Expansion Canberra

[Walshawk]

Interesting.

Darwin has a population of 140,000 and code allegiance is somewhat split between footy and RL.

Meanwhile Hobart has a population of 230,000, and pretty good access to a further 300,000 potential fans elsewhere in teh state. Despite this, I reckon if Tassie can manage average crowds of 15,000, they'll be doing well.

Darwin on the other hand is totally isolated. It has no hinterland population to fall back on.

If people are happy with long-term average crowds of 7-8,000, Darwin's a good option. Also prepare for a heap of scrappy dew-impacted night games.

There are benefits to Darwin in that it supports a more expansive national footprint, and would smooth the way to federal support given the direct benefits to aboriginal communities. Inclusion of Cairns in some way is interesting too. It has a relatively established footy culture (relative to the rest of QLD) and would allow the AFL to stake a meaningful claim outside of the state's SE corner.

To be honest, I think there's a pretty strong case for either Canberra or a northern team.

What do you think that Tassie will average only the same as Hawks and even North did pre-Covid?

 

[Consolaçao]

What do you think that Tassie will average only the same as Hawks and even North did pre-Covid?

Just took a look at historic York Park crowds... OK, maybe I was being a bit pessimistic.

 

[MelbourneGWS]

With no Civic rectangular stadium expected in the budget (famous last words of course!), an opinion piece in a popular Canberra community forum on whether AFL considerations needed to be factored in for the Bruce stadium upgrade.

Will there be a campaign to include AFL into the planning for the proposed new Canberra sports stadium? | Region Canberra

The twists, turns and backflips on the proposed new facility to replace Canberra Stadium ensure that nothing out of the…

the-riotact.com

 

[3rd Grade Maggy]

With no Civic rectangular stadium expected in the budget (famous last words of course!), an opinion piece in a popular Canberra community forum on whether AFL considerations needed to be factored in for the Bruce stadium upgrade.

Will there be a campaign to include AFL into the planning for the proposed new Canberra sports stadium? | Region Canberra

The twists, turns and backflips on the proposed new facility to replace Canberra Stadium ensure that nothing out of the…

the-riotact.com

Manuka has everything people whining about a City Stadium want with regards match day experience. Why on earth would you look to change it, other than building stands on the eastern side if there becomes the demand for it.

 

[kranger]

Manuka has everything people whining about a City Stadium want with regards match day experience. Why on earth would you look to change it, other than building stands on the eastern side if there becomes the demand for it.

The only thing might be Manuka Oval not being on the light rail network to provide better PT access.

 

[Canberra Pear]

The only thing might be Manuka Oval not being on the light rail network to provide better PT access.

Shouldn't really factor in. An oval was never really on the cards on the city site. Too small.

A redeveloped Bruce Stadium is now the frontrunner for rectangular sports and it'll probably get light rail ~2040.

Manuka should be on the light rail in the late 2020s (perfect for Team 20).

 

[3rd Grade Maggy]

Manuka and Bruce will be on the same schedule. East/West (LR Stage 3) is Belco to the Airport (with route to be determined)

 

[madmug]

Shouldn't really factor in. An oval was never really on the cards on the city site. Too small.

A redeveloped Bruce Stadium is now the frontrunner for rectangular sports and it'll probably get light rail ~2040.

Manuka should be on the light rail in the late 2020s (perfect for Team 20).

What about a roof?

 

[Canberra Pear]

Manuka and Bruce will be on the same schedule. East/West (LR Stage 3) is Belco to the Airport (with route to be determined)

I know the route is still TBD, but pretty much all the Stage 3 maps I've seen run on the north side of the lake through Russell. Unless you know something about them preferring Kingston instead?

Whereas Stage 2b shows a stop 1km from Manuka on the State Circle.

So, from what I've read anyway, Manuka should end up on the light rail before Bruce.

 

[Canberra Pear]

What about a roof?

I know you're joking, but Canberra is the driest capital city from March-September (Darwin would be drier if you only count from April, but has an incredibly wet March). Canberra is the only capital to get under 300mm in those seven months. I know Hobart is drier over the whole year, but Canberra has a wetter offseason.

Personally, I think it's ridiculous that Hobart needs a roof. It has pretty much the same rainfall as Melbourne in those seven months. Less than Adelaide. Way less than Perth. And half of what Sydney has. A roof seems like absolute overkill to me in both Hobart and Canberra.

I would absolutely love some planning done towards heating at Manuka though.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

I would absolutely love some planning done towards heating at Manuka though.

Who doesn’t love a night game at Manuka Oval in the middle of winter with no heating though

 

[almuz]

Who doesn’t love a night game at Manuka Oval in the middle of winter with no heating though

Most Brumbies games are at night at Bruce - the union season doesn't even go that deep into winter and it's grim out there!

I know it doesn't do as well re TV viewership but most CBR20 AFL games would have to be in the day for that reason surely. Not that 8-12 degree days are the best, but it's usually clear skies and way more tolerable.

That and/or making Manuka as protected from the elements as possible with a new grandstand or two.

 

[sverik25]

Most Brumbies games are at night at Bruce - the union season doesn't even go that deep into winter and it's grim out there!

I know it doesn't do as well re TV viewership but most CBR20 AFL games would have to be in the day for that reason surely. Not that 8-12 degree days are the best, but it's usually clear skies and way more tolerable.

That and/or making Manuka as protected from the elements as possible with a new grandstand or two.

A clear Canberra day in the winter (quite common) is a beautiful thing. Just not once the sun goes down.

 

[Bjo187]

Yeah Tassie isn't about the rain it's about the cold. I much prefer night games at marvel than the mcg in winter, I think that's the AFL's philosophy with demanding a roof.

 

[Fire]

There's a demographic headwind hitting the AFL, where newer generations are getting increasingly easy access to increasingly personalized content. Going to the footy needs to be as streamlined and comfortable as possible, otherwise increasing numbers of people just won't do it, even if they have an interest to do so.

Once AI develops and content becomes increasingly cheap to produce, how many generation Alphas are going to spend an hour in traffic to get to Blundstone, sitting on uncomfortable chairs in the cold and or rain?

I can see the AFLs philosophy on this one.

 

[MelbourneGWS]

Behind a paywall, but essentially our Chief Minister will not build a new stadium in the city but rather upgrade at Bruce. Given the bitterness involved, there maybe issues with obtaining widespread support from other codes to any significant $ for a Manuka AFL upgrade.

Stadium war of words: Barr hits back at NRL after blistering attack

The Chief Minister says the NRL should put money where its mouth is.

www.canberratimes.com.au

 

[Thailander]

North Melbourne would absolutely dominate the game if they relocated to the ACT and became the Canberra Kangaroos. They would become the next Sydney Swans.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

Yeah Tassie isn't about the rain it's about the cold. I much prefer night games at marvel than the mcg in winter, I think that's the AFL's philosophy with demanding a roof.

No, it was Eddie being a campaigner and the AFL running with it thinking no government would be that ****ing stupid.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

North Melbourne would absolutely dominate the game if they relocated to the ACT and became the Canberra Kangaroos. They would become the next Sydney Swans.

Have heard this sentiment a bit. Do people forget that we used to play in Canberra and how things ended there? They never accepted us in the way they have done now with GWS. Our members and supporters won’t accept a relocation either, as was the case when the AFL tried to ship us up to the coast.

 

[Coolangatta]

Have heard this sentiment a bit. Do people forget that we used to play in Canberra and how things ended there? They never accepted us in the way they have done now with GWS. Our members and supporters won’t accept a relocation either, as was the case when the AFL tried to ship us up to the coast.

Canberra would definitely embrace their own side more than the Roos or even the Giants.

I think the ship has sailed for relocations.

If you were trying to keep the comp to 20 teams, maybe you'd look at relocating a club to Canberra and then adding a Northern side, but you'd still have the problem of that 10th game not adding real value to the broadcast deal because you don't have a good time zone for Friday night double headers.

This is yet another reason why WA3 is the biggest threat to Canberra being team 20.

I like the expansion setup we discussed but I do fear Canberra missing out completely on ever getting their own team if they aren't the 20th.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

Canberra would definitely embrace their own side more than the Roos or even the Giants.

I think the ship has sailed for relocations.

If you were trying to keep the comp to 20 teams, maybe you'd look at relocating a club to Canberra and then adding a Northern side, but you'd still have the problem of that 10th game not adding real value to the broadcast deal because you don't have a good time zone for Friday night double headers.

This is yet another reason why WA3 is the biggest threat to Canberra being team 20.

I like the expansion setup we discussed but I do fear Canberra missing out completely on ever getting their own team if they aren't the 20th.

I agree re relocations. Every Victorian club has 50k+ members and averaging 25k+ for home game attendances in Melbourne. What’s the point in relocating any of these clubs to regions with small populations &/or a multi-code football culture? Doing this could result in said club actually contracting instead of growing.

St Kilda has reverted to 11 home games in Melbourne, the Dogs have a decent arrangement in regional Vic with a few games in Ballarat. As a North member, I’m only interested in the club pursuing one of these options after Hobart - all chips in with Melbourne, or a secondary market closer to home.

There’s no point in forcing a club to relocate against the will of its supporters as well as the community they’re being sent to. New licenses will be the way to go, as a consequence of this there’ll be a sizeable gap between the inclusion of #20 and #21.

 

[Coolangatta]

I agree re relocations. Every Victorian club has 50k+ members and averaging 25k+ for home game attendances in Melbourne. What’s the point in relocating any of these clubs to regions with small populations &/or a multi-code football culture? Doing this could result in said club actually contracting instead of growing.

St Kilda has reverted to 11 home games in Melbourne, the Dogs have a decent arrangement in regional Vic with a few games in Ballarat. As a North member, I’m only interested in the club pursuing one of these options after Hobart - all chips in with Melbourne, or a secondary market closer to home.

There’s no point in forcing a club to relocate against the will of its supporters as well as the community they’re being sent to. New licenses will be the way to go, as a consequence of this there’ll be a sizeable gap between the inclusion of #20 and #21.

Yes. Gold Coast came in 2011, 14 years after Port’s 1997 entry.

GWS 2012, Tassie likely 2028, sooner than what the AFL wanted.

Team 20 I think will be 2032 or 33.

Can’t see team 21 entering before 2050, that’s 17-18 years after team 20.

The AFL won’t be under pressure to go to 21 teams the way they were 19 though as there won’t be another Tasmania populist “for the good of the game” to add.

The heat might come for NT/Northern Australia as team 21 but if Canberra is not the 20th team I don’t think there’s going to be an outcry for them for the 21st licence as there has been for Tassie as the 19th.

I get the feeling the AFL would prefer 3rd teams in NSW and QLD if there’s going to be team 21 and 22. We shall see.

 

[Bjo187]

We already have too many clubs, 22 would be ridiculous. Do you really want a whole bunch of clubs only winning a flag once every 100 years? 16 was the perfect number, the clubs just weren't distributed in the right locations.

 

[Coolangatta]

We already have too many clubs, 22 would be ridiculous. Do you really want a whole bunch of clubs only winning a flag once every 100 years? 16 was the perfect number, the clubs just weren't distributed in the right locations.

No, but I don't want a lack of distribution just because they ****ed up by having ten teams in Victoria.

16 was the perfect number, as you say. It should've been: either 5 or 7 VIC, 2 WA, 2 SA, 1-2 NSW, 1-2 QLD, 1 TAS, 1 ACT, 1 NT-FNQ.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

We already have too many clubs, 22 would be ridiculous. Do you really want a whole bunch of clubs only winning a flag once every 100 years? 16 was the perfect number, the clubs just weren't distributed in the right locations.

Unfortunately, with only 16 clubs my home state of Tassie would probably never be getting a look in, which would not be ideal for a so-called national competition. I share your concerns that expanding the league makes it harder to for clubs to experience success. This is one of the major reasons why I’m an advocate for conferences, even as soon as we get to 20 clubs.

If only 1/20 clubs can experience the ultimate success each season then it would be good to give clubs something else to contend for (like there is in most other sporting leagues around the world). Our clubs can’t qualify for continental leagues, fight relegation battles etc so we want to avoid situations where a large number of clubs have nothing to contend for year-on-year with the prospect of bulk dead rubber games as we get into the 2nd half of each season. Conferences could help alleviate some of these issues.

I appreciate that many hate the thought of the idea, but some models are certainly better than others and I think if done right, it could actually enhance the competition. The AFL’s current system has spawned from what worked with a 12 club state league so it’s a bit ridiculous for us to keep adding clubs and not make any adjustments.

Coolangatta and I spoke about this the other day. There’s an argument for the league to shut up shop after 20 clubs, but certainly by 22 because there aren’t too many options left after Canberra, WA3 and NQ-NT.