Cats and the Bye - Some Numbers

Herne Hill Hammer

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Alright, I've been banging on about this for 2 or 3 years so I thought it time I have a bit of a look at it. I noticed last night that the media have really picked up on it now.

One thing I will correct though, is that as far as h&a goes, what I thought, and what the media were telling everyone last night was incorrect.

In 2014, there was a bye and a split round. The Cats won the game after the split round. It's still not pretty reading though.

In the period 2011 until now, here is every other club's record coming off a bye.

Hawthorn 7/1

West Coast Eagles 6/3

Adelaide 5/3

Fremantle 5/3

St Kilda 4/5

Brisbane 3/6

Carlton 3/6

Collingwood 3/5

Essendon 3/5

Melbourne 3/6

North Melbourne 3/5

Port Adelaide 3/6

Richmond 3/5

Sydney 3/6

Western Bulldogs 3/6

Geelong 2/7

Gold Coast 1/8

GWS 0/6

Here are Geelong specific games with a little extra detail.

2011 v North @ Kardinia round 7, we were 2nd undefeated at that stage, North were 4th from the bottom with one win. Geelong 19.13 127 d North 9.7 61.

North played the week before and beat Port Adelaide by 10 goals.

Follow that game up by inflicted Collingwood’s first loss of the season by 3 points.

2011 v Sydney @ Kardinia round 23, we were 2nd, 7 1/2 wins clear of Sydney who were 7th. Geelong 12.14 86 lost to Sydney 15.9 99. Scores were close all game.

Sydney played the week before and beat St Kilda by 15 points. They had 15 more scoring shots.

Followed up the loss by beating the Pies by 96 points.

Then had a 31 point QF win over the Hawks, had a week off and easily accounted for a cooked WCE in the PF. Very strong GF win the following week.

At the end of the h&a :

North finished 10th with 10 wins and a percentage of 101.2%.

Sydney finished 7th with 12 wins and a draw and a percentage of 109.3%. They lost in a semi-final to Hawthorn by 36 points.

Geelong finished 2nd with 19 wins and a percentage of 157.4%. Premiers.


2012 v Sydney @ SCG round 13, we were 7th, they were 4th, 1 game ahead with a much superior percentage. Sydney 12.8 80 d Geelong 11.8 74. Sydney 7.0 to Geelong 1.1 in the first quarter.

Sydney had the bye the same week as Geelong.

Followed up the loss with 38 point win over Port Adelaide at Kardinia.

In the final round of the h&a, Geelong beat Sydney by 34 points at the Cattery. It dropped the Swans from 2nd to 3rd on the ladder and meant that they had to travel to Adelaide in the first week of finals. Sydney lost 3 of their last 4 h&a matches, they also had losses to Hawthorn and Collingwood.

At the end of the h&a :

Sydney finished 3rd with 16 wins and a percentage of 140.6%

Geelong finished 6th with 15 wins and a percentage of 117.1%.

Sydney would go on to be premiers, Geelong were bundled out by Freo in the first week at the MCG.


2013 v Brisbane @ GABBA round 13, we were 2nd with 10 wins, they were 4th last with 3 wins. Brisbane 15.13 103 d Geelong 14.14 98. McGrath's 200th. Geelong pretty comfortably in front all day. Brisbane kick 8.5 to 1.4 in the last with McGrath kicking the winner.

Brisbane played the week before and lost to Freo by 40 points @ Subiaco.

Followed up the loss with a 41 point win over Freo @ Kardinia.

At the end of the h&a :

Brisbane finished 12th with 10 wins and a percentage of 89.6%.

Geelong finished 2nd with 18 wins and a percentage of 135.6%

Played Freo at Kardinia first week of finals and lost. Beat Port the following week at the MCG and then lost PF to eventual premiers Hawthorn by 5 points.


2014 v Fremantle @ Subiaco round 9, we were 3rd with 6 wins, Freo were 8th with 4 wins. Fremantle 13.18 96 d Geelong 9.10 64. (I was in a sports bar in Bali full of Freo supporters, I left at 1/4 time, campaigners) Freo kicked 5.3 to 0.3 in the first quarter.

Freo played the week before, losing to Port in Adelaide by 18 pts.

Followed up the loss with a 20 point win over North at Docklands.

2014 v North @ Docklands round 19, we were 3rd with 13 wins, North were 6th with 10 wins. Geelong 16.15 111 d North 10.19 79. This is a win for the Cats, don't know why I haven't picked it up before. We played round 18 that year on 19 Jul v GWS and played round 19 on 02 Aug. That's a 14 day break. Geelong pretty comfortable after a close first quarter.

Was a split round.

North played the same weekend as Geelong in the first half of the split round. They lost to Carlton by 23 points at Docklands.

Both sides had a week off.

Followed up that game with a 2pt win over Freo at Kardinia. It was a battle for 3rd spot on the ladder. Freo had a much superior percentage.

At the end of the h&a :

Fremantle finished 4th with 16 wins and a percentage of 130.4%.

North finished 6th with 14 wins and a percentage of 117.0%.

Geelong finished 3rd with 17 wins and a percentage of 113.8%.

Geelong and Freo both out in straight sets. North making up the numbers get through to a prelim.

Percentages don’t lie. Geelong were cooked this season and only made top four on reputation with a lot of close wins. The competition was still settling down again after the compromised drafts. Apart from a spirited Port that season, there were really no other up and coming clubs in the 8. (would prove to be a false dawn for Port)


2015 v v Adelaide abandoned. Next week against North, Cats sitting 10th, North 11th. North 18.12 120 d Geelong 11.13 79.

Geelong and North both had the bye in round 13. North came back from the bye and got beaten by 55 points by Gold Coast @ Carrara.

Geelong’s game was abandoned so they had an extra week off. Geelong lost to North. Even first quarter, North kicked 8.3 to 1.5 in the second.

Followed up the loss with an 8 point win over the Dogs @ Kardinia.

At the end of the h&a :

North finished 8th with 13 wins and a percentage of 106.5%.

Geelong finished 10th with 11 wins and a draw and a percentage of 101.1%.

North making up the numbers again, get through to another prelim.


2016 v Sydney @ Kardinia round 16, both teams on 10 wins sitting 2nd and 4th respectively. Geelong 9.6 60 lost to Sydney 15.8 98. No big starts or surges, Sydney just pull out a goal or 2 each quarter.

Both Sydney and WB had the bye in round 14 and played each other up in Sydney in round 15. WB won by 4 points.

Geelong had the round 15 bye.

Followed up the loss with a 17 point win over Freo @ Subiaco.

2016 v Hawthorn @ MCG, Qualifying Final, Geelong 12.13 85 d Hawthorn 12.11 83.

Hawthorn were easily the worst side in the top 4 with a percentage around 25% less than the other 3 top 4 sides. Geelong fell over the line after Smith missed. Close all night.

2016 v Sydney @ MCG, Preliminary Final, Geelong 8.12 60 lost to Sydney 15.7 97.

Sydney played the week before and beat Adelaide by 36 points. Sydney kicked 7.2 to 0.5 in the first quarter.


2017 v WCE @ Subiaco round 13, lost to WCE @ Subiaco. WCE kick 7.9 to 2.3 in the first half.

Both sides had the bye the week before.

In the same period, first up after a 5 or 6 month break before the first round, Geelong have won 5 and lost 2, generally against good opposition and have only had one of those games at Kardinia Park.

2011 d St Kilda by a point @ MCG
2012 lost to Freo by 4pts @ Subiaco
2013 d Hawthorn by 7pts @ MCG
2014 d Adelaide by 38pts @ Kardinia
2015 lost to Hawthorn by 62pts @ MCG
2016 d Hawthorn by 30pts @ MCG
2017 d Freo by 42pts @ Subiaco

It seems they can get up after a long layoff, but not after a week.

Geelong have not once lost the 2nd game after the bye in this period.

I'm with Vdubs on this one, it just seems to kill our momentum. I don't think last night will do any harm to Geelong for the rest of the season.

Yes Geelong have played good opposition in their games after the bye, but Geelong have been one of the better teams for most of that period so you'd think they'd win more than 2 of the h&a games.

Geelong's two wins have both been against North, once at Kardinia and once at Docklands.

The losses have been twice at Kardinia to Sydney and all the rest have been at the SCG, GABBA and Subiaco.

IMHO, for Geelong to be a chance in September. They either need to finish top 4 with the double chance and lose the first week or finish 5-8 and hope they get the worst side in the first week.
 

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you pick one

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Do we lose momentum or touch? we have probable been below par with the competition executing by hand and foot to start with the last few years and any slight drop off in those disciplines post bye will quickly see you under score board pressure and chasing tail all day/night.
 

Herne Hill Hammer

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Whatever we do in bye rounds? Reverse it. Maybe make everyone but Danger, Selwood and those carrying injuries play in the twos.
I actually couldn't believe last night when Lingy was talking to Mackie before the game. He mentioned their record of coming off a bye and asked him if they'd done anything differently this time around. Mack said no, nothing different.

I found that disappointing.

I couldn't get my WCE supporting work colleagues to take me on with a bet even after I pointed out to them Geelong's **** post bye record. I actually thought the Cats would get up for this one because, frankly I think WCE are not much chop, especially with 2 of their 3 most influential players in NicNat and Kennedy missing.

They were all texting, giving me a bit of a ribbing. I just told them they obviously hate free beer. A carton each and they wouldn't have a go.
 

romeohwho

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Do we lose momentum or touch? we have probable been below par with the competition executing by hand and foot to start with the last few years and any slight drop off in those disciplines post bye will quickly see you under score board pressure and chasing tail all day/night.
Good question. Thought a lot of the players were slightly out of touch last night-Stewart almost made mores blues/fumbles for example, in that one game than he has maybe made all year! Everyone just missing handballs. Decision making just slightly off. Just missing targets-not sharp like the last few weeks.
 

Herne Hill Hammer

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Do we lose momentum or touch? we have probable been below par with the competition executing by hand and foot to start with the last few years and any slight drop off in those disciplines post bye will quickly see you under score board pressure and chasing tail all day/night.
I reckon touch is a better way to put it. Go back even further, I know there's only 2 players left now, but they almost blew 2007 in the preliminary final.

You win a qualifying final by 106 points, have a week off and then almost don't make it to a grand final that you win by 119 points. If it wasn't for Ottens and Ablett in that last quarter, I don't think the Cats would have even made it. Collingwood finished the h&a 5 wins and over 50% behind.
 

Tony Barber

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I actually couldn't believe last night when Lingy was talking to Mackie before the game. He mentioned their record of coming off a bye and asked him if they'd done anything differently this time around. Mack said no, nothing different.

I found that disappointing.
Mackie didn't say that.
He pretty much dodged the question.
 

Tony Barber

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I was certain he did, that's why I posted it too in the post mortem thread.
Yeah I saw that. I agree there certainly wasn't a "yeah we flew a day earlier / had one harder session"
I just got the impression the club thinks it's just one of those things.
 

winty

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I reckon touch is a better way to put it. Go back even further, I know there's only 2 players left now, but they almost blew 2007 in the preliminary final.

You win a qualifying final by 106 points, have a week off and then almost don't make it to a grand final that you win by 119 points. If it wasn't for Ottens and Ablett in that last quarter, I don't think the Cats would have even made it. Collingwood finished the h&a 5 wins and over 50% behind.
Stokesy's 3 goals in the first quarter of the '07 Prelim were pretty important too. Agree with everything else you said though.
 

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catempire

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One thing I notice is that over the bye weekend all of the big guns head to nice warm parts of Australia and post to social media lying by the pool, at the beach, etc. Obviously that's what the CBA entitles them to do but if I was in the leadership group next year I'd be doing a "voluntary" training/bonding weekend in Geelong.
 

Willo_

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Fantastically put together stuff :thumbsu:

So the general feel for me, and the numbers back it up is that we get burnt early most games after the bye.

The Lions game I'll disregard as we were the better side 75% of the game and just fell asleep in the last, and the Lions got on a roll bombing goal after goal from outside 50.

But for the most part we are sluggish, is it touch? Attitude? Hard to think that it can't be attitude really when blokes show up and play like they are still on holidays.
Maybe the break up of routine is a big thing? They are basically machines in a sense, life planned and programmed to the minute... maybe the days off and breaking up the recovery/review/reload week by week throws them off.
Maybe instead of a week off the players should have to be back by Thursday, full match simulation Friday/Saturday which gets filmed and reviewed like a game to snap them back into the routine again?
 

Cataholic

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Fantastically put together stuff :thumbsu:

So the general feel for me, and the numbers back it up is that we get burnt early most games after the bye.

The Lions game I'll disregard as we were the better side 75% of the game and just fell asleep in the last, and the Lions got on a roll bombing goal after goal from outside 50.

But for the most part we are sluggish, is it touch? Attitude? Hard to think that it can't be attitude really when blokes show up and play like they are still on holidays.
Maybe the break up of routine is a big thing? They are basically machines in a sense, life planned and programmed to the minute... maybe the days off and breaking up the recovery/review/reload week by week throws them off.
Maybe instead of a week off the players should have to be back by Thursday, full match simulation Friday/Saturday which gets filmed and reviewed like a game to snap them back into the routine again?
Got to be attitude.

Hear you re: routine, but surely they're so mindful of it now that it'd be front and foremost in their minds and preparation.......which brings me back to attitude
 

winty

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Was having a look at something else about games around the byes before. I remember the game against Adelaide a fortnight ago, and remember being about 7-8 goals up before putting the cue in the rack, so I thought I'd look at games before previous byes as well to see if there was a pattern. Here's what I found:

Round 21, 2011: Lead Adelaide by 24 points early in the last quarter. Adelaide kicked 4.3 to 2.2 for the rest of the game. Geelong win by 11 points.
Round 11, 2012: Lead Carlton by 15 points midway through the last quarter, 13.11 to 10.14. Carlton pepper the goals in the last 15 minutes, but kick a wayward 1.5 to 1.2, and Geelong end up winning by 12 points.
Round 11, 2013: A young GWS side stick with Geelong for most of the game, before Geelong kick away in the last term and kick 8.5 to 1.0 and win by 59 points after being 12 points up at 3/4 time.
Round 7, 2014: Lead Richmond by 19 points halfway through the last quarter. Richmond kick 3.0 to 0.4 in the last 15 minutes and Geelong sneak away with a 5 point win.
Round 12, 2015: Trail Melbourne by 11 points at 3/4 time. Melbourne kick 5.1 to 2.6 in the last quarter to win by 24 points.
Round 14, 2016: Lead St.Kilda by 9 points with 10 minutes remaining in the last quarter. St.Kilda kick the last 2 goals of the game and win by 3 points.
Round 11, 2017: Lead Adelaide by 47 points 19 minutes into the 3rd quarter. Are outscored 5.6 to 1.5 for the rest of the game and win by 22 points.

The GWS game in 2013 aside, it seems not only do we struggle after the bye, but we tend to shift focus to the week off late in games prior to the bye too.
 

Footy_Fan2007

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Do we lose momentum or touch? we have probable been below par with the competition executing by hand and foot to start with the last few years and any slight drop off in those disciplines post bye will quickly see you under score board pressure and chasing tail all day/night.
Touch. The fumbling, clangers and skill errors seem to go up after a bye. Not enough training on the basics I think. Just missing Simple handballs is alarming.
 

Cataholic

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What do you blokes mean by attitude? I didn't see that as a problem at all last night,thought the endeavour was there but the skill and execution was the missing link.
Attitude 'is the way a person views something, or behaves toward it'

Last night we were lazy in the first half, waited for someone else to do the heavy lifting, and didn't work hard.

Poor behaviour.

Exacerbated by poor skills.
 

you pick one

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Attitude 'is the way a person views something, or behaves toward it'

Last night we were lazy in the first half, waited for someone else to do the heavy lifting, and didn't work hard.

Poor behaviour.

Exacerbated by poor skills.
We got smashed in the middle of the ground and off half back especially in the first half,partly due the way WC set up and partly because we were out worked around the contest,I didn't think it was because we were lazy I just thought they were better than us on the night.
 

Cataholic

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We got smashed in the middle of the ground and off half back especially in the first half,partly due the way WC set up and partly because we were out worked around the contest,I didn't think it was because we were lazy I just thought they were better than us on the night.
Better yes, but still think some of their superiority was gifted to them by an element of laziness on our behalf.

And our 'skills' were deplorable.
 

Mad_Hatter

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Our intent was fine last night, we were just beaten badly around the ball in the first half.
I'm not sure what the answer it, apparently they have tried a light week, a hard week, match simulation on the weekend to nothing on the weekend.
It does seem like "one of those things" but I'd put it down to mindset and that the players as a collective need to be "switched on" mentally to perform, something they find difficult to do each and every week and exasperated by the mental relief of the bye weekend.
IMO it goes hand in hand with dropping games against lesser teams and not turning up for a half in some games. Complacency.
 

Goggin Our Best

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Our intent was fine last night, we were just beaten badly around the ball in the first half.
I'm not sure what the answer it, apparently they have tried a light week, a hard week, match simulation on the weekend to nothing on the weekend.
It does seem like "one of those things" but I'd put it down to mindset and that the players as a collective need to be "switched on" mentally to perform, something they find difficult to do each and every week and exasperated by the mental relief of the bye weekend.
IMO it goes hand in hand with dropping games against lesser teams and not turning up for a half in some games. Complacency.
Putting the bye to one side - all these games where Geelong get jumped - the Collingwood losses past 2 years - where they pile the goals on early - the Essendon loss this year was shocking - 9 goals to 3 at half time - the Richmond game last year - 6 goals down at 3 qtr time - theres been about dozen games - where Geelong are absolutely slaughtered in the 1st half - to the teams credit they do come back hard in the 2nd half

Leigh Mathews thoughts on it - a year or 2 back - he said Geelong aernt quick - and get a bit exposed - he then added that in the 2nd half - where the pace goes out of the game a bit - Geelong are alot more comfortable - and i think that is 100% correct

At the moment watching Geelong play in a big game - where there will be alot of pressue ( and away from KP ) the 1st halves are a bit of a nightmare to watch - just seeing them taken to pieces - you just praying the opposition team will be a bit inaccurate .

But you have to give Geelong credit how they fight out the games - if they could just be around level at half time they would never lose a game .
 
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