List Mgmt. Carlton's 2020 Draft Thread

[HARKER]

100%. If you look at the draft rankings and just remove the NGA players you get a different perspective on essentially the same outcome.

Of course it is.

Imagine this - You're holding pick #10 and the club before you starts bidding on Academy/NGA/FS players.
They bid on 5 of them and now your pick is #15. You still get the player you were always going to take, but instead of him being seen as a top ten player, he's now out of centre stage. Do you think any less of him?

Crazy right?

 

[The Grover]

We will either need to take a jet mid at this pick: Phillips, Bruhn, or we won’t have it because we have used it to acquire other mids via trade.

This kid looks like the business though!

Wowee, the pace takes the game on, is he right or left foot? He kicked a set shot on his left.

Northern have a gun and of course he’s not NGA

 

[bmaurizio]

We've heard it and seen it already, reading between the lines.

Our first port of call is to attain the types we need and to again paraphrase Liddle -
1. A line-breaking backman 2. Inside/outside midfielder 3. Smaller goal-kicking forward.

We have one of those now and two more to go.
I don't think we particularly care for this years draft if we get wha we want and if we don't......off to the draft with #7. No harm done.

Yup succinctly put, agree with you , we’re in a pivotal position with good depth of young talent.
Sure we’ve been down and out for years which is painful and sucks, no doubt enough of the gloom our horizon is very bright with some much young young talent at our disposal success is here.

 

[gandaal]

Just on pick on J U-H being rated pick 1.
Won't the Bulldogs be stretched to match that?

If the Saints beat them, and they go to the draft with the picks they have now, the dogs can match with their 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks without going into deficit.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

If the Saints beat them, and they go to the draft with the picks they have now, the dogs can match with their 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks without going into deficit.

So Dogs need to tank this week’s final....

 

[No1Suspect]

I recon collingwood would be pretty keen to move up in the draft, aging mids in pendles and sidebottom.... chance to get one of the better mids in the draft. Finals performance pending id be keeping an eye on who has 12, our pick should be before the majority of the bids come and would be pretty enticing.

 

[DangerousD]

1. Suns AFL Charity Pick (traded to Cats) pushes that out to Pick 13.
2. Dogs having to match bid on JUH pushes that out to Pick 14.
3. Paying Williams $750k/yr probably means Level 1 compo which pushes that out to Pick 15.
4. Pies will match bid on NGA McInnes which pushes that out to Pick 16.
5. Swans will match bid on Campbell which pushes that out to Pick 17.

That nice mid 1st Rounder the Doggies had has now almost been pushed out to an early 2nd Rounder. This scenario assumes that there will be no further matching of bids on F/S, NGA or Academy selections before Pick 12.

Is the number of the pick entirely relevant?

The Dogs will match a bid for JUH, but he wasn't available to us or anybody else regardless, if he is matched at pick 1, the Crows still get the 1st pick of players available.
If Collingwood match a bid for Mcinnes, yes our pick would slide, but you are still in the same position in terms of picking available players, you are also assuming a bid for Mcinnes comes early, is it a certainty?

These pics for academy players might push the number selection we pick at out but the pool of players we are choosing from is the same, in a few cases, it also brings our 2nd and 3rd round pick forward, unless a few teams trade in more draft points.

Also, what's the benefit to the dogs in trading out their 1st this year for ours next? If they did that, wouldn't they carry over a large deficit in to next season.

 

[DangerousD]

I hope not.......and not because the kid can't play. Bruhn did an ACL in his underage year and then had to undergo surgery again on the same knee to repair a damaged meniscus at the start of this year. Essentially you'd be relying on U16 form to justify his selection. We strapped on Kemp last year who'd just done an ACL and is still yet to play, so I'd rather see how that experiment goes first before strapping on another with similar issues. The other thing I'm mindful of is that we have an injury-plagued playing list as it is without going out of our way to add to it.

This times 1000, drafting a guy in the first round who has already suffered an ACL should be rare and not something you do unless its just too good of an opportunity. There is just too much risk they will re-injure themselves and the risk that the player they return as, is not the same as pre injury. We already have Doch on two, Setters on one, Kemp on one and a raft of other injury prone players.

Picking durable players needs to be important.

 

[Gingerbread man]

You need to be very careful what you ask for when flinging around half-arsed wish lists.

For example, let's just say the Doggies want to offload their 1st Round Pick this year for our 2021 1st Rounder. As the ladder currently sits that would be Pick 12, but you need to factor in the following:

1. Suns AFL Charity Pick (traded to Cats) pushes that out to Pick 13.
2. Dogs having to match bid on JUH pushes that out to Pick 14.
3. Paying Williams $750k/yr probably means Level 1 compo which pushes that out to Pick 15.
4. Pies will match bid on NGA McInnes which pushes that out to Pick 16.
5. Swans will match bid on Campbell which pushes that out to Pick 17.

That nice mid 1st Rounder the Doggies had has now almost been pushed out to an early 2nd Rounder. This scenario assumes that there will be no further matching of bids on F/S, NGA or Academy selections before Pick 12. It also assumes that there will be no more level 1 Free Agency Picks awarded to teams who finish below the Doggies. It also assumes that the Doggies finish no higher than 7th.

Are we starting to get the picture about where those two Cats Picks are likely to end up???. Essentially they'll be Picks in the twenties equivalent to early 2nd Rounders. Given that there will be matched bids on Campbell & JUH the simple reality is that Pick 7 will most likely end up being Pick 9. Our 2nd Rounder, currently Pick 27 is likely to end up being in the 35-40 range with this draft being so compromised.


I hope not.......and not because the kid can't play. Bruhn did an ACL in his underage year and then had to undergo surgery again on the same knee to repair a damaged meniscus at the start of this year. Essentially you'd be relying on U16 form to justify his selection. We strapped on Kemp last year who'd just done an ACL and is still yet to play, so I'd rather see how that experiment goes first before strapping on another with similar issues. The other thing I'm mindful of is that we have an injury-plagued playing list as it is without going out of our way to add to it.

They are my concerns also about Bruhn as well but on the other side of the coin I have heard first hand he is a ripping young bloke who had elite skills as a 6 yo

 

[The Smoking Gun]

They are my concerns also about Bruhn as well but on the other side of the coin I have heard first hand he is a ripping young bloke who had elite skills as a 6 yo

You gotta love the old typo GBM. It'll be interesting to see how things change once the State Combine has been done.

 

[Gingerbread man]

You gotta love the old typo GBM. It'll be interesting to see how things change once the State Combine has been done.

Even after the combine recruiters will be taking some educated guesses.
PS. Was not a typo

 

[katmanblue]

They are my concerns also about Bruhn as well but on the other side of the coin I have heard first hand he is a ripping young bloke who had elite skills as a 6 yo

Bit hard drafting a bloke based on his under 7s form.

On SM-N960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[TerryWallet]

The calibre of some of these players in this draft, actually more than some, makes it disappointing we didn't get a season in Vic and a national carnival to watch.

Some great types. All types. They look like a very good bunch.

I have the ones who impressed me from last year in Ugle-Hagan,DGB, Hollands and Connor Stone. Then i like the look of Archie Perkins. Something about him. That Cox kid is intriguing at 200cm at both ends and both sides. McDonald seems one out of the box even though i've yet to see him. Thilthorpe another top forward/tall. Phillips looks a given, and the Sydney duo. And quite a few more.

Shame about Hollands and Bruhn ACL's. Surely we wouldn't. Even though i rated Hollands last year on the Aker and McCluggage scale.

UgleHagen and McDonald surely go 1 & 2 by sounds of it. Rest will be a mystery i reckon with lists varying more than usual obviously due to circs.

 

[Arr0w]

Of course it is.

Imagine this - You're holding pick #10 and the club before you starts bidding on Academy/NGA/FS players.
They bid on 5 of them and now your pick is #15. You still get the player you were always going to take, but instead of him being seen as a top ten player, he's now out of centre stage. Do you think any less of him?

Crazy right?

You are making some massive assumptions here

Let's pick it apart

A side like the Swans might hope that Campbell doesn't attract a bid before pick 3, but if the consensus was North would at pick 2, it would be a massive oversight by the Swans. In turn the Swans could approach the Cats, trade back and the Cats now have pick 3. We move back one spot for an eligible player.

 

[Gethelred]

With Murphy only having one more year to go, this kid looks like an ideal replacement.

Receives similar reviews to Sam Walsh, not the flashiest, but certainly the most consistent.

I'm down.

He looks like Ben Cousins.

 

[therubbernub]

Agree. Taranto would cost 7 this year plus next year's first at least.

So we get williams and Taranto in . Midfield fixed. Then we have a problem with which mid to trade/delist. Given the next Achilles heel is a young small forward, I would guess that tips in favour of DC and fish. Leaving SPS Dow LOB Kennedy stocker

 

[ferrisb]

Anyone willing to take a guess at

1) The players that would be >90% off the table by pick 7
2) Who the next 5-10 players might be after that point

I really like the look of Phillips for our pick, but no point getting too carried away if people think he's in category 1...

 

[ABigOlDoofus]

Anyone willing to take a guess at

1) The players that would be >90% off the table by pick 7
2) Who the next 5-10 players might be after that point

I really like the look of Phillips for our pick, but no point getting too carried away if people think he's in category 1...

JUH, McDonald and Phillips I'd have in category 1, unfortunately for us.

 

[true blue19]

If we keep pick 7, I'm really keen on either Elijah Hollands or Archie Perkins I think both will be a perfect fit.

 

[Coona Blues]

Anyone willing to take a guess at

1) The players that would be >90% off the table by pick 7
2) Who the next 5-10 players might be after that point

I really like the look of Phillips for our pick, but no point getting too carried away if people think he's in category 1...

As above JUH, McDonald, Phillips, add Holland’s and Thilthorpe, probably Grainger-Barras. Then it gets subjective Henry(brother Geelong), Campbell (Sydney), Bruhn, O’Driscoll, Reid, Cox, Perkins, Macrae, Jones(Port) getting the most regular mentions, but no consensus.

Going to be a real risk/reward period associated with the Vic kids. North either think it is a deep draft and likelihood of only a few picks being taken up, or they are banking on some quality DFA’s with likely list cuts. Intriguing period.

 

[Jimmae]

As above JUH, McDonald, Phillips, add Holland’s and Thilthorpe, probably Grainger-Barras. Then it gets subjective Henry(brother Geelong), Campbell (Sydney), Bruhn, O’Driscoll, Reid, Cox, Perkins, Macrae, Jones(Port) getting the most regular mentions, but no consensus.

Going to be a real risk/reward period associated with the Vic kids. North either think it is a deep draft and likelihood of only a few picks being taken up, or they are banking on some quality DFA’s with likely list cuts. Intriguing period.

I'd suggest with North that they've very specifically cut into their midfield role players and defensive depth. There seems to be a few KPD spoken about towards the top of this draft, and North will likely be active in trying to secure 1 or 2 by trading down the order.

We should look to chat to them so we can position ourselves to acquire Philips.

 

[Eiffel 65]

Just on the option of whether to split pick 7 or not, we need to pay close attention to the number of potential compensation picks.

Daniher, Viney, Williams, Crouch and maybe one or two others could all attract first or end of first round compensation picks, which would push us further back in the draft should we split the pick. This has nothing to do with the pool of players available to us due to academy selections, so this needs to be a strong consideration in the decision.

We have half a dozen needs, but we can attain these players over a couple of seasons. Doesn't have to all be at once. Best strategy now is to stay as high as possible and try and get the best available.

Our list is building nicely. We're after quality now, not quantity.

Have minimal changes but make them good ones.

 

[Gethelred]

Just on the option of whether to split pick 7 or not, we need to pay close attention to the number of potential compensation picks.

Daniher, Viney, Williams, Crouch and maybe one or two others could all attract first or end of first round compensation picks, which would push us further back in the draft should we split the pick. This has nothing to do with the pool of players available to us due to academy selections, so this needs to be a strong consideration in the decision.

We have half a dozen needs, but we can attain these players over a couple of seasons. Doesn't have to all be at once. Best strategy now is to stay as high as possible and try and get the best available.

Our list is building nicely. We're after quality now, not quantity.

Have minimal changes but make them good ones.

I like the idea of keeping 7, looking at the FA (Williams, Crouch now he's made a public blue that will decrease his price, Viney) and leaving it there.

I don't really like the idea of trading back here. You're not going to over overmany players you're genuinely sure about, not in this draft. Better to take a sure thing - or as close to one as you're going to get - and use FA to get players over the line.

Next year will be make or break in a lot of ways. We either have 4-8 players (SPS, Fish, Stocker, Kemp, Charlie, Polson, Philp, Ramsay, Owies, Cottrell) all stand up and have calender years, which work alongside the FA's and an improved Cripps/TDK to propel us to finals, or we have only 2-3 of those players come up and we need to reevaluate where we are going forward.

 

[Eiffel 65]

I like the idea of keeping 7, looking at the FA (Williams, Crouch now he's made a public blue that will decrease his price, Viney) and leaving it there.

I don't really like the idea of trading back here. You're not going to over overmany players you're genuinely sure about, not in this draft. Better to take a sure thing - or as close to one as you're going to get - and use FA to get players over the line.

Next year will be make or break in a lot of ways. We either have 4-8 players (SPS, Fish, Stocker, Kemp, Charlie, Polson, Philp, Ramsay, Owies, Cottrell) all stand up and have calender years, which work alongside the FA's and an improved Cripps/TDK to propel us to finals, or we have only 2-3 of those players come up and we need to reevaluate where we are going forward.

I think the first dozen prospects will be relatively consistent across recruiter's draft boards.

After that it will be like throwing darts with a blindfold. You won't know or at least can't be sure of what you're getting.

Some will argue that weight in numbers is the way to go. This is true to an extent, however, most clubs won't have the luxury of taking 5,6 or 7 players in the draft due to list cuts. We may only take two after using one pick for the Gibbons upgrade. One top end and one speculative prospect is the way to go here.

100% agree, next year is make or break for us. If we finish in the bottom 6, we may have to reevaluate the list build.

 

[ferrisb]

OK. So we all know that the draft is pot luck at the best of times, but much more so this year given the lack of VIC exposure and all-round shitness that has been 2020.

I had a bit of a play around and amalgamated 9 phantoms to get an early 'consensus' top 50...



Notes:

• 8 phantoms were 'power rankings', one was mock draft
• Some phantoms had as few as 20 selections, some had 50
• Numbers in brackets show the range (min-max) they were picked across the phantoms
• Players ranked on 1) How many phantoms they made THEN 2) Avg selection #
• * means selected in only 1 phantom
• This was a quick job, will add a bunch of improvements in time