Cerra

[Meteoric Rise]

He re-signed the extra 2 years on the same day he debuted, so its doubtful he is on $450k.

If GWS have fallen on cap problems, I think its far more realistic they will move on from Coniglio in a similar way the Pies did with Treloar. That entire situation with him is a massive shadow falling over the club -the decision to re-sign him as captain has proven to be the wrong one. That teams captain is Toby Greene - it will be incredibly hard for Cog to be stood down as cap and play on - I would put more money on Cog ending up at Carlton for a trade that includes SFA in picks and GWS paying a portion of his contract over the next couple of years

Well to give a guide….Aiden Bonar who went at a similar draft pick to Green, was traded out to North for essentially a pick around 40 in the draft.

Read about it here:

Three Victorian clubs circling opportunity starved young Giant Aiden Bonar on deadline day

Three Victorian clubs targeting opportunity starved young Giant

www.foxsports.com.au

But the most relevant bit:

"Bonar signed a two-year extension before he had even played a game and is locked in at the Giants until the end of 2021.”

It was commonly reported at that time Bonar was given away for such a low pick to dump his salary - around $450k.

It appears obvious GWS have followed a similar path with Green. Other circumstances may differ so they may be able to retain him, or given he will attract much better draft picks than Bonar they may be happy to lose his contract.

 

[Oshka]

What are you basing that on?

Top 5 pick a few years ago. 70+ games AFL experience with linear improvement in his game continuously. In a re-draft of his season he still would be a top 10 pick, arguably still a top 5 pending on what you value more.

I really don't see any logic to how anyone thinks he would only be worth a pick 18 etc, unless we are saying this draft is 3 or 4 times deeper than the draft he was taken in - which i don't think is true

Based on this - what do you think RCD or CCJ are worth? Surely far far less. A late 2nd - early 3rd?

Would take Naughton, Kelly, Stephenson, Balta, Allen, LDU, Brayshaw, Bailey, Ryan, Taylor, Fritsch, Starcevich and Baker ahead of him.

 

[_RT_]

I think both players are pretty much at their final physical size but Green has an advantage being 2 years less in the AFL and having a bigger scope for improvement not only with his current position but also additional positions he can learn to play like fwd and has already shown some rucking ability
if i could take either of the 2 players im certainly taking Green every time.

The first part of your post regarding Richmond spending extra on a player like Macca , If Richmond were in Freo position i dont think anybody would dump chicken sh!t on the driveway for getting an extra pick 10-12 for $300k cap space. But the 1st part of your post about already having the 2 picks from Richmond - I bloody hope not as thats when im driving the sh*t truck to dump

The 2 first refers to getting one of ours and their own first, which then opens them up to trading out future firsts the next couple of years.

It's not just $300k it's $1m over 3 years, it's the spot on the list that you're locked in to for 3 years. For mine they'd be better off with KMac at $350-400k and then Jordan Clark at the same amount and get in 2 ready to go players that add more depth to the list alongside 2 first round kids.

 

[TheGhostOfMaurice]

He re-signed the extra 2 years on the same day he debuted, so its doubtful he is on $450k.

If GWS have fallen on cap problems, I think its far more realistic they will move on from Coniglio in a similar way the Pies did with Treloar. That entire situation with him is a massive shadow falling over the club -the decision to re-sign him as captain has proven to be the wrong one. That teams captain is Toby Greene - it will be incredibly hard for Cog to be stood down as cap and play on - I would put more money on Cog ending up at Carlton for a trade that includes SFA in picks and GWS paying a portion of his contract over the next couple of years

Isn’t Cognlio a west Aussie?
Because freo are about the only club that could afford his contract if lobb and Cerra leave.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Rioli2Rioli]

The 2 first refers to getting one of ours and their own first, which then opens them up to trading out future firsts the next couple of years.

It's not just $300k it's $1m over 3 years, it's the spot on the list that you're locked in to for 3 years. For mine they'd be better off with KMac at $350-400k and then Jordan Clark at the same amount and get in 2 ready to go players that add more depth to the list alongside 2 first round kids.

But you see they have ample spots on their list and will most likely delist 8 players this year
Cap space is not a problem a for fremantle but draft picks are. They dont have quality picks to replace players like Hill , Valenti and another 5-6 players that will be delisted.

They also have so much cap space opening up with the players like Blakely , Cerra , Lobb , Conca etc leaving
an extra $300k a year means nothing and this type of thing is commonly done with lower clubs effectively taking salary dumps in return for talent.

They need more picks as that would be priority and good picks not later picks

 

[RJK Tiger]

Would take Naughton, Kelly, Stephenson, Balta, Allen, LDU, Brayshaw, Bailey, Ryan, Taylor, Fritsch, Starcevich and Baker ahead of him.

LOL, we could have got Stephenson last year for 2 bags of peanuts and no one ****ing here wanted him. Your list is very subjective though, I think the bracket i gave of 5-10 is pretty accurate. Even by your own hater estimate - he is going around pick 12 - which is a mid 1st.

So just to underline my confusion though....you reckon to get a guaranteed hit player with a pick 12 in the draft, that you get 4 years of scouting at AFL level - a pick 12 that you also have the benefit of over 70 AFL games of development and time put into his career..... is worth a late first rounder....

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

i mean

worse case scenario we get him,he never plays a game and we win 3 flags.

just like yarran

Peter Bell doing his best Silvagni impression

 

[RJK Tiger]

Well to give a guide….Aiden Bonar who went at a similar draft pick to Green, was traded out to North for essentially a pick around 40 in the draft.

Read about it here:

Three Victorian clubs circling opportunity starved young Giant Aiden Bonar on deadline day

Three Victorian clubs targeting opportunity starved young Giant

www.foxsports.com.au

But the most relevant bit:

"Bonar signed a two-year extension before he had even played a game and is locked in at the Giants until the end of 2021.”

It was commonly reported at that time Bonar was given away for such a low pick to dump his salary - around $450k.

It appears obvious GWS have followed a similar path with Green. Other circumstances may differ so they may be able to retain him, or given he will attract much better draft picks than Bonar they may be happy to lose his contract.

Not saying they haven't as no one knows what his contract is - but I still reckon its unlikely they did sign him to $450k. The fact they did if for Bonar and they ended up having to salary dump him for peanuts in 2019 makes it even more the unlikely they would have then re-signed Green to a similar contract before playing a senior game. They would have learned their lesson come the re-signing of Green 6 months later.

Point is, there is **** all smoke and tea-leaves for Tom Green moving on. The Richmond connection is there, but I can't see him moving until this contract is over, or at least in its final year.

The idea we are choosing between Cerra & Green is mental. The reality is, we are not choosing anything - we are just waiting to see if Cerra chooses us.

Green is more a long term "watch this space". If he is as good as we think he is, we will need to plan to have 2 decent first rounders in 2023 & 24. GWS dont **** about when it comes to trades., they are used to "good picks" & wont blink at a lowball - they know how to trade & have. the luxury of being spoilt with over a decade of great picks that more often than not, "hit"

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Not saying they haven't as no one knows what his contract is - but I still reckon its unlikely they did sign him to $450k. The fact they did if for Bonar and they ended up having to salary dump him for peanuts in 2019 makes it even more the unlikely they would have then re-signed Green to a similar contract before playing a senior game. They would have learned their lesson come the re-signing of Green 6 months later.

Point is, there is fu** all smoke and tea-leaves for Tom Green moving on. The Richmond connection is there, but I can't see him moving until this contract is over, or at least in its final year.

The idea we are choosing between Cerra & Green is mental. The reality is, we are not choosing anything - we are just waiting to see if Cerra chooses us.

Green is more a long term "watch this space". If he is as good as we think he is, we will need to plan to have 2 decent first rounders in 2023 & 24. GWS dont fu** about when it comes to trades., they are used to "good picks" & wont blink at a lowball - they know how to trade & have. the luxury of being spoilt with over a decade of great picks that more often than not, "hit"

There are a some things I would ask you to consider from your response here.

First, these young guns taken with high draft picks have managers. Why would a high draft pick sign for extra years past his initial two years mandatory minimum contract before he has played a senior game unless he is being offered a strong contract?

GWS are known to do this in order to guard against their best draftees being picked off after their first two seasons. As I understand it, it is not a strategy that started or ended with Bonar, it is a strategy they have used with player after player. It is key to their overall list management strategy. So I don’t think it is a matter of them "learning their lesson" with Bonar. They unloaded Bonar as he was surplus to their needs at that time and they wanted to use the money for other purposes, so they salary dumped him.

Now we don’t know about whether Giants are now over-committed or not, so carrying Green and other youngsters on good coin may not be a worry for them right now. But especially with Kelly exercising his option, there has to be a chance they are under the pump. If they are under the pump then unloading a youngster who can return decent draft capital could possibly appeal to them.

The other part of your post I would query is your claim that GWS won’t blink at a lowball offer, and will demand good draft picks. Haven’t they salary dumped players one after the other for below their market value in terms of picks?

Patton, Scully, Bonar, Bruce, O’Rourke, Jaksch, Whiley, Frost, Hampton, Townsend, Lamb, Phillips, Plowman, Sumner, Bugg, McCarthy, Steele, Ahern, Stewart, Hoskin-Elliott, Marchbank, Pickett, Dev Smith, Wilson, Kennedy, Setterfield, Lobb, Langdon, Caldwell.

These are most of the guys they have traded out since 2013. Loads of those were salary dumps and did not return market value in terms of draft picks. And there is a lot of them. Even if you look at just the ones who have been picked regularly or achieved something significant at the new clubs and what they were traded for:

Aidan Bonar - roughly pick 40 value
Josh Bruce - pick 48
Lachie Plowman - they actually gave up draft pick value to dump him and three others Lamb, Phillips, Sumner.
Jack Steele - mid second rounder
James Stewart - pick in low 70’s
Will Hoskin-Elliott - pick in the late 20’s
Dev Smith - roughly the value of about a early second rounder
Nathan Wilson - early second rounder
Rory Lobb - roughly low 20’s pick value
Jacob Townsend - pick 70

So I think it is all dependant on their circumstances but I think you will find almost all of these players above were contracted to GWS on generous contracts when they were traded out. That is the position Green is likely to be in - on a contract for the next two years worth more than his likely output. Now he is tracking better than most of those other players above so you expect to cough up something decent for him. But if he wanted to come to Richmond and Richmond were prepared to take on his contract and perhaps cough up some good draft picks, I don’t think it is out of the question at all.

I think I would be happy to hand over Richmond’s 2021 and 2022 first rounders for him, maybe getting something like a second rounder back. And I think the club might also be prepared to pay along those lines. There is really no need to low ball GWS if Green is keen on coming to us.

 

[Oshka]

LOL, we could have got Stephenson last year for 2 bags of peanuts and no one ******* here wanted him. Your list is very subjective though, I think the bracket i gave of 5-10 is pretty accurate. Even by your own hater estimate - he is going around pick 12 - which is a mid 1st.

So just to underline my confusion though....you reckon to get a guaranteed hit player with a pick 12 in the draft, that you get 4 years of scouting at AFL level - a pick 12 that you also have the benefit of over 70 AFL games of development and time put into his career..... is worth a late first rounder....

No one wanted Stephenson? Don’t speak on my behalf please. Would’ve taken him in an instant.

And you need to count again. I listed 13 players who I would take before him, which means we would use pick 14 on him. That is a late first.

Cerra is a dime a dozen midfielder who is extremely vanilla. He has a neat disposal and can accumulate the ball but I would be confident with finding a better player with a top ten pick in this draft.

Do you actually watch Cerra play or are you a stat merchant like RT?

 

[Jungle Noise]

Would you be ok with giving one of our first rounders for Adam Cerra?

I would look at bringing in another 1 round , then use that for Cerra. We must take advantage of our 2 first rounders. Its been a long time we have had a strong hand in draft.

 

[Jungle Noise]

Those people talking about straight swap for bolton are on crack.

Bolton looked like a world beater till he broke his hand, and rumor is hes been playing injured.

if he didnt have any hunger hed have simply not given anything all year, this clearly wasnt the case

Bolton in form is in out top4 most important player on our list.

 

[fargothegreat]

GWS immediately signing their top draftees for multiple years on $$ they can't say no to is all part of their player retention strategy. Win the player over early with cash, then get them settled in the playing group so they will stay long term for less.

They generally keep the ones they want to, but obviously didn't plan for a covid-reduced cap when they signed Kelly to such a reckless deal. Someone will have to fall out now surely, and we need to be there to catch them.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

GWS immediately signing their top draftees for multiple years on $$ they can't say no to is all part of their player retention strategy. Win the player over early with cash, then get them settled in the playing group so they will stay long term for less.

They generally keep the ones they want to, but obviously didn't plan for a covid-reduced cap when they signed Kelly to such a reckless deal. Someone will have to fall out now surely, and we need to be there to catch them.

Would love to be a fly on the wall at our Trade & Draft strategy meetings.
Is something Brewing?

 

[YeOldTiger]

Would love to be a fly on the wall at our Trade & Draft strategy meetings.
Is something Brewing?

Yep, coffee and monte carlos !

 

[Phar Ace]

Everyone's mate Tommy Brown is saying it is now down to Freo or Carlton for young Cerra - think I'd rather live in Perth than play for Carlton - and that's saying something!

 

[_RT_]

No one wanted Stephenson? Don’t speak on my behalf please. Would’ve taken him in an instant.

And you need to count again. I listed 13 players who I would take before him, which means we would use pick 14 on him. That is a late first.

Cerra is a dime a dozen midfielder who is extremely vanilla. He has a neat disposal and can accumulate the ball but I would be confident with finding a better player with a top ten pick in this draft.

Do you actually watch Cerra play or are you a stat merchant like RT?

LOL thinking that because you name 13 players you'd prefer over Cerra that it equates to using pick 14 on him.

I'd like Tom Green but there is about 50 players I'd take before him, so does that mean we get him for pick 51.

 

[Thrillhouse!]

Everyone's mate Tommy Brown is saying it is now down to Freo or Carlton for young Cerra - think I'd rather live in Perth than play for Carlton - and that's saying something!

Yea Tom morris reporting we have pulled out of chase. Hopefully now Kelly has signed, something at gws has changed our mind

On SM-G781B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Sir_Rancelot]

It's because Murphy retired so they must have upped their offer to Cerra.

 

[Bojangles17]

No one wanted Stephenson? Don’t speak on my behalf please. Would’ve taken him in an instant.

And you need to count again. I listed 13 players who I would take before him, which means we would use pick 14 on him. That is a late first.

Cerra is a dime a dozen midfielder who is extremely vanilla. He has a neat disposal and can accumulate the ball but I would be confident with finding a better player with a top ten pick in this draft.

Do you actually watch Cerra play or are you a stat merchant like RT?

Not at $600,000on last years woeful form, the only club that was interested was this years wooden spooner so don’t come at us with 2021 hindsight on a 2020 decision

 

[sante]

It's because Murphy retired so they must have upped their offer to Cerra.

He was always going to retire

 

[tigers12]

I went through the list of clubs and their draft picks that they will hold I would say we would have the best draft hand 4 picks inside 30 is unreal

 

[Not Important]

@tommorris32
1h
Adam Cerra's options have narrowed: It's Fremantle or Carlton right now. A decision is 2-3 weeks away.

Trade blogging at 1pm

 

[Oshka]

LOL thinking that because you name 13 players you'd prefer over Cerra that it equates to using pick 14 on him.

I'd like Tom Green but there is about 50 players I'd take before him, so does that mean we get him for pick 51.

Surely you’re not this stupid?

 

[db26]

Pass better for us maybe in to one of the gws midfielders I reckon.