List Mgmt. Carlton's 2020 Draft Thread

[Eiffel 65]

Really? So then why even mention him or his thoughts on those two players in particular?

And how much would that be?

First we're drafting him with a pick in the 30s, now he's exclusively playing VFL football in 2022.

What next?

There are far too many assumptions going on here for this to be taken seriously.

This isn't a reality.

The reality is he isn't in the AFL system yet and for all we know may never be.

I'm not drafting the guy.

I have confidence that our recruiting staff will have done their due diligence on these prospects.

They are not infallible but I'm certainly not willing to criticise them or throw out absurd childish comments like 'they're the Brendon Bolton' of recruiters if I disagreed with their approach.

Second year blues? Hardly relevant to this discussion, though I can assure you it's a lot harder for any draftee to reproduce their form in the top flight. Not exactly ground breaking stuff there.

This was in response to you referencing Knightmare's as the basis of your argument, which you've since tried to clarify. That should have been obvious, so too the reason why it's ridiculous.

I've watched full matches, not just highlights and I've mentioned Knightmare because he has good insight into draft prospects.

One can always argue what do "BigFooty armchair experts know?" That's fine, but when others in industry suggest the same, questions need to be asked.

Rowe has a lot of development to do before he's a regular AFL player, which is why drafting him in the 30's would be a strange move. He's not ready to go like a Tim Kelly

11

Tim Kelly

Age

31

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.6

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

19.9

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

7.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

4.7

5star

CL

3.6

4star

D

21.6

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.2

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.8

5star

, Tom Stewart, Liam Ryan

31

Liam Ryan

Age

29

Ht

181cm

Wt

76kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.3

3star

K

8.6

3star

HB

2.7

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

4star

G

1.3

5star

D

9.9

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.6

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

11.4

3star

K

9.0

4star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

1.8

4star

G

1.6

5star

etc. Either this draft is terrible or we're massively overrating him. It wouldn't be the first time we've done this. Stocker at #6? No one else had him that high and could easily name 20 players ahead of him in that draft. There's enough of a sample size to know that's an overinflated value.

Second year blues is completely relevant for Wehr due to his lack of exposed form at SANFL league level.

Also, I'm not confident our recruiters are calling all the shots here. Politics at play. Whether you want to accept that is another thing altogether, but drafting is never as simple selecting the highest rated players. There's always someone on the board with a connection or someone higher up who wants to throw their weight around.

 

[Stamos]

Also, I'm not confident our recruiters are calling all the shots here. Politics at play. Whether you want to accept that is another thing altogether, but drafting is never as simple selecting the highest rated players. There's always someone on the board with a connection or someone higher up who wants to throw their weight around.

lol what?

 

[Eiffel 65]

lol what?

Yep.

 

[Stamos]

Yep.

What reason would you have to think that?

 

[Eiffel 65]

What reason would you have to think that?

This isn't really new in business. It's quite common.

Specialists do the legwork and present their findings to a BOD or senior management.

Management will make the call and decisions will be made that align with the clubs aims and objectives.

If they turn around and say no more kids, we want draft mature age prospects, the selections will still align with a strategic direction. However, this doesn't necessarily mean we're selecting the best available.

 

[Jeremias]

I've watched full matches, not just highlights and I've mentioned Knightmare because he has good insight into draft prospects.

Great insights and profiles, but his rankings are to be taken with a massive grain of salt.

Has shown time and time again that his rankings (and draft grades) are pretty ordinary though he's to be commended for putting himself out there.

Simply put, if you're using them as the basis for your point of view, you should probably re-evaluate.

One can always argue what do "BigFooty armchair experts know?" That's fine, but when others in industry suggest the same, questions need to be asked.

Who would that be?

Rowe has a lot of development to do before he's a regular AFL player, which is why drafting him in the 30's would be a strange move. He's not ready to go like a Tim Kelly

11

Tim Kelly

Age

31

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.6

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

19.9

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

7.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

4.7

5star

CL

3.6

4star

D

21.6

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.2

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.8

5star

, Tom Stewart, Liam Ryan

31

Liam Ryan

Age

29

Ht

181cm

Wt

76kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.3

3star

K

8.6

3star

HB

2.7

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

4star

G

1.3

5star

D

9.9

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.6

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

11.4

3star

K

9.0

4star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

1.8

4star

G

1.6

5star

etc. Either this draft is terrible or we're massively overrating him. It wouldn't be the first time we've done this. Stocker at #6? No one else had him that high and could easily name 20 players ahead of him in that draft. There's enough of a sample size to know that's an overinflated value.

First it was second year blues, now Stocker. What else are you going to bring to the discussion that holds absolutely no relevance?

Whilst on Stocker though, we've been through this before. You have absolutely no idea where any club other than Carlton rated him, please don't try and pretend otherwise.

Second year blues is completely relevant for Wehr due to his lack of exposed form at SANFL league level.

No, it's completely irrelevant and just another example of you trying to find something to be critical of for the sake of it.

He's not even in the system yet, let's perhaps wait until he is before we start lamenting the fact that he might encounter second year blues in 2022.

Also, I'm not confident our recruiters are calling all the shots here. Politics at play. Whether you want to accept that is another thing altogether, but drafting is never as simple selecting the highest rated players. There's always someone on the board with a connection or someone higher up who wants to throw their weight around.

OK then, this tells us pretty much everything we need to know.

Really strange stuff.

 

[HARKER]

This isn't really new in business. It's quite common.

Specialists do the legwork and present their findings to a BOD or senior management.

Management will make the call and decisions will be made that align with the clubs aims and objectives.

If they turn around and say no more kids, we want draft mature age prospects, the selections will still align with a strategic direction. However, this doesn't necessarily mean we're selecting the best available.

I know we had the Silvagni mess, but we're actually better than that now....not perfect, but certainly better
Having not had a dedicated List Manager prior to 2015, we left the door open for everyone sticking their noses into drafting.

List Managers don't get everything their own way a any cost either. There always has to be some checks and balances in place.

 

[Stamos]

This isn't really new in business. It's quite common.

Specialists do the legwork and present their findings to a BOD or senior management.

Management will make the call and decisions will be made that align with the clubs aims and objectives.

If they turn around and say no more kids, we want draft mature age prospects, the selections will still align with a strategic direction. However, this doesn't necessarily mean we're selecting the best available.

Where has there been any suggestion that this is happening at Carlton? What are your sources? Or is just the tinfoil hat?

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Bar the interest in Poulter (and I'm sceptical anything will come of that), it makes you wonder why we were so quick to extinguish next year's third rounder.

 

[HARKER]

Bar the interest in Poulter (and I'm sceptical anything will come of that), it makes you wonder why we were so quick to extinguish next year's third rounder.

We didn't 'extinguish' it. We utilised it.

Let's allow the draft to play out and see wha we get.
I'd be very happy should the right targets look anywhere near as good as Honey did via training last year.

 

[Eiffel 65]

Where has there been any suggestion that this is happening at Carlton? What are your sources? Or is just the tinfoil hat?

It happens everywhere. This isn't just in reference to Carlton.

 

[TerryWallet]

The day before the draft and i have very little idea what is going on with every club. It's great. Tomorrow should be fun.

I remember the days when Nat Southby would tweet our whole draft a week before draft day lol.

The implementation of live trading has made the art of phantom drafting pretty irrelevant, which in itself is a shame as i used to enjoy that period between trade closing and draft night. But the old rules made draft night itself pretty boring and predictable.

But now here we are a day before the draft and Twomey, Balmer, Beveridge and co have little idea what is happening, let alone us. It makes draft day actually intriguing and fun. Anything can happen because of live trading, and therefore clubs are incentivised to keep their intentions to themselves.

 

[Stamos]

It happens everywhere. This isn't just in reference to Carlton.

You think across the AFL, senior management overrule list management when it comes to who to draft?

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Second year blues seems an odd concern for Wehr...bloke was playing bush footy twelve months ago, I'd be far more interested in his scope for development in an AFL environment

 

[Eiffel 65]

I know we had the Silvagni mess, but we're actually better than that now....not perfect, but certainly better
Having not had a dedicated List Manager prior to 2015, we left the door open for everyone sticking their noses into drafting.

List Managers don't get everything their own way a any cost either. There always has to be some checks and balances in place.

You think across the AFL, senior management overrule list management when it comes to who to draft?

What Harker said.

 

[Stamos]

What Harker said.

Sure that could apply to trading and strategy, but drafting? It isn't 2009.

 

[Eiffel 65]

Second year blues seems an odd concern for Wehr...bloke was playing bush footy twelve months ago, I'd be far more interested in his scope for development in an AFL environment

Yes, but you also need to be cautious of a flash in the pan season.

It comes down to risk vs reward. Is the risk of a lack of exposed form at SANFL league worth his potential upside for the cost of a 2nd round selection?

 

[La Dispute]

Yes, but you also need to be cautious of a flash in the pan season.

It comes down to risk vs reward. Is the risk of a lack of exposed form at SANFL league worth his potential upside for the cost of a 2nd round selection?

Pretty sure Isaac Smith

7

Isaac Smith

Age

37

Ht

188cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

8.4

5star

M

5.5

5star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.7

4star

D

19.4

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.3

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.5

3star

CL

1.3

4star

D

19.2

5star

K

10.6

4star

HB

8.6

5star

M

7.6

5star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.6

3star

only played a single season (might have even been a short stretch of games?) at Ballarat after coming in from Reddan.

What you're saying has plenty of validity, but TAC Cup level footballers have had far less exposure this year, which is why Wehr might be a reasonable target in the 40's, which is where our Pick 38 is going to end up.

I wouldn't be surprised if we're actually looking to take him at 78, if available, and the reporting on him is only because there's some known interest from our end. We have no idea how other recruiters rate him, but state leaguers historically go later in the draft, so we'd have some chance of getting him at a later pick. We might also end up downgrading our second pick for a couple of later picks to guarantee we grab him but not overspend in the process.

His overall profile is good though. He actually has quite a few of Saad's qualities (but not in equal measure); pace, long-range kick, agility and would have some reasonable players to help mould his game on at Carlton.

 

[THE_GUN]

Future second and 38 for a pick round 15-20 sounds about right to me. Probably gets some interest too.

Carltons future 2nd will probably be around pick #30 & this years #38 is almost a 3rd. Sorry but no chance in the world do you get a pick #15-#20 for these 2 picks. the best i see that getting is St Kilda's 1st this year or maybe 1 of adelaide 22/23 if they need points for next year

If it was me, I would target a KPF/ruck, a KPD, a crumbing forward with scope to play up the ground

Then, add a mature age KPD/swingman, Marsh fits that bill

#31 - Isiah Winder
#38 - Shannon Neale

would be a sensational result for what you mentioned

 

[GT619]

Has Angwin and Rowe to us. Two very strange phantoms

AFL Draft 2020: Final phantom draft, mock draft, every draft pick predicted, analysis, Matt Balmer, draft order, bids, best players | FOX SPORTS

<b><a href="https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-draft-2020-live-afl-draft-live-updates-order-and-results-draft-picks-video-how-to-watch-live-blog/news-story/357e8c8801791ad51c17d641275f6e14" target="_blank">FOLLOW THE AFL DRAFT LIVE HERE</a> AND <a...

coupler.foxsports.com.au

 

[swuzzlebubble]

They're reportedly trying to swap their first for a future first, so I don't think they'll be offloading their future first.

Depends if they specifically want an extra pick or more generally want to transfer value to next year eg via upgrades.

 

[Stamos]

Two very strange phantoms

It's a very strange/tough year.

I think the bigger takeaway is us taking only 2 picks, and the whole draft being only 56 picks.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I haven’t really followed draft prospects in the past but one common trend is that top end draft picks tend to be born in the first half of the year. As we only have picks in the 30’s selecting the best available player born in the second half of the year might be a fantastic option to get a solid player with huge upside.

Very interesting is this phenomenon. Malcolm Gladwell writes about it in his book 'Outliers' which is an amazing read that I recommend all read. What he identifies is that in professional sports there is generally a calendar window where the most successful players come from. This is often those with birthdays early in the representative year - as when they are growing up, they can be up to a year older (and therefore more physically developed) than those they are competing against. Over time they begin to win representative positions and have access to additional training, more tuition and coaching. From there it snowballs, they continue to get better as they work more. Eventually they hit the pros and theyre drafted and from there get even more training and go on to become superstars.

So while the thinking may be take a younger kid because they have more development, it's no guarantee that they'll be better than the older kid and that they're merely 6 months behind in development, it could be that they havent had the same development of the older kid thus far and might never be able to catch up.

This is the reason why I will be planning the birth of my future children around representative football age qualification windows

 

[Aphrodite]

Cal Twomey's 2020 Phantom Draft

Cal Twomey predicts who each club will take in the 2020 draft.

www.carltonfc.com.au

 

[Aphrodite]

What's in a draft pick? | Picks Nos.31 and 38

We look at the history and statistics behind picks Nos.31 and 38.

www.carltonfc.com.au