Cats and the Bye - Some Numbers

Stab Pass

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There is one little factor people aren't looking at. Last I looked something like 7 out of 8 Geelong games post bye were away games against interstate teams. Probably 8 out of 9 given we are off to Port in two weeks. In the same period the Swans were 7 of 8 at home post bye and surprise, surprise this year are at home post bye. There is no way that pattern is by chance.
 

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Overhang

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There is one little factor people aren't looking at. Last I looked something like 7 out of 8 Geelong games post bye were away games against interstate teams. Probably 8 out of 9 given we are off to Port in two weeks. In the same period the Swans were 7 of 8 at home post bye and surprise, surprise this year are at home post bye. There is no way that pattern is by chance.
Spot on, don't get me wrong our record is terrible after the bye and we should have won a couple of these but at this point the AFL aren't making it easy to get the monkey off the back. Also the 1 out of the 8 at home was against the Swans who we know play KP really well.
 

catempire

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One thing I notice is that over the bye weekend all of the big guns head to nice warm parts of Australia and post to social media lying by the pool, at the beach, etc. Obviously that's what the CBA entitles them to do but if I was in the leadership group next year I'd be doing a "voluntary" training/bonding weekend in Geelong.
Spoiler alert: they’re by the pool in Noosa and Port Douglas again.
 

cats_09

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One thing I notice is that over the bye weekend all of the big guns head to nice warm parts of Australia and post to social media lying by the pool, at the beach, etc. Obviously that's what the CBA entitles them to do but if I was in the leadership group next year I'd be doing a "voluntary" training/bonding weekend in Geelong.
The "misfits" did that last week prior to the Richmond game - Henderson hosted the defenders in a gathering/bonding session at his house

No mention if the forwards or midfield groups have done similar over recent weeks or plan to do something similar once all are back in Geelong
 

Herne Hill Hammer

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Since I put the numbers up in the thread 2 years ago, we have lost 3 more games coming off a bye.

2017 lost to Richmond in QF
2018 lost to Footscray in rd 15
2018 lost to Melbourne in EF.

That's makes us 2 / 10.

We are still yet to lose the 2nd game after a bye.
 

Herne Hill Hammer

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Herne Hill Hammer do you include Round 1s in your analysis? Most of them are technically off of a bye after the JLT.
I haven't included them, but I did put them up in the OP and our record in first rounds in the same time period now stands at 7 / 2

2011 d St Kilda by a point @ MCG
2012 lost to Freo by 4pts @ Subiaco
2013 d Hawthorn by 7pts @ MCG
2014 d Adelaide by 38pts @ Kardinia

2015 lost to Hawthorn by 62pts @ MCG
2016 d Hawthorn by 30pts @ MCG
2017 d Freo by 42pts @ Subiaco
2018 d Melbourne by 3 points @ MCG
2019 d Collingwood by 7 points @ MCG
 

barmy44

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I find it fascinating that Rd1, the bye hasn't been of much concern, but all others have been.
it is possible - and i would say likely - that it is random noise, and the 'pattern' is imposed by our brains as a way of ordering the random noise. this is what humans do.

since and including 2011, we are 8W-3L in the week before the bye - is scott and the team just really good at preparing for the week before the bye? maybe, but more likely its just how results have fallen since then.

since and including 2011, we are 2W-9L in the week after the bye - is scott and the team just really bad at preparing for the week after the bye? maybe, but more likely its just how results have fallen since then.

since and including 2011, we are 10W-0L in the week following the week following the bye - is scott and the team just really good at preparing for the week following the week following the bye? maybe, but more likely its just how results have fallen since then.

humans tend to wildly over-exaggerate significance in random numbers. the randomness is exaggerated in small sample sizes. especially small sample sizes that happen once, occasionally twice, each year (and in 2011, three times).

if the 2-9 indicates a consistent failure of preparation in post-bye games, the 10-0 is equally significant in indicating perfection of approach in post-post-bye games. but thats getting a bit weird and nebulous.

youd likely just say the 10-0 in that specific circumstance is just random chance over those years. to assume it means geelong somehow prepare flawlessly for games after games after byes stretches credulity.

you can always stack up a stretch of lopsided outcomes, and identify a unique event near to them, and attach the significance of one to the other.

and of course, as youve identified, and has been stated elsewhere, if scott cannot coach or prepare a team properly after not playing the week before, youd see a similar pattern in round 1 games. but you dont.

its similar to collingwoods 'can only win GFs in october in eddies lifetime' thing. very quirky, but definitely does not indicate there is something inherent in the club and its approach to GFs that allow them to always succeed in october, but always fail in september, while eddie mcguire is alive.
 

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Geelong_Sicko

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The "misfits" did that last week prior to the Richmond game - Henderson hosted the defenders in a gathering/bonding session at his house

No mention if the forwards or midfield groups have done similar over recent weeks or plan to do something similar once all are back in Geelong
I have nothing to add regarding what the mids or forwards might do, but although it's been around a wee while now I still really dig our backs being called 'The Misfits'.

It's way cool:thumbsu:
 

King Cold

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4-11 after a bye under Chris Scott if we're including finals.
2-10 after a bye in the 2012-2018 years when we fell short.
2-1 after a bye in our 2011 premiership year.

We have 3 byes this year and I'm quietly confident our record the week after our byes this year will be 3-0.
This team is a premiership team in the 2011 mould, not like the 2012-2018 teams which were finals teams but never premiership quality sides.
 

CatToTheFuture

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it is possible - and i would say likely - that it is random noise, and the 'pattern' is imposed by our brains as a way of ordering the random noise. this is what humans do.

since and including 2011, we are 8W-3L in the week before the bye - is scott and the team just really good at preparing for the week before the bye? maybe, but more likely its just how results have fallen since then.

since and including 2011, we are 2W-9L in the week after the bye - is scott and the team just really bad at preparing for the week after the bye? maybe, but more likely its just how results have fallen since then.

since and including 2011, we are 10W-0L in the week following the week following the bye - is scott and the team just really good at preparing for the week following the week following the bye? maybe, but more likely its just how results have fallen since then.

humans tend to wildly over-exaggerate significance in random numbers. the randomness is exaggerated in small sample sizes. especially small sample sizes that happen once, occasionally twice, each year (and in 2011, three times).

if the 2-9 indicates a consistent failure of preparation in post-bye games, the 10-0 is equally significant in indicating perfection of approach in post-post-bye games. but thats getting a bit weird and nebulous.

youd likely just say the 10-0 in that specific circumstance is just random chance over those years. to assume it means geelong somehow prepare flawlessly for games after games after byes stretches credulity.

you can always stack up a stretch of lopsided outcomes, and identify a unique event near to them, and attach the significance of one to the other.

and of course, as youve identified, and has been stated elsewhere, if scott cannot coach or prepare a team properly after not playing the week before, youd see a similar pattern in round 1 games. but you dont.

its similar to collingwoods 'can only win GFs in october in eddies lifetime' thing. very quirky, but definitely does not indicate there is something inherent in the club and its approach to GFs that allow them to always succeed in october, but always fail in september, while eddie mcguire is alive.
Correct me if I'm wrong here but Chris Scott has coached 202 games at a 70% win rate. If we had only ever seen the 11 post bye games and we estimated his performance as a coach based on his 18% win rate there then a statistician would be 90% confident that his win loss for the full 202 games would fall within 1% and 43% which doesn't match reality.

The kicker here is that we've selected non-randomly. We've introduced selection bias. If we were going to be 90% certain that the results of this selection were random chance then we'd expect a minimum 5 wins from an 11 game sample. A statistician would I think be 90% certain we're selecting from a different subset when looking at post bye games.

Fell free to check my maths, it's been a long time since I studied confidence intervals.

Edit: would like to add that I'm confident we win this match. As much as the post bye hoodoo is a different subset of Scott's coaching career, so is the 2019 cats side. Rules are out the window this year I think
 

BotsMaster

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With the pre-season bye (if you can really call it that) and the post-season bye I would have thought the players were very unlikely to travel away and were more likely preparing for the season ahead and finals respectively. Which would explain why the records are better.

Whereas with the mid-season bye the players tend to travel away, wind down and possibly lose focus. Which seems to require a game to get back into the swing of things.
 

Nickoo

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Correct me if I'm wrong here but Chris Scott has coached 202 games at a 70% win rate. If we had only ever seen the 11 post bye games and we estimated his performance as a coach based on his 18% win rate there then a statistician would be 90% confident that his win loss for the full 202 games would fall within 1% and 43% which doesn't match reality.

The kicker here is that we've selected non-randomly. We've introduced selection bias. If we were going to be 90% certain that the results of this selection were random chance then we'd expect a minimum 5 wins from an 11 game sample. A statistician would I think be 90% certain we're selecting from a different subset when looking at post bye games.

Fell free to check my maths, it's been a long time since I studied confidence intervals.

Edit: would like to add that I'm confident we win this match. As much as the post bye hoodoo is a different subset of Scott's coaching career, so is the 2019 cats side. Rules are out the window this year I think
We might win this sat but am betting we lose that game at Optus against Freo. They are emerging as the team to jump out of the box and win à la the last 3 years.


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Nickoo

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With the pre-season bye (if you can really call it that) and the post-season bye I would have thought the players were very unlikely to travel away and were more likely preparing for the season ahead and finals respectively. Which would explain why the records are better.

Whereas with the mid-season bye the players tend to travel away, wind down and possibly lose focus. Which seems to require a game to get back into the swing of things.
Less of them went away this year apparently.


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Drunkcat

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4-11 after a bye under Chris Scott if we're including finals.
2-10 after a bye in the 2012-2018 years when we fell short.
2-1 after a bye in our 2011 premiership year.

We have 3 byes this year and I'm quietly confident our record the week after our byes this year will be 3-0.
This team is a premiership team in the 2011 mould, not like the 2012-2018 teams which were finals teams but never premiership quality sides.
Good post we had an average side in them years with crap bottom 6 players
 

Max Milburn

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Posted this in the pre-game thread.
When you see the ins and outs we look a lot stronger than the team that lost post-bye last year:

Players who didn't play in our post-bye loss last year: Rohan, Ratugolea, Miers, Atkins, O'Connor
Players who played in our post-bye loss, but won: Dahlhaus
Players who played in our post-bye loss last year, but (probably*) won't be playing this Saturday: Murdoch, Parsons*, Narkle*, Menegola, Bews*, Cunico
 
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