we get there.

I think what helps is we aren’t relying on one or two players (as shown in coaches votes) and we now have a clear and working gameplan everyone is onboard with. It should be repeatable every week and it will have to be as none of the next three are guaranteed.

Crazy we’ll have had to win 7 games in a row to have any chance of making finals

 

[Grape Bear]

We also haven’t been tested in the wet…

 

[arsesmart]

I am reasonably confident we will win the next three against Richmond, GWS and Essendon.
We are playing very good footy now.

We'll need to be on full alert playing Richmond when we're coming off the bye and they aren't. Continuity can play a factor.

Although post-2016, there is some evidence that teams who haven't had the bye yet might be more fatigued coming into that game and negating the advantage they have from continuity.

 

[Grape Bear]

Not to be a negative Nelly, but the other thing I’m a bit wary of is how our run is on the back of very young players that could potentially drop towards the end of the season just because they don’t have the run in the legs just yet. That’s why it was important to take advantage of our early softish draw. It’s frustrating that we’ve pretty much smashed the harder stretch of our draw - as I said, it’s the North game that I am particularly pissed about, but St Kilda was also gettable.

 

[Sweetback]

We should be aiming for top four now. Highly unlikely but it should be the aim.

 

[Frigate]

It is looking better than last year, if you can take momentum into the end of the season, rather than dropping off. Will come down to the continual improvement from the players that have not set the world on fire in the past. Banfield would have to be most improved. Treacy starting to show some signs ( I have been a critic of his ability to take marks), and a whole range of players that are doing their role. O'meara has been impressive in the past 4 weeks. The fab 4 are not Brayshaw, Serong, Young and Jackson! What a combination!

I have us on a minimum of 13 wins for the season. We can finish as high as 5th, but unlikely, and we could finish in 10th. Regardless how it goes from here, it is great to have a team playing exciting footy, and knowing you can match it with some big clubs away from home. I thought this year was a complete write off, so a nice turn around in form!

 

[gungho]

By my calculation we will have to win 10 of the last 12 games to finish top 4. Not impossible but certainly not easy, and there would have to be a few big upsets in there. I'm not convinced we are ready this year - need Amiss, Treacy and Jackson to play another 30 games.

 

[Joao]

I reckon 7th or 8th and a honourable loss (maybe 10 points) in an away final (preferable MCG) is a good result if we can't get top 4. More finals experience on the G and in the middle bracket for fixtures.

Although winning said final is probably better again.

**** it, what are we paying for the flag?

 

[ignoramus]

By my calculation we will have to win 10 of the last 12 games to finish top 4. Not impossible but certainly not easy, and there would have to be a few big upsets in there. I'm not convinced we are ready this year - need Amiss, Treacy and Jackson to play another 30 games.

Harder to see which games we could possibly drop

 

[Spirit Level]

Richmond home - should win
GWS away - win
Essendon H - win
Dogs away - 50:50 - very important match
Carlton H - should win although the Blues will play their grand final
Pies A - L
Sydney H - should win - depends if Sydney get their mojo back
Cats away - will put this down as a loss although wouldn't be surprised if we got them
Brisbane H - 50:50 - should have a red hot crack given Brisbanes patchy away form
Eagles A - win
Port H - 50:50 - Another huge game
Hawks A - win

 

[DocT]

Richmond home - should win
GWS away - win
Essendon H - win
Dogs away - 50:50 - very important match
Carlton H - should win although the Blues will play their grand final
Pies A - L
Sydney H - should win - depends if Sydney get their mojo back
Cats away - will put this down as a loss although wouldn't be surprised if we got them
Brisbane H - 50:50 - should have a red hot crack given Brisbanes patchy away form
Eagles A - win
Port H - 50:50 - Another huge game
Hawks A - win

I agree with you 99%, just not quite as confident as 50:50 vs the Dogs away after the thumping they already gave us - an away win would be a huge turn around. That leaves us with another 8 wins, a total of 14 and a top 6 finish.

 

[Grape Bear]

I agree with you 99%, just not quite as confident as 50:50 vs the Dogs away after the thumping they already gave us - an away win would be a huge turn around. That leaves us with another 8 wins, a total of 14 and a top 6 finish.

The way we seem to be operating this year, we take all the games we’ve projected as losses and drop the ones we are favoured to win.

 

[Fyfetheknife]

Richmond home - should win
GWS away - win
Essendon H - win
Dogs away - 50:50 - very important match
Carlton H - should win although the Blues will play their grand final
Pies A - L
Sydney H - should win - depends if Sydney get their mojo back
Cats away - will put this down as a loss although wouldn't be surprised if we got them
Brisbane H - 50:50 - should have a red hot crack given Brisbanes patchy away form
Eagles A - win
Port H - 50:50 - Another huge game
Hawks A - win

We will need 13 wins to make the 8. That's 7 more. I'm going to be a little bit more conservative and assume that sides like Sydney and Geelong both get form/players back and beat us. I'll mark these down as losses:

Pies A: L
Sydney H: L
Cats A: L
Brisbane H: L
Port H: L

No reason we can't beat both Port and Brisbane given they're both at home, or Cats away given we got them there last year, but for arguments sake let's say we go down. That leaves us 6-10.

Then if I give us wins in these fixtures:

Carlton H: W
Eagles A: W
Hawks A: W

We go to 9-10. Which means our next month is absolutely crucial in securing a spot in the finals:

Richmond H: W
GWS A: W
Essendon H: W
Bulldogs A: W

Win all four and I'd say we have locked ourselves in, needing only 3 more wins from the last 8.
If we drop a couple, we then need to pick those losses up against sides such as Sydney, Geelong, and Port.

Realistically, if we want to contend anyway we need to be beating sides like Richmond and GWS, who despite having had some strong showings this season are weaker sides who we need to be separating ourselves from. The Essendon and Bulldogs games are crucial as they are sides we are in direct competition with at the moment for spots in the lower half of the eight.

Overall, if I were to try and find a middle ground between pessimism and optimism, we can probably finish 14-9.

I can see us losing to the Pies, Port (who are flying and seem to have found a rhythm) Geelong away, and a renewed Sydney side who will get players back and likely go on a bit of a run in the back half.

The truth will probably land somewhere in between. We drop a couple of winnable games (GWS, Essendon), and pick up a couple of upsets (Port, Brisbane).

Either way, I'd be really disappointed if we miss out. It will stunt out growth quite a bit in terms of experience and belief. That Pies SF would have been invaluable for a lot of our players who will likely never play in front of a crowd that size again unless we make a GF. Another couple of big finals like that, ideally winning one, would be massive.

I believe.

 

[Mogumber]

One game at a time!

 

[anchor man]

Richmond home - should win
GWS away - win
Essendon H - win
Dogs away - 50:50 - very important match
Carlton H - should win although the Blues will play their grand final
Pies A - L
Sydney H - should win - depends if Sydney get their mojo back
Cats away - will put this down as a loss although wouldn't be surprised if we got them
Brisbane H - 50:50 - should have a red hot crack given Brisbanes patchy away form
Eagles A - win
Port H - 50:50 - Another huge game
Hawks A - win

I would not pencil in a win against he Giants. Don't underestimate how good they are.
I think we make the eight, but where, I hav eno idea.
But I am sure that the palyers would never pencil any game in as a win... even the Yellas.

 

[Alfonz]

Might need 14 wins to make it. Tried doing a few ladder predictions by flipping a few 50/50 results and usually had 6th - 9th on a range of 14 to 13 wins. A mix of teams in these spots. Mostly Essendon, Fremantle, Geelong, Adelaide. Sometimes St Kilda, but I think they are the most likely team to drop out (their season depends largely on the next 2 weeks). Our % is inferior to all these teams by some margin and hard to see any big wins for us except the derby, and even then they will probably try hard and make us work for it.

 

[heypenny]

If we're going to make the 8:

• we must win all of Richmond (H), Essendon (H), Carlton (H), Eagles, and Hawks (A)

That puts us at 11 wins. And we need to snag 2 or 3 of the next group:

• GWS (A), Sydney (H), Port (H), Brisbane (H), Cats/Bulldogs (A)

That's all very achievable however we can't drop games that we must win (i.e the first group). I have a feeling that we will slip somewhere which will make it difficult.

 

[Fyfetheknife]

One game at a time!

Ultimately, yeah. For the players and coaches. Fun to speculate though.

 

[ozzie69]

It remains to be seen how much missing Darcy for a month impacts our momentum.

 

[Madas]

Richmond home - W
GWS away - L
Essendon H - W
Dogs away - W
Carlton H - W
Pies A - L
Sydney H - W
Cats away - L
Brisbane H - L
Eagles A - W
Port H - L
Hawks A - L

Geez it’s gonna be tight
I’m thinking around 12 wins just missing the eight and absolutely kicking ourselves over the NM Loss

I think the Dogs game could be 50:50 and I also have a sneaky suspicion we are going to roll the pies for the upset of the year just like we did to Naarm last year (but I’m not brave enough to tip it )

 

[pK75]

Richmond home - W
GWS away - L
Essendon H - W
Dogs away - W
Carlton H - W
Pies A - L
Sydney H - W
Cats away - L
Brisbane H - L
Eagles A - W
Port H - L
Hawks A - L

Geez it’s gonna be tight
I’m thinking around 12 wins just missing the eight and absolutely kicking ourselves over the NM Loss

I think the Dogs game could be 50:50 and I also have a sneaky suspicion we are going to roll the pies for the upset of the year just like we did to Naarm last year (but I’m not brave enough to tip it )

I think we’ll go undefeated for the rest of the year and storm into a top 4 spot