Welcome to East Germany Carlton and Collingwood - who finishes higher in 2023? Collingwood Ofcourse
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Yeah, would you have said that before this year?
Geelong were smashed from pillar to post over the last few years for their list management strategy (not by me, by the way, if you refer to my posting history in relation to them).
All of a sudden they win a flag and are favourites for next year's premiership, and we see a very different tune being sung...
- Mar 25, 2019
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You've stated the Blues are not set up for short/mid term future success... Is 3-4 years not an accurate time period? Or should I be predicting our team for 2035? Immediate future is the next 1-2 seasons... Short/mid term can only mean 3-4 years from now... No?
Pies in that same period still have 0 quality young KPP coming through which are renowned for taking 4-5 years to develop and begin impacting at a high level and nearly all of their veterans will be gone or phased out with extremely limited replacements waiting in the wings. Next year if not this year just past is likely the only chance you'll have of 'contending' for the next 5-6 years looking at the demographics of your list.
- Mar 25, 2019
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Geelongs not the same as Collingwood. They've been the best ran organisation for the better part of 2 decades and consistently show their unmatched ability to bring in quality mature age talent for less than market value. Is paying Dan Mcstay 650k a year or Brayden Fiorini on 500k a year something you'd imagine Geelong doing? I certainly wouldn't.
They've also won 4 premierships in that space of time.
- Sep 14, 2005
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At least put in a proper effort with the Collingwood team man - you leave out a handful of youngsters then claim we don't have any. Nathan Murphy is in our best 22 right now, and is only 22 - you don't even have him in there. Then you've got youngsters on the cusp of our current 22 in Carmichael, McInnes, Bianco, Macrae and Ruscoe who you don't include - they are only out of our side because we have that quality senior group there.
FB: Quaynor Kelly Murphy
HB: Maynard Moore Noble
C: J Daicos Lipinski McCreery
HF: Hill McStay McInnes
FF: Ginnivan Johnson Cameron
F: Begg Degoey N Daicos
I/C: Bianco Kreuger Macrae Ruscoe Carmichael Dean
You mention we've got no young KPPs, yet you neglect to actually name them. Kreuger played a handful of games this year, and is only 23. Kelly is still a pup, Murphy currently holds down a KP spot, Begg is a 19 year old ruckman who has already been exposed to senior action, and didn't look out of his depth.
I've taken Crisp out all together, as he is 29, and brought in Hill - you didn't mention him either.
Like the Carlton team, some from this 22 won't be on a Collingwood list in 24-36 months time, but we make do with what you currently have on each of our side's lists to form a 22 for 3-4 years time.
- Sep 14, 2005
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Jack Bowes says hello.
- Mar 25, 2019
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Bianco, Carmichael Macrae and Hill are no closer to being quality AFL players than Paddy Dow who's almost universally looked at as a bust and no good. In fact Paddy Dow has probably shown more as an AFL player than any of them and is still regarded as no good.
Murphy fair enough he's a great depth player and will likely replace Howe when he finishes up. My mistake for leaving him out in place of Frampton.
Ruscoe, McInnes, Kelly, Dean, Kreuger... Seriously I may as well name Alex Mirkov for us as a future player for us. None have shown anything to consider them as long-term AFL players.
As far as quality young KPP go and quality young Mids... there really isn't much there. A lot of good young flank options, but the bulk of your core group of is still made up of older statesmen who will be gone within the next few years.
Your most promising youngster outside your 22 is most certainly Henry and he's off down the highway so we can count him out too.
Jack Bowes who was a top 10 pick and has played some terrific football prior to this year who also comes attached with PICK 7 in this draft. Universally seen as a phenomenal deal and thus had a war between clubs over his signature.
Yeah... They aren't even close to the same.
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- May 8, 2006
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I'm tipping both Carlton and Collingwood to finish top 4, although if I was tipping one to drop lower it would be Collingwood.
I feel like Collingwood's 2022 season was a good as it possibly could have been and where they won so many close games and while some of it was belief and skill, some of it was reliant on other team plan just ******* up (eg. Carlton and Essendon) and Collingwood actually had a lower % than Carlton.
Carlton and Collingwood were almost polar opposites this year where I actually think Carlton's list (particularly their KPP) are better but Collingwood just had more dare and belief which culminated in that amazing R23 - where Carlton actually were running to Pies ragged and were scoring against them with ease - but they just could not capitalise when it counted which was purely mental.
Also you look at the Pies back end of the season and it was just remarkable the sequences of close wins:
R13 - GWS by 11
R14 - GC by 5
R15 - NM by 7
R16 - Adel by 5
R17 - Ess by 4
P18 - PA by 6
All of these six games were against cellar dwellars and the Pies just squeaked in every time. Any of these losses (easily could have happened - would have been very poor).
Then they beat Melb by 7, Lost to Sydney, then beat Carlton by a point after trailing by 4 goals in the last.
Then lost two finals by under a goal.
Hard to know what to make of Collingwood of 2022 other than they were probably the most exciting team outside the eventual premiers Geelong. But statistically, they were not much chop at all.
Conversely, Carlton's last four rounds were just disastrous they clearly choked despite definitely being good enough to play finals.
TL
R Collingwood massively overachieved this year and Carlton massively under-achieved. Next year would expect more of a regression to the mean which Carlton probably overtaking the Pies.
I feel like Collingwood's 2022 season was a good as it possibly could have been and where they won so many close games and while some of it was belief and skill, some of it was reliant on other team plan just ******* up (eg. Carlton and Essendon) and Collingwood actually had a lower % than Carlton.
Carlton and Collingwood were almost polar opposites this year where I actually think Carlton's list (particularly their KPP) are better but Collingwood just had more dare and belief which culminated in that amazing R23 - where Carlton actually were running to Pies ragged and were scoring against them with ease - but they just could not capitalise when it counted which was purely mental.
Also you look at the Pies back end of the season and it was just remarkable the sequences of close wins:
R13 - GWS by 11
R14 - GC by 5
R15 - NM by 7
R16 - Adel by 5
R17 - Ess by 4
P18 - PA by 6
All of these six games were against cellar dwellars and the Pies just squeaked in every time. Any of these losses (easily could have happened - would have been very poor).
Then they beat Melb by 7, Lost to Sydney, then beat Carlton by a point after trailing by 4 goals in the last.
Then lost two finals by under a goal.
Hard to know what to make of Collingwood of 2022 other than they were probably the most exciting team outside the eventual premiers Geelong. But statistically, they were not much chop at all.
Conversely, Carlton's last four rounds were just disastrous they clearly choked despite definitely being good enough to play finals.
TL
R Collingwood massively overachieved this year and Carlton massively under-achieved. Next year would expect more of a regression to the mean which Carlton probably overtaking the Pies.
All this discussion is extremely reassuring in that there are bound to be plenty of avenues for me to clean up again in 2023 on my standard bets:
1. Carlton to miss the top 8
2. Collingwood to finish above Carlton.
Bloody hell, I might as well print the $$$ bills myself..
1. Carlton to miss the top 8
2. Collingwood to finish above Carlton.
Bloody hell, I might as well print the $$$ bills myself..
How much you putting on? Might join you going the other way.
- Sep 25, 2013
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Put your account on it Fudgey.
Gotta love Carlton supporters crying foul year on year. Their incompetence is never the club's or player's fault, it's always somebody else's!
You must be putting on some big stakes to be profiting comfortably on a $1.01 bet
Falcon3518
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Great minds do think a like. To be on the same wave length as you is an absolute privilege.Same here, I’ll never have to work again
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Falcon3518
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I don’t think I’ve ever bagged Carlton on Bigfooty. Not surprising what on earth could I bag them about? Total opposite to the pies.
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Not much really. We have the most sophisticated and educated supporter base who simply care about the footy. We don't bag the umpires, we don't try and act like we are better then we are, we simply don't give out any excuses. We acknowledge our short comings as a team and always provide a balanced perspective on the league overall. However, in doing this we sometimes may mention the fact that we have won 16 premierships and Collingwood have lost a shitload of grand finals. This is simply the facts and history of the league, and as proud historians we feel obliged to share on our advanced knowledge to others.
I'd also like to add that I've never said a bad word about Richmond as well. And you would be hard pressed to find a single Carlton supporter that has.
- Sep 14, 2005
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I won't lie - I haven't seen enough of Dow to pass judgement. To be fair to Bianco, Carmichael and Macrae, they are fighting with the likes of Sidebottom, Daicos and Crisp for positions in the midfield and haven't had a proper crack at senior level to be written off. I think the most amongst them is Bianco with 22 games, and he showed glimpses this year.
Even Dow - pretty harsh to be written off after just 63 AFL games. He is older than the guys at Collingwood, so they do have at least another 12-24 months before they can be deemed as busts.
Re Frampton - he is purely coming as depth/emergency in case of injuries. If he is holding down a spot in our back 6, I would be incredibly surprised, or he is incredibly better than I thought he was.
Thats just our list profile though - so the exercise you've gone with isn't exactly fair. We don't have as many youngsters as you guys do. Neither does Geelong - doesn't mean you're automatically better than Geelong in '24-'25.
A more accurate one is the 2023 sides we had going earlier - that is reflecting everything we know WILL be on the list. Collingwood's is ALOT more balanced than Carlton's, which drops off very quickly after the top 5 or so players.
Same could've been said about Richmond a few years ago about their KPF stocks. Fast forward to 2022, they have one of the best contested marking forwards in the game and one of the more exciting potentialed younger KPFs in Cumberland. In an era of FA, it isn't hard to address this fairly quickly.
In regards to midfielders, well that isn't exactly fair. We've probably got the most exciting young prospect in the competition in Nick Daicos. His brother is 23 and was in an AA squad, and Lipinski is a quality midfielder, similar vein to Crisp a few years ago.
Re the 'good young flanker options' comment - Thats where good young players start their AFL careers before transitioning to their rightful positions. Daicos is a prime example of that.
War between clubs was for pick 7, not for Jack Bowes. Going on exposed form, Fiorini is around the same level as Bowes. Pretty tough on one or the other to be saying definitively they aren't even close. You're just being a bit biased against the Pies with that comment because you don't want to rate the one going to the Pies.
JustaBattler
Everyone Looks Better In Blue
- May 31, 2012
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Of course you gotta love Carlton supporters - everyone looks better in Blue.
Scythe94
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I've seen enough to comfortably say that McCrae is a far superior coach to Voss. It's just a matter of how far that'll take Collingwood, Carlton definitely has the better high-end players, but their bottom six and depth is pretty awful, as shown when they had some injuries this year.
I'd personally have Collingwood in the 5-8 range (not a dig, I just think they'll struggle to replicate this year's results), and Carlton 6-10.
I'd personally have Collingwood in the 5-8 range (not a dig, I just think they'll struggle to replicate this year's results), and Carlton 6-10.
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