Dawson is not a great example as he was not half the player he is today
Warner is a much much better player at the same age or at the time of the trade and i would argue that he is more valuable than Harley Reid at this moment
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Recommitted Chad Warner [Signs until 2027]
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Warner is a much much better player at the same age or at the time of the trade and i would argue that he is more valuable than Harley Reid at this moment
Dawson was a great player at the Swans, it was just only Swans fans knew about it. Takes a few years sometimes for a very good player to get noticed by opposition fans.
Dom sheed pocket
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this is actually not true and I understand Swans frustration during trade period as they tried to tell everyone what a gun Jordan Dawson had been for them and no one cared lol.
Warner is clearly better than Dawson at the same age, though the gap is no where near as much as people think.
I'd also point out the Lachie Neale trade was 6 + 19 for Neale and 30. Neale was a 2xBnF at the time.
Warner is no where near as valuable as Harley who is the most valuable player in the comp other than Daicos/Darcy.
Chad has similar trade value to Luke Jackson. Freo gave up pick 14 a F1 and F2. Given Freo had just played in a SF that F1 projected to be much later than ours. So Hawks pick, F1 for Warner and F2.
If Oscar leaves, I'd tell Sydney take the FA compo and that's. So let's say we finish 16th again, that would be pick 4.
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Then we beg to differ on the Dawson point
But when you give Neal example in the chad warner value as an example i would be interested to see the argument in demanding 3 top picks for reid .
If i was to value Warner i would say he is your 1st pick (top 5 ) plus F1 but i can genuinely see the Swans wanting the and Reid worth slightly less
Dom sheed pocket
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This is just you not being allowed to leave the house for two years around that time.
The argument for Reid is any club who gets him is getting him for 10+ years and he is contracted. was a pick 1 and has shown traits and ability that is genuinely generations in potential.
By comparison, Warner is a very good player has potential to be a top 5 player in the comp.
The arguments for being worth less Warner are that no player since Judd (and the landscape has changed dramatically since then) has been traded for pick 3+ extras. And Warner is uncontracted.
In all players that have been traded since Judd, not one has been pick 3, plus more.
Kelly was the same age, had similar traits and similar stats in 2019 to Warner in 2024.
We paid 14, 15, 27, 38 and people say we paid overs.
Pick 4 for Warner is more valuable than what we gave up for TK.
Both players are 10 year players and being pick #1 after 2 years really has no importance after being selected
Chad Warner is a proven gun player that has been turning games now for 3 years and is ready to go for 10 years
Reid could be anything but currently is no where near the player Warner is today and may never get there.
Warner is a 100% Guaranteed GUN
Dom sheed pocket
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Chad is 24 this year. We'd be getting 7-9 years out of him.
I understand your point on exposed form v potential that makes a comparison near impossible, but Harley is a more valuable asset than Chad for the reasons I outlined above.
For a player who is less than 2 season removed from the draft and still on their rookie contract, draft position matters. It just does.
As a players career advances, where they were taken reduces in terms of importance. No one is basing Chad's value on being a pick 39, clearly.
The comparison doesn't really make much sense, and clearly you're drawing on WC fans to make some kind of comparison so you can bring them back up if Harley becomes available... Not falling for that.
Personally it makes no sense for everyone for Chad to sign for two years at Sydney and then leave as an FA in two years time if he wants to come home.
If Chad is keen to go home this year, clearly West Coast would be interested, I just hope we finally decide to be ruthless about it, as he's out of contract, we're near the bottom of the ladder and need to hit the draft pretty hard still.
Dom sheed pocket
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Difficult trade to break down.
North gave up Horne Francis for 3, 20, F1 and slid from 1 to 2.
Fair to say he cost 3 and extras, which backs up my point that Harley is worth more than Chad. JHF was a trade done based on draft position and potential.
Chad is a very good mid. The more comparable trades are Lachie Neale or similar.
Dom sheed pocket
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Well, Reid was rated higher than JHF in his draft year, has performed better since being in the AFL system.
So there is your answer on Harley's worth.
It doesn't really provide any basis for a comparison for Chad as trades for player in year 1-3 have a different range of factors to players traded after 4+ years in the system.
JHF was rated as #1 from 2 years out same as reid
How or where do you get the rating you are basing that from ?
Also the way harley has started the year and the condition he came back from preseason is not great and if his 'Bad season continues he will be losing value. I personally see both JHF & HR as having similar value if traded at the end of this year
lets see how Harley goes this year
Hope he stays
Dom sheed pocket
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Can't find it now, but someone asked Twomey to rank JHF, Daicos, Ashcroft, Reid, Wardlaw as if they were in the same draft.
Twomey's ranking was:
Daicos (just)
Reid
Ashcroft
Horne-Francis
Wardlaw
It's one person, so far from a consensus view, but he also said that Harley would have gone number 1 if he was eligible for the draft in his underage year in 2022.
Cal Twomey rated patrick Naish at pick #12
He is good with his phantom drafts but its by collating info from recruiters and is not a great judge of talent
i wouldnt be putting alot into that
Yeah it was a strange one. At the time I remember thinking it felt like Giants paid North for JHF to go to Port, and West Coast were along for the ride.
I really don't get the narrative that Harley Reid is the most valuable player in the comp other than Daicos and Darcy.
There probably would be 30 players in the AFL more valuable at this point - and Warner is definitely more valuable than him.
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It'll be easy to take potshots at Freo in response to this but I honestly think WC are completely stupid going for this trade and should be hoping he re-signs, even if that means they might miss on him in two years.
The list is just not there to shell out high end draft capital on a big name player. I remain dumbfounded at their moves last year and doubling down on trying to get Chad is just as dumb.
The list is just not there to shell out high end draft capital on a big name player. I remain dumbfounded at their moves last year and doubling down on trying to get Chad is just as dumb.
Dom sheed pocket
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No, you’re spot on.
The only way a Warner trade makes sense is if it is with a single pick, and west coast off load Allen for band 1 compo.
West Coasts best option is to hit the draft hard.
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Snuffaluphagus
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I dont even like that to be honest, you dont just jettison good players during a rebuild to get in other good players. You bring in more kids. I suppose a single good pick is fine, chances of them being better than Warner are slim but assuming you hit (and you should), you still miss out on like 6 years of service and cheap contract that can help save up for the contending shopping splurge.
Allen is perfect to let go for picks for kids with Waterman, Reid and Williams already chugging along and in the best WA draft year for what feels like forever.
Dom sheed pocket
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Yes, but we are 4 midfielders short of a midfield, and don't really have the luxury of drafting a mid and waiting 4 years for them to develop into a player who can carry a midfield.
17th place finish and pick 2+3. Pick two on Rodriguez (or Sharp if Tiges take Fred) and tell Sydney to take pick 3 and that's it.
Could draft someone like a Curtin with Hawks pick. Then we have Warner, Reid, Rodriguez, Hewett, Graham and Yeo, Gross (who looks impressive in the WAFL) as mids. Waterman, AReid, Jack Williams as tall forwards, Harry Edwards, Shanahan, Bazzo as backs and Curtin can train with whatever KPP stocks are lowest (probably as a KPD).
Duggan, Hough, Ginbey, Baker, Cole, Brockman, Dewar, Maric playing as flankers and wingers.
That's a list profile that is starting to make sense, and is far more coherent in its strategy than what we have now.
Again they are saying looks like Warner will re sign for 2 years, if it looks that way what sort of time frame for this to happen before swans fans get worried
I would have thought by round 10 or 12 otherwise he seriously is thinking of going back west.
I would have thought by round 10 or 12 otherwise he seriously is thinking of going back west.
Did he though?? Apparently he didn't meet with either freo or west coast.I’d hate to think that Chad had met with anyone from West Coast over the past two weeks.
The optics!
