Lip Gallagher
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I was there that day, in fairness to Dye he didn’t have a lot of options, Mannerism was a very underrated mare.
Racing Caulfield Cup Day 2021 * All race day discussion in here *
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iluvparis
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Thanks shane
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He had the option of cutting the corner and still going out wide rather than run around the outside fence that would have saved a few lengths. Mannerism was a great mare but that doesnt mean Veandercross shouldnt have won easily!
Lip Gallagher
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Track was a heavy 9 minimum IMO, back before we graded tracks with that method but it was as a bog, I think it was R7 iirc so the inside lanes were cooked, to this day I don’t think he lost much ground considering he was in the best going, Mannerism just beat him and as you said she was no slouch, no one else beat him.
No issues with him coming wide in the straight for the better going, more that he was 15 wide for the last 1200m and lost 30L around the corner
have your thoughts changed now? I feel like she was pretty disappointing in the Epsom. Not like she has the excuses that she was in the wrong part of the track considering winner was outside her. Not entirely sure how she would've gone in a CC but she just seems unsuited in Sydney on likely wet tracks over the 1500-1600 range. You wouldn't want to have a Golden Eagle ticket with her I don't reckon.
iluvparis
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Impossible to say until she gets out to a trip again (if ever) - she might start getting beat further the further she goes up in distance. Maybe she is just not that good? Duais who was placed behind her in the Oaks looked pretty bog average Saturday too.
iluvparis
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Third acceptances - going to be desperate for poor Delphi (although looks a Herbert Power moral) but at least into an Emergency slot
I'd say Homesman, Collette (if not right) and KoL the most likely to come out to give him a slot.
I'd say Homesman, Collette (if not right) and KoL the most likely to come out to give him a slot.
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Whoever wins Herbert Power (Delphi or Floating Artist) will run the quinella I reckon.
iluvparis
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Floating Artist is nowhere near good enough and is absolutely poison - even if it wins on Saturday I'll be leaving out of everything. Not sure on what earth it should be HP fave over Delphi (unless they think the latter is not running).
iluvparis
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Throw in Montefilia for your first F4 - but they will be your top 4 in the market anyway - there is legit zero value left in the market now that I can see short of taking a punt on Duais bouncing back. (The $19 Delphi would be value if the fave wasn't a moral but no point wasting money on him to win and he is basically the same price place here as he is all in to win the Hebert Power so may as well just back him on Saturday)
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Very happy to leave Metrop form right out of it. Hasn’t been good enough for well over a decade
iluvparis
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Nah its relevant for a place/F4 in this kind of quality edition when you are talking a Naturalism/HP horses as second/third/4th faves - she was a much classier winner than your average metrop horse
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Nah fell in over Entente in a race where Zeyrek was well in the market. It’s not good enough and never is. Give me horses like Chapada and The Chosen One to bob up at the end of F4s at twice the price if you want to look for bigger returns
iluvparis
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those types would go around in a metrop at double figures and get beat without batting an eye. She is no inferior.
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She is no better either and half the price. It’s a terrible form race and always over bet
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Cannot script this stuff, Carried 55.5kg in a handicap as 4yo mare and dropping right down to near minimum. No surprise to see timeform give her 121. Get back to me when TCO or Chapada break the 115 mark.
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Congrats she found her level in a garbage handicap. Race has had no relevance in the real stuff for 16 years
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Just like Tatts cups and Hollindales... right?
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Mornington cup curse strikes again
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Different preps at different times. If you wind up aiming at a Metrop during the Spring then you are typically not up to it (and then get priced as if you are)
Bit different winning races by 7 and 12 lengths and a nose too
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2.25L Hollindale but that's besides the point, seems we have another that disregards weight carried on margins and assessing each race as they come rather then hur dur horse and race no good. Can change opinion on horses, I didn't think she was that good going in and was more unlikely than likely to stay but that performance gets her CC competitive if she holds (50-50 she holds IMO)
As far as I can tell she's set a weight carrying record in the race for at least 20 years+ vs WFA.
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Just a random stat to throw out there.
4 4yo's have won a metropolitan handicap since 2001.
2 winners in Railings, Tawqeet; your 2007 SP favourite Glencadam Gold and Montefilia, none of which carried more than Montefilia let alone the 2kg allowance vs WFA.
4 4yo's have won a metropolitan handicap since 2001.
2 winners in Railings, Tawqeet; your 2007 SP favourite Glencadam Gold and Montefilia, none of which carried more than Montefilia let alone the 2kg allowance vs WFA.
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Race was no good going in as usual and equally no good coming out. Its a field of NSW country cups horses. She meets a horse like Entente 2kg better in a CC for basically crossing the line together and that horse would be a genuine 80s chance. Would meet Harpo Marx at the same for beating him a length and what odds would he be in a CC?
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