Racing Caulfield Cup 2019

[iluvparis]

Mirage Dancer's form looks good to me, Competitive with Best Solution, not enamored with the trainer change.

Big question marks there too - Yes lots of people pointing this out but that form is almost 18 months old so has to be a huge chance he doesn't - especially when his last two runs where his worst before two years.

Remember when people wanted to back Sound because it had Best Solution form

 

[iluvparis]

Arctic Scent ran second last in the Caulfield stakes before winning the Cup the following week

Another good nom - so we are talking 20+years and feels like the race has changed a bit since then.

Circles of Gold ran second that year out of the Coongy on the Wednesday from memory - Mr Q/Wolfe quin for traditions sake!?!?!

 

[HeathySure]

Another good nom - so we are talking 20+years and feels like the race has changed a bit since then.

Circles of Gold ran second that year out of the Coongy on the Wednesday from memory - Mr Q/Wolfe quin for traditions sake!?!?!

that track was as rails biased as Winx first cox plate and POPs Melb cup. So i stand by my Fraar nomination!!

 

[IKnowtheDog]

that track was as rails biased as Winx first cox plate and POPs Melb cup. So i stand by my Fraar nomination!!

But you said Fraar was slaughtered. A bad run is different from a slaughter, which is the subject at discussion.

admittedly there was a leader bias that say.

if only there was somewhere you could view old replays

 

[iluvparis]

But the point stands - it is SUPER rare for horses to turn around such a bad run and bounce back to win these races. It's not a Moe Maiden. And the horse is single figures/approaching fave. Madness

 

[Viva la Mattner]

The Turk into equal fav

 

[anabac]

Neufbosc is confirmed to be coming to Melbourne, scratched in Sydney. They must be pretty confident of Crown Prosecutor not being passed fit, and then relying on another scratching..

EDIT: now hearing Crown Prosecutor has trotted up fine in front of stewards this morning but they will inspect him this afternoon before he's cleared to run. Maybe Neufbosc should've stayed in Sydney

 

[Hamingja]

So many question marks over the whole field. I can find a reason why most of the field cannot win. Cauflfield Cup is just an afterthought these days, seems like even the overseas horses are just group 3 European/Japan Quality.

Best group 1 Form... Rostrakovich..but going terrible... stable can pull out a long odds winner in big races though (see Fraar Boom Time), and Hartnell.. probably over the odds
My question mark over Finche, couldnt beat Runway in the Geelong Cup over the same distance. Barrier is shizen.
My Question Mark over MDG, barrier and it might be a soft track although predicted to be warm tomorrow.
Mirage Dancer's form looks good to me, Competitive with Best Solution, not enamored with the trainer change.
Mustajeer, I am sure Banana Bus is ecstatic with Kris Lees training... automatic 5 length handicap for me.
Dont like any of the Australians. All got form around Qalifa Sa Derby and she is going disgusting.

By process of elimination i tip Mirage Dancer from Rostrapovich, MDG Hartnell , Constantinople and Wolfe cos he is lightly weighted and i have always liked horses backing up really quickly, plus he will be on pace.

Will be interesting to see how the track races, given Caulfield has been great all year i can only imagine the will have to fu** it up with all the rail movement this week.

I'm going to have $10 bonus bet on Rostropovich. I don't like anything much either.

Honestly think I would have backed Prince of Arran if it made the field.

 

[HeathySure]

But you said Fraar was slaughtered. A bad run is different from a slaughter, which is the subject at discussion.

admittedly there was a leader bias that say.

if only there was somewhere you could view old replays

i dont need too... that was my biggest collect on the Caulfield Cup ever and it came off a pissy $30 box quinella with the leaders which paid about $500 from memory.
Anyway i agree with you on the videos. How one of the largest industries in Australia cannot have a library of their great races even from the 90s when the internet was around just astounds me. I cannot find one vid of Hareeba.. its quite insane

 

[HeathySure]

I honestly believe market moves in this race are meaningless. So many more variables than in any normal race and whoever might be confident of something is just guessing, Can understand market moves after horses appear in the mounting yard, but today... pointless looking even at them

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Crown Prosecutor scratched
Assuming that Neufbosc is in

 

[anabac]

Crown Prosecutor scratched
Assuming that Neufbosc is in

You don't think Sound will run?

 

[onebillsdrive]

Since October last year Sound has had 7 runs for no placing.......True self 7 runs for 3 listed wins and a G2 placing ...how does Sound even qualify for a start?

 

[Gavin Excell]

Since October last year Sound has had 7 runs for no placing.......True self 7 runs for 3 listed wins and a G2 placing ...how does Sound even qualify for a start?

Yes a good question

 

[Viva la Mattner]

My thoughts on the field :

1. Hartnell - grand old star who at handicap conditions isn’t without a winning chance - on @ 34’s

2. Mirage Dancer - At it’s best more than good enough, hasn’t been setting the world on fire, but again is in my top 8 - am also on

3. MDG - gun Japanese horse equal top rater for me

4. Mustajeer - Not a fan...Kris Lees =

5. Rostropovich- lost some of its touch this prep . Can’t have it

6. Finche - he is as Paris would say poi poi will have some sprint away at the 200-150m mark

7. Gold Mount - too short needs further will be on pace grinder

8. Red Verdon- injury cloud and don’t rate it at all

9. Angel of Truth - ATC derby winner but not classy enough here

10. Big Duke - this is Caulfield not Birdsville.... pass

11. Constantinople- equal top rater with MDG, could rip this field to shreds Might and Power style

12. Mr Quickie - pass at the price too short

14. Vow and Declare - place only don’t get the hype B grader here

15. Brimham Rocks - C grader who was s**t in the Metrop

16. The Chosen One - don’t think it runs top 4 but #IloveMurray never write off a Murray Baker horse he brings over

17. Qafila- not good enough against this lot, a good honest horse

18. Wolfe- will make the pace up front but will be gassed at the 350m

Top 4:
CONSTANTINOPLE
MDG
MIRAGE DANCER
HARTNELL

 

[Slipps]

My thoughts on the field :

1. Hartnell - grand old star who at handicap conditions isn’t without a winning chance - on @ 34’s

2. Mirage Dancer - At it’s best more than good enough, hasn’t been setting the world on fire, but again is in my top 8 - am also on

3. MDG - gun Japanese horse equal top rater for me

4. Mustajeer - Not a fan...Kris Lees =

5. Rostropovich- lost some of its touch this prep . Can’t have it

6. Finche - he is as Paris would say poi poi will have some sprint away at the 200-150m mark

7. Gold Mount - too short needs further will be on pace grinder

8. Red Verdon- injury cloud and don’t rate it at all

9. Angel of Truth - ATC derby winner but not classy enough here

10. Big Duke - this is Caulfield not Birdsville.... pass

11. Constantinople- equal top rater with MDG, could rip this field to shreds Might and Power style

12. Mr Quickie - pass at the price too short

14. Vow and Declare - place only don’t get the hype B grader here

15. Brimham Rocks - C grader who was s**t in the Metrop

16. The Chosen One - don’t think it runs top 4 but #IloveMurray never write off a Murray Baker horse he brings over

17. Qafila- not good enough against this lot, a good honest horse

18. Wolfe- will make the pace up front but will be gassed at the 350m

Top 4:
CONSTANTINOPLE
MDG
MIRAGE DANCER
HARTNELL

Consta all the way glad a backed it weeks ago not backing anything else in the race.

 

[iluvparis]

I'll be breaking down my multis like this

A Line: MDG, Turk
A- Line: Finche
B Line: V&D, Mirage,
C Line: Hartnell, The Chosen One, Wolfe, Mustajeer

 

[AvantGardener]

I'll be breaking down my multis like this

A Line: MDG, Turk
A- Line: Finche
B Line: V&D, Mirage,
C Line: Hartnell, The Chosen One, Wolfe, Mustajeer

Honestly you only need to downgrade Finche a little bit and get Mr Q in there somewhere and you've done pretty well

 

[Viva la Mattner]

iluvparis we running group chat again tomorrow? or

 

[Slipps]

My dads brother is a Mr Quickie backer, its his main bet... i have $50 with him that Consta finishes in front of him #easymoney

 

[iluvparis]

iluvparis we running group chat again tomorrow? or

I'll be on track so I can tell the grandkids I was there when Australia's greatest ever horse won his third straight Everest. but you guys should go for it

 

[iluvparis]

Honestly you only need to downgrade Finche a little bit and get Mr Q in there somewhere and you've done pretty well

Why would I throw away % on a horse we have proven today is not going to bounce back (it just doesn't happen) and is probably the biggest unders in the race

 

[Viva la Mattner]

I'll be on track so I can tell the grandkids I was there when Australia's greatest ever horse won his third straight Everest. but you guys should go for it

Enjoy
Should be a great day there tomorrow
A few I like there tomorrow
Victorem, Happy Clapper and Penske

You’re on the same as me in the Everest

You flying solo with mates or Mrs ILP in tow?

 

[FallingLiefs]

IMO the problem with MrQ isn’t his last run. It was the spike before that.

A consistent horse that has a bad run you can nearly forget about the bad run. What MrQ has done is a big flashy run and a poor one. As a resuming 4yo it’s not unrealistic to say his good run will become normal and you can forgive him last week. But on exposed form it’s hard to forgive as horses like that.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Big stuff up with Neufbosc scratched from Syd thinking will gain a start but Sound gets the gig

FWIW either True Self or POA should have been in