Expansion Canberra

[Canberra Pear]

Hmm, one of these grounds with an average crowd of less than 10,000 is the home ground for an AFL team.

View attachment 1422001

If Manuka Oval was to have a capacity increase, would it get larger crowds to GWS games?

It seems like 11,000 is around the regular attendance, despite having a capacity of 16,000. ‘Edit: the Manuka Oval website quotes a seated capacity of 13,550 History – Manuka Oval ‘

How big of a crowd could Canberra regularly pull?

View attachment 1422006

View attachment 1422007

Gold Coast might be good for comparison.

After hosting the Roos for four seasons, crowds jumped 80% for the first season with their own team.

I averaged our past four (pre-Covid) seasons to compare. If we were to have that same increase, we could average crowds of 22,110.

It's not a perfect example, but it shows it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect 20k crowds.

 

[sverik25]

The Raiders have averaged crowds of around 13,000 in recent seasons. Up to about 16,000 in a good year.

The initial aim I reckon would be to beat that and build from there.

 

[Seedsfan]

The Raiders have averaged crowds of around 13,000 in recent seasons. Up to about 16,000 in a good year.

The initial aim I reckon would be to beat that and build from there.

Good luck, the Raiders have been around for 30 years and been a very successful club.

 

[Bjo187]

20k stadium to start with would be good. I reckon a smaller fuller stadium looks better on tv and is a better spectator experience. I bet they are wishing they made gws and gc stadiums 15k ones.

 

[sverik25]

Good luck, the Raiders have been around for 30 years and been a very successful club.

They are established - not so successful in recent years though. However AFL crowds are consistently better than NRL crowds across the country. Even the Lions often beat the Broncos in Brisbane as far as crowds go. I reckon a Canberra AFL team could draw better than the Raiders.

 

[Seedsfan]

They are established - not so successful in recent years though. However AFL crowds are consistently better than NRL crowds across the country. Even the Lions often beat the Broncos in Brisbane as far as crowds go. I reckon a Canberra AFL team could draw better than the Raiders.

Brisbane crowds in general are fair weather across all their teams, Lions, Broncos, Reds and Roar

 

[Coolangatta]

Canberra really does seem like the most logical choice for team 20. If Tasmania were to come into the league, how many years would you wait to bring Canberra in?

 

[Canberra Pear]

Good luck, the Raiders have been around for 30 years and been a very successful club.

I think a Canberra AFL team's crowds would immediately be higher than the Raiders'.

For the five seasons preceding Covid (2015-19), the Raiders averaged crowds of 12,568 at Bruce. GWS averaged 11,818 at Manuka. A third of those GWS games were sold out, so capacity allowing, Manuka crowds would've been over 12k and near the Raiders'.

The Gold Coast's crowds jumped 80% from hosting the Roos to the Suns' first season. You'd anticipate a jump for a new Canberra team, too. Even with only half of that bump, a Canberra AFL team would have a considerable attendance lead over the Raiders.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Canberra really does seem like the most logical choice for team 20. If Tasmania were to come into the league, how many years would you wait to bring Canberra in?

I guess it depends on how quickly Tasmania comes in.

I think Canberra could be viable from 2028/29. Our population will be 500k and our rumoured five-year GWS extension would have just expired.

If the AFL is smart and gives everybody enough notice, it should be enough time for a decent enough Manuka refurb and give GWS enough time to implement a transition plan.

I personally think it should be a two- or three-year gap. It'll help lessen the shock to the competition and give Tasmania more time to settle, but it will ultimately come down to how quickly a broadcaster will want Team 20 in.

 

[Seedsfan]

I think a Canberra AFL team's crowds would immediately be higher than the Raiders'.

For the five seasons preceding Covid (2015-19), the Raiders averaged crowds of 12,568 at Bruce. GWS averaged 11,818 at Manuka. A third of those GWS games were sold out, so capacity allowing, Manuka crowds would've been over 12k and near the Raiders'.

The Gold Coast's crowds jumped 80% from hosting the Roos to the Suns' first season. You'd anticipate a jump for a new Canberra team, too. Even with only half of that bump, a Canberra AFL team would have a considerable attendance lead over the Raiders.

Big difference between people going to two games and supporting a whole season

 

[Bjo187]

I guess it depends on how quickly Tasmania comes in.

I think Canberra could be viable from 2028/29. Our population will be 500k and our rumoured five-year GWS extension would have just expired.

If the AFL is smart and gives everybody enough notice, it should be enough time for a decent enough Manuka refurb and give GWS enough time to implement a transition plan.

I personally think it should be a two- or three-year gap. It'll help lessen the shock to the competition and give Tasmania more time to settle, but it will ultimately come down to how quickly a broadcaster will want Team 20 in.

Agree with this, do you think if Canberra came in they would get friendly local media attention, or will it be like gws and gc with the local media basically running them into the ground before they start with all the invasion and code war bullshit (despite footy already being popular there)? I think this can't be under stated and is one of the main reasons footy isn't more popular in nsw and qld, the constant negative invasion media (an Australian sport invading Australia).

 

[Coolangatta]

Big difference between people going to two games and supporting a whole season

If the Suns can average 10k+ a week, I reckon Canberra will get that easily. They're more into footy than the Gold Coast are.

I guess it depends on how quickly Tasmania comes in.

I think Canberra could be viable from 2028/29. Our population will be 500k and our rumoured five-year GWS extension would have just expired.

If the AFL is smart and gives everybody enough notice, it should be enough time for a decent enough Manuka refurb and give GWS enough time to implement a transition plan.

I personally think it should be a two- or three-year gap. It'll help lessen the shock to the competition and give Tasmania more time to settle, but it will ultimately come down to how quickly a broadcaster will want Team 20 in.

If it happens, it'll probably be the year after Tassie for that reason, but I think a three-year gap would be good. 2025 Tassie, 2028 Canberra. That's if Tassie gets the licence this year. I read somewhere that Tassie would still play at Blundstone Arena until the new stadium is completed, so they won't have to wait for that.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Agree with this, do you think if Canberra came in they would get friendly local media attention, or will it be like gws and gc with the local media basically running them into the ground before they start with all the invasion and code war bullshit (despite footy already being popular there)? I think this can't be under stated and is one of the main reasons footy isn't more popular in nsw and qld, the constant negative invasion media (an Australian sport invading Australia).

I don't think Canberra would receive any media resistance. The media get behind any team that's actually from Canberra. Our WNBL and ice hockey teams even get more coverage than the Giants.

Of the local leagues, I think AFL Canberra gets the most coverage, so definitely wouldn't say there's any anti-AFL/invading mentality. I just think we have to be careful of our entry to complement local teams so not to spook existing fans. We need to make sure games are scheduled so people can watch the Raiders as well.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Big difference between people going to two games and supporting a whole season

It's three games a season. It's actually the perfect sample size for the Gold Coast comparison, as they were getting three games a year as well.

The difference is that the Gold Coast hosted games for four consecutive seasons, whereas Canberra has a history of showing up through thick and thin for multiple games a year - for 19 seasons.

This year Canberra will host four games for the first time. It'll be a good test to see how we can support a team. So far, two games in, our crowds are actually up on our long-term average, despite being down everywhere else.

 

[Dirty Bird]

It's three games a season. It's actually the perfect sample size for the Gold Coast comparison, as they were getting three games a year as well.

The difference is that the Gold Coast hosted games for four consecutive seasons, whereas Canberra has a history of showing up through thick and thin for multiple games a year - for 19 seasons.

This year Canberra will host four games for the first time. It'll be a good test to see how we can support a team. So far, two games in, our crowds are actually up on our long-term average, despite being down everywhere else.

Is it 3?

For some reason I thought it was 4

When I was trying to make my own 2022 fixture (I gave up as the logistics were a nightmare) I was working off 4x Launceston, 4x Hobart, 4x Canberra, 2x Ballarat, 1x Cairns, 1x Alice Springs, 1x Darwin (which became 2x to make up for not honouring the 2021 game)

 

[Canberra Pear]

Is it 3?

For some reason I thought it was 4

When I was trying to make my own 2022 fixture (I gave up as the logistics were a nightmare) I was working off 4x Launceston, 4x Hobart, 4x Canberra, 2x Ballarat, 1x Cairns, 1x Alice Springs, 1x Darwin (which became 2x to make up for not honouring the 2021 game)

It's always been promoted as four, but it's been three regular and one preseason game.

It's four regular games this year, but that's to make up for only two games last year. They still haven't announced the specifics of the deal extension, but I assume it'll go back to three regular games (plus one preseason and one women's) from next year.

 

[Badger17]

I think a Canberra AFL team's crowds would immediately be higher than the Raiders'.

For the five seasons preceding Covid (2015-19), the Raiders averaged crowds of 12,568 at Bruce. GWS averaged 11,818 at Manuka. A third of those GWS games were sold out, so capacity allowing, Manuka crowds would've been over 12k and near the Raiders'.

The Gold Coast's crowds jumped 80% from hosting the Roos to the Suns' first season. You'd anticipate a jump for a new Canberra team, too. Even with only half of that bump, a Canberra AFL team would have a considerable attendance lead over the Raiders.

Okay, but the Raiders are handicapped by being stuck in the worst stadium in the country with the exception of some of the suburban grounds in Sydney, most of which are getting upgraded anyway. Give them a stadium that isn't a hellhole in winter, and preferably in a reasonably good location in the city, and their attendance would jump by 3-5k minimum depending on the opposition.

Add to that fact that they've been a mediocre to abysmal team for basically all of their existence aside from a roughly 10 year period between 87-97 and a handful of individual seasons after that (00, 03, 16, 19, and 20), and that for roughly the last decade or so the local government (under Andrew Barr as both Sports Minister and Chief Minister) and NRL have varied between taking the Raiders for granted to being openly hostile to them, and you get a better picture of why their attendances are where they are at.

Change any or all of those circumstances and the Raiders would see a significant jump in attendance pretty much instantly, place any or all of those circumstances on any Canberran AFL side and they will struggle similarly.

It's also incredibly short sighted, and arrogant frankly, to underestimate their support base in the city based solely on their average attendance, and such arrogance can quickly bite you on the arse if you aren't careful. Admittedly putting it simplistically; RL is more popular with the local population of Canberra/Queanbeyan than Aussie Rules, and the AFL would have to be highly reliant on a lot of expats jumping on the team to match the Raiders popularity from the get go, whether or not the team had a higher average attendance than the Raiders.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Okay, but the Raiders are handicapped by being stuck in the worst stadium in the country with the exception of some of the suburban grounds in Sydney, most of which are getting upgraded anyway. Give them a stadium that isn't a hellhole in winter, and preferably in a reasonably good location in the city, and their attendance would jump by 3-5k minimum depending on the opposition.

Add to that fact that they've been a mediocre to abysmal team for basically all of their existence aside from a roughly 10 year period between 87-97 and a handful of individual seasons after that (00, 03, 16, 19, and 20), and that for roughly the last decade or so the local government (under Andrew Barr as both Sports Minister and Chief Minister) and NRL have varied between taking the Raiders for granted to being openly hostile to them, and you get a better picture of why their attendances are where they are at.

Change any or all of those circumstances and the Raiders would see a significant jump in attendance pretty much instantly, place any or all of those circumstances on any Canberran AFL side and they will struggle similarly.

It's also incredibly short sighted, and arrogant frankly, to underestimate their support base in the city based solely on their average attendance, and such arrogance can quickly bite you on the arse if you aren't careful. Admittedly putting it simplistically; RL is more popular with the local population of Canberra/Queanbeyan than Aussie Rules, and the AFL would have to be highly reliant on a lot of expats jumping on the team to match the Raiders popularity from the get go, whether or not the team had a higher average attendance than the Raiders.

I'd say Manuka has handicapped crowds just as much as Bruce. Yes, Bruce sucks, and an Adelaide Oval type would immediately boost crowds, but Manuka crowds are essentially capped, we tend to sell out a third of our games every year. And it's not like Manuka's particularly transit-friendly.

I picked the most recent five years just to get some recency, but the Raiders have been alright in those five years. 2015-19 crowds actually flattered compared to their longer-term average.

I don't mean to sound arrogant, but I genuinely think an AFL team would surpass the Raiders for crowds. I've used other measurements throughout the thread. Ausplay surveys, "Sports Interested In" surveys, Google search results, and participation - all indicate Canberrans leaning towards AFL. There were also more ACT tipsters registered to tipping.afl than tipping.nrl (though I don't know much about the tipping culture of RL).

I know I biasedly lean towards AFL circles, but my own experience also suggests AF is more popular than in Canberra. My own workplace is probably 65/35 in favour of AFL.

Even Canberrans on LeagueUnlimited think Canberra leans towards AFL. Here's a quote from The Great Dane.

Currently Aussie Rules is probably the most popular sport in Canberra by a small margin, but that margin is growing steadily, and having our own AFL team would give the sport a significant boost not only locally but in most of Southern NSW as well. However that state of affairs would be easily reversible if the NRL actually gave a f**k,

Canberran AFL support isn't just recent expats, it's ingrained from waves of expats over a century and to their children. From the top of my head, I know Saints, North, Crows, Richmond, Port, Sydney, GWS, Carlton, Essendon and Geelong supporters who were all born in Canberra (and I'm not a social person).

But that being said, I do think we need to be careful. I may sound arrogant now while showing why we make most sense for Team 20, but we don't want to upset people in a small market. We need to be seen to complement the Raiders, rather than oppose them.

Canberrans have the most disposable income in Australia and many will be able to monetarily support both. I think we should be scheduling home games in opposite weeks and making sure they don't clash with when away games are aired. I also think we should plan to play on the same weekend sometimes to make an event of it (like playing the Titans and Suns on the Gold Coast on the same weekend to have full weekend getaway).

 

[Badger17]

I am The Great Dane, and you're badly misrepresenting what I said (here on Bigfooty, not on LeagueUnlimited) at points, and putting way too much weight onto things that are broadly meaningless. Let's break it down.

I'd say Manuka has handicapped crowds just as much as Bruce. Yes, Bruce sucks, and an Adelaide Oval type would immediately boost crowds, but Manuka crowds are essentially capped, we tend to sell out a third of our games every year. And it's not like Manuka's particularly transit-friendly.

I picked the most recent five years just to get some recency, but the Raiders have been alright in those five years. 2015-19 crowds actually flattered compared to their longer-term average.

I don't mean to sound arrogant, but I genuinely think an AFL team would surpass the Raiders for crowds.

I'm sure that Manuka handicaps AFL crowds to some degree, but nothing like Bruce does to any event that's played there in winter. Bruce was initially designed as an athletics field to be used mainly in summer, and trust me it shows. Manuka is significantly more comfortable than Bruce, especially if there's any wind about.
I also don't think that the audience at your average GWS game is actually that good of a reflection of the audience that a local AFL team would have, but that's a whole other discussion.

I also know for a fact that 2015-2019 flatters the Raiders attendance numbers. However that's more a reflection of the fact that 2016 and 2019 are two of the only seasons since 1995 where the club has actually been seriously competitive in the competition, than it is any reflection of their actual support in the city. Most team's active support suffers when they go through such extended periods of either sucking or being soul-crushingly mediocre.

But getting to the point, an AFL team may surpass the Raiders average crowds in Canberra from the get go (in fact I think it's more likely than not that an AFL team would have larger crowds on average), however if that happens in any significant way it will largely be because the conditions favour them. In ideal conditions the Raiders could easily be averaging somewhere over 20k. However they're nowhere near achieving those conditions and that's largely been outside of their control.

An AFL side here would more or less be in the same boat, where depending on the standard of facilities, success of the team, support from stake holders such as the AFL, government, and broadcasters, etc, I could see them averaging anywhere between 16-25k depending on the circumstances.

I've used other measurements throughout the thread. Ausplay surveys, "Sports Interested In" surveys, Google search results, and participation - all indicate Canberrans leaning towards AFL. There were also more ACT tipsters registered to tipping.afl than tipping.nrl (though I don't know much about the tipping culture of RL).

Ausplay, other surveys, and Google search results are all totally meaningless without a good sample size and context about the participants and how the results were collected.

The results of the surveys are manipulated by how you ask the questions and the standard by which you define a fan. For example somebody saying that X team/sport is their favourite in a survey doesn't mean that they actually support said team/sport in any meaningful way. Google search results only tally the amount of times AFL was googled by IP addresses from Canberra. Googling the AFL doesn't necessarily make you a fan, and for all we know a relative handful of people could be totally warping the sample because they Google the AFL regularly.

Participation statistics don't give anything close to an accurate reflection of support for a sport either. If they did then soccer would be the most popular football code in the country (and the USA, Canada, NZ, etc) by a significant margin, yet it's not even close to it...

Rugby League's support is also misrepresented by participation statistics because it's one of those sports where the vast majority of it's supporters have never actually laced on a boot. It's similar to MMA, which is easily one of the most popular sport's in both Australia and the world right now, but it's got to be something like less than 5% of it's fans that have ever actually participated because of the inherent risks of participating.

Tipping numbers is a better metric, but it's just a singular data point.

The point is that we don't have anywhere near enough clear data to be able to clearly state whether RL or Aussie Rules is more popular in the ACT. What we do know for sure is that they are easily the two most popular football codes, arguably the two most popular team sports, and that their rates of support in the ACT are really, really close.

If we ignore the other sports for simplicity's sake, then the city would have to be split something like 45-55% RL and Aussie Rules respectively.

I know I biasedly lean towards AFL circles, but my own experience also suggests AF is more popular than in Canberra. My own workplace is probably 65/35 in favour of AFL.

Anecdote, and it doesn't sound like you'd be the sort to talk about RL anyway lol.

I'd be willing to bet that on average most sports fans in Canberra support both the NRL and AFL to some degree. However I'd also bet that the vast majority of those people are unlikely to be willing to regularly attend either a local NRL or AFL team's games no matter the circumstances, but again I digress.

Canberran AFL support isn't just recent expats, it's ingrained from waves of expats over a century and to their children. From the top of my head, I know Saints, North, Crows, Richmond, Port, Sydney, GWS, Carlton, Essendon and Geelong supporters who were all born in Canberra (and I'm not a social person).

This is where the misrepresentation gets bad...

I never suggested that the AFL's support in Canberra is made up of recent expats. What I did say was that RL is more popular with the local population, and I stand by that.

In other words if you took everyone born and raised in the ACT or Queanbeyan, or whom have lived here since a young age, you'd get more passionate RL fans than AFL fans. However, though not insignificant, that group is still a minority of the city's population to this day and if you add in the population of expats Aussie Rules is probably marginally more popular.

The problem with expats though (as the Raiders and Brumbies can tell you) is that they're significantly less likely to support the local team than their favourite team from childhood.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I am The Great Dane, and you're badly misrepresenting what I said (here on Bigfooty, not on LeagueUnlimited) at points, and putting way too much weight onto things that are broadly meaningless. Let's break it down.

Ahh cool. Worlds collide. I'm only a lurker on LU (mostly in the Expansion threads), but I appreciate your posts. You and Colk always make good arguments.

I'm sorry if I've misrepresented you, it hasn't been my intention.

I'm sure that Manuka handicaps AFL crowds to some degree, but nothing like Bruce does to any event that's played there in winter. Bruce was initially designed as an athletics field to be used mainly in summer, and trust me it shows. Manuka is significantly more comfortable than Bruce, especially if there's any wind about.
I also don't think that the audience at your average GWS game is actually that good of a reflection of the audience that a local AFL team would have, but that's a whole other discussion.

I also know for a fact that 2015-2019 flatters the Raiders attendance numbers. However that's more a reflection of the fact that 2016 and 2019 are two of the only seasons since 1995 where the club has actually been seriously competitive in the competition, than it is any reflection of their actual support in the city. Most team's active support suffers when they go through such extended periods of either sucking or being soul-crushingly mediocre.

But getting to the point, an AFL team may surpass the Raiders average crowds in Canberra from the get go (in fact I think it's more likely than not that an AFL team would have larger crowds on average), however if that happens in any significant way it will largely be because the conditions favour them. In ideal conditions the Raiders could easily be averaging somewhere over 20k. However they're nowhere near achieving those conditions and that's largely been outside of their control.

An AFL side here would more or less be in the same boat, where depending on the standard of facilities, success of the team, support from stake holders such as the AFL, government, and broadcasters, etc, I could see them averaging anywhere between 16-25k depending on the circumstances.

I honestly can't speak on Bruce from a personal perspective. I've never been (been meaning to). Manuka is nice, and relatively central, but still a pain for parking and facilities are rubbish with any crowd. Sadly, probably still one of the best facilities in Canberra.

A rooved Civic stadium would be a real gamechanger for the Raiders (and Brumbies). What will be interesting is the capacity. Some reports have a Civic stadium only being able to fit 20k, which would be ironic as the demand would be much higher. Whereas if they put the stadium at Epic, capacity will be higher, but demand will be lower.

We don't have our own real team, but we did have some absolutely shoddy years of GWS. A bit of a hard comparison though as I feel Canberrans are more showing up for AFL rather than the Giants.

Ausplay, other surveys, and Google search results are all totally meaningless without a good sample size and context about the participants and how the results were collected.

The results of the surveys are manipulated by how you ask the questions and the standard by which you define a fan. For example somebody saying that X team/sport is their favourite in a survey doesn't mean that they actually support said team/sport in any meaningful way. Google search results only tally the amount of times AFL was googled by IP addresses from Canberra. Googling the AFL doesn't necessarily make you a fan, and for all we know a relative handful of people could be totally warping the sample because they Google the AFL regularly.

Participation statistics don't give anything close to an accurate reflection of support for a sport either. If they did then soccer would be the most popular football code in the country (and the USA, Canada, NZ, etc) by a significant margin, yet it's not even close to it...

Rugby League's support is also misrepresented by participation statistics because it's one of those sports where the vast majority of it's supporters have never actually laced on a boot. It's similar to MMA, which is easily one of the most popular sport's in both Australia and the world right now, but it's got to be something like less than 5% of it's fans that have ever actually participated because of the inherent risks of participating.

Tipping numbers is a better metric, but it's just a singular data point.

The point is that we don't have anywhere near enough clear data to be able to clearly state whether RL or Aussie Rules is more popular in the ACT. What we do know for sure is that they are easily the two most popular football codes, arguably the two most popular team sports, and that their rates of support in the ACT are really, really close.

If we ignore the other sports for simplicity's sake, then the city would have to be split something like 45-55% RL and Aussie Rules respectively.

I agree that a lot of these surveys and stats don't necessarily confirm support. That's why I've tried to accumulate as many different examples as I can. Individually they don't tell much, but multiple points of data start to tell a story. I can only use the data that's available.

I personally think it's a little higher, but a 45-55 split could be right. Without real stats, it's hard to be sure. To be honest, I don't think it matters too much, Canberrans are perfectly capable of supporting multiple codes. You're a perfect example. I only dig into the comparisons against RL because the tired old argument against a Canberra team is that it's a "rugby town". People see the Raiders and Brumbies and couldn't possibly think we could support a third code.

Anecdote, and it doesn't sound like you'd be the sort to talk about RL anyway lol.

I'd be willing to bet that on average most sports fans in Canberra support both the NRL and AFL to some degree. However I'd also bet that the vast majority of those people are unlikely to be willing to regularly attend either a local NRL or AFL team's games no matter the circumstances, but again I digress.

I wish I had more than these surveys and anecdotes, but with limited actual data, I'm trying to fill some gaps.

I get into RL convos with a few work colleagues. I don't get into the specifics with players, but I still chat about what I know and I've watched a few games with mates at a pub (a Manly supporter). Went with him to watch the Raiders grand final at the pub, too. Had no idea what was going on when the pub erupted over the six again rule.

There's not really any way to know if Canberran AFL supporters will get behind a new team. I obviously won't be anywhere to the level that Tasmanians will. But we have four games for the first time this year, so that'll be somewhat of a test if we can maintain crowds.

This is where the misrepresentation gets bad...

I never suggested that the AFL's support in Canberra is made up of recent expats. What I did say was that RL is more popular with the local population, and I stand by that.

In other words if you took everyone born and raised in the ACT or Queanbeyan, or whom have lived here since a young age, you'd get more passionate RL fans than AFL fans. However, though not insignificant, that group is still a minority of the city's population to this day and if you add in the population of expats Aussie Rules is probably marginally more popular.

The problem with expats though (as the Raiders and Brumbies can tell you) is that they're significantly less likely to support the local team than their favourite team from childhood.

I may have been overgeneralising with my expats comment, but I still maintain that AFL would have a similar level strength with the "local" population. As I mentioned, just in my social circle, I know Canberra-born people supporting 10 different AFL clubs. I probably know half as many Canberra-born rugby league fans (all Raiders). I actually know more interstate-born Canberran RL fans.

I do agree that there are probably more AFL expats though, and it would be harder to convert them if they don't have the Canberra identity. My interstate-born RL friends are a good example, because every single one of them still supports their home teams.

 

[fargothegreat]

From 2010 to 2019 rates of AFL 'fanaticism' in the ACT rose by 12% up to 28%. All traditional heartland AFL states (including Tassie) dropped 11-19% in this time period, but were still all ahead of the ACT.

Tasmania's level of fanaticism still sat 2% higher than the ACT at 30% and is currently at a low point (hence the push for a Tasmanian team to reignite interest in the sport in the tradional heartland state).

With a population almost 100,000 less than Tasmania, a Canberra team probably requires interest in the sport and population to continue to grow further along with a significant push from the ACT government (including financial support) in order to justify inclusion as the 20th team.

However, if the AFL were to form the view that a 20th team is required as soon as possible (unlikely, as they've said they're totally comfortable with 19 teams due to the flexibility that the bye provides), then Canberra is the most obvious choice and evidently a far more viable option than the NT.

 

[Bjo187]

I am The Great Dane, and you're badly misrepresenting what I said (here on Bigfooty, not on LeagueUnlimited) at points, and putting way too much weight onto things that are broadly meaningless. Let's break it down.

I'm sure that Manuka handicaps AFL crowds to some degree, but nothing like Bruce does to any event that's played there in winter. Bruce was initially designed as an athletics field to be used mainly in summer, and trust me it shows. Manuka is significantly more comfortable than Bruce, especially if there's any wind about.
I also don't think that the audience at your average GWS game is actually that good of a reflection of the audience that a local AFL team would have, but that's a whole other discussion.

I also know for a fact that 2015-2019 flatters the Raiders attendance numbers. However that's more a reflection of the fact that 2016 and 2019 are two of the only seasons since 1995 where the club has actually been seriously competitive in the competition, than it is any reflection of their actual support in the city. Most team's active support suffers when they go through such extended periods of either sucking or being soul-crushingly mediocre.

But getting to the point, an AFL team may surpass the Raiders average crowds in Canberra from the get go (in fact I think it's more likely than not that an AFL team would have larger crowds on average), however if that happens in any significant way it will largely be because the conditions favour them. In ideal conditions the Raiders could easily be averaging somewhere over 20k. However they're nowhere near achieving those conditions and that's largely been outside of their control.

An AFL side here would more or less be in the same boat, where depending on the standard of facilities, success of the team, support from stake holders such as the AFL, government, and broadcasters, etc, I could see them averaging anywhere between 16-25k depending on the circumstances.

Ausplay, other surveys, and Google search results are all totally meaningless without a good sample size and context about the participants and how the results were collected.

The results of the surveys are manipulated by how you ask the questions and the standard by which you define a fan. For example somebody saying that X team/sport is their favourite in a survey doesn't mean that they actually support said team/sport in any meaningful way. Google search results only tally the amount of times AFL was googled by IP addresses from Canberra. Googling the AFL doesn't necessarily make you a fan, and for all we know a relative handful of people could be totally warping the sample because they Google the AFL regularly.

Participation statistics don't give anything close to an accurate reflection of support for a sport either. If they did then soccer would be the most popular football code in the country (and the USA, Canada, NZ, etc) by a significant margin, yet it's not even close to it...

Rugby League's support is also misrepresented by participation statistics because it's one of those sports where the vast majority of it's supporters have never actually laced on a boot. It's similar to MMA, which is easily one of the most popular sport's in both Australia and the world right now, but it's got to be something like less than 5% of it's fans that have ever actually participated because of the inherent risks of participating.

Tipping numbers is a better metric, but it's just a singular data point.

The point is that we don't have anywhere near enough clear data to be able to clearly state whether RL or Aussie Rules is more popular in the ACT. What we do know for sure is that they are easily the two most popular football codes, arguably the two most popular team sports, and that their rates of support in the ACT are really, really close.

If we ignore the other sports for simplicity's sake, then the city would have to be split something like 45-55% RL and Aussie Rules respectively.

Anecdote, and it doesn't sound like you'd be the sort to talk about RL anyway lol.

I'd be willing to bet that on average most sports fans in Canberra support both the NRL and AFL to some degree. However I'd also bet that the vast majority of those people are unlikely to be willing to regularly attend either a local NRL or AFL team's games no matter the circumstances, but again I digress.


This is where the misrepresentation gets bad...

I never suggested that the AFL's support in Canberra is made up of recent expats. What I did say was that RL is more popular with the local population, and I stand by that.

In other words if you took everyone born and raised in the ACT or Queanbeyan, or whom have lived here since a young age, you'd get more passionate RL fans than AFL fans. However, though not insignificant, that group is still a minority of the city's population to this day and if you add in the population of expats Aussie Rules is probably marginally more popular.

The problem with expats though (as the Raiders and Brumbies can tell you) is that they're significantly less likely to support the local team than their favourite team from childhood.

All sound like valid points. A question for you though badger, are you actually a footy fan or only a rugby league fan?

 

[fargothegreat]

I think a truly national AFL should be our goal, but achieving that isn't easy. Whilst Tasmania is clearly ready now, and Canberra is probably only a decade or two away, the NT probably won't have the population to sustain a team on their own for another 50 years. The other issue is the fact that less teams is clearly better for the standard of the comp and fan engagement (less time between flags with less teams).

A couple of ideas I've had to get both territories represented in the comp have been either:

• Canberra as team 20 with NT entering into a partnership with North Melbourne as 'North Kangaroos' (still based at Arden St)
• a shared ACT/NT 20th club (not sure on the name)

 

[Walshawk]

If the Suns can average 10k+ a week, I reckon Canberra will get that easily. They're more into footy than the Gold Coast are.

If it happens, it'll probably be the year after Tassie for that reason, but I think a three-year gap would be good. 2025 Tassie, 2028 Canberra. That's if Tassie gets the licence this year. I read somewhere that Tassie would still play at Blundstone Arena until the new stadium is completed, so they won't have to wait for that.

There is no push for a club from anyone in Canberra, and not much prospect of increasing Manuka to the AFL's suggested 27,500. They would need to find a new site should they get a club. That won;t be easy - they can't even get a decent rectangular stadium despite more content. If GWS is still pulling 6K to Showgrounds games by the time Tassie enter the comp, I reckon that there will be a push to relocate the Giants to Canberra.

 

[Bjo187]

There is no push for a club from anyone in Canberra, and not much prospect of increasing Manuka to the AFL's suggested 27,500. They would need to find a new site should they get a club. That won;t be easy - they can't even get a decent rectangular stadium despite more content. If GWS is still pulling 6K to Showgrounds games by the time Tassie enter the comp, I reckon that there will be a push to relocate the Giants to Canberra.

I reckon they'll see how the giants are going in 2030, if struggling then it might be on the cards to move them to Canberra. That's 20 years in. The problem with the giants and suns though is that the AFL have already put so much money and effort in its very hard to just wipe your hands of that at any stage, all that work for nothing they will see it as.