Review Cats down Blues by 13 points.

[CHAWKTS]

ESPN’s Jake Michaels doesn’t like us
Collingwood or Richmond supporter do you think?

1. Forget the score, Carlton's definitely a better team than Geelong​

You can tell me to look at the final score -- and ladder -- all you like, but there's no way you'll convince me the Cats are a better football team than the Blues in 2024.

On Saturday afternoon at the MCG, Carlton dominated Geelong in just about every major area. The Blues finished +35 in disposals, +21 in inside 50s, +19 in contested possessions, +6 in clearances, and had more shots at goal, yet inefficiency forward of centre meant it was the Cats celebrating at fulltime.

Since 2003, there had been 191 instances (not including this effort from the Blues) of teams enjoying such stark advantages in these areas. The win-loss record of those sides was 187-4.

Champion Data's expected scores tell us instead of a 13-point win to the Cats, the two sides should have played out a draw. But even that feels generous to Geelong. My eyes tell me the game wasn't remotely close.

Accuracy, or in Carlton's case, inaccuracy, fluctuates week to week. The numbers would suggest that if you played this game 10 times, the Blues win seven or eight of them, at the very least!

For all of those reasons, I'm not concerned about Carlton and its premiership aspirations. In my mind, they remain far more likely than the Cats to go all the way this season. In fact, I'd go further. Sydney, GWS, Melbourne and Carlton are all better premiership chances in 2024 than Geelong. Stick that in your time capsules.

Who??

Doesn’t ESPN just do basketball?

My eyes told me that Geelong was comfortably ahead the entire game. It got close and cats then kicked a couple. Had the game in control and never got behind

It is a silly take.

If someone says Carlton are a good team and could beat Geelong next time. Then I am ok with that view. If they even say Carlton remain favourites for the flag over Geelong given some upside reason…then ok that is an opinion….but DEFINITELY better is (successful) click bate. No point having a sensible view as people don’t comment

 

[CHAWKTS]

A phenomenal game film, especially being in the rooms at half time. Marking + goal kicking was super. Again, fantastic to see players shepherding + supporting one another. Cats are a tactically brilliant footy team. The cohesion is inspiring, every player contributing. The camaraderie, encouragement + praise between the players provides elation to supporters. Scotty isn't a bad coach either

Dear God I love our team

I am loving these game films…I can’t remember them being this good each week in prior years? Maybe winning helping but the pre game and half time scenes are fab

 

[STPer18]

ESPN’s Jake Michaels doesn’t like us
Collingwood or Richmond supporter do you think?

1. Forget the score, Carlton's definitely a better team than Geelong​

You can tell me to look at the final score -- and ladder -- all you like, but there's no way you'll convince me the Cats are a better football team than the Blues in 2024.

On Saturday afternoon at the MCG, Carlton dominated Geelong in just about every major area. The Blues finished +35 in disposals, +21 in inside 50s, +19 in contested possessions, +6 in clearances, and had more shots at goal, yet inefficiency forward of centre meant it was the Cats celebrating at fulltime.

Since 2003, there had been 191 instances (not including this effort from the Blues) of teams enjoying such stark advantages in these areas. The win-loss record of those sides was 187-4.

Champion Data's expected scores tell us instead of a 13-point win to the Cats, the two sides should have played out a draw. But even that feels generous to Geelong. My eyes tell me the game wasn't remotely close.

Accuracy, or in Carlton's case, inaccuracy, fluctuates week to week. The numbers would suggest that if you played this game 10 times, the Blues win seven or eight of them, at the very least!

For all of those reasons, I'm not concerned about Carlton and its premiership aspirations. In my mind, they remain far more likely than the Cats to go all the way this season. In fact, I'd go further. Sydney, GWS, Melbourne and Carlton are all better premiership chances in 2024 than Geelong. Stick that in your time capsules.

From Jake's upcoming tips:

Upset and why: If I keep picking against the Cats I'm bound to get one correct eventually, right!? That's the hope! The Demons are well rested and the Cats have several injury concerns. If they can't beat them now, when will they?

Credit to him, he's not hiding his disdain with platitudes like some of the leading media folk.

 

[#6 Thorp #7 Selwood LOL]

From Jake's upcoming tips:

Credit to him, he's not hiding his disdain with platitudes like some of the leading media folk.

Several injury concerns including Patrick Dangerfield, and.... ummm... Mitch Edwards (whom this bloke has definitely never heard of).

 

[STPer18]

Several injury concerns including Patrick Dangerfield, and.... ummm... Mitch Edwards (whom this bloke has definitely never heard of).

On the bright side if we lose we can play the injury card like so many supporters of our opposition have this year!

 

[Strange Cat]

On the bright side if we lose we can play the injury card like so many supporters of our opposition have this year!

Didn’t help us last year as we were routinely told that we are over the cliff

 

[#6 Thorp #7 Selwood LOL]

Didn’t help us last year as we were routinely told that we are over the cliff

There is a direct correlation between people predicting our demise this year and dismissing our injury crisis last year.

 

[Lana]

He had st kilda top 4 which was to us non analytical people seemed just plain silly. And his record over the years is laughable. But actually becoming enjoyable

Was silly to analytical people too.

I agree I find it funny. That he is the “best analyst in the business” with it seems the absolute worst predictions. Like any economist he sounds very knowledgeable, can explain what happened and mixes up what should happen (based on his analysis) with what will happen. And is always wrong. But keeps employed can explain very well what just happened and why it turn out like he said giving hope that next prediction might be right.

If someone had a predictive model that actually worked they wouldn't be telling anyone, they'd be enjoying printing money.

The truth of the matter is the conditions between different game are so different that they undermine a comparative exercise. Better than nothing but unreliable.

 

[Romeoh1]

There is a direct correlation between people predicting our demise this year and dismissing our injury crisis last year.

Yep- quite a few commentators don’t seem to have realised how injury derailed our 2023 year from week 1, and continued all year. Duffers!

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

King needs to put the lid tightly back on. Yes, it's a worry, he's jinxed us now. I prefer flying under the radar.

View attachment 1975730

BIG fan of the lid here. Those of us who lived through the Malcolm Blight era know. We just KNOW.

 

[CabWesty]

BIG fan of the lid here. Those of us who lived through the Malcolm Blight era know. We just KNOW.

And 2008.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

BIG fan of the lid here. Those of us who lived through the Malcolm Blight era know. We just KNOW.

The big difference is , back then there were genuine Champion teams you had to beat to win that Premiership , Hawthorn played in 7 GFs in a row or something FFS

Fast forward to today - the standard of the comp the last 3 years is very ordinary to say the least , take this year there would still be 8-9 teams eyeing off that Premiership Cup . Last year GWS where treading water for most part of it , 10 or so games to go they got their act together and in the PF midway through the 3rd qtr they had Coll on toast , one foot on their throat , and if they had of prevailed they would have got the fragile Bears in the GF

In the 80s and 90s you had to knockover - take out a champion team to win a Premiership , not a run of the mill side with a sprinkling of top notch players

 

[cats_09]

 

[Mr Meow]

The big difference is , back then there were genuine Champion teams you had to beat to win that Premiership , Hawthorn played in 7 GFs in a row or something FFS

Fast forward to today - the standard of the comp the last 3 years is very ordinary to say the least , take this year there would still be 8-9 teams eyeing off that Premiership Cup . Last year GWS where treading water for most part of it , 10 or so games to go they got their act together and in the PF midway through the 3rd qtr they had Coll on toast , one foot on their throat , and if they had of prevailed they would have got the fragile Bears in the GF

In the 80s and 90s you had to knockover - take out a champion team to win a Premiership , not a run of the mill side with a sprinkling of top notch players

Bingo and this is why I've been somewhat bullish on the Cats most years we are thereabouts, as despite having flawed teams the premiership standard just isn't that high. Maybe in 2019 and 2020 in beating the Tigers who were full of belief and had a forceful, finals-ready style. But a great side would've beaten them, they were still the last ones standing among a pack of flawed sides or ones that were mentally brittle in big games (Port, Brisbane etc...even throw Geelong in).

So yeah, anytime your side is good you have a real shot these days. Greatness is rarely needed.

 

[Interdimensional Bigfoot]

King needs to put the lid tightly back on. Yes, it's a worry, he's jinxed us now. I prefer flying under the radar.

View attachment 1975730

 

[Hello Kitty]

I am loving these game films…I can’t remember them being this good each week in prior years? Maybe winning helping but the pre game and half time scenes are fab

Thanks for commenting Chawkts, pleased you enjoyed this game film, too.
Nor do I remember the game films being so good in previous years, either. I especially love the pre game + half time, as I said, in the rooms. Would love to hear the players discussing the game, but I understand it's top secret lol They looked so relaxed at half time. I thought it was very well filmed too.

 

[Hello Kitty]

BIG fan of the lid here. Those of us who lived through the Malcolm Blight era know. We just KNOW.

I was there too, Sicko. Very tough years for us.

Beginning with 1989 GF, from which, I've never recovered

1990, 13 losses, failed to make finals
1991, a better year, lost to WCE in PF
1992, lost GF to WCE very muscular team
1993, better year than 1990, failed to make finals
1994, lost GF to WCE, an even larger muscular team

During the St Kilda game, Rd12, Saints were leading. Frustrated Geelong supporters directed their displeasure at Blight, booing + heckling him as he made his way down to the huddle. He told Gerard Whately he knew his time was up. "Although he made light of this to his assistant coach and soon to be successor, Gary Ayres, by remarking "I told you, the Geelong people don't like you Hawthorn people", Blight was stung inwardly by the negative reception."

 

[RegHickeyStand]

BIG fan of the lid here. Those of us who lived through the Malcolm Blight era know. We just KNOW.

Unless its a pisstake, it pays to be humble by default.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Unless its a pisstake, it pays to be humble by default.

In my experience it pays to never be serious about anything

 

[Cataholic]

In my experience it pays to never be serious about anything

In my humble experience it pays to be serious when the Mrs is about, and especially so if she's asking you a question.......

 

[CatToTheFuture]

In my humble experience it pays to be serious when the Mrs is about, and especially so if she's asking you a question.......

I usually allow hope to triumph experience in such affairs

 

[Cataholic]

I usually allow hope to triumph experience in such affairs

Hope?

You've not been together long then to hang on to such a concept?!

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Hope?

You've not been together long then to hang on to such a concept?!

8 years just gone this week. Three kids deep and extremely tired.

 

[Cataholic]

8 years just gone this week. Three kids deep and extremely tired.

Congratulations!

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Congratulations!

Thanks, now if you don't mind I need a nap