Cerra

[_RT_]

Would love to see a list of the 50 from the same draft you’d take over Tom Green

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Bonar was and is a sh*t campaigner though. No wonder they wanted to dump him

He wasn’t tracking so well at GWS his first two seasons but I think he has shown some good signs at North, especially in the backline…..in between a wretched run of injuries. He has a decent frame and doesn’t jump out of the way of oncoming traffic. Surprised if he doesn’t make a reasonable career.

My main point with him though was he would have been traded for a much better pick bar GWS needing to dump his salary. Green looks a much better player at this point but it is possible some of the same factors that applied to Bonar may apply to Green in the event of Green requesting a trade.

 

[Rich01]

Cerra will end up a Prestia type player (without the injuries) for whoever gets him. A very good player.

He would be straight into our side and improve it immensely. However I believe our biggest need is more of an inside mid to replace the Cotchin role.

If that means we have a list of Crouch, Narkle, Taranto, Narkle, PDow, Green, Hopper to work through (some obviously higher priority than others) we are on the right track.

A key defender would also be good. Perhaps we could look at a Tom Green

12

Tom Green

Age

24

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

3star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

5star

/ Sam Taylor

15

Sam Taylor

Age

26

Ht

198cm

Wt

95kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

5.4

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.1

4star

MG

130.5

2star

D

8.0

2star

K

2.5

1star

HB

5.5

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.5

3star

MG

60.8

1star

D

8.6

3star

K

3.0

1star

HB

5.6

4star

M

1.2

2star

T

2.8

5star

MG

110.8

2star

double trade with GWS?

One can only dream.
We do have picks to make something happen, and I feel from us dropping out of the Cerra race we are fairly confident. Time will tell.

 

[Bojangles17]

Cerra will end up a Prestia type player (without the injuries) for whoever gets him. A very good player.

He would be straight into our side and improve it immensely. However I believe our biggest need is more of an inside mid to replace the Cotchin role.

If that means we have a list of Crouch, Narkle, Taranto, Narkle, PDow, Green, Hopper to work through (some obviously higher priority than others) we are on the right track.

A key defender would also be good. Perhaps we could look at a Tom Green / Sam Taylor double trade with GWS?

One can only dream.
We do have picks to make something happen, and I feel from us dropping out of the Cerra race we are fairly confident. Time will tell.

Cerra doesn’t play anything like Prestia, I agree though we must be clear on our plans to drop out this early

 

[Rich01]

Cerra doesn’t play anything like Prestia, I agree though we must be clear on our plans to drop out this early

Cerra is a transition mid. So is Dion. Wins a mix of contested and uncontested second possie from the clearance to distribute.

Contested/Uncontested ball ratio same as Dion. Wins a similar amount of stoppages and kicks into 50 (based on similar possession count as well).

Both cover a great deal of ground although Adam’s metres gained suggests he takes the longer option (his kick to handball ratio compared to Dion is reflective of this).

They both play a similar position, but could both play in the same side.

Our need for a Cotch replacement is much greater.

 

[RJK Tiger]

There are a some things I would ask you to consider from your response here.

First, these young guns taken with high draft picks have managers. Why would a high draft pick sign for extra years past his initial two years mandatory minimum contract before he has played a senior game unless he is being offered a strong contract?

Security, considering he extended his contract before even playing a single game. . Its also not that uncommon at all. I probably counter this argument with 'why would he re-sign on a 2 year extension if he plans to **** off to Richmond because his Grandpa played for them 60 years ago.

GWS are known to do this in order to guard against their best draftees being picked off after their first two seasons. As I understand it, it is not a strategy that started or ended with Bonar, it is a strategy they have used with player after player. It is key to their overall list management strategy. So I don’t think it is a matter of them "learning their lesson" with Bonar. They unloaded Bonar as he was surplus to their needs at that time and they wanted to use the money for other purposes, so they salary dumped him.

Now we don’t know about whether Giants are now over-committed or not, so carrying Green and other youngsters on good coin may not be a worry for them right now. But especially with Kelly exercising his option, there has to be a chance they are under the pump. If they are under the pump then unloading a youngster who can return decent draft capital could possibly appeal to them.

The other part of your post I would query is your claim that GWS won’t blink at a lowball offer, and will demand good draft picks. Haven’t they salary dumped players one after the other for below their market value in terms of picks?

Patton, Scully, Bonar, Bruce, O’Rourke, Jaksch, Whiley, Frost, Hampton, Townsend, Lamb, Phillips, Plowman, Sumner, Bugg, McCarthy, Steele, Ahern, Stewart, Hoskin-Elliott, Marchbank, Pickett, Dev Smith, Wilson, Kennedy, Setterfield, Lobb, Langdon, Caldwell.

These are most of the guys they have traded out since 2013. Loads of those were salary dumps and did not return market value in terms of draft picks. And there is a lot of them. Even if you look at just the ones who have been picked regularly or achieved something significant at the new clubs and what they were traded for:

Aidan Bonar - roughly pick 40 value
Josh Bruce - pick 48
Lachie Plowman - they actually gave up draft pick value to dump him and three others Lamb, Phillips, Sumner.
Jack Steele - mid second rounder
James Stewart - pick in low 70’s
Will Hoskin-Elliott - pick in the late 20’s
Dev Smith - roughly the value of about a early second rounder
Nathan Wilson - early second rounder
Rory Lobb - roughly low 20’s pick value
Jacob Townsend - pick 70

So I think it is all dependant on their circumstances but I think you will find almost all of these players above were contracted to GWS on generous contracts when they were traded out. That is the position Green is likely to be in - on a contract for the next two years worth more than his likely output. Now he is tracking better than most of those other players above so you expect to cough up something decent for him. But if he wanted to come to Richmond and Richmond were prepared to take on his contract and perhaps cough up some good draft picks, I don’t think it is out of the question at all.

I think I would be happy to hand over Richmond’s 2021 and 2022 first rounders for him, maybe getting something like a second rounder back. And I think the club might also be prepared to pay along those lines. There is really no need to low ball GWS if Green is keen on coming to us.

We have no idea what his contact looks like. To say a strategy they used a few years ago is proof of some intel of what he is getting paid - its just not accurate - its all just guess work & if it was a strategy created to "hold onto young talent" - then its a miserable one. They have lost Jeremy Cameron, Dylan Shiel, Adam Treloar,, Devon Smith, Jack Steele, Aidan Corr, Zac Williams, Nathan Wilson, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Caleb Marchbank, John Patton, Tom Boyd, Caldwell. Their strategy of overpaying rookies has basically just lead them to losing a majority of their top-end talent. It would be mental if they were continuing with that

Mainly though, I just don't see anyone but Richmond supporters saying he is interested in leaving. I definitely don't see GWS fans saying he should go, or wants to go. Its not really reported anywhere except for Caro who even said it was a romantic speculation at best. He signed a new contract committing to the club even before he played his first game ... You might as well say we should go after Walsh because Carlton just overpayed Cripps & McGovern etc.

I have no doubt that Richmond are interested in him though and have asked the question ( & got a pretty flat answer ), & i have no doubt Tom Green's management more than happy for it to be known Richmond, his families club, have strong interest in their client. Getting yourself a juicy contract extension elsewhere on having "strong roots in Richmond" is an age old strategy.

Ultimately, the only player available this off-season to us, is Cerra....& new reports say that ain't happening. Seems more likely now the club was holding interest in Cerra as a back up plan if Bolton didn't re-sign. With Bolton signed up, the club is all of a sudden "not keen". Could have been smoke and mirrors on our end, a "back up plan" - or purely Boltons contract and Cerra's demands have made it impossible for us to pursue it further. I dare say the club still "wants" Cerra - but the club can't afford the luxury.

All of that news though just adds more sense to why us getting Tom Green appears to be pie in the sky stuff until 2023

 

[Bojangles17]

Cerra is a transition mid. So is Dion. Wins a mix of contested and uncontested second possie from the clearance to distribute.

Contested/Uncontested ball ratio same as Dion. Wins a similar amount of stoppages and kicks into 50 (based on similar possession count as well).

Both cover a great deal of ground although Adam’s metres gained suggests he takes the longer option (his kick to handball ratio compared to Dion is reflective of this).

They both play a similar position, but could both play in the same side.

Our need for a Cotch replacement is much greater.

I would have been happy to have him however I’m more pleased if indeed we use our first r draft picks at the draft

 

[RJK Tiger]

I wonder where all this leaves the rumours about Tom Mitchell?

 

[Bojangles17]

I wonder where all this leaves the rumours about Tom Mitchell?

I’d part with a r2 if haw paid 50% of wage or whatever worked, wouldnt want to split with a r1 for a 29yo

 

[JackNah_8]

Fox footy at 7pm confirmed that Richmond aren't interested in cerra anymore

 

[tropicaltiger]

Cerra doesn’t play anything like Prestia, I agree though we must be clear on our plans to drop out this early

just got bolts for a great deal.....no way would we insult bolts and his management by offering cerra 150k a year more.

 

[TheGhostOfMaurice]

Fox footy at 7pm confirmed that Richmond aren't interested in cerra anymore

That’s because Tic Toc Morris works for Fox Footy.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[partycorolla]

Are we closing this thread until we hear anything more?

 

[TheGhostOfMaurice]

Are we closing this thread until we hear anything more?

Till Wednesday night I guess.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Meteoric Rise]

We have no idea what his contact looks like. To say a strategy they used a few years ago is proof of some intel of what he is getting paid - its just not accurate - its all just guess work & if it was a strategy created to "hold onto young talent" - then its a miserable one. They have lost Jeremy Cameron, Dylan Shiel, Adam Treloar,, Devon Smith, Jack Steele, Aidan Corr, Zac Williams, Nathan Wilson, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Caleb Marchbank, John Patton, Tom Boyd, Caldwell. Their strategy of overpaying rookies has basically just lead them to losing a majority of their top-end talent. It would be mental if they were continuing with that

Mainly though, I just don't see anyone but Richmond supporters saying he is interested in leaving. I definitely don't see GWS fans saying he should go, or wants to go. Its not really reported anywhere except for Caro who even said it was a romantic speculation at best. He signed a new contract committing to the club even before he played his first game ... You might as well say we should go after Walsh because Carlton just overpayed Cripps & McGovern etc.

I have no doubt that Richmond are interested in him though and have asked the question ( & got a pretty flat answer ), & i have no doubt Tom Green's management more than happy for it to be known Richmond, his families club, have strong interest in their client. Getting yourself a juicy contract extension elsewhere on having "strong roots in Richmond" is an age old strategy.

Ultimately, the only player available this off-season to us, is Cerra....& new reports say that ain't happening. Seems more likely now the club was holding interest in Cerra as a back up plan if Bolton didn't re-sign. With Bolton signed up, the club is all of a sudden "not keen". Could have been smoke and mirrors on our end, a "back up plan" - or purely Boltons contract and Cerra's demands have made it impossible for us to pursue it further. I dare say the club still "wants" Cerra - but the club can't afford the luxury.

All of that news though just adds more sense to why us getting Tom Green appears to be pie in the sky stuff until 2023

I don’t think we are too far apart on this. Both of us clearly believe Green would be a good get both for his ability but also his very strong family connection to the club.

You believe he goes nowhere until his contract is up and then he may be gettable. I believe that GWS having traded out piles of contracted players in the past tells us this may not be the case. So that is where we differ.

I would just note, Giants have Ward(nearing the end,) Coniglio, Taranto, Hopper, Green, de Boer(nearing the end,) and I think Shipley as inside mid options, and have been trialling Daniels and Ash in there in recent weeks. They also have a fortune committed to two wingers Kelly and Whitfield as well and Greene also on a big agreement. I think their dream would be to give Coniglio free to a good home if someone would take his contract…good luck with that. So there is a realistic chance they have to lose one of these guys, and they cannot force contracted players out. So this is my thinking with Green, of the contracted players, he is probably the one with the most obvious place he might want to be. Giants also have a great draft hand this year and could no doubt grab another gun inside mid prospect if they so choose. Not saying Green leaving it is probable, just possible….if not, then one of their other guys might be gettable, like Hopper or Taranto, and it seems the club might be putting some work into this.

On the question of us having no idea what Green’s contract looks like I think if you said we cannot be certain then your statement would make more sense. I think joining a few plausible dots gives us a very good idea what his contract looks like. In any event, I would be pretty surprised if Richmond wasn’t well across his contract by now.

Your assessment that if they are using this strategy to retain young talent then it is failing miserably because a long list of talented players who started at GWS are now playing at other clubs…I don’t think that stands up to reason once you consider all factors. They simply have had access to so much top end talent, through their start up draft and pre-draft terms, through the country's most lucrative academy areas and through the draft, that there was never any possible chance they could retain all or even most of them within the salary cap. Almost all of the players you list above did at least 4 seasons at GWS, I would wager the first 4 seasons contracts would look very similar to Bonar’s and very similar to Green and others currently on their books, varying slightly in $$$’s due to perceived differences in ability. The success or otherwise of a list management strategy cannot be measured simply in the talent you have lost as you are seeking to do. A list management strategy is successful to a decent extent if you end up with a well stocked and talented list and this has basically never not been the case for GWS. How many teams have won more games of footy than the Giants since say 2015? It wouldn’t be many, so clearly their list management strategy is working to some extent despite all the defections.

Our very own list management doyen Mopsy thinks the triple Premiership Richmond list was built by poor list management because “look at all the failed picks.” Fortunately for us you don’t run out onto the park in a Grand Final with all your failed picks, only your successful ones. Giants would have known they could only accommodate so much talent within the cap, so their strategy would have always taken account of that.

Why do the players sign these deals? Well, you are spot on, security. Once signed, nothing changes whether they are traded or not. So a player with it in the back of his mind to possibly defect at some point may still sign the extension, because it guarantees him $900k he may not otherwise receive. However the smaller the extension is, the less secure it will make the player feel and therefore the less likelihood he will sign it. So I am doubting a guy like Green is signing a 2 x $250k extension before he played a game for eg, that would be pretty foolish when he could back himself to have two good years and get much better offers elsewhere.

Anyway, all hypothetical, you are ruling it out, I am not, I think it is one of a big range of possibilities open. It looks pretty clear Richmond are out there making enquiries and also clear they need to target players who might attract smaller wages in their earlier years at Tigerland.

 

[Lord of the Wings]

Fox footy at 7pm confirmed that Richmond aren't interested in cerra anymore

Thanks Lunch you overpaid Gumby.

 

[Tanski]

Thanks Lunch you overpaid Gumby.

Short memory?

 

[sante]

Can’t see how these rumours aren’t true, I guess we decided not to go for him.

 

[TheGhostOfMaurice]

Can’t see how these rumours aren’t true, I guess we decided not to go for him.

That’s where Tic toc got his scoop. From


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Mr Magic]

Would we trade with North for pick one to get Jason Horne?

We have a few picks.

Twoomey and others discussed North possibly trading pick one. They will be down for a while, might be looking for other targets and fear they lose Horne to SA eventually.

When Jason Horne reaches free agency we could trade him to Port or AFC if he wants. We may even just let him go, we might be at the ned of our window and get a good compo pick.

That way AFL get to see Horne as a youngster in the important games and then for SA clubs if it suits him.

Hes playing senior SANFL so he can help us in 2022

 

[Mr Magic]

That’s where Tic toc got his scoop. From


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

I can see Cerra staying at Freo for two more or so. it gives him some options to make a better decision when its more important

 

[RJK Tiger]

I’d part with a r2 if haw paid 50% of wage or whatever worked, wouldnt want to split with a r1 for a 29yo

Yeah i think that is about where i am at with it as well, we might have to try and trade our 2nd rounder up 4 or 5 picks,

Or we trade them our 2nd rounder + Caddy & we pay most, if not Mitchells whole contract. With them taking on Caddys contract we can possibly afford it - i imagine from next year on, our cap issues will shrink as the golden era retires. I think that is a pretty fair deal for both teams. Caddy is still a 28 y.o 2 x premiership player who can provide you leadership and quality play on a cheaper, expiring contract. I actually think Dimma has been bloody hard on Caddy - for him to be performing as well as he has & still not get a game when we are so ravaged by injury & our pressure forwards were tragically out of form - Caddy was pretty hard done by in my opinion. He deserves to go somewhere that wants what he can offer, which is still a lot.

Another option is we can trade them the Cats 1st rounder, our 2nd rounder , our 3rd rounder+ Caddy for Mitchell & their 2nd rounder & 3rd rounder. It would essentially mean we make the same deal & we drop down a few picks between 16-20, roughly, but we move up 4 places on 2nd & 3rd rounds. It would mean we take 4 picks in the top 50 still, possibly 5 if we end up trading someone else like CCJ, Aaarts etc That would be the absolute edge of what i would give up & realistically is about as fair for both teams. Mitchell could seriously make us elite again for 1 or 2 years - I certainly think Dimma will be pretty convinced that the future of explosive footy is "Clearance Ball".

 

[RJK Tiger]

Can’t see how these rumours aren’t true, I guess we decided not to go for him.

just a hunch but i think it has more to do with Bolton re-signing. Maybe Cerra was our "plan B" OR with the discounted rate he accepted, it made Cerra's salary demands untenable.

I think with Cerra gone, the Tom Mitchell chances are very high. Bolton took a discount to stay for a team that can contend - we will need to improve in the midfield dramatically, immediately for that to happen

 

[Karp3_dm]

Would we trade with North for pick one to get Jason Horne?

We have a few picks.

Twoomey and others discussed North possibly trading pick one. They will be down for a while, might be looking for other targets and fear they lose Horne to SA eventually.

When Jason Horne reaches free agency we could trade him to Port or AFC if he wants. We may even just let him go, we might be at the ned of our window and get a good compo pick.

That way AFL get to see Horne as a youngster in the important games and then for SA clubs if it suits him.

Hes playing senior SANFL so he can help us in 2022

Geelongs 1st + St kilda’s 2nd + aarts + castagna

I’d love get Horne so badly that we could even throw in Chol too as steak knives

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Would we trade with North for pick one to get Jason Horne?

We have a few picks.

Twoomey and others discussed North possibly trading pick one. They will be down for a while, might be looking for other targets and fear they lose Horne to SA eventually.

When Jason Horne reaches free agency we could trade him to Port or AFC if he wants. We may even just let him go, we might be at the ned of our window and get a good compo pick.

That way AFL get to see Horne as a youngster in the important games and then for SA clubs if it suits him.

Hes playing senior SANFL so he can help us in 2022

Post of the year.

The way your mind works is an endless source of fascination to me Magic.

1. What on earth would possibly possess North to trade the right to Horne for anything we could offer them? How would you feel right now if in 2009 Richmond had traded away the right for Dustin Martin and in return got say pick 12 Kane Lucas, pick 18 Luke Tapscott and pick 27 Callum Bartlett, whoever they are?

2. There doesn’t need to be a 2. Just 1. is enough.

3. Your ability to look ahead and cover off every possible angle of a deal that wouldn’t happen in one million lifetimes is astonishing. Just breathtaking. You are a truly amazing person.

But yes, if North want to give up Horne for our two firsts and a second and maybe Joshua Caddy as well, we’d have to take it, because you can never have too many elite generational South Australians on your list that you can later trade back to Port or Adelaide at the end of your window for a good compensation pick.

Thank you. you have put a smile back on my face with your “you” ness.