Prediction Can we win the 2016 premiership

[go you pups]

Already written off Hawthorn who are 8/3? They only get better as the year goes on.

Hawthorns lack of key forwards and a gun full back pulls them back somewhat, I think they will make a SF/PF but not sure how their spine holds up now to get them further than that.

Big ask on their lesser likes and smalls to get the job done at the moment. IMO our spine is better than theirs now and I don't even rate our spine too highly.

 

[ScragCity]

Hawthorns lack of key forwards and a gun full back pulls them back somewhat, I think they will make a SF/PF but not sure how their spine holds up now to get them further than that.

Big ask on their lesser likes and smalls to get the job done at the moment. IMO our spine is better than theirs now and I don't even rate our spine too highly.

Oh yeah I forgot that you are one of those types who obsesses over ”talls” and ”spines”

Funny that you are writing them off but then saying that we have a better “spine” in the same post and yet they beat us. Melbourne probably have a better “spine” too. Didnt help them much.

 

[go you pups]

Oh yeah I forgot that you are one of those types who obsesses over ”talls” and ”spines”

Funny that you are writing them off but then saying that we have a better “spine” in the same post and yet they beat us. Melbourne probably have a better “spine” too. Didnt help them much.

Frawley and McEvoy are their best and most mature talls now, they would need massive efforts from their medium types in Stratton, Gunston, Gibson etc also to give support to their kids in O'Brien, Sicily etc. I reckon Norf would overpower them if they went even in midfield.

Sydney will get them also, Hawthorn's smaller forward line will struggle against Sydney's adaptability down back. Sydney are top dogs at the moment imo.

Lake, Roughead and Hale are far too big a loss now to cover. Not sure if Schoenmakers is fit currently also, but he won't have the luxury of bigger bodies around him making him the 3rd tall. You can never write them off, but I think they'll be exposed come crunch time.


Go through all the premiership winning sides after the Camry Crows Jarman lead forwardline in the pre-flooding days (1999-onwards) and point out who didn't have a spine. I can only think of one to be honest.

 

[ScragCity]

Frawley and McEvoy are their best and most mature talls now, they would need massive efforts from their medium types in Stratton, Gunston, Gibson etc also to give support to their kids in O'Brien, Sicily etc. I reckon Norf would overpower them if they went even in midfield.

Sydney will get them also, Hawthorn's smaller forward line will struggle against Sydney's adaptability down back. Sydney are top dogs at the moment imo.

Lake, Roughead and Hale are far too big a loss now to cover. Not sure if Schoenmakers is fit currently also, but he won't have the luxury of bigger bodies around him making him the 3rd tall. You can never write them off, but I think they'll be exposed come crunch time.


Go through all the premiership winning sides after the Camry Crows Jarman lead forwardline in the pre-flooding days (1999-onwards) and point out who didn't have a spine. I can only think of one to be honest.

TL;DR

 

[Deadly Darcy]

Is top 4 really that important now with the bye in between the H&A games and finals? One *could* argue that with the added week off for everyone, that the winner of the QFs could well be at a disadvatage having only played 1 game of football in 26 days (That's if they play the Sunday in rd 23 and play a Friday night prelim) going into a prelim.

All states leagues have their final H&A games the same weekend as Rd 23, so can't even give players a run there. Very interested to see how this pans out come finals time actually. Reckon this almost levels it up, and if a team in the bottom part of the 8 has a healthy list, they could steal it.

Edit: take out the travelling part, obviously nobody wants to travel, but say we play a top 4 team here.. That's more what i'm meaning.

I haven't delved into whether stats back this up, but it feels like home ground advantage has gone to another level when playing interstate this year. Probably because the top end of the ladder is so even but it's no surprise that GWS lost in Adelaide and Geelong and beat us and Hawthorn at home to me. Likewise Eagles - home v away, Adelaide home v away etc etc.. Playing away against the interstaters feels like a rope dangling that we really need to avoid by ended as far up as we can.

 

[Deadly Darcy]

Already written off Hawthorn who are 8/3? They only get better as the year goes on.

They've been ok and could absolutely win it but I don't think or expect they will. They have far less depth at the 16-32 player mark on their list than say we or GWS do in my opinion. Their top end stars are still terrific but roughy and lake are clearly holes they won't be able to fill. We should have beaten them and would expect to do so next time. I think a few clubs were mentally stuck in Hawthorns aura of '12-15 early on. They are good but aren't the monsters they were.

 

[murphy2bedabest]

I haven't delved into whether stats back this up, but it feels like home ground advantage has gone to another level when playing interstate this year. Probably because the top end of the ladder is so even but it's no surprise that GWS lost in Adelaide and Geelong and beat us and Hawthorn at home to me. Likewise Eagles - home v away, Adelaide home v away etc etc.. Playing away against the interstaters feels like a rope dangling that we really need to avoid by ended as far up as we can.

How do we end up as far as we can? Top 2 ?

By winning as many games, including interstate as we can.

 

[ScragCity]

They've been ok and could absolutely win it but I don't think or expect they will. They have far less depth at the 16-32 player mark on their list than say we or GWS do in my opinion. Their top end stars are still terrific but roughy and lake are clearly holes they won't be able to fill. We should have beaten them and would expect to do so next time. I think a few clubs were mentally stuck in Hawthorns aura of '12-15 early on. They are good but aren't the monsters they were.

Yeah their backline is absolutely decimated from Lake retiring

Frawley Gibson Stratton Birchall go alright.

If he was that important you would think they might have offered him another contract.

Ill give you Roughy though.

 

[VogonProsthetnic]

When was the last time we won in Perth or Adelaide? Unless you finish top 2 it's going to be very difficult to make the GF. Really need Geelong, Hawks or North to finish top 2 can't see that happening atm

 

[gangsta deluxe]

North are a massive chance for top 2.

One that will be further cemented should we win today.

 

[Werewolf]

When was the last time we won in Perth or Adelaide? Unless you finish top 2 it's going to be very difficult to make the GF. Really need Geelong, Hawks or North to finish top 2 can't see that happening atm

2010 in Perth and 2011 in Adelaide, but that should change soon!

 

[Deadly Darcy]

Yeah their backline is absolutely decimated from Lake retiring

Frawley Gibson Stratton Birchall go alright.

If he was that important you would think they might have offered him another contract.

Ill give you Roughy though.

Did I say decimated? I said holes I think you'll find..... Their 16-32 player depth is the bigger issue IMO anyway which is where some of the up and comers are starting to excel and swans just seem to keep finding players albeit the heeney/mills free hits have helped.

 

[Wetdog]

The first half of the year has told us that:

- we are a team that wins the matches we should win against teams outside the top eight;
- we can beat other top eight teams at home; and
- we are super competitive against any team in any conditions.

If you work off that basis, i.e. we continue to win the matches we should, win half of the 50/50 matches, and lose where we are underdogs against top eight sides in foreign conditions, then I have us at 8-3 in the back half of the season.

v Port (AO) - W
v Geelong (E) - 50/50
v Swans (SCG) - L
v Richmond (E) - W
v GCS (CS) - W
v St Kilda (E) - W
v Geelong (SS) - L
v North Melbourne (E) - 50/50
v Collingwood (E) - W
v Essendon (E) - W
v Fremantle (S) - W

This will put us at 16-6 for the season, which has been enough to secure fourth spot on the ladder from 2012-2015. If we make the top four, we can win the flag. Bring it on.

 

[Dogs Rule]

2010 in Perth and 2011 in Adelaide, but that should change soon!

Got to break that drought this week. Must win against the Power. We're a better side and we need to get the job done.

 

[Super Hans]

I reckon every team in the top eight could, all depends who has luck at the right end of the year.

There's only one standout team for me this year, Sydney.

 

[Pugz89]

Potentially they could with the rest being of great help, but if it were all interstate games they had to play on the run in to the GF then it be unlikely

Though since the McIntyre system was abandoned after 1999 no side who finished outside the top 4 has won a prelim, wonder if that changes now

2/3 ain't bad. Hope Rob hasn't lost his ticket either.

 

[cleveland]

Haha no guys didnt lose the ticket luckily and was a pleasure collecting it

Go dogs what a year

 

[Bemoreboyddog]

Is top 4 really that important now with the bye in between the H&A games and finals? One *could* argue that with the added week off for everyone, that the winner of the QFs could well be at a disadvatage having only played 1 game of football in 26 days (That's if they play the Sunday in rd 23 and play a Friday night prelim) going into a prelim.

All states leagues have their final H&A games the same weekend as Rd 23, so can't even give players a run there. Very interested to see how this pans out come finals time actually. Reckon this almost levels it up, and if a team in the bottom part of the 8 has a healthy list, they could steal it.

Edit: take out the travelling part, obviously nobody wants to travel, but say we play a top 4 team here.. That's more what i'm meaning.

 

[Pugz89]

View attachment 298654

And we even did it with two away finals

 

[Zeno The Great]

Any tips for the spring carnival would be appreciated cleveland