Caulfield Cup 2020

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iluvparis

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Got threads for the others so may as well get this one up too.

Verry Elleegant $17 looks a gift if floggo owner and Waller can be trusted about her aiming at the cups
Yeah I’ve taken some of the $17 just as a hedge for my CP bets
 

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iluvparis

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As for the real winner. NFI. Will wait to final field at this rate.

A solid placing from PG that seems him dodge the arc and run here probably gets him into single figures
 

HeathComeBack

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If Dogolphin had half a brain Avilicat would run in this and be a huge chance especially if theres a bit of rain about, this race was made for him. 100/1 pre post but no doubt it will run 9th in the Cox plate
 

iluvparis

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If Dogolphin had half a brain Avilicat would run in this and be a huge chance especially if theres a bit of rain about, this race was made for him. 100/1 pre post but no doubt it will run 9th in the Cox plate
He is not winning at this age with that weight.
 

iluvparis

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Regardless of how he goes - how good will it be if we have the first Epsom Derby winner to win another race since 2016 coming for the Caulfield Cup. It was looking like being an appalling field and it would be a magical day for the Melbourne Racing Club if he could win the Caulfield Cup and add another storied chapter to the race's history. The race has looked like falling right away a number of times over the last 30 years or so but keeps finding a way to stay relevant.
 

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Jugada

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Tentative rankings here too

1. Anthony Van Dyck

Absolute clear class in the race. Off the top of my head can't recall a better credentialed horse coming down for the CC and in a year of absolute trash lining up the weight shouldn't be any issue.

Has form around the best stayers and middle distance horses in the world. Beaten Stradivarius twice this year, second to Ghaiyyath. Won't see better form out here.

Also not a race that horses havent been able to carry weight. Best Solution (58), Dunaden (58), Admire Rakti (58), Viewed (57) all in recent years.

Worth getting on before the day too I think. Feels like a bit of the Lys Gracieux's about it where the money will just keep coming race day.

2. Buckhurst

Was liking him for a Cox Plate early on in the prep but hasn't been going quite good enough lately. Still 50-1 here represents value about a horse who has been running ok against Sir Dragonet and Tiger Moth. Last start was a little bit plain but had to give Tiger Moth 5kg when he had to carry 10 stone and missed the kick a bit. Was a length off 2nd still. Not as high on him anymore but at the price I'm back in here and Lloyd knows how to get them firing when they come here.

3. Dalasan

Another at 50-1 that is progressing fairly. Has dat pristine Adelaide form with a 2nd behind the Camel so with him being applauded as the second coming this guy has to be some chance in a weak CC with just 52.5kg on his back.

4. Finche

Favourite in this race last year, doesn't seem to be going any worse. Getting a better price in a weaker race. Will have to go into exotics.

5. Prince of Arran

Trip and track not that suitable but going well and grows a leg here so should still be around the mark and pick up some prize money.

6. Skyward

Lot of work to get into the race still but with the attrition rate looking really high here he could be on the cusp. Nice lightly raced horse who has won 4 from 7 and raced behind AVD and Stradivarius last start meeting them on equal weights. Will meet AVD 6kg better if he gets in here so will need to be around the mark.

7. Port Guillaume

Was tracking nicely before completely shitting the bed last time. Would need to take on trust and is far too short for that but has to go in somewhere based on previous form.

8. Verry Elleegant

Had to put away the George Main if she was going to be a serious chance. Throw her in though it pisses down.
 

iluvparis

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Yeah Jug has summed it up pretty well - just adjust for my complete hatred of French form in recent years.

There is going to be plenty in this with massively overhyped international form even though they are coming of atrocious-to-poor last starts so you could get some big prices about some locals with decent form (top 3s in Turnbull/Caulfield Stakes etc).

Like top of betting right now

OOTG with that smoking hot Chapada form
Master of Wine - ok in MD but jury still out
Port Guillaume - beaten 10000 lengths last start
VE - as Jug said - pathetic in pissweak George Main
Aktau - horrific first up behind champions like The Chonse One and Django Freeman
Le Don De Vie - last two starts in fields of 5 and 6 - before that was getting rolled in average handicaps by horses that got beat out of sight in the Slowbor
 

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