List Mgmt. Carlton's 2019 Draft Thread

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windows1

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My 2c on Ash.

I don't rate him super high. I'd have him late 1st Rd at best in last years draft. Reckon Jordan Clark as a similar type has him covered. I think he's pretty much a running h/b only. I envision him as being pretty close to Zac Jones with a bit more composure and delivery(not that hard).

But in saying that, i wouldn't be overly disappointed with him at 9 if we keep that on the night in this draft. We could do with some pace, we could do with some transition, we could do with some quicker entry.

I would take a few others though. I'm happy with our h/b talent and coverage not to jump at another one with a Top 10 pick.
Is it because he’s ‘only a hbf’ that you don’t rate or is it weaknesses in his performance at that role that bothers you?
 

bmaurizio

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If Henry and or Maginness were to be available at our pick 9/10, it’s a no brainer either would be great additions and will become very good footballers.
 

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TerryWallet

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Is it because he’s ‘only a hbf’ that you don’t rate or is it weaknesses in his performance at that role that bothers you?
It's a bit of both, plus a bit of other this and a bit of other that.

As i say, i just don't see him, as a package, as a Top 10 talent. But in an evenish, and imo average year, i wouldn't be aghast at him with a pick from 7 to more about where i have him at about 12 or so. I'm pretty damn sure he'll be a regular 1st 18 player so that's a good start, even if it's in just a generically very easy to fill position.
 

windows1

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It's a bit of both, plus a bit of other this and a bit of other that.

As i say, i just don't see him, as a package, as a Top 10 talent. But in an evenish, and imo average year, i wouldn't be aghast at him with a pick from 7 to more about where i have him at about 12 or so. I'm pretty damn sure he'll be a regular 1st 18 player so that's a good start, even if it's in just a generically very easy to fill position.
Take this the right way, it’s just helping me understand the depth and conviction of your view: how many games of his have you watched in full and how many would you say you concentrated closely on him in?
 

TerryWallet

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Take this the right way, it’s just helping me understand the depth and conviction of your view: how many games of his have you watched in full and how many would you say you concentrated closely on him in?
About half a dozen or so. And the games i watch i like to rewatch once or twice. And yeah i concentrate on the guys who are more relevant than not.
 

HARKER

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About half a dozen or so. And the games i watch i like to rewatch once or twice. And yeah i concentrate on the guys who are more relevant than not.
Often we have little choice but to watch the games on TV, but it sure does make for a huge difference watching them live and watching what players do without the ball as much as what they do with it.

I didn't see Lever play one game for injury but he had an aura about him. It was clearly evident for the respect he garnered.
Moore played an aura about him and it just stood out about the way his team-mates respected him and backed him to win his contests.
Walsh didn't have that aura but his work-rate was off the charts and became unmissable to watch for him getting from contest to contest.
I didn't like Wright in his draft year. Just something lacking. Likewise with Balic who didn't like things in tight.
Weitering was an absolute brute who got into peoples heads, which is why it was so frustrating watching him get aggressed instead of being the aggressor.

I could go on but you get the picture; Some players just come across as serious and some don't.
 

TerryWallet

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Often we have little choice but to watch the games on TV, but it sure does make for a huge difference watching them live and watching what players do without the ball as much as what they do with it.

I didn't see Lever play one game for injury but he had an aura about him. It was clearly evident for the respect he garnered.
Moore played an aura about him and it just stood out about the way his team-mates respected him and backed him to win his contests.
Walsh didn't have that aura but his work-rate was off the charts and became unmissable to watch for him getting from contest to contest.
I didn't like Wright in his draft year. Just something lacking. Likewise with Balic who didn't like things in tight.
Weitering was an absolute brute who got into peoples heads, which is why it was so frustrating watching him get aggressed instead of being the aggressor.

I could go on but you get the picture; Some players just come across as serious and some don't.

Absolutely. And even if you can't watch them live yourself, you can get that sort of information and feel from people who have. It's just a case of applying your own filter to the opinions you rate more.

Personally i'm fine with watching all the bigger stage games for projected AFL suitability gamewise, and then getting the various other trait info from guys who watch them week after week.

If you have the time and interest, like i luckily(?) do, you can watch/get/have enough relevant info to have an informed enough opinion to be confident enough to put it out there here on BF without necessarily pretending you are a fulltime pro..
 

LemmingMaster

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My 2c on Ash.

I don't rate him super high. I'd have him late 1st Rd at best in last years draft. Reckon Jordan Clark as a similar type has him covered. I think he's pretty much a running h/b only. I envision him as being pretty close to Zac Jones with a bit more composure and delivery(not that hard).

But in saying that, i wouldn't be overly disappointed with him at 9 if we keep that on the night in this draft. We could do with some pace, we could do with some transition, we could do with some quicker entry.

I would take a few others though. I'm happy with our h/b talent and coverage not to jump at another one with a Top 10 pick.
I also have slight concerns with regards to Ash being a HBF, but there are not a lot of midfielders that I rate super high in this draft class as well. I think taking a potentially elite HBF with our first pick is not terrible and if he does develop into a midfielder that is a bonus.
 

HARKER

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Absolutely. And even if you can't watch them live yourself, you can get that sort of information and feel from people who have. It's just a case of applying your own filter to the opinions you rate more.

Personally i'm fine with watching all the bigger stage games for projected AFL suitability gamewise, and then getting the various other trait info from guys who watch them week after week.

If you have the time and interest, like i luckily(?) do, you can watch/get/have enough relevant info to have an informed enough opinion to be confident enough to put it out there here on BF without necessarily pretending you are a fulltime pro..
I've learned not to listen to people too much, as they themselves have often been influenced by others.
Then you have those that like one type over another. They're a little odd to me but they do exist.

It is hard to be completely objective but I prefer to go to the champs on my own, as otherwise the chatter gets in the way of observation and analysis.
Can also become a little influencing if one thinks that the other party is better equipped to make judgement calls.

For me right now and on very limited input, there are some highly touted players I just don't like for us. Feel I've seen them before and know where they'll end up. Could and likely will be wrong though :)
 

TerryWallet

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I've learned not to listen to people too much, as they themselves have often been influenced by others.
Then you have those that like one type over another. They're a little odd to me but they do exist.

It is hard to be completely objective but I prefer to go to the champs on my own, as otherwise the chatter gets in the way of observation and analysis.
Can also become a little influencing if one thinks that the other party is better equipped to make judgement calls.

For me right now and on very limited input, there are some highly touted players I just don't like for us. Feel I've seen them before and know where they'll end up. Could and likely will be wrong though :)
There's nothing wrong with listening imo, just you apply your own filter that you learn to trust over time.

But in saying that, it's only an extra to your own judgement. No-one could describe me as "a herder" i don't think lol. And yeah i know you were commenting more generically.

I enjoy this month on here. Good footy yap. And no-one indulging in the worlds most wasteful obsession...whingeing about umps.
 

Blue__Balls

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Curious as to how the GWS pick swap talks are progressing with Melbourne. If they don't look like panning out for whatever reason (say Melbourne really like someone they don't expect to last to 6), perhaps there's an opportunity to present an alternative solution to GWS.

Give them our future first for Pick 6.

They match a bid for Green with their bevy of later picks, and pocket an additional first rounder for next season instead. If we plateau a bit next year, that's a top 6 pick, if we rise, it's perhaps in the 6-10 range. Maybe we make finals, but that's a less likely scenario on the risk/reward chart for GWS.

If they can't move up the order, they're just losing 6 to get Green anyway, so it's a clear win for them.

We get one of Young/Flanders/Stephens/Serong at pick 6.

We then float 9 to Geelong for 17 and a future first (theirs or WC's). Or to Brisbane for 16 and their future first. In either case, balance with some late swaps in their favour.

Essentially going from 9 and our future first to 6, 16/17, and a late future first. Fits into our overall strategy - target a potentially elite small or running player at the draft, another complementary player or slider at 16/17, and roll our future first back a bit with the intention of trading it anyway.

That later first this year is either a pure best available, or balances out the earlier pick. Ie. Stephens at 6, take a Weightman or Bergman, or reach for Pickett if we really love him (assuming someone likes him early given his invite to the draft). Or if we take Flanders or Serong at 6, go for a runner in Bianco, Rivers or Cooper Stephens at the later pick.
 

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FitzroyBlueBagger

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Any club that bids on Henry with a Top 10 Pick will be guaranteed to own him. While he's quite a good prospect, he's not Top 10 material. I think people need to take their small forward blinkers off.



I think people need to get their heads around the bigger picture for this year and next.
  1. Potentially 13 of the Top 30 picks in the 2020 Draft will be Father/Son, NGA or Northern State Academy selections.
  2. Pick 5 could end up being Pick 8, or Pick 10 could end up being 16, so in a trade sense, how much currency do you really think a 2020 mid 1st Rounder will actually hold???
  3. There will be 10-12 clubs aiming to reduce their exposure to next years draft and looking to top up through Free Agency and OOC players. The increased competition for these players will drive their price up both in terms of salary and the draft selections required to obtain them. If you thought West Coast and St.Kilda paid through the nose for Kelly and Hill, or that Essendon, Sydney and GCS wanted way overs for Daniher, Papley & Martin, then you better brace yourselves as they'll all be like this next year. Do you really want to be forking out $800k/yr for 4 years to a Jack Martin-type player or pay two Top 10 Picks for Papley???
  4. Forget Papley Bamboo Harvester, that boat has sailed IMO. If Pick 9 in a relatively uncompromised draft couldn't get a deal done then I don't know why people think a similar pick in a heavily compromised 2020 draft will.

Out: Pickett, Garlett, Kerr, Phillips, Lobbe, Schumacher, LeBois, Deluca, Fasolo, Thomas
Ten in total, but one could be offset given that Cottrell was brought in for Docherty.​
I would've loved to have seen SOS delist Polson and then bring him back as a Rookie given he already has a contract for next year. Although I suspect that boat may have sailed now. While Jimmae is a bit more knowledgeable in this area than me there are a couple of other clubs that have done this.​
In: Pittonet, Betts, Newnes.
(Martin isn't ours yet)​
So in answer to your question - Yes.


I've had Ash in around my Top 5 all year so expecting him to be there at Pick 9 or 10 isn't realistic IMO. I don't have an issue with Bianco or Dylan Stephens. They're more than solid enough prospects and should be realistically available at the selections I've taken them with.


  • I watched Tom Green almost single-handedly carry the Allies over the line against a very strong Vic Metro midfield that contained Rowell, Anderson & Maginness. Green was comfortably BOG. Rowell & Anderson have decimated & dominated at NAB League level, but up against the best of the best at the U18 Nationals both Green and Robertson had their measure. IMO Green is the best prospect in this years National Draft, while Robertson is the most under-rated.
  • I can't see anyone entering into a Pick Swap with GWS. They will simply finish too high up the ladder and in a heavily compromised 2020 Draft where Pick 17 could end up being Pick 30, I'm struggling to see how it would make any sense. GWS are not Geelong where I see the potential to slide.
  • GWS have already used Picks 12 & 18 to get themselves up to Pick 6 and they do not have the currency available (in either current or future picks) to make it worthwhile for Melbourne or Adelaide to enter into a trade. (see point 2).

Of the 3 kids you mentioned the only one I seriously looked at with Pick 22 was Elijah Taylor. Couldn't go with Dylan Williams as stress fractures of the back and young bodies are not a good mix and is a red flag for me. Lastly, I'm not a Pickett fan.
The stress fractures in the back are no doubt a serious concern and also are the type of injury that can continually linger on with ongoing problems or never fully recovering altogether, not sure how good or accurate scans and professional medical advice is these days with this type of injury but it would definitely be the reason why his predicted to slide so far...
Just on Taylor imo i think he’s probably the most gifted kid in the draft he has a few things to work on but if he can manage to bring it all together, wow lookout...
 

thylacine60

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There's nothing wrong with listening imo, just you apply your own filter that you learn to trust over time.

But in saying that, it's only an extra to your own judgement. No-one could describe me as "a herder" i don't think lol. And yeah i know you were commenting more generically.

I enjoy this month on here. Good footy yap. And no-one indulging in the worlds most wasteful obsession...whingeing about umps.
:thumbsu:
 

swuzzlebubble

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Curious as to how the GWS pick swap talks are progressing with Melbourne. If they don't look like panning out for whatever reason (say Melbourne really like someone they don't expect to last to 6), perhaps there's an opportunity to present an alternative solution to GWS.

Give them our future first for Pick 6.

They match a bid for Green with their bevy of later picks, and pocket an additional first rounder for next season instead. If we plateau a bit next year, that's a top 6 pick, if we rise, it's perhaps in the 6-10 range. Maybe we make finals, but that's a less likely scenario on the risk/reward chart for GWS.

If they can't move up the order, they're just losing 6 to get Green anyway, so it's a clear win for them.

We get one of Young/Flanders/Stephens/Serong at pick 6.

We then float 9 to Geelong for 17 and a future first (theirs or WC's). Or to Brisbane for 16 and their future first. In either case, balance with some late swaps in their favour.

Essentially going from 9 and our future first to 6, 16/17, and a late future first. Fits into our overall strategy - target a potentially elite small or running player at the draft, another complementary player or slider at 16/17, and roll our future first back a bit with the intention of trading it anyway.

That later first this year is either a pure best available, or balances out the earlier pick. Ie. Stephens at 6, take a Weightman or Bergman, or reach for Pickett if we really love him (assuming someone likes him early given his invite to the draft). Or if we take Flanders or Serong at 6, go for a runner in Bianco, Rivers or Cooper Stephens at the later pick.
Hoping this pans out because it's sounding more like there's 6 or 7 standouts this year and beyond that the questions and shortcomings start to appear.
One thing I think is GWS will need more points if they are matching without 6.
I'd prefer we split 9 into two this year picks rather than getting back into next year.
Our picks from 43 have combined points value to equate to about GWS future 2nd round. So with 6 plus say 2x top 20 we can offload the latter picks to help them with points, gain a 2nd rounder for next year.
 

windows1

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Just a thought- may have been canvassed by others and apologies if it has:

Given we now have next year’s second and third where we thought they’d be gone, do we think it’s likely we try and trade them for someone’s second this year?

To be there’s a lot of interesting prospects in the second round and now that we have that currency I’d be keen to see us try and exploit it.

What do others think?
 

DangerousD

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Just a thought- may have been canvassed by others and apologies if it has:

Given we now have next year’s second and third where we thought they’d be gone, do we think it’s likely we try and trade them for someone’s second this year?

To be there’s a lot of interesting prospects in the second round and now that we have that currency I’d be keen to see us try and exploit it.

What do others think?
It would be nice if there was someone that we rated highly, but what does it do, to our future trading plans? Will we be left compromised come trade period, if we are looking to trade a 1st but have already traded a 2nd and a 4th? It could make things difficult.
 

Bamboo Harvester

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Just a thought- may have been canvassed by others and apologies if it has:

Given we now have next year’s second and third where we thought they’d be gone, do we think it’s likely we try and trade them for someone’s second this year?

To be there’s a lot of interesting prospects in the second round and now that we have that currency I’d be keen to see us try and exploit it.

What do others think?
Great point windows....given the 2020 draft is going to be highly compromised, there may be clubs who have academy/father son picks who may want 2nd/3rd round picks to help secure their picks without having to pay overs.

Swans could be a possibility having picks 25 and 32.....but have a couple of academy kids who may be top 10 picks next year, so a 2020 2nd and 3rd round pick could have them licking their choppers. Gives us first crack at Riccardi as well before Pies get a sniff.
 

HARKER

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Some of the possibilities of how we may go in this draft;

Picks:
a. Keep pick #9
b. Trade out the #9 for two slightly later picks with - Gold Coast, Geelong, Fremantle, Port Adelaide or Brisbane.
c. Trade the #9 for a later pick and a future first - Brisbane, Geelong or Gold Coast

Feeling is that we'll hold onto the #9 until we know what is likely to be there.
Should what we want most slip us by, then the #9 is open to offers, albeit it may be too late on draft night.
If we did do the #15 and #20 with Gold Coast beforehand, I'd be happy as that would tell me we have types we're after and we know we'll get them.
I'd be happy with a 'risk' in taking two of Taylor, Dylan Williams, Weightman, Will Day, Pickett - The best two of course.

Wonder whether SOS may do a 'Rogers', as in his last draft who reached for 4 players whose total output combined to 32 games. :)
 

HARKER

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There's nothing wrong with listening imo, just you apply your own filter that you learn to trust over time.
But in saying that, it's only an extra to your own judgement. No-one could describe me as "a herder" i don't think lol. And yeah i know you were commenting more generically.
I enjoy this month on here. Good footy yap. And no-one indulging in the worlds most wasteful obsession...whingeing about umps.
That depends on who you're listening to though.

I'll listen to Matt Balmer (Bishop) because for me at least, he seems to have a deeper insight into players than many other observers.
What we get a lot of is 'surface-value' observations, player-bias, type-bias etc. i.e. You don't get the whole picture and it's often because the individual can't see beyond what he/she sees; What you see is what you get.
Look at the Adelaide board for instance; Many there are still of the 'knowledge' that Lukosius is the second-coming. They've been affected. :)
 

windows1

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ANother option, if GWS are unable to trade with Melb or Adelaide (more likely) to move up:

We trade with GWS for 6 as follows:

- swap 6 for 9
- swap next year’s firsts with gws
- swap next year’s third for their next year’s second

They go down to 9 which is about the right points for a matched bid with Swans.

For them:

They don’t waste the discount on green. They get what they hope is a top ten pick next year. Maybe top 5.

For us:

We get to move up and maybe get Flanders. The type in my view we really need. Get an extra second rounder.

Draft Points of all that aren’t too far apart in a world we finish say 10th and they 4th.
 

Coona Blues

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ANother option, if GWS are unable to trade with Melb or Adelaide (more likely) to move up:

We trade with GWS for 6 as follows:

- swap 6 for 9
- swap next year’s firsts with gws
- swap next year’s third for their next year’s second

They go down to 9 which is about the right points for a matched bid with Swans.

For them:

They don’t waste the discount on green. They get what they hope is a top ten pick next year. Maybe top 5.

For us:

We get to move up and maybe get Flanders. The type in my view we really need. Get an extra second rounder.

Draft Points of all that aren’t too far apart in a world we finish say 10th and they 4th.
While there is a degree of equity in your suggested trades, surely there is no way GWS does a fanciful trade unless they have the opportunity to
land Green plus another player. The only safe trading partner for them would be Melbourne, who have been getting historical "stick" for the trade
that netted GWS Josh Kelly. Melbourne would be wary of passing up a higher pick this time around in my opinion.

I don't believe we would be contemplating a move up the draft. Pick 9 will give us a decent player. A swap for two picks in the 15-25 range would be
ideal in this draft, but given the new rules/arrangements would be unlikely to happen until "the night". I see the only way a pre draft swap happens
is if there is some "fence mending" with Gold Coast to get them up the draft and facilitate a tidy acquisition of Jack Martin.
 

windows1

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While there is a degree of equity in your suggested trades, surely there is no way GWS does a fanciful trade unless they have the opportunity to
land Green plus another player. The only safe trading partner for them would be Melbourne, who have been getting historical "stick" for the trade
that netted GWS Josh Kelly. Melbourne would be wary of passing up a higher pick this time around in my opinion.

I don't believe we would be contemplating a move up the draft. Pick 9 will give us a decent player. A swap for two picks in the 15-25 range would be
ideal in this draft, but given the new rules/arrangements would be unlikely to happen until "the night". I see the only way a pre draft swap happens
is if there is some "fence mending" with Gold Coast to get them up the draft and facilitate a tidy acquisition of Jack Martin.
I only mean a live trade. And only in the event GWS fail to secure a trade with Melb or Adelaide.

I think we’d be interested if we really wanted Stephens or Flanders.
 

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