Caufield Cup form for Melbourne Cup

AAMI

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Thread starter #1
We are always told that Caufield Cup form is the best form for the Melbourne Cup and that has often proven to be the case.

However....

Last year was no guide whatsoever.

And this year, the track bias suggests the form might be deceptive.

Thoughts?
 

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sethlad

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#3
Last years race was always gunna be misleading IMO.

Eye Popper simply couldnt back up his herculian CC performance & if they couldnt get past Mummify on 3 legs they werent gunna improve enough to win at Flemington.

Natural Blitz ran 4th from memory so it didnt augur well for the rest.

This year,I hear theyre bringing a Japanese jockey out for Delta Blues so thats not gunna help it much.

seth
 

sethlad

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#5
Ok,here's the market at Sportingbet after yesterday:

Yeats 5.5
Tawqeet 6
Pop Rock 8
Delta Blues 10
On a Jeune 12
Railings,Activation 14
Dizelle 15
Geordieland 17
O S Joe 19
Pentane,Zipping 26
Headturner 31

Mmmm,certainly looking a bit thin all of a sudden.I know Geelong has been a decent guide in the last few years,but history tells us that nothing over $21 wins M Cup's nowadays.

I couldnt be on On A Jeune,Railings,Activation at those odds.
Dizelle,surely theres a zero missing,not good enough.
Pentane's had a setback,Zippings a $1000/1 to get 2 miles,Headturner was horrible.

I know a little about Geordieland,chased Yeats home at Goodwood & gets the better of the weights so maybe he's a little value? What do you think?

seth
 

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#7
Junior_Hawker said:
On today's run, Pop Rock will win the Melbourne Cup on it's ear !!!!
That's what everyone said about Eye Popper last year.

For me, well i have no idea, i'm potting them all. Might just have to go with the obvious, Tawqeet.
 

Rough_Edges

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#8
oh my god Leica would've won this race by around 8 lengths.

Got so much more class than the rest.

Backed him in every race his run, and would've backed him in this one as well
 
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#9
Bobby Beecroft said:
The winner still hasn't impressed you yet?
Hard to please.
Wish you were the handicapper, half a kg sound fair?
I was tipping Tawqueet to everyone for the last two months and then haven't had a cent on it in the Metrop or the CC.
Only had a $50 multi with Eremein to win the Cox Plate and we all know the story there.
Check the sportsbet competition thread for some of my other bets. I'm sure you'll get a good read out if it and maybe respect my judgement a little more

Tawqueet was impressive after copping a slight check in the straight but had all the favours other than that and never went around a horse.
If you did what I do with all spring carnival races and taped the race, just keep your eye on Pop Rock for the last 600 and in particular the last 50metres or so.
One of the best Melbourne Cup trials you are ever likely to see along with Leica Falcon when it ran in the same race.

Popeii Ruler is my horse to beat in the Cox Plate if anyone cares.

Apologies for the stinky attitude tonight but when a few bets just fail to come off (see sportsbetting tipping comp thread) I'm sure you could understand

Happy punting for the rest of the carnival.

Seth, if your reading I think Sting Lika Bee will be very hard to beat in the Kilmore Cup next sunday.

Cheers
 

Dingster

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#11
Yeats has fairly big wraps on it and it might have picked the right year (ie. no MD), so it looks tough to beat if you don't mind the os horses. Think that's where my money will be at this stage.
 

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#12
sethlad said:
I'll be there,never miss it.
Good to see some up & comers this year

seth
Unfortunately will be missing it again Seth.
I've wanted to go every year for the last 20 years and still haven't got to one.
Going up to Maryborough this weekend to see how my filly is going.

We might have to catch up at a meeting somewhere along the line.

All the best for it anyway

Ciao
 

PLSC

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#13
yeats is a moral

ive watched a few of his races and he is so much better than any of these guys its funny
 

go fullta

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#14
speaking of yeats, yesterday before the race's i was walking along southbank near crown and it wasnt busy at all, next thing i no, kieren fallon walks straight past me...my heart has never beated so fast, im so annoyed that i didnt stop him and have a chat to him!!!

i was gunna ask him what he thinks of statue of liberty and king charlemagne who we have mares in foal too or foals at foot
 

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#15
sethlad said:
I couldnt be on On A Jeune,Railings,Activation at those odds.
Ok I might be fresh behind the ears but why cant you be? The odds dont determine who wins..only who the bookies and punters think will win...and as we see time after time they both get it wrong
 

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#16
Ricketts said:
For me, well i have no idea, i'm potting them all. Might just have to go with the obvious, Tawqeet.
Same...I still have 6-7 to muck around with. Might have some mighty combo tris like I have the last 3 years
 

AAMI

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Thread starter #17
I just checked out the Melbourne Cup market, trying to look for some value. It's pretty hard to find anything which might be over the odds.

One horse that stood out was Lad of the Manor at 200/1. If it wins the Cox Plate (which isn't out of the question), could it possibly "do a Saintly" and go on to win the Cup as well? Seeing that it is in the market, they must have paid up for it to this stage.
 

Angus1

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#18
AAMI said:
I just checked out the Melbourne Cup market, trying to look for some value. It's pretty hard to find anything which might be over the odds.

One horse that stood out was Lad of the Manor at 200/1. If it wins the Cox Plate (which isn't out of the question), could it possibly "do a Saintly" and go on to win the Cup as well? Seeing that it is in the market, they must have paid up for it to this stage.
Lad Of the Manor at $200/1 :confused: yeah put me down for $10 worth thanks. :)
Lad of the Manor is an excellent chance to win the Cox Plate but the reason why it is 200/1 for Melbourne Cup is because it isn't expected to start. ;)
 

sethlad

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#19
PerthCrow said:
Ok I might be fresh behind the ears but why cant you be? The odds dont determine who wins..only who the bookies and punters think will win...and as we see time after time they both get it wrong


Ok,heres how I think about the MC.If you are gunna win,you need to be a WFA horse.You dont have to have won at WFA but you must be competitive.
Since 1990 when the Cup changed from a B grade handicappers race,this "rule" has stood the test.Only exception is Brew & it was an incredibly weak year,Kaapstad Way ran favourite.I dont include V Crop & Media Puzzle because their form was a little hard to line up.
Therefore:

On a Jeune:Great old handicapper but would get lapped at WFA.I know he ran 2nd last year & he may be placed but I think a few have him covered.

Railings:Had his birthday in CC last year,has never got warm at WFA & IMO is struggling this year.

Activation:He's a handicapper & I thought he struggled at the 2400m Sat.
I know he ran on ok but he had a perfect run just off the pace & didnt quite see it out.

I would want 50/1 any of these as a winning option.They may get into the money but I doubt they can win & after all,its about winning.

seth
 

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#20
sethlad said:
On a Jeune:Great old handicapper but would get lapped at WFA.I know he ran 2nd last year & he may be placed but I think a few have him covered.

Railings:Had his birthday in CC last year,has never got warm at WFA & IMO is struggling this year.

Activation:He's a handicapper & I thought he struggled at the 2400m Sat.
I know he ran on ok but he had a perfect run just off the pace & didnt quite see it out.

I would want 50/1 any of these as a winning option.They may get into the money but I doubt they can win & after all,its about winning.

seth
Cheers.

I look more for the Tri bets so still consider horses like these and Definitely OTJ
 

sethlad

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#21
Yep & so you should,just dont waste $$$ putting them in to win

Just about every year something battles into 2nd or 3rd,making the tri worthwhile.On A Jeune,Zazzman,Magnolia Hall to name a few.

seth
 

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#22
Junior_Hawker said:
I was tipping Tawqueet to everyone for the last two months and then haven't had a cent on it in the Metrop or the CC.
Only had a $50 multi with Eremein to win the Cox Plate and we all know the story there.

Cheers
I backed him in the Metrop, but not on Saturday.
Got him going with El in a Cox Plate & Melb Cup double, at nice odds.

Frustrating in a way I just didn't want him to win due to the risk of a large penalty. Then again if he continues to improve at the rate he is a couple of kgs, may not hurt.

I was more just making a point that this time last year most were barking Eye Popper after the CC & overlooking the obvious choice. Anyway Hawker hopefully you can back him Cup Day & we both can make up some 'missed' opportunites. :)
 
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#23
There is a horse that will need a lot of luck in the way that it is unqualified at the moment and is first emergency, with barrier 17 in the Geelong Cup. Magic Instinct went home better than Tawqeet two runs back behind Zipping and Growl when he was 2nd up, then had no luck at all in the Metrop from an impossible gate.

He will bypass Geelong and hopefully gain a start in the MV Cup. More to the point, hopefully he can break Peter Moody's extraordinary run of bad luck at the barrier draw. I'll be having something on at the $81 before Saturday as if he has even luck, he could well be the fresh horse on the scene come Melb Cup time.


Cheers
 

HeLMie

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#24
cefalu_instinct said:
There is a horse that will need a lot of luck in the way that it is unqualified at the moment and is first emergency, with barrier 17 in the Geelong Cup. Magic Instinct went home better than Tawqeet two runs back behind Zipping and Growl when he was 2nd up, then had no luck at all in the Metrop from an impossible gate.

He will bypass Geelong and hopefully gain a start in the MV Cup. More to the point, hopefully he can break Peter Moody's extraordinary run of bad luck at the barrier draw. I'll be having something on at the $81 before Saturday as if he has even luck, he could well be the fresh horse on the scene come Melb Cup time.


Cheers
This horse may have been put down yesterday.
 
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#25
Yeats is no doubt the best horse in this race. His win in the Ascot Gold Cup was breathtaking - a field which included Distinction and Media Puzzle - he absolutely trounced them.
 
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