Billy Beane
Draftee
- Apr 24, 2017
- 6
- 12
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
Hey guys, I'm a huge basketball fan and I get right into the stats in the NFL and NBA. Their stats are a lot more advanced than the AFL. I've been trying to look at AFL stats a bit differently, and have written a couple of things. It's quite a read, but if you love stats hopefully you enjoy it. Any feedback would be great.
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Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley copped plenty of criticism for his decision to send human glove Levi Greenwood to Sam Docherty over Marc Murphy in the weekend’s game against archrivals Carlton. Murphy continued his outstanding season with arguably a best afield performance, and the Blues secured a 79-56 win. The loss has seen the Magpies slide to 15th and the pressure further mounts on Buckley, but there’s plenty of merit in the decision to tag Docherty over Murphy when you look at the numbers.
Metres gained is an in-vogue statistic that, used out of context, doesn’t tell much about a player or a team’s performance. Sydney is currently 16th for total metres gained, but how much is due to their poor performance and how much is due to the fact that they play on the smallest ground in the country every second week? The SCG is 36 metres shorter than Domain Stadium, so in theory 50 lengths of the field by the same team at the different grounds would be mean a team gains 1,800 metres gained more without any significant difference in territory or field position. On a player-by-player basis, a significant portion of the highest ranked players by metres gained are defenders. This is to be expected as their role is to rebound, so coming deeper from the field will always mean they’re generating more metres gained than a forward. There are outliers though, and these players are the elite of the competition; Dustin Martin, Zach Merrett, Gary Ablett and Lance Franklin are all in the top 20. For every Ablett and Franklin there is a Jayden Hunt, who is 11th in the league for metres gained and averages nearly 500 metres per game while not being considered one of the game’s premier players. Comparatively, Patrick Cripps averages 288 metres gained per game. A player’s average metres gained is far more reflective of the style of player than their effectiveness or impact on the game. Hunt is a run-and-carry wingman/back flanker whereas Cripps is usually found at the coalface and is a clearance king. If you asked 100 Demons supporters who they’d take out of Hunt and Cripps, 99 would take Cripps and wonder what the other one was thinking.
Metres Gained can be a valuable metric when used in context. Out of all the key stats in games (disposals, disposal efficiency, contested possessions and Inside 50s), teams that win the Metres Gained count win the highest percentage of games; 89% of teams that won the Metres Gained count have won the game this season through 6 rounds, compared to 69% of teams who won the disposal count. This is likely a by-product of other key stats such as Contested Possessions and Clearances, but Metres Gained does reflect a team’s ability to move the ball forward into scoring positions.
Before Round 7, the Blues were second-to-last in metres gained per game (5,118 per game and 536 under league average). Adelaide, comfortably the best side through six rounds, averaged 6,382 metres gained and were well ahead of the pack. Under any measure, the Crows are going to score more points than the Blues due to their cattle. Part of this discrepancy is in game plan; Adelaide play a direct style on a big ground to give their potent forward line a chance, whereas Carlton need to lower the eyes and be more careful. Irrespective of forward talent, the Crows are pumping the ball inside 50 ten times more than the Blues each game and this is reflected in their Metres Gained tallies as well as their overall scoreboard impact.
Despite their own struggles in moving the ball, the Blues were middle of the road in metres gained against (5,705 or 54 above league average). This is reflective of the both Carlton’s game style and ability to retain the ball. Carlton are a low-possession team in general; they were second-to-last in total disposals and had the worst disposal differential in the league across six games (-241). Despite this, the Blues have been able to keep games close all season. Through seven games the Blues are averaging just 73 points, the worst mark in the league, but have only conceded 91 per game, which is the sixth best mark in the league. They have struggled to put the ball inside 50 themselves (equal 13th in the league with 49.7 through seven games), but are under league average in their inside 50s conceded (52.3 per game), which is giving their talented-but-young backline a chance and putting less pressure on their forward line to generate a winning score.
Carlton’s execution of this game plan involves taking their time with the ball and maintaining possession, and to their credit they’ve done a good job of it. They are averaging 104 marks per game, third in the league, and have the third lowest clanger count in the league. It doesn’t necessarily provide a free flowing, entertaining contest, but with such an inexperienced list they’ve managed to squeeze three wins through seven games and stay competitive in three others.
The Blues love to chip the ball around, far more than any other team; 64% of Carlton’s disposals are kicks and no other team is above 60% (the Cats are aren’t even at 50%). Here’s where this plan can unravel; a team that kicks the ball as often as the Blues should have the meters gained to show for it but the Blues are dead last in Metres Gained per kick (22.3m), and it’s not particularly close. Essendon, Melbourne and Hawthorn, three high possession teams, are the next three behind them but they still gain at least 1 metre more per kick than the Blues. Across the course of a game of football, when teams kick the ball on average 213 times, 1 metre per kick is significant. The quality of disposal is of equal concern; the Blues are third last in disposal efficiency through seven games at just 72.3%. Despite their own early struggles, the Hawks still have the best disposal efficiency at 75.3%, and the Giants are second at 75.2%. It doesn’t sound like much, but the Giants are effectively getting 10 more effective disposals a week than the Blues. Without Docherty, the chasm in the disposal efficiency and ball movement of the Blues and the best teams in the league is even bigger.
Like almost every elite small defender in the league, Docherty is a quality ball user. Docherty averages 27 disposals per game, almost 22 of which are kicks, and goes at 81% efficiency whilst doing it. Carlton’s three best midfielders; Murphy, Cripps and Bryce Gibbs are all reasonably high possession winners, but of that trio only Murphy goes at above 70%. Kade Simpson is averaging 23 touches per game, 17 of which are kicks, but is going at only 76%. Docherty is Carlton’s second most prolific ball winner, and of players with over 100 disposals only Lachie Plowman (90.7%) is using the ball more efficiently.
Not only does Docherty use the ball well, but he drives the ball forward far more than any other Blue. Docherty is 12th in the league for metres gained at approximately 491 per game. These are elite numbers from a player in a poor team. Rebound 50s are an overrated stat, but Docherty gets the ball out of his team’s back 50 approximately 5.9 times per game and drives the ball inside 50 1.9 times. This is good for sixth in the league in total combined rebounds and inside 50s. The Blues actually have 4 of the top 53 in metres gained across the league – Docherty (12th), Murphy (25th), Gibbs (52nd) and Simpson (53rd). None of them move the ball as well or as efficiently as Docherty.
The Blues are aware of this, and their look to give the ball to Docherty to launch their forward movements. After Round 6 Docherty was second in the league for marks at 9.4. Simpson and Caleb Marchbank both average nearly 8 marks per game themselves, reflective of both Carlton’s backline using each other to retain possession and open up space further afield.
Docherty’s mark numbers are evidence that his team mates look for him more than any other player, and even though there are now some quality players around him in that backline such as Marchbank and Plowman, stats show that teams will be better off if they can deny Docherty and put the ball in the hands of those players more often. Zone or team defence’s mean that opposition may even be content with Docherty, Simpson and co. to rack up the marks in their defensive half, as long as they are unable to drive the ball forward. Teams would likely back themselves in to force a turnover and score that way. Limiting Docherty’s ability to move the ball forward should be crippling for this team. After their best four ball movers, there isn’t really anyone for the Blues creative enough to get any ball movement going. Ed Curnow and Cripps are fifth and sixth for the Blues in metres gained and neither average over 300 metres per game. By cutting off Docherty’s supply and ability to use the ball, the pressure would mount on Plowman and Marchbank and the Blues would have real difficulties moving the ball forward. Both players have impressive disposal efficiency stats, but they’re far more comfortable with the short, sideways option, usually to a Docherty or a Simpson.
The move from Nathan Buckley to put Greenwood on Docherty was a calculated one; Collingwood boasts a deep midfield that should have been able to quell a talented but shallow midfield pool for the Blues. For what its worth, Greenwood did a number on Docherty while he sat on him; Docherty had just seven possessions in the time Greenwood followed him. Murphy’s brilliant performance was enough to drag him away from the dashing defender and back toward the skipper. The criticism of Buckley’s decision to put Greenwood on Docherty was just another chance to sink the boots into a coach under pressure, and teams shouldn’t be deterred from sending a player to Docherty against the Blues going forward.
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Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley copped plenty of criticism for his decision to send human glove Levi Greenwood to Sam Docherty over Marc Murphy in the weekend’s game against archrivals Carlton. Murphy continued his outstanding season with arguably a best afield performance, and the Blues secured a 79-56 win. The loss has seen the Magpies slide to 15th and the pressure further mounts on Buckley, but there’s plenty of merit in the decision to tag Docherty over Murphy when you look at the numbers.
Metres gained is an in-vogue statistic that, used out of context, doesn’t tell much about a player or a team’s performance. Sydney is currently 16th for total metres gained, but how much is due to their poor performance and how much is due to the fact that they play on the smallest ground in the country every second week? The SCG is 36 metres shorter than Domain Stadium, so in theory 50 lengths of the field by the same team at the different grounds would be mean a team gains 1,800 metres gained more without any significant difference in territory or field position. On a player-by-player basis, a significant portion of the highest ranked players by metres gained are defenders. This is to be expected as their role is to rebound, so coming deeper from the field will always mean they’re generating more metres gained than a forward. There are outliers though, and these players are the elite of the competition; Dustin Martin, Zach Merrett, Gary Ablett and Lance Franklin are all in the top 20. For every Ablett and Franklin there is a Jayden Hunt, who is 11th in the league for metres gained and averages nearly 500 metres per game while not being considered one of the game’s premier players. Comparatively, Patrick Cripps averages 288 metres gained per game. A player’s average metres gained is far more reflective of the style of player than their effectiveness or impact on the game. Hunt is a run-and-carry wingman/back flanker whereas Cripps is usually found at the coalface and is a clearance king. If you asked 100 Demons supporters who they’d take out of Hunt and Cripps, 99 would take Cripps and wonder what the other one was thinking.
Metres Gained can be a valuable metric when used in context. Out of all the key stats in games (disposals, disposal efficiency, contested possessions and Inside 50s), teams that win the Metres Gained count win the highest percentage of games; 89% of teams that won the Metres Gained count have won the game this season through 6 rounds, compared to 69% of teams who won the disposal count. This is likely a by-product of other key stats such as Contested Possessions and Clearances, but Metres Gained does reflect a team’s ability to move the ball forward into scoring positions.
Before Round 7, the Blues were second-to-last in metres gained per game (5,118 per game and 536 under league average). Adelaide, comfortably the best side through six rounds, averaged 6,382 metres gained and were well ahead of the pack. Under any measure, the Crows are going to score more points than the Blues due to their cattle. Part of this discrepancy is in game plan; Adelaide play a direct style on a big ground to give their potent forward line a chance, whereas Carlton need to lower the eyes and be more careful. Irrespective of forward talent, the Crows are pumping the ball inside 50 ten times more than the Blues each game and this is reflected in their Metres Gained tallies as well as their overall scoreboard impact.
Despite their own struggles in moving the ball, the Blues were middle of the road in metres gained against (5,705 or 54 above league average). This is reflective of the both Carlton’s game style and ability to retain the ball. Carlton are a low-possession team in general; they were second-to-last in total disposals and had the worst disposal differential in the league across six games (-241). Despite this, the Blues have been able to keep games close all season. Through seven games the Blues are averaging just 73 points, the worst mark in the league, but have only conceded 91 per game, which is the sixth best mark in the league. They have struggled to put the ball inside 50 themselves (equal 13th in the league with 49.7 through seven games), but are under league average in their inside 50s conceded (52.3 per game), which is giving their talented-but-young backline a chance and putting less pressure on their forward line to generate a winning score.
Carlton’s execution of this game plan involves taking their time with the ball and maintaining possession, and to their credit they’ve done a good job of it. They are averaging 104 marks per game, third in the league, and have the third lowest clanger count in the league. It doesn’t necessarily provide a free flowing, entertaining contest, but with such an inexperienced list they’ve managed to squeeze three wins through seven games and stay competitive in three others.
The Blues love to chip the ball around, far more than any other team; 64% of Carlton’s disposals are kicks and no other team is above 60% (the Cats are aren’t even at 50%). Here’s where this plan can unravel; a team that kicks the ball as often as the Blues should have the meters gained to show for it but the Blues are dead last in Metres Gained per kick (22.3m), and it’s not particularly close. Essendon, Melbourne and Hawthorn, three high possession teams, are the next three behind them but they still gain at least 1 metre more per kick than the Blues. Across the course of a game of football, when teams kick the ball on average 213 times, 1 metre per kick is significant. The quality of disposal is of equal concern; the Blues are third last in disposal efficiency through seven games at just 72.3%. Despite their own early struggles, the Hawks still have the best disposal efficiency at 75.3%, and the Giants are second at 75.2%. It doesn’t sound like much, but the Giants are effectively getting 10 more effective disposals a week than the Blues. Without Docherty, the chasm in the disposal efficiency and ball movement of the Blues and the best teams in the league is even bigger.
Like almost every elite small defender in the league, Docherty is a quality ball user. Docherty averages 27 disposals per game, almost 22 of which are kicks, and goes at 81% efficiency whilst doing it. Carlton’s three best midfielders; Murphy, Cripps and Bryce Gibbs are all reasonably high possession winners, but of that trio only Murphy goes at above 70%. Kade Simpson is averaging 23 touches per game, 17 of which are kicks, but is going at only 76%. Docherty is Carlton’s second most prolific ball winner, and of players with over 100 disposals only Lachie Plowman (90.7%) is using the ball more efficiently.
Not only does Docherty use the ball well, but he drives the ball forward far more than any other Blue. Docherty is 12th in the league for metres gained at approximately 491 per game. These are elite numbers from a player in a poor team. Rebound 50s are an overrated stat, but Docherty gets the ball out of his team’s back 50 approximately 5.9 times per game and drives the ball inside 50 1.9 times. This is good for sixth in the league in total combined rebounds and inside 50s. The Blues actually have 4 of the top 53 in metres gained across the league – Docherty (12th), Murphy (25th), Gibbs (52nd) and Simpson (53rd). None of them move the ball as well or as efficiently as Docherty.
The Blues are aware of this, and their look to give the ball to Docherty to launch their forward movements. After Round 6 Docherty was second in the league for marks at 9.4. Simpson and Caleb Marchbank both average nearly 8 marks per game themselves, reflective of both Carlton’s backline using each other to retain possession and open up space further afield.
Docherty’s mark numbers are evidence that his team mates look for him more than any other player, and even though there are now some quality players around him in that backline such as Marchbank and Plowman, stats show that teams will be better off if they can deny Docherty and put the ball in the hands of those players more often. Zone or team defence’s mean that opposition may even be content with Docherty, Simpson and co. to rack up the marks in their defensive half, as long as they are unable to drive the ball forward. Teams would likely back themselves in to force a turnover and score that way. Limiting Docherty’s ability to move the ball forward should be crippling for this team. After their best four ball movers, there isn’t really anyone for the Blues creative enough to get any ball movement going. Ed Curnow and Cripps are fifth and sixth for the Blues in metres gained and neither average over 300 metres per game. By cutting off Docherty’s supply and ability to use the ball, the pressure would mount on Plowman and Marchbank and the Blues would have real difficulties moving the ball forward. Both players have impressive disposal efficiency stats, but they’re far more comfortable with the short, sideways option, usually to a Docherty or a Simpson.
The move from Nathan Buckley to put Greenwood on Docherty was a calculated one; Collingwood boasts a deep midfield that should have been able to quell a talented but shallow midfield pool for the Blues. For what its worth, Greenwood did a number on Docherty while he sat on him; Docherty had just seven possessions in the time Greenwood followed him. Murphy’s brilliant performance was enough to drag him away from the dashing defender and back toward the skipper. The criticism of Buckley’s decision to put Greenwood on Docherty was just another chance to sink the boots into a coach under pressure, and teams shouldn’t be deterred from sending a player to Docherty against the Blues going forward.
