List Mgmt. Carlton's 2019 Draft Thread

[Pafloyul]

Didn't we have 5 list spots available before tonight Jim? If that's correct, Kemp, Philps, 43, Martin and a spot open to add a player later. Wouldn't have used 55 in that case.

The way I look at it, pick 55 trumps a pick in the preseason draft. Maybe there's not as much chance of picking the next Kelly, but a much better chance at getting a better than average player going forward.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Look after yourself Elmer...Carlton, Leeds and the world all need you up and about

Cheers mate. Tbh supporting Leeds has been a lot like Carlton in the past 15 years, we'be through it all together and we've had our ups and downs.


Can't imagine my life without supporting both though

 

[DangerousD]

On Philp, the upside is really obvious for everyone to see. He's a yard quicker over 20m than pretty much every other midfielder in the draft. His combine was sensational:

• 1st in 20m sprint test recording 2.867 seconds (think Jack Petrucelle quick)
• Equal 5th vertical jump recording 69cm
• Equal 5th on yo-yo test recording 21.5

Most importantly, he knows how to win his own ball and was racking up some decent numbers in the NAB league.

He's a real point of difference player. No doubt his draft combine results made him rocket up the draft board.

I guess, I like many, get locked in on a player (Robertson) and find it slightly concerning we pick a guy, not picked for the champs, over the captain of the best side and the best player from the champs.

 

[windows1]

I guess, I like many, get locked in on a player (Robertson) and find it slightly concerning we pick a guy, not picked for the champs, over the captain of the best side and the best player from the champs.

No one else picked him either mate. He got passed over twice by Freo- his most logical club. Port and Cats had multiple picks and ignored him. Cats badly need midfield depth and went for Cooper Stephens instead.

I’m quite comfortable that the professionals from multiple clubs all doubted him.

Sure people will cherry pick evidence to suit their argument (eg Worpel). However ON BALANCE the probability is they are right a hell of a lot more often than they are wrong.

 

[bluebunz]

The way I look at it, pick 55 trumps a pick in the preseason draft. Maybe there's not as much chance of picking the next Kelly, but a much better chance at getting a better than average player going forward.

If Lukas Webb is good to go, he's way better value than pick 55 and a preseason pick combined

 

[The Grover]

Options for our remaining pick

Taheny
Williams
Mahoney
Cahill

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Surely the boat has sailed on Robertson now that we've drafted Kemp and Philp - need to diversify a bit with our picks and balance the list rather than fixating on one name.

Understand what you are saying and agree about balance but if you rate someone as highly as I do Robertson then I just couldn’t let it go. Especially because I think the long term price (after possible future pick swaps ect) could be very low. I also think another accumulator would be very handy. That’s all very subjective though. For me our greatest needs now are small forwards and outside run so fingers crossed there.

Just on balance I find our picks interesting. Two players who are very similar to other highly rated kids we have in Dow and Setterfield.

 

[BigBreakfast]

Just another thought bubble (apologies if someone else has already posted similar - haven't had time to read the whole thread).....SOS trading up with Port means we've taken 2 first round picks in 2019. We now have the latitude to trade out of the first round for the next 3 years and not be in breach of AFL rules.

If we'd kept our original pick (or picks 17 and 22), we'd only have taken one 1st rounder, so still need to take a 1st over the next few years which restricts trading options. Moving 22 to 20 means we can now trade firsts for 3 years without any restrictions.

Not sure if this was intentional, but a handy by-product of the deals.

Good catch SV. Important consideration unless you are Hawforn.

 

[HARKER]

Disappointed we didn't get Coniglio - In the end we couldn't do any about it any more than Hawthorn could, given the circumstances. Well done CFC.
Disappointed we didn't get Papley - The target was right, the reasoning was right but it just wasn't to be in the end.

Wines - I'm glad we didn't get him and for what we would have had to have paid for him. Some people at the club may be disappointed but given Coniglio, who's by far the better fit for us didn't work out, Wines would have made for a poor consolation prize at much the higher cost. Let's back in Setterfield instead.

Martin - Coming for nothing....You're always going to pay money but it all fits by way of where we are and our TPP requirements.

Newnes - Good free hit. No issue at all here.

Betts - All in all, a good pick-up even if for a short on-field stint.

Kemp & Philp - The design in getting the players we rated high was A-Grade. Missed on the early targets and most clubs would have buckled and gone next best (consensus based) but SOS took a chance and nailed it.

All in all - Lots of work done for what looked like little but in the end, the netting was very good under extreme pressure.

 

[Mr_Plow]

Disappointed we didn't get Coniglio - In the end we couldn't do any about it any more than Hawthorn could, given the circumstances. Well done CFC.
Disappointed we didn't get Papley - The target was right, the reasoning was right but it just wasn't to be in the end.

Wines - I'm glad we didn't get him and for what we would have had to have paid for him. Some people at the club may be disappointed but given Coniglio, who's by far the better fit for us didn't work out, Wines would have made for a poor consolation prize at much the higher cost. Let's back in Setterfield instead.

Martin - Coming for nothing....You're always going to pay money but it all fits by way of where we are and our TPP requirements.

Newnes - Good free hit. No issue at all here.

Betts - All in all, a good pick-up even if for a short on-field stint.

Kemp & Philp - The design in getting the players we rated high was A-Grade. Missed on the early targets and most clubs would have buckled and gone next best (consensus based) but SOS took a chance and nailed it.

All in all - Lots of work done for what looked like little but in the end, the netting was very good under extreme pressure.

Shows the value of composure when things aren't going one's way. SOS is very good at it.

 

[MITSUHIRATO]

Hey guys sorry to intrude! Very shrewd work last night and it had me a little intrigued. What was the purpose of the second trade of 22 and 55 for 20? Was it thought that Philp would go in those 2 picks, otherwise you could have had the first selection tonight (more time to think) and a free shot later on? Just curious


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Brisbane and Richmond were both keen on him.

Brisbane was trying to trade up at the same time according to Matt Balmer. Seems we beat them to the punch.

 

[HARKER]

Shows the value of composure when things aren't going one's way. SOS is very good at it.

I don't think a lot could have done what he did, if not for being confident of knowing what's going to unfold thereafter.

I guess having done the research stands for plenty and then being able to sit it out until thee picks come around.

Didn't SOS look happy with himself when the name Kemp dropped?

 

[DangerousD]

Get the feeling we will use next year's pick/s to trade back into this draft

I hope so, I see good value in doing a 1st round pick swap with someone in exchange for a second. If we are targeting Papley again, a pick around 12-14 is ideal.
Could we tempt a Geelong or someone in to a trade?

I’m all about needs tonight, a medium defender, small forwards

 

[DangerousD]

D’Intinosante.

Whilst your here

Why is this kid, just a rookie? He was second in goal kicking for the comp (was when I last checked) and has won the Knights bandf the last two years, I think. Yet there is no love.

Have you seen much of him?

 

[BigBreakfast]

Surely the boat has sailed on Robertson now that we've drafted Kemp and Philp - need to diversify a bit with our picks and balance the list rather than fixating on one name.

Reckon he will go pretty early. His manager will work the phones with clubs. Recruiters will remind themselves how good he he is. Won't get past the Lions at 31.

 

[Siegfried]

PHILP

His name is PHILP ffs

Oops. And I'm a bit spelling and grammar obsessed...my bad.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Understand what you are saying and agree about balance but if you rate someone as highly as I do Robertson then I just couldn’t let it go. Especially because I think the long term price (after possible future pick swaps ect) could be very low. I also think another accumulator would be very handy. That’s all very subjective though. For me our greatest needs now are small forwards and outside run so fingers crossed there.

Just on balance I find our picks interesting. Two players who are very similar to other highly rated kids we have in Dow and Setterfield.

Good for the health of the list.

Plenty of time for Dow, but he's still a fair way off the pace for an AFL mid - I like having another option coming through two years behind him as insurance, and as motivation for him to do everything he can to reach his high potential.

And while Kemp is similar in ways to Setterfield, the most important way is that they're both versatile. Don't think any club is going "Two Bontempelli's? How can we possibly fit both of them in alongside Cripps?!" Cripps goes forward and the midfield still has a height advantage (and Kemp is quick). Kemp or Setterfield have a spell in the backline, or on a wing, or in the forward line, and yep, the midfield is still Cripps + a big mate.

I just don't think Robertson has enough going for him to offer a significant point of difference in our midfield.

Cripps is Cripps, Walsh runs all day and has footy IQ off the charts, Setters has great vision, size, agility and hands, Stocker has a burst of pace and is a great dual-sided kick, SPS makes time stop and has elite vision and disposal, Fisher can turn on a dime and then turn on the jets to take the ball into space, Dow is a bull and can explode out of packs, Philp the same but is even quicker, Kemp is Setterfield light with better acceleration.

Robbo has plenty of heart, and it'll put him in good stead for his long-term career wherever he ends up - I just don't see him adding anything particularly unique to our on-ball brigade.

 

[mochacinolatte]

Kemp and Phlip will have my unwavering support.

#GoBlues2020

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

No one else picked him either mate. He got passed over twice by Freo- his most logical club. Port and Cats had multiple picks and ignored him. Cats badly need midfield depth and went for Cooper Stephens instead.

I’m quite comfortable that the professionals from multiple clubs all doubted him.

Sure people will cherry pick evidence to suit their argument (eg Worpel). However ON BALANCE the probability is they are right a hell of a lot more often than they are wrong.

One dimensional and not a great kick, they often slide. I think this is mostly because if they don’t make it in one role then they are a bust where a more versatile player can atleast make a player of themselves in a more peripheral role. (This is probably the worry on Dow atm)

 

[Siegfried]

The way I look at it, pick 55 trumps a pick in the preseason draft. Maybe there's not as much chance of picking the next Kelly, but a much better chance at getting a better than average player going forward.

Wasn't thinking PSD (that will be Martin). Was thinking we might want to leave a spot open in case of injury or for the midseason draft next year, in a similar way to how we picked up Gibbons. Suspect (no inside information) that's what we'll do. In which case, only one more draft pick (43).

 

[Windhover]

Just feels like SOS is trading at another level with teams.
As others have said, he has certainly gone to the Bill Belichick school of list design. He is often trading out of high picks into multiple late first and early second round selections. If you back in your talent identification, you can really build a well balanced list. Then we've managed to trade our way into a number of solid players and it really is shaping as a master class on list building.

I agree with you that SOS has been list-building at an elite level. But it is much more than just backing talent id and he has not, previously, traded out a high pick for multiples (excluding the Stocker trade which was part of the current multi).

When SOS started he had the advantage of a list almost at ground zero in terms of quality to win a flag. Cripps was the only required player. But you can't just trade out everyone of value for draft picks. You need to keep an on-field structure that enables youngsters to develop potential into reality. [Scrimshaw now at Hawks shows what has happened at Gold Coast.]

SOS has nevertheless traded well (Henderson, Tuohy, Gibbs) to add to the high draft picks our on-field performances have merited. We now have a nucleus of probable AAs: forward (Charlie, Harry) back (Weitering) and in the midfield (Walsh).

SOS also wanted to trade pick 9 (last year or this) for a quality outside mid (like a Kelly, Gaff or a Shiel) or mid/forward (Papley) to add to that group. This would have accelerated the improvement in the list to the advantage of talent like Fisher, Dow and Cuningham. IMO this was the right call and SOS, having tried, cannot be blamed for not being able to get the deal done.

Having failed to trade pick 9 SOS looked at trying to trade back up to 4 in the draft (Young or Ash?). When this could not be done he has cleverly calculated how to maximise pick 9 by getting us both Kemp and Philp, each of whom looks promising and versatile enough to develop in a variety of roles as may be required to improve depth.

You need star players but you also need a list of up to at least 25 good quality players. Such is the improvement in our list (and there is much improvement from potential to reality to go) that our best 22 next year probably does not include either Kemp or Philp. Indeed both may become great players for us and not get a single game next year. Compare that to SOJ who played 8 games in his first year as a very young 18 yo.

About the only holes SOS has not filled are the small forward role (and that has not been through lack of trying) and the ruck. My own opinion is that it is essential to have a ruck of sufficient quality that they can prevent the opposing ruckman from doing as he likes. Whether TDK and/or Pittonet can, when Kreuzer retires, do as much remains to be seen. Kreuzer, though 31 next year and injury-prone, might still be around for a flag in 2022 but there can be no guarantee. And we want to be in a position to win the flag well after 2022.

As for small forwards, whilst the class and talent of Betts, R Gray, Papley and the like are exhilarating and extraordinary, the modern small forward need have none of those qualities if their defensive pressure is good. Take Castagna. And if their defensive pressure is no good their class and talent at kicking goals out of nothing will not keep them in the team, unless a revised game plan can be implemented. I have high hopes the likes of Cuningham, Martin, Fisher, Dow and Gibbons can play that role.

It will be a shame to remove him from our list management, I hope Little is worth it.

The ability to judge the draft that trading away our pick 9 to still pick up the player we wanted and also add pick 22 (upgraded to 20) was a master class. The risk was there, but no doubt a bucket load of research had been placed into the potential options.

Yes, that ability was no doubt combined with luck. But you can only get that lucky by doing the research work. It also seems clear that SOS knew Richmond intended taking Philp (they ended up taking Dow) and that upgrading to 20 was vital to nab him. The cost, the loss of pick 55, is almost irrelevant. By that stage there are so few live picks left and so many players to choose from that have all been rejected over multiple rounds by every club that, essentially, if you want a player with that pick you will most probably get them with any pick.

 

[DangerousD]

No one else picked him either mate. He got passed over twice by Freo- his most logical club. Port and Cats had multiple picks and ignored him. Cats badly need midfield depth and went for Cooper Stephens instead.

I’m quite comfortable that the professionals from multiple clubs all doubted him.

Sure people will cherry pick evidence to suit their argument (eg Worpel). However ON BALANCE the probability is they are right a hell of a lot more often than they are wrong.

It will be interesting to see where he lands and how he goes. Going off TerryWals stats, his kicking is a lot better than is made out to be.
Like Allen a few years ago, I don’t understand how some of these kids slide, I love everything about Robertson’s game andwhilst it’s clear he wasn’t a top 10 pick, I’m very surprised he’s still there.

I do find it strange, the idea that you pick players who you think have the greatest ceiling but possibly ignore players with a high floor.

There are lots of good players picked in the 20s, so there is nothing wrong there, good luck to him

 

[BigBreakfast]

Is there televised coverage if the rest of the draft?

 

[Milanista28]

Just wanted to say, Loved how you went about it last night, SoS came to play.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Good for the health of the list.

Plenty of time for Dow, but he's still a fair way off the pace for an AFL mid - I like having another option coming through two years behind him as insurance, and as motivation for him to do everything he can to reach his high potential.

And while Kemp is similar in ways to Setterfield, the most important way is that they're both versatile. Don't think any club is going "Two Bontempelli's? How can we possibly fit both of them in alongside Cripps?!" Cripps goes forward and the midfield still has a height advantage (and Kemp is quick). Kemp or Setterfield have a spell in the backline, or on a wing, or in the forward line, and yep, the midfield is still Cripps + a big mate.

I just don't think Robertson has enough going for him to offer a significant point of difference in our midfield.

Cripps is Cripps, Walsh runs all day and has footy IQ off the charts, Setters has great vision, size, agility and hands, Stocker has a burst of pace and is a great dual-sided kick, SPS makes time stop and has elite vision and disposal, Fisher can turn on a dime and then turn on the jets to take the ball into space, Dow is a bull and can explode out of packs, Philp the same but is even quicker, Kemp is Setterfield light with better acceleration.

Robbo has plenty of heart, and it'll put him in good stead for his long-term career wherever he ends up - I just don't see him adding anything particularly unique to our on-ball brigade.

I totally understand your balance argument but it becomes down to how you rate the individual. For me I really rate players like Kemp but he could just as easy be a Langford or Philp a Jonathan O’Rourk. I would prefer Robertson because I think he is the better footballer. For me Robertson is much more likely to become a T Mitchell then Philp is to even become a better then average player. That’s just me though and everyone’s opinion is different.
I actually really like the look of Philp as a player but say if instead of us Port took him at 22 I wouldn’t be saying shit Port got a good one there. For me he is just one of about 15 sort of talents yet to be picked who could all become good players.
Anyway all things considered I’m actually very happy to walk away with Kemp and Philp even though it wasn’t my preference.