List Mgmt. Carlton's 2020 Draft Thread

[ray8182]

Corey Durdin, Small forward, possible second round selection

Looks quick and skilful.

https://youtu.be/Bfr2fascvwo




On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Eiffel 65]

Corey Durdin, Small forward, possible second round selection

Looks quick and skilful.






On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

Definitely worth a look. Has a few similarities to Paul Puopolo.

Could potentially even be available in the 3rd and 4th rounds.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Looking at the top 25 prospects on the AFL website, a very quick look at birthdates. 15 born in the first 4 months, 2 born in the last 5 months of the year. Unless talented kids only get born early in the year then this is where great opportunities could be found. Could be some bargains in the younger less developed kids.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

31

 

[thylacine60]

wtf? this isn't a saad thread?

 

[ferrisb]

wtf? this isn't a saad thread?

Nope, this is the draaft thread....

 

[ferrisb]

Looking at the top 25 prospects on the AFL website, a very quick look at birthdates. 15 born in the first 4 months, 2 born in the last 5 months of the year. Unless talented kids only get born early in the year then this is where great opportunities could be found. Could be some bargains in the younger less developed kids.

I remember reading about it years ago (Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell?).

That sample size you quoted probably isn't big enough to draw conclusions, but there is a phenomenon to explain this.

Let's start off by assuming junior teams are selected by year of birth.

When you pick the under 7s, the kids born in Jan-Mar are (on average) bigger, taller, stronger than the Oct-Dec kids. So they get over-represented in the teams.

And then when the under 8s are picked, not only are the Jan-Mar cohort still bigger, taller, stronger, but they also have an year of extra coaching. And it follows on and on and eventually the elite kids at under 18 level are more likely to be concentrated in the Jan-Mar period. Oct-Dec kids are theoretically underdeveloped and an opportunity, but it is also likely there will be less of them in the draft pool as they have had the cards stacked against them since they were kids.

Really fascinating. And a little unfair.

This chart shows the effect quite clearly:
(Blue = junior players by month vs Red = general population by month)
I wasn't born in Jan-Mar. And I was MUCH smaller, shorter and weaker than my peers. Luckily for me, I was also much less coordinated and talented as my peers, so my month of birth had no impact....

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I remember reading about it years ago (Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell?).

That sample size you quoted probably isn't big enough to draw conclusions, but there is a phenomenon to explain this.

Let's start off by assuming junior teams are selected by year of birth.

When you pick the under 7s, the kids born in Jan-Mar are (on average) bigger, taller, stronger than the Oct-Dec kids. So they get over-represented in the teams.

And then when the under 8s are picked, not only are the Jan-Mar cohort still bigger, taller, stronger, but they also have an year of extra coaching. And it follows on and on and eventually the elite kids at under 18 level are more likely to be concentrated in the Jan-Mar period. Oct-Dec kids are theoretically underdeveloped and an opportunity, but it is also likely there will be less of them in the draft pool as they have had the cards stacked against them since they were kids.

Really fascinating. And a little unfair.

This chart shows the effect quite clearly:
(Blue = junior players by month vs Red = general population by month)View attachment 979350
I wasn't born in Jan-Mar. And I was MUCH smaller, shorter and weaker than my peers. Luckily for me, I was also much less coordinated and talented as my peers, so my month of birth had no impact....

It also happens in schooling where there have been studies showing that early birthdates show better “development” but also less likely to be bullied etc.

I think from memory it was Ajax who first started looking into this and started taking more notice of kids with later birthdates back in the early 2000’s

edit. I’ve posted this before but Harry is only 1-2 months older then Setterfield and SPS and about 13 months older then Stocker. Weitering is only a month older then Harry.

 

[Arr0w]

The more I look through the non KPP draftees this year, the more I think you could through a blanket over a dozen of the mids, apart from Campbell who is a standout

While guys like Phillips are at the pointy end, players like McCrae, Laurie etc could be just as damaging

If we keep 7, would be comfortable taking a player like Cox, if we split it to facilitate a Saad trade, there are some very solid prospects at the end of the 1st round

 

[Burgers45]

If Geelong agree to accept our Pick 7 & 27 for their 15 & 16, and * accepts pick 16 for Saad, what are some better players in the latter half of 1st round using pick 15 we would be looking at to draft?

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Caleb Poulter is one but knightmare has him at 13.

 

[Eiffel 65]

If Geelong agree to accept our Pick 7 & 27 for their 15 & 16, and * accepts pick 16 for Saad, what are some better players in the latter half of 1st round using pick 15 we would be looking at to draft?

Very hard to predict at this stage.

This draft could turn towards needs based selections very quickly.

It's hard to get excited about the draft at the moment because there's no certainty around our picks. One option we could do is approach a team like Richmond and offer 7 for a late first rounder + future first, so we may not end up selecting a player until the mid stages of the second round.

 

[ABigOlDoofus]

If Geelong agree to accept our Pick 7 & 27 for their 15 & 16, and * accepts pick 16 for Saad, what are some better players in the latter half of 1st round using pick 15 we would be looking at to draft?

Nik Cox for mine, uber-athletic Jones replacement. Can swing forward too if required.

 

[Stefchook]

Harry Walsh? The bloodlines will probably boost him up further in the draft than ruckmen normally go.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Harry Walsh? The bloodlines will probably boost him up further in the draft than ruckmen normally go.

I think he might go lower than that, I'm hoping he's there for our second pick.

 

[ferrisb]

Harry Walsh? The bloodlines will probably boost him up further in the draft than ruckmen normally go.

I've seen a lot of brothers join AFL ranks and few of them make it.

Anecdotally, it feels like less than the overall player pool success rate.

I wouldn't be paying for 'bloodlines'.

 

[Arr0w]

If Geelong agree to accept our Pick 7 & 27 for their 15 & 16, and * accepts pick 16 for Saad, what are some better players in the latter half of 1st round using pick 15 we would be looking at to draft?

Hard to peg down, as I believe there will be some left field selections in the first round

Players I would be keen on in that range, in no particular order, that could still be on the board

MaCrae, Laurie, Carroll, Perkins

 

[Jimmae]

The more I look through the non KPP draftees this year, the more I think you could through a blanket over a dozen of the mids, apart from Campbell who is a standout

While guys like Phillips are at the pointy end, players like McCrae, Laurie etc could be just as damaging

If we keep 7, would be comfortable taking a player like Cox, if we split it to facilitate a Saad trade, there are some very solid prospects at the end of the 1st round

Fair point re: the midfield depth, but from what I've seen so far, Campbell, Phillips and Hollands have a gear that the others do not.

But if we feel we can't access one of those players, we should split this pick if possible, but absolutely not to trade for Saad. There are too many players that could transform our performance in ways that Saad cannot.

 

[Stefchook]

I've seen a lot of brothers join AFL ranks and few of them make it. Anecdotally, it feels like less than the overall player pool success rate. I wouldn't be paying for 'bloodlines'.

I wish we'd paid attention to bloodlines with Brad Hill. He was picked up with a 3rd round pick.

 

[ferrisb]

I wish we'd paid attention to bloodlines with Brad Hill. He was picked up with a 3rd round pick.

Yep, and would have swapped 4 clubs by now

 

[Jimmae]

I wish we'd paid attention to bloodlines with Brad Hill. He was picked up with a 3rd round pick.

Pick 33, which in that year was the start of the second round.

That being said, our drafting that year was a total joke.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

#10-16 draft range
1. Nik Cox 200cm KPD Northern Knights
2. Zac Reid 202cm KPD Gippsland Power
3. Archie Perkins 186cm FWD/MID Sandringham Dragons

 

[Coona Blues]

#10-16 draft range
1. Nik Cox 200cm KPD Northern Knights
2. Zac Reid 202cm KPD Gippsland Power
3. Archie Perkins 186cm FWD/MID Sandringham Dragons

Yep, they are the names I am focused on in the first round

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Yep, they are the names I am focused on in the first round

Yeah noticed that Coona, of all the vision on them they’re the three i like too...
I’d really prefer we landed Oliver along with Williams and Saad, if that was too happen then we couldn’t split 7 up that would be part of the deal along with a future first with hopefully a second coming back...
If we do then it gives us a chance to trade and bring another quality kid in if that’s what we end up doing, our list still has some holes the two 200cm+ athletic quick & skilled KPD’s are definitely one we need to address they are rare and not easy to gain...
Small forwards we lack big time and another ruckman/forward needs to be addressed sometime soon, if Cox or Reid are gone Perkins is a quick clever forward who was going to more midfielder this season, I’d take Cox/Reid with #7(#9-10) anyway...

 

[Sheephead]

If Bailey Laurie lasts till our 2nd he looks a fair small fwd/mid option.

A late option I have read about is Rhyan Mansell. Potential to be a Zac Williams type.

What about Sam Fisher now. Bit like Gibbo. Kicked a few when in our twos. Won the Sandover.