Racing Caulfield Cup 2018

[Viva la Mattner]

First of the big 3 coming up next weekend
Kings Will Dream for me

Jon Snow my best roughie

discuss....

balmainforever please sticky thread?

 

[Areyoufireal]

Took Youngstar at 15s and Jon Snow at 34s prior to last weeks Turnball. Happy with one, not so much the other.

Impressed with Yucatan's win today. Does anyone know if Finche is running in the CC before the MC? Is he even in Aus yet?

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Took Youngstar at 15s and Jon Snow at 34s prior to last weeks Turnball. Happy with one, not so much the other.

Impressed with Yucatan's win today. Does anyone know if Finche is running in the CC before the MC? Is he even in Aus yet?

can't see Finche in CC market ?

I mentioned it in the other thread, but Yucatan was impressive yes, but beat not much at all

 

[rideclutch]

Cliffs Of Moher was a nice trial today. Should go well if Hughie remembers how to ride.

 

[Jugada]

You couldn't back any of the locals after seeing what the second string raiders are doing to our middle distance horses

 

[Jugada]

Yucatan, The Cliffsofmoher, Best Solution, Sound Check, Chestnut Coat, Duretto

Put a line through the rest

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Yucatan, The Cliffsofmoher, Best Solution, Sound Check, Chestnut Coat, Duretto

Put a line through the rest

c'mon Jug no love for Kings Will Dream?

 

[balmainforever]

When is the final field announced???

 

[Viva la Mattner]

When is the final field announced???

wednesday

 

[Jugada]

c'mon Jug no love for Kings Will Dream?

Nope none at all. Its decent by local standards but if any of those horses produce something close to their peaks then it has none. Not even sure it will be the first local home

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Nope none at all. Its decent by local standards but if any of those horses produce something close to their peaks then it has none. Not even sure it will be the first local home

big call!
I have it on top

followed by Youngstar, COM and Jon Snow

 

[Gavin Excell]

You couldn't back any of the locals after seeing what the second string raiders are doing to our middle distance horses

Yep

If Yucatan runs im on

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Little bit concerned about Yucatan. Though he won easily yesterday he still had a pretty tough run against a very ordinary lot and has to back up a week later which i doubt he is accustomed to?

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Little bit concerned about Yucatan. Though he won easily yesterday he still had a pretty tough run against a very ordinary lot and has to back up a week later which i doubt he is accustomed to?

As I mentioned earlier, happy for everyone to blow thier load over Yucatan off that 1 run.
Boosts price on what I believe is the winner in Kings Will Dream

 

[rideclutch]

If Yucatan gets a big enough penalty from yesterday, will they still back up? Cox Plate > Cup I would've thought.

Cliffs already has a lot of weight in the MC - maybe they back him up instead and then use him as a pacemaker in the MC.

 

[FallingLiefs]

The rule with Europeans is class counts for 70% of their performance. The last +\- 30% comes down to racing on flat surfaces around sharp bends in the heat. Some go backwards, some improve out of sight.

Can’t go making clear assumptions that the form holds up because horse x improved once he got here.

 

[Jugada]

For mine Best Solution brings in the strongest mile and a half form and will be extremely hard to beat. Running 5th in the Sheema Classic and finishing within a couple lengths of Poets Word, Cloth of Stars and Rey De Oro is strong. Has held his good form with 3 wins on the trot since then. Has to carry 57.5kg which is tough but most of the live chances being compressed at the top of the weights helps a lot and we have seen good quality horses win with 58kg recently like Admire Rakti and Dunaden.

Both Sound Check and Duretto get weight off him for close defeats recently so ill be including them on the next line.

Cliffs of Moher brings in strong mile and a half form always finishing just behind the really good ones in the UK but has been well found in the market so no real value.

Yucatan looked sensational but question marks on whether he will go there and there are other raiders at much better odds so happy to leave out.

Chestnut Coat ill probably end up risking here with a bit of rain possibly around. Will wait and see though.

 

[rideclutch]

The rule with Europeans is class counts for 70% of their performance. The last +\- 30% comes down to racing on flat surfaces around sharp bends in the heat. Some go backwards, some improve out of sight.

Can’t go making clear assumptions that the form holds up because horse x improved once he got here.

First point is interesting - I don't know where you got the percentages, but I can accept the reasoning. Haven't really thought of it like that.

Second point also true but if we're going off 70% as the number, I'm still happy to play a little bit of "horse racing math" based on overseas form.

 

[FallingLiefs]

First point is interesting - I don't know where you got the percentages, but I can accept the reasoning. Haven't really thought of it like that.

Second point also true but if we're going off 70% as the number, I'm still happy to play a little bit of "horse racing math" based on overseas form.

was just random numbers explaining the point. Examples everywhere of form being reversed on Australian soil it really depends on the horses adaption to Australia. I'm not up to date with international form of the raiders coming over but for example

if a horse was consistently(truely) better than Yucatan by 2L in Europe, i'd still be marking Yucatan fave against it. obviously would be more confident watching replays and horses style of running.

conversely the reverse works for good horses that don't adjust and inferior horses can beat them here.

 

[Gavin Excell]

The rule with Europeans is class counts for 70% of their performance. The last +\- 30% comes down to racing on flat surfaces around sharp bends in the heat. Some go backwards, some improve out of sight.

Can’t go making clear assumptions that the form holds up because horse x improved once he got here.

To me its how they acclimatise.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

To me its how they acclimatise.

Perfect example of this was Red Cadeaux
Deadset average in the UK, but thrived out here

 

[plays tall 1]

Took Youngstar at 15s and Jon Snow at 34s prior to last weeks Turnball. Happy with one, not so much the other.

Impressed with Yucatan's win today. Does anyone know if Finche is running in the CC before the MC? Is he even in Aus yet?

Grace Ramage hasn’t mentioned him in her updates on who’s not running of those nom’d for the CC, so it sounds likeFinche’s running. $81 available, i suspect he’ll start a lot shorter if he draws a decent gate. When folks see the name Avilius popping up in his past runs I expect he’ll get a bit more respect. Looks to have tactical speed, which is always handy at Caulfield.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Grace Ramage hasn’t mentioned him in her updates on who’s not running of those nom’d for the CC, so it sounds likeFinche’s running. $81 available, i suspect he’ll start a lot shorter if he draws a decent gate. When folks see the name Avilius popping up in his past runs I expect he’ll get a bit more respect. Looks to have tactical speed, which is always handy at Caulfield.

Cheers just threw $10 on Finche @ 81's

 

[FallingLiefs]

Perfect example of this was Red Cadeaux
Deadset average in the UK, but thrived out here

Yeats will forever be the perfect example in reverse.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Yeats will forever be the perfect example in reverse.

add to that Septimus, Mamool and biggest flop for me Oscar Schindler