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Racing Caulfield Cup 2025

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Ah12 said:
Thoughts on Deakin? Beat home Adelaide River and stronger through the line.
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Couldn't back him personally. He was marginally stronger through the line but not sure that counts for much when Adelaide River was put into it to win the race and tried to lead all the way. Sat on his back the whole way and took the entire straight to get past him. Adelaide River also has higher highs to be capable of putting in a run that could win which im not sure we have seen from Deakin
 

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The race looks like its lacking quality depthwise. Same as 2024? I think the last few Caulfield Cups have lacked depth, same with the Melbourne Cup too.
 
After doing the form, I have come up with Royal Supremecy for the Caulfield Cup. I think Royal Supremecy is a top 4 chance:

Form: Past 4 starts - 1121 ✅️

Age - Is a 5 YO (4YOs dominate — they’re fresh, on the rise, and historically the strongest age bracket. 5YOs are next followed closely by 6YOs. Less than 5 winners since 1991 have come from outside these 3 ages) ✅️

Sex - Gelding - Since 1991, 16 Geldings have won ✅️

Track - Caulfield - No starts ❌️

2400m - Yes - 2 starts: 1-0-1✅️

Weight - 52.5kg ✅️

Barrier - Ideal - barrier 6 ✅️

Trainer - Ciaron Maher, already won 2 Caulfield Cups ✅️

Jockey - Robbie Doolan - can ride a stayer ✅️

Last Start Winner/Placing: Yes ✅️

Track Condition - Good: 3 starts - 2-1-0 ✅️

Other Notes - Is a last start winner but that race was the G1 The Metropolitan (2400m), that form doesnt usually hold up in a Caulfield Cup❌️

I'd like to wish you all the best of luck if you're betting in the Caulfield Cup and best of luck if you're betting on the day in any other races.
 
Smokin Romans
of 13CAUL 17Sep22 2000m Heavy8 NATURALISM Group 3 $200,750 ($120,750) Ethan Brown 54kg Barrier 11 Rtg 95
2nd Uncle Bryn (GB) 54kg, 3rd Gold Trip (FR) 60kg 2:08.53 (600m 36.34), 0.75L, 2nd@800m, 2nd@400m, $9/$9/$8.50/$8
1st of 15FLEM 01Oct22 2000m Good3 TURNBULL Group 1 $1,002,100 ($602,100) Ethan Brown 55.5kg Barrier 5 Rtg 101
2nd Maximal (GB) 54.5kg, 3rd Young Werther (NZ) 54.5kg 2:02.23 (600m 33.52), 1.5L, 2nd@800m, 2nd@400m, $19/$19/$20/$21
7th of 18CAUL 15Oct22 2400m Soft6 CAUL CUP Group 1 $5,150,000 ($120,000) Ms Jamie Melham 51.5kg Barrier 5 Rtg 114
1st Durston (GB) 51.5kg, 2nd Gold Trip (FR) 57.5kg 2:33.68 (600m 35.76), 2.3L, 6th@800m, 6th@400m, $4/$4.20/$4/$3.90
Half Yours

f 16CAUL 20Sep25 2000m Good3 NATURALISM Group 3 $202,000 ($122,000) Ms Jamie Melham 54.5kg Barrier 2 Rtg 95
2nd Berkshire Breeze (IRE) 56kg, 3rd Grand Pierro 55kg 2:01.12 (600m 34.76), 3.5L, 5th@800m, 4th@400m, $2.20/$2.45/$2.50/$2.60
4th of 14FLEM 04Oct25 2000m Good3 TURNBULL Group 1 $755,645 ($33,750) Ms Jamie Melham 56kg Barrier 4 Rtg 100
1st Sir Delius (GB) 58kg, 2nd Antino (NZ) 59kg 2:02.82 (600m 33.85), 2.67L, 10th@800m, 11th@400m, $9.50/$10/$9.50/$10

Interesting comparison between Smokin Romans and Half Yours.

Both won the Naturalism with SR carrying 54 and SR beating a better field including Gold Trip and HY carrying 54.5 wins easily.

Both rate 95

SR went on a won the Turnbull 55.5 and HY runs 4th in a stronger Turnbull.
SR rates 101 and HY rates 100

SR runs favourite and runs 9th with 51.5 and HY is a short priced favourite at 2,80 ?/

SR was a 6yo with 23 starts going in the CC and HY is a 5yo with 13 starts

So even though HY does look the winner, a word warning when comparing both.


 
Optimistic Dog said:
Smokin Romans
of 13CAUL 17Sep22 2000m Heavy8 NATURALISM Group 3 $200,750 ($120,750) Ethan Brown 54kg Barrier 11 Rtg 95
2nd Uncle Bryn (GB) 54kg, 3rd Gold Trip (FR) 60kg 2:08.53 (600m 36.34), 0.75L, 2nd@800m, 2nd@400m, $9/$9/$8.50/$8
1st of 15FLEM 01Oct22 2000m Good3 TURNBULL Group 1 $1,002,100 ($602,100) Ethan Brown 55.5kg Barrier 5 Rtg 101
2nd Maximal (GB) 54.5kg, 3rd Young Werther (NZ) 54.5kg 2:02.23 (600m 33.52), 1.5L, 2nd@800m, 2nd@400m, $19/$19/$20/$21
7th of 18CAUL 15Oct22 2400m Soft6 CAUL CUP Group 1 $5,150,000 ($120,000) Ms Jamie Melham 51.5kg Barrier 5 Rtg 114
1st Durston (GB) 51.5kg, 2nd Gold Trip (FR) 57.5kg 2:33.68 (600m 35.76), 2.3L, 6th@800m, 6th@400m, $4/$4.20/$4/$3.90
Half Yours

f 16CAUL 20Sep25 2000m Good3 NATURALISM Group 3 $202,000 ($122,000) Ms Jamie Melham 54.5kg Barrier 2 Rtg 95
2nd Berkshire Breeze (IRE) 56kg, 3rd Grand Pierro 55kg 2:01.12 (600m 34.76), 3.5L, 5th@800m, 4th@400m, $2.20/$2.45/$2.50/$2.60
4th of 14FLEM 04Oct25 2000m Good3 TURNBULL Group 1 $755,645 ($33,750) Ms Jamie Melham 56kg Barrier 4 Rtg 100
1st Sir Delius (GB) 58kg, 2nd Antino (NZ) 59kg 2:02.82 (600m 33.85), 2.67L, 10th@800m, 11th@400m, $9.50/$10/$9.50/$10
Interesting comparison between Smokin Romans and Half Yours.

Both won the Naturalism with SR carrying 54 and SR beating a better field including Gold Trip and HY carrying 54.5 wins easily.

Both rate 95

SR went on a won the Turnbull 55.5 and HY runs 4th in a stronger Turnbull.
SR rates 101 and HY rates 100

SR runs favourite and runs 9th with 51.5 and HY is a short priced favourite at 2,80 ?/

SR was a 6yo with 23 starts going in the CC and HY is a 5yo with 13 starts

So even though HY does look the winner, a word warning when comparing both.

Click to expand...
I get the comparison but I think it's a very simplistic view of form.

Smokin' Romans was well exposed, and fluked a weak Turnbull getting a soft run in behind the lead.

Half Yours is a horse very much still on the up, who won the Naturalism is elite fashion & time.
He was highly unsuited in the Turnbull the way the race was run and was arguably the run of the race.

It's very easy to cherry pick form & arguments based on personal interpretation, as I might be here.
That's why it's the great game.
 
TBellicious said:
I get the comparison but I think it's a very simplistic view of form.

Smokin' Romans was well exposed, and fluked a weak Turnbull getting a soft run in behind the lead.

Half Yours is a horse very much still on the up, who won the Naturalism is elite fashion & time.
He was highly unsuited in the Turnbull the way the race was run and was arguably the run of the race.

It's very easy to cherry pick form & arguments based on personal interpretation, as I might be here.
That's why it's the great game.
Click to expand...
The ratings of both are very similar on first look I thought HY was a good thing but I think I will look a bit deeper making HY main bet with a saver at odds on a couple of others.
 

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I don't think the comparison is that far off the mark. Both had a huge spike in improvement through their Spring prep and think they will both end up being a case of right time right place rather than being anything special as we have seen a million times before
 
My main bet is looking like being Adelaide River I think. Getting out to far too good of a price and if the track is making it hard to run down the leaders which seems very possible he will be in a good position either leading or sitting in the first four.

I think the first 3 in the market are all too short to back so will play around them and hope first the best
 
Jugada said:
My main bet is looking like being Adelaide River I think. Getting out to far too good of a price and if the track is making it hard to run down the leaders which seems very possible he will be in a good position either leading or sitting in the first four.

I think the first 3 in the market are all too short to back so will play around them and hope first the best
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No love for Revelare ? ..
 
Revelare is like the trash version of Half Yours for me. The type that comes through the winter stuff into the C grade Vic staying races is rarely good enough
 

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