List Mgmt. Carlton's 2018 Draft Thread (cont. in Part 2)

[HarryFlashman]

Agree with all of that. Only a couple of things I might add

1) Following on from your final thought I think clubs might make provisional deals. Ie North says before draft night: IF Blakey gets bid on before our 1st, we will swap our 1st for your 2 x 2nds. If not, no deal. And we agree.
2) The AFL might frown upon live trading down to match a bid. The AFL wouldn't want clubs to 'weasel' out of the draft order plus it may break the AFL's loophole-closing 'as many picks as list spots' regulation.

Hmmm that opens up some interesting possibilities, you would think that given SOS is quite tight with a few of his peers (Dodo in particular) that opens a few doors. For eg. IF u needed someone to bid for you to get the best deal - obviously you couldn't bid (that's just dirty pool) but your mate Dodo could do it for you and you reciprocate where needed. The live trading looks like its going to come down to whos got the best relationships & is the best prepared- we could make out like bandits!

 

[Sector 7G]

LemmingMaster batting for us in the first trial Phantom currently being conducted.
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2018-big-footy-phantom-draft-trial-run.1199087/

So far we have 1. Lukosius 23. Duursma 26. BWilliams

Lets not worry about our midfield and go tall again.

 

[Malifice]

Picks 1 to Adel for 8, 15 & Galluci
23 & 26 to North for 11
2019 1st to Freo for 7.

We go to the draft with 7, 8, 11, 15 + former 1st round pick Galluci.

Nope.

Want a top 5 pick, preferably a top 3 pick.

Again; the top 6 (the two King boys, SA lads in Lukosious and Rankine, and the two Victorian mids in Smith and Walsh) are likely going to be elite at AFL level.

Any trade of Pick 1 needs to have a pick from 2-6 coming back as part of the deal.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

2019 1st to Freo for 7.

This scares the crap out of me!

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Nope.

Want a top 5 pick, preferably a top 3 pick.

Again; the top 6 (the two King boys, SA lads in Lukosious and Rankine, and the two Victorian mids in Smith and Walsh) are likely going to be elite at AFL level.

Any trade of Pick 1 needs to have a pick from 2-6 coming back as part of the deal.

We need mids and having pick 1 does not get us a mid.. it gets us Lukosious.. Lukosious, Rankine, King x 2 are KPP.. With pick 7 we will miss out on Walsh that is certain but are still a sneaky chance of getting Smith.

 

[coryne]

If Lynch is adamant he wants to leave GC, it will have to be through a trade

GC, would have more than enough money to match any deal put in front of him

Can see a Dangerfield scenario coming and we could still benefit

Who is going to do a better trade for Lynch than the #3 selection??? Geelong was forced to trade for Dangerfield as the compo pick was going to be worse than they could get in a trade. Lynch would be a totally different situation given the value of the compo pick.

 

[ParapMarkets]

If Richmond want him, they would have to trade out players with clubs that are at the lower end of the ladder to acquire the picks needed. It would go a long way to balancing the inequities of FA

It would be nice if it worked like that. If 2 top 12 picks is what they are after I think they are a better chance of getting it with pick 3 than they are off teams like Richmond and Collingwood.

 

[Malifice]

We need mids and having pick 1 does not get us a mid.. it gets us Lukosious..

It does get us a mid. We simply pick Walsh. Or Rankine. Done. Both are worthy pick 1's.

No guarantee that Smith and certainly Walsh are on the board at pick 8. I would expect both to be gone by then.

Hence why we need a top 6 pick in order to ensure we get one of them, preferably a top 3 pick.

 

[Arr0w]

Who is going to do a better trade for Lynch than the #3 selection??? Geelong was forxed to trade for Dangerfield as the compo pick was going to be worse than they could get in a trade. Lynch would be a totally different situation given the value of the compo pick.

They can do better than just a single pick

 

[Arr0w]

It would be nice if it worked like that. If 2 top 12 picks is what they are after I think they are a better chance of getting it with pick 3 than they are off teams like Richmond and Collingwood.

Depends on their priorities, if I was them, I would also be wanting some mature bodies

 

[coryne]

They can do better than just a single pick

Sure on an open market it may be possible but it won't be an open market, it will be who Lynch wants to be traded to.

The three front runners (if the media can be believed) are currently Hawthorn, Collingwood and Richmond. If things remain as they currently are Hawthorn will have picks 9 and 27, Collingwood will have picks 16 then 51 and Richmond will have picks 18 and 36. If Lynch ends up at any of those three teams then they would be expected to seriously improve their position in 2019 meaning that their first yr picks would likely be between 14-18 so even if they traded their 2018 and 2019 1st rd picks it would be of lesser value than #3 this year.

So I again ask who is going to offer a trade better than #3 for Lynch.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Lets not worry about our midfield and go tall again.

Yeah sorry about selecting Williams, I just could not justify selecting someone else instead of Williams at that selection.

I have not written up my bio but I will put it this way.

Curnow and Lukosius will have the ability to play through the midfield in my eyes. So picture the selection of Lukosius allowing them to both play in the midfield.
I think Williams has bucket loads of potential in the forward line along with the Ruck. I would place him as a Levi replacement and should help.

If I was selecting midfielders I would have probably picked Tom McKenzie or Kennerley.

 

[ParapMarkets]

Depends on their priorities, if I was them, I would also be wanting some mature bodies

I'm sure they do want mature players, they also have WC's first pick plus second rounders to try and achieve that. If they accept pick 3 they can use that as a huge incentive to every other club to try and entice some quality experience. If they reject free agency and just deal with Richmond or Collingwood they need to persuade only players at that particular club to come and join them, with pick 3 they could deal with ALL clubs (if they are willing to part with pick 3 as opposed to their other picks). I really don't see them getting better value than pick 3.

 

[Arr0w]

Sure on an open market it may be possible but it won't be an open market, it will be who Lynch wants to be traded to.

The three front runners (if the media can be believed) are currently Hawthorn, Collingwood and Richmond. If things remain as they currently are Hawthorn will have picks 9 and 27, Collingwood will have picks 16 then 51 and Richmond will have picks 18 and 36. If Lynch ends up at any of those three teams then they would be expected to seriously improve their position in 2019 meaning that their first yr picks would likely be between 14-18 so even if they traded their 2018 and 2019 1st rd picks it would be of lesser value than #3 this year.

So I again ask who is going to offer a trade better than #3 for Lynch.

I take it you are not considering players as part of the deal?

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

This is why the trading of player contracts needs to be made available.. hard to see any established contracted player from Hawks, Tigers or Pies agreeing to move to Gold Coast to make the deal work...

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

It does get us a mid. We simply pick Walsh. Or Rankine. Done. Both are worthy pick 1's.

No guarantee that Smith and certainly Walsh are on the board at pick 8. I would expect both to be gone by then.

Hence why we need a top 6 pick in order to ensure we get one of them, preferably a top 3 pick.

Rankine is not a mid from everything I have read

 

[HalAlaric]

Whilst I still want Lukosius in the Navy I can see why people are instead leaning towards Walsh. If Lynch does leave I would be interested in using this point as a great bargaining tool with GCS.
For example:
We trade 1 + 2019 2nd round pick to GCS for 3 + Brodie + Scrimshaw (with the promise they won't choose walsh but instead look to rankine etc)
This is way in our favour I know but it does allow them the prized number 1 in Lukosius.
With one of our seconds we look to trade in Adelaides Cam Ellis-Yolman and with our remaining 2nd round pick we nab Sydney Stack or Luke English.
Later picks to nab some of our father sons and perhaps give Penrith a spot on our rookie list.

So potentially we receive:
Walsh
Brodie
Scrimshaw
Ellis-Yolman
Stack or English
BSos
Will Hickmott
Manton
Penrith

Opinions may vary but I see this as an incredible but realistoc score for the club

 

[Tyruddanaut]

Dont see Adelaide holding anything that really jumps off the page for us .
Agree they will be desperate for Lukosius so they may well have to get other parties involved.

But they aren't lloking for depth in this draft, meaning we can get most of theirr picks

 

[Tyruddanaut]

Who is going to do a better trade for Lynch than the #3 selection??? Geelong was forced to trade for Dangerfield as the compo pick was going to be worse than they could get in a trade. Lynch would be a totally different situation given the value of the compo pick.

Three-way trade?

 

[coryne]

I take it you are not considering players as part of the deal?

Again what quality player from any of those three clubs are likely to want to go to the Suns as they are starting another rebuild? As we have seen high quality players rarely go to low ranked teams anymore. And any mid level players could be obtained with one of the plethora of picks which they already possess. (They currently possess 2, 7, 25, 29, 38 and 42) plus adding 3 would give them heaps of trade equity with ANY club they can.

 

[Stamos]

Depends on their priorities, if I was them, I would also be wanting some mature bodies

I think matching would be a mistake for the Suns, and it will only happen in very rare cases ie Dangerfield (where a combination of Adelaide's ladder position, Geelong's low $$ contract offer to Danger meaning it was easy for the Crows to match, and Geelong's ability and willingness to trade for him meant it could happen).

It would appear that Lynch has 3 suitors (Pies, Tiges, Hawks), and none of them are able to offer a pick/picks as valuable as #3 (which would appear to have extra value in this draft). Part of the appeal of Lynch to these clubs is that he is 'Free', and given the big money contract they will be offering, he is less appealing if they are going to be forced to make a trade which is valued at more than #3.

Your suggestion of a player/s trade doesn't really work, because which good players are going to leave the specific club that Lynch nominates, to go to the Gold Coast? However, #3 would give GCS the ability to trade for a mature player/s league wide, if they can find a target who wants to go there.

If GCS match, there would be a risk that they get stuck with Lynch, where they would be left with a big money ex-captain who doesn't want to be there.

Another advantage of taking the compo (and a reason I am opposed to any FA compo, especially in the 1st round) rather than matching is #3 is manufactured, neither the Gold Coast or whomever Lynch goes to has to pay it. All other clubs pay a small price, ie moving back one place in the draft order, but it is a massive added value to GCS and Lynch's new club.

 

[katmanblue]

You do realise that under Paul Roos the Dees traded away pick 2, which should have been Josh Kelly, for Dom Tyson and Christian Salem?

Paul Roos' trade suggestions are a joke.

By all reports they were keen on Billings for pick 2 anyway.

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[katmanblue]

and this is likely reliable information?

Tcp has a good track record.

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[katmanblue]

If Lynch chose Richmond or Collingwood I don’t think they would match. Pick 3 or a couple of picks in the teens? I think they would just take the compo.

They have to satisfy GC. Most managers would make sure that a deal is possible before making that choice.

Apparently Judd was leading towards Collingwood but we had the trade assests to make it happen so he 'chose' us.

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[katmanblue]

23 and 26 (and possibly PP) could be super appealing to other clubs too.

I think clubs mostly agree on top 5-10, and have their personal smokies late in the draft that they are willing to watch slide. But the mid-1st to 2nd round range is gets interesting with the chance of bolters and club faves.

Other club sees someone they rank at 10-15, still available in the 20s. They might throw something juicy at us for the chance to pick that player knowing he's likely gone at their next pick.

Only if future picks are up for grabs on the night. Otherwise all they could trade would be their later picks.

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