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Wallers made might be favourite
If AVD don't run
If AVD don't run
Racing Caulfield Cup Day 2020 * All race day discussion/Tips in here please*
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The George Main retrospectively taught us nothing. She was way ahead of schedule for first up. Flat runs en route to major goals are not uncommon or specifically bad when assessing future runs.
We had a huge overreaction on her price from first up to second up and then second up to third up in the other direction, huge pendulum swing retrospectively. She's around the mark I'm not sure she's good enough on dry/in the spring if it's wet I'd probably take her over AVD as fave. As it stands she's in a huge bunch chasing, Finche for instance was a touch better run IMO AND gets weight relief.
We had a huge overreaction on her price from first up to second up and then second up to third up in the other direction, huge pendulum swing retrospectively. She's around the mark I'm not sure she's good enough on dry/in the spring if it's wet I'd probably take her over AVD as fave. As it stands she's in a huge bunch chasing, Finche for instance was a touch better run IMO AND gets weight relief.
iluvparis
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Nah VE had every chance second up and was found wanting. Nice win in a bunch finished of cats on Saturday but it would be a brave man to suggest she is not lengths better wet.
Second up last prep she ran second to TAS WFA mile so absolutely zero excuses for the George Main defeat.
KingOfThePunt
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After she had gone poorly first up that prep. So she went poorly first up then better second up, then about the same third up then peaked fourth up.
This prep better first up then lesser second up then good again third up. Peak fourth up?
iluvparis
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I wouldn't say 4th over 1400 behind a flying Alizee-Dreamforce and Happy Clapper was a poor first up run at all.
She had zero excuses in the George Main and was beaten on her merits without excuses - it happens
You are looking for a random pattern that just isn't there.
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Blocked in top of straight and then tightened halfway down straight. Wins hands down if those two things didnt happen, in a photo finish if only 1 happened. But yeah zero excuses..
KingOfThePunt
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I think there was a reason she was beaten. The track was very quick in the end, which as you said is not her thing, and a mile is too short (especially on a quick track).
iluvparis
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Yes - which is what everyone has been saying for the last two weeks and why most think her best chance in the Cups is if it rains.
KingOfThePunt
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yes I agree, and if you think she’s a wet tracker too then how can have “zero excuses” on a hard track?
iluvparis
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Because not liking a frim track is not an excuse - it just means she is not good enough unless other horses are brought back to her level by a wet track.
KingOfThePunt
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So Black Caviar suffering her first defeat by trying her hand at a steeplechase event means she had no excuses?
iluvparis
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Correct - not being able to jump is not an excuse - it just means you are a s**t steeplechaser.
Solid analogy by the way.
iluvparis
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Just so you understand 'no excuses' means you can't just ignore it from a form perspective.
For example - a horse like VE is going to start much shorter in a CC if its wet than its dry. That's just doing form. You don't just ignore the George Main run when pricing her up because it was a dry track.
For example - a horse like VE is going to start much shorter in a CC if its wet than its dry. That's just doing form. You don't just ignore the George Main run when pricing her up because it was a dry track.
KingOfThePunt
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you don’t ignore it, no. You place it in context. The run of a horse who is at her best on soft 2400m, and then was quick 1600m. That (and likely not being fully fit yet) is why she didn’t perform at her best. Hence, they are the reasons she didn’t go to her best. You might say they are the things which “excused” her from not going to her best.
iluvparis
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Yea the fully fit bit is just garbage guesswork though - given she won either side of that run seems solidly made up.
The only excuse she had in the George Main was she wasn't good enough - it happens. You can label it however you want.
You’re new here ... you’ll soon learn arguing with Paris is like arguing with your missus... you never win or you just stop arguing
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I think after Black Caviar and Winx, Australians have become accustomed to the best horses in the land winning every start with ease. They aren't machines, they will lose from time to time. This is not directed at anyone just a general comment which I have been thinking about over the last few weeks as I sit back and blow my money on the Rothfire's, Nature Strip's & VE's of the world.
KingOfThePunt
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Not sure if just trolling Paris, but yeah nah on all counts. Wasn't blocked at any point considering the horse in front of her was going faster and the only tightening was when SOTS breathed on her to push her out of the way cos it was going panels better
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It’s easy to say she was good after she won her next start. If she went poorly in the Turnbull everyone would turn around and say I told you she was shot after the GM.
Truth is she was plain and it didn’t matter, she was able to come on enough to do things wrong and win the Turnbull in a moderate fashion.
Truth is she was plain and it didn’t matter, she was able to come on enough to do things wrong and win the Turnbull in a moderate fashion.
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Needed time to unwind, was making ground again late despite having to re-accelerate. Best horse in the George Main.
iluvparis
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Yup - and we don't need to make excuses for them when they do. Sometimes they just aren't good enough on the day plain and simple. VE is a better horse wet than dry - that's just who she is.
Remember that Saintly 1996 prep I posted a while back - had twitter been around then he would have been fair dinkum crucified on multiple occasions.
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