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List Mgmt. Carlton's 2019 Draft Thread

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swuzzlebubble said:
For example a deal like we did with the Crows last year.
Downgrade our future first in return for a pick in the teens this year.
Candidates could be Geelong who also have WCEs first.
Maybe the Bulldogs depending who they want at 13
Port who would probably rather do it for 18
GC hold 15 and we'd be talking our future first for their future 2nd
Hawks at 11?
Obviously you've got to make it worth their while, but you do it knowing who we're getting at their pick.
Click to expand...
Geelong could be the one if they take Kemp at 14 and then will deal with us for 17 where we take C Stephens.
 

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With the draft just a few days away I thought it might be time to put my thoughts down. We can look back in a few years and either revel in my brilliance or laugh at how far off the mark I was. I suspect the latter is far more likely.

Disclaimer: I am no draft expert. Far from it in fact. I barely see any footage throughout the year but in the lead up to the draft I read a lot and try watch as much footage as I can.

I have chopped and changed this so much so apologies if this comes across as nonsensical rambling...

Pick 9

Dylan Stephens is my #1 (realistic) target here and has been for a while now. I just love him as a prospect and think he has everything going for him to develop into a high quality football at AFL level.

Ash is next on my list and I'd be very comfortable taking him here particularly if Stephens is off the board. I see a lot of similarities between he and Simpson and he appeals as someone who could learn from and then replace Simmo in the next year or two.

Young. He's an outstanding talent and his ball use is just unbelievable. Every time I watch footage of him he just impresses me more and more. Seems to be sliding late despite spending most of the year entrenched in top 5 calculations. If he's there at 9 how can you possibly overlook him?

My selection at 9 is from the above group of three. I would ultimately be very happy with any of them.

If all three are off the board at our pick I am trading down, unless something crazy happens and Flanders is still around.

Kemp and Serong have been linked heavily to us. Both are outstanding talents and both sit in my top group of prospects. But I have real concerns about them, none are deal breakers and I certainly won't be distraught if we select one of them, but I am wary and see more value sliding down the order.

And who knows...if you slide down the order you might just get one of them anyway, and get a nice bonus on top.

There is also plenty of love for Robertson. You can see why and again he sits in my top group of prospects but I'm not sure he's a great fit for us and I'd rather look elsewhere. He reminds me a fair bit of Lachie Neale and you're not going to be disappointed with someone like that, but I am very happy with the young midfield brigade we have coming through already.

So...Trading Down

There has been a lot said about the depth of this draft, but I think there are plenty of nice prospects likely to be available in the teens and twenties and even beyond.

So if all three options are off the board come pick 9 I would be very comfortable splitting that pick and having two or even three bites of the cherry inside that top 25-30.

Who are the possible trading partners?

Port Adelaide - 12, 16, 18
Geelong - 14, 17, 24
Gold Coast - 15, 20

Things can change quickly with live trading but at the moment the above three teams appear most likely to be in a position to have a serious crack at trading into the top 10.

Geelong are my favoured trade partners and I would be all for trading hard and getting their three picks.

I certainly wouldn't pull the trigger before our pick came around but when it does hopefully there are still some players who the above teams are very keen on and are willing to pay handsomely for.

And if we do end up with two picks in that range...

Miles Bergman
Dylan Williams
Will Day
Cooper Stephens
Trent Rivers

Give me two of the above and I will be very happy, all appeal for different reasons but you would need to be wary of certain combinations. Eg. I wouldn't pick both Bergman and Williams.

And there's one more player who I'd give serious consideration to with a pick in that range, particularly if we get a third pick there, which brings me to my undervalued players...

Value

Outside of the top handful or so prospects there doesn't seem to be much of a consensus when it comes to this draft. Most players have a pretty wide range and it wouldn't surprise me if there are some who go significantly higher than predicted, and conversely some who slide a fair way lower than anticipated.

There are a few players who I think will resemble tremendous value throughout the draft:

Sam Philp - I love this kid. He's raw and needs to work on his outside game but his inside game is sensational. I have him inside my top 15 on upside alone and if we can trade with Geelong and get 3 picks inside 30 I would be all over him with that third pick.

Josh Honey - If you don't know I am big on this kid you haven't been reading my posts. Not many are talking about him as a draftable prospect; I have him inside my top 30.

Riley Garcia - Recovering from a serious knee injury which seems to have pushed him well down the board for many. Most have him going outside the top 50. I picked him at our 2nd pick in the Carlton board phantom draft and he also sits inside my top 30.

There are others I think could be great value as we get into the 50s and beyond but the above are my top 3 who I think will be taken lower than where they should be.

Make sense? No? Good.
 
Last edited:
Jeremias said:
With the draft just a few days away I thought it might be time to put my thoughts down. We can look back in a few years and either revel in my brilliance or laugh at how far off the mark I was. I suspect the latter is far more likely.

Disclaimer: I am no draft expert. Far from it in fact. I barely see any footage throughout the year but in the lead up to the draft I read a lot and try watch as much footage as I can.

I have chopped and changed this so much so apologies if this comes across as nonsensical rambling...

Pick 9

Dylan Stephens is my #1 (realistic) target here and has been for a while now. I just love him as a prospect and think he has everything going for him to develop into a high quality football at AFL level.

Ash is next on my list and I'd be very comfortable taking him here particularly if Stephens is off the board. I see a lot of similarities between he and Simpson and he appeals as someone who could learn from and then replace Simmo in the next year or two.

Young. He's an outstanding talent and his ball use is just unbelievable. Every time I watch footage of him he just impresses me more and more. Seems to be sliding late despite spending most of the year entrenched in top 5 calculations. If he's there at 9 how can you possibly overlook him?

My selection at 9 is from the above group of three. I would ultimately be very happy with any of them.

If all three are off the board at our pick I am trading down, unless something crazy happens and Flanders is still around.

Kemp and Serong have been linked heavily to us. Both are outstanding talents and both sit in my top group of prospects. But I have real concerns about them, none are deal breakers and I certainly won't be distraught if we select one of them, but I am wary and see more value sliding down the order.

And who knows...if you slide down the order you might just get one of them anyway, and get a nice bonus on top.

There is also plenty of love for Robertson. You can see why and again he sits in my top group of prospects but I'm not sure he's a great fit for us and I'd rather look elsewhere. He reminds me a fair bit of Lachie Neale and you're not going to be disappointed with someone like that, but I am very happy with the young midfield brigade we have coming through already.

So...Trading Down

There has been a lot said about the depth of this draft, but I think there are plenty of nice prospects likely to be available in the teens and twenties and even beyond.

So if all three options are off the board come pick 9 I would be very comfortable splitting that pick and having two or even three bites of the cherry inside that top 25-30.

Who are the possible trading partners?

Port Adelaide - 12, 16, 18
Geelong - 14, 17, 24
Gold Coast - 15, 20

Things can change quickly with live trading but at the moment the above three teams appear most likely to be in a position to have a serious crack at trading into the top 10.

Geelong are my favoured trade partners and I would be all for trading hard and getting their three picks.

I certainly wouldn't pull the trigger before our pick came around but when it does hopefully there are still some players who the above teams are very keen on and are willing to pay handsomely for.

And if we do end up with two picks in that range...

Miles Bergman
Dylan Williams
Will Day
Cooper Stephens
Trent Rivers

Give me two of the above and I will be very happy, all appeal for different reasons but you would need to be wary of certain combinations. Eg. I wouldn't pick both Bergman and Williams.

And there's one more player who I'd give serious consideration to with a pick in that range, particularly if we get a third pick there, which brings me to my undervalued players...

Value

Outside of the top handful or so prospects there doesn't seem to be much of a consensus when it comes to this draft. Most players have a pretty wide range and it wouldn't surprise me if there are some who go significantly higher than predicted, and conversely some who slide a fair way lower than anticipated.

There are a few players who I think will resemble tremendous value throughout the draft:

Sam Philp - I love this kid. He's raw and needs to work on his outside game but his inside game is sensational. I have him inside my top 15 on upside alone and if we can trade with Geelong and get 3 picks inside 30 I would be all over him with that third pick.

Josh Honey - If you don't know I am big on this kid you haven't been reading my posts. Not many are talking about him as a draftable prospect; I have him inside my top 30.

Riley Garcia - Recovering from a serious knee injury which seems to have pushed him well down the board for many. Most have him going outside the top 50. I picked him at our 2nd pick in the Carlton board phantom draft and he also sits inside my top 30.

There are others I think could be great value as we get into the 50s and beyond but the above are my top 3 who I think will be taken lower than where they should be.

Make sense? No? Good.
Click to expand...
Great post. Love it.
But, for some reason, I've always had Ash before Stephens
 
Jeremias said:
Stephens at 9
Honey has toured the club
Philp is an option and we may trade up to get him
Mott a possibility late in the draft

So this is what it's like in heaven...
Click to expand...

I like us being linked with Stephens, Honey and Philp because all have blistering speed, which is something we lack.
 
gezimnexhipi said:
Who will your club take in this year's NAB AFL Draft? Our guru makes the call
http://m.afl.com.au/news/2019-11-25/cal-twomeys-2019-phantom-draft-top-30-your-clubs-whispers
Click to expand...

Picks: 9, 43, 57, 67, 77 (likely to use three selections)
Click to expand...
The Blues have shown a tendency to draft brothers, with a pair of Silvagnis and Curnows already at the club, but could a third set be on the horizon? Carlton has been linked to Thomson Dow, the younger brother of No.3 pick Paddy, with its second overall selection. His draft range appears somewhere between 30-45, and Dow would appeal to the Blues with his speed and agility. Another player with speed and agility who recently toured Carlton's headquarters was Josh Honey (pictured below), who has enormous power and athleticism but had an up-and-down year as a midfielder with the Western Jets. Sam Philp is an option and if available in the 30s could we see the Blues trade up to get him? Daniel Mott, who was a consistent midfielder for the Calder Cannons this season, could be another who is looked at deeper into the draft. Former Bulldog Lukas Webb has been training at the Blues in the hope of another senior chance.
Click to expand...
 

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HARKER said:
That's a serious flip from the conventional and taking us out of 'Serong range'

If that was to come about I reckon will seriously consider offers elsewhere. Interesting, isn't it?
Click to expand...

Surprised that Robertson and Kemp make it to picks 15 and 16.

He's probably on the money with the first 8 selections. If we're open to trading our selection, pick 9 will shape the draft.
 
Eiffel 65 said:
Surprised that Robertson and Kemp make it to picks 15 and 16.

He's probably on the money with the first 8 selections. If we're open to trading our selection, pick 9 will shape the draft.
Click to expand...
If Stephens is on the board and we don’t pick him I’m going postal.

Early warning.
 

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windows1 said:
If Stephens is on the board and we don’t pick him I’m going postal.

Early warning.
Click to expand...

What if we could get Kemp/Robertson + late 1st rounder (say Rivers)?

I'd strongly consider that but very happy with Stephens.

One a side note, if Twomey's phantom is anything to go by, it doesn't look like Dylan Williams will go in the top 30. If he really starts to slide, I would love to bring him in. He's the type of player we don't have on our list.
 
Eiffel 65 said:
What if we could get Kemp/Robertson + late 1st rounder (say Rivers)?

I'd strongly consider that but very happy with Stephens.

One a side note, if Twomey's phantom is anything to go by, it doesn't look like Dylan Williams will go in the top 30. If he really starts to slide, I would love to bring him in. He's the type of player we don't have on our list.
Click to expand...
I just think Stephens is really good and what we need with Murph going. Both Best available and Needs. Unfortunately I haven’t been able to find any games of Rivers playing midfield. He apparnelty did well but I’d rather see it. So I reserve judgment. The more I re-watch Kemp I keep thinking ‘speculative’. Not really up for speculative. Not if Stephens is there.

So nope. Will be going postal.
 
Eiffel 65 said:
What if we could get Kemp/Robertson + late 1st rounder (say Rivers)?

I'd strongly consider that but very happy with Stephens.

One a side note, if Twomey's phantom is anything to go by, it doesn't look like Dylan Williams will go in the top 30. If he really starts to slide, I would love to bring him in. He's the type of player we don't have on our list.
Click to expand...
I'd be happy with Stephens, but the trade down option of 12 & 18 from Port would be tempting.

Sos would need to have a good handle on who he wants and could get trading down.
 
ferrisb said:
Because they have no tall forwards apart from a hot-and-cold McDonald.

And by the time Jackson is fully-ish developed, big Maxy will be Gawn...
Click to expand...
Speaking of Rucks/Tall Forwards I would be very happy if we took Callum Jamison with pick 57 or if still there definitely 67 has huge upside and would be a absolute bargain at 57 or 67 has a great leap and some of his tap work is really exceptional as well as covering the ground really well and a good mark overhead, the perfect partner for DK in the future. Any thoughts Terry Wallet, Bamboo Harvester or anyone else?
 

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