Challenge Ahead

[Dangas]

The next five weeks are going to be interesting,

Brisbane at SCG
Geelong at Skilled
Dogs at Manuka
Fremantle at SCG
Hawks at MCG

If we can win 3 out of those 5 it would be great, however it is going to be a tough few weeks.

Lions is a 60/40 imo, The way the Lions played against the Demons was embarrassing, and with news their key defender Merrett and maybe Brown? injured, it gives us more of a chance, although the Lions have been in good form before this week. We need to watch out for the Fev without CBolts in the side.

Cats down Catland is always difficult, I personally see us dropping this one, but not without a fight.

Big Bad Bazza vs Sydney, this should be a good contest, unlike last year (i hope), Dogs seem to be our Bogey, but difference between previous years, for once, we are unpredictable.

Freo are also unpredictable, either they show up or they don't, before the season I would have marked this down as a win, but Freo atm are playing good footy.

Remember last year at the G, the double 50 metre penalty paid against us which resulted in a goal to the Hawks?, which was arguably, the game breaker that shattered our momentum. But this time round, we don't have Hall in our side.

Overall, IMO, the next five weeks will be hard, but I do think we have a chance to win every one of those.

What do you think?

 

[swans16]

just have a feelin we can get this 5 out of 5
it'll be tough but we'll manage

I want the swans to have that fear factor thingo again, what we had in 2005,2006
for example:
We see that we are vsing geelong at skilled stadium in a couple of weeks and we automatically assume were gonna get killed.
do you think teams are starting to think of us that way (again)?

 

[BarneyBent]

If Merrett and Brown are out, and given their display tonight, we are every chance of beating the Lions. Dogs are definitely doable as well.

Freo have been in good form but no better than us, really. We got closer to the Saints than they did, and while we've beaten relatively low sides, so have Freo, beating Adelaide, Essendon and most like Richmond tomorrow. Sure, they also beat Geelong, but Geelong themselves haven't had a super-impressive start, beating just Hawthorn, Essendon and Port (who are absolute yo-yos at the moment and were clearly having a bad one). Given we're playing them at home, I'd say we're a very decent chance.

Geelong as I said haven't really beaten anybody that particularly impressive, but at Skilled, I'm not holding out particularly great hopes.

There's no reason we can't beat the Hawks at the MCG.

Honestly, I wouldn't be taken aback if we went 4-1 over the next 5 weeks. 3-2 is DEFINITELY achievable. We've put together a bloody good side this year, and we're getting better and more comfortable with each game.

 

[SSFC]

Confident about beating lions and freo,cats at skilled is tough but the one I really want to win is the dogs

 

[kira]

Brisbane at SCG 50/50 home game, both sides could have big outs.... can't say i saw their game against the Dees, but apparently the Dees took their chances... whilst we often overuse the ball.... so i don't think we can draw to many conclusions on that match

Geelong at Skilled 30/70 we'll be outclassed, and G Ablett will destroy us

Dogs at Manuka 30/70 they're turning into a bogey team, absolutely destroyning us with their speed especially from their counter-attacks.... but with 4 quarterbacks and a little bit more run in the middle, we might be able to negate their run

Fremantle at SCG 80/20 must win, no excuse, this ground should trouble them as much as the eagles

Hawks at MCG 50/50 depends who they have available

we've really struggled to make any form of upset in the last few seasons, hopefully things change

i expect 2 wins from the next 5... should see us to a top 6 finish

win 3... and we're a decent chance to finish in the 4 by seasons end

 

[indieswan96]

Round 6 - Brisbane @ SCG
60/40 - WIN
With Merrett, Brown, Power, Drummond all possible and likely outs this is a game we have to win to prove we are serious finals challengers. Bolts is the major out for us but with Brown out it shouldn't be a huge problem and Ted can come in anyway. I think this game will be won in the midfield if we can get good use of the ball from Seaby and MILF our midfield will be able to win us the game. We just need to kick straight
23 point win.

Round 7 - Western Bulldogs @ Manuka Oval
40/60 - Probably a Loss
The key is to stop 3 people in their team Cooney, Griffin and Lake. Cooney is their best midfielder and can rip apart anyteam at anytime whoever gets the job on him - Jack?? - McGylnn if fit??? has to shut him down. I personally like McBabe as he can make Cooney accountable and also is a great shutdown player e.g. Didak last year. Then we have Griffin who so far has been outstanding I think Jude may get him or even Kieran and his explosive running needs to be shutdown and has to be made a liability in defence. Finally Lake the best fullback in the game who is the lynchpin for the dogs if he shutsdown Braddles like he did to Buddy the game is over tbh. The dogs take inspiration from Lake and he seems to lift the side by outmarking his opponent or stopping a goal.
For us we need to isolate Goodes as they don't really have anyone to stop him. Morris is to small and would get slaughtered around the ground, there is no way on earth they would put Williams on him that would be suicide and Lake would be a last resort and he would be blown up by Goodes anyway. So the player they would put on him might be Everitt but if we plonk Goodes in the square I would back him 9/10 to mark the ball. But we need to play this game in the trenches make it slow dour affair if it rains that would help immensly we have to play 2005/6 footy to win not an open slogfest. But I'm not sure if we will but I will tip us anyway.
Swans by 9 points

Round 8 - Geelong @ Skilled Stadium
30/70 - Loss but competetive
They key man in this match will be not Gary Ablett but Jarryd McVeigh. Why? Because he is the best exponent of making a gun accountable e.g. Judd is his bitch. As these two chrome domes fight it out the match will be decided when the Cats have the ball McVeigh has to be glue to Ablett and put a hard tag on him BUT as soon as we have the ball he leaves Ablett and if Ablett goes with him then its good as he has to play a defensive role and if he decides to not go with him he is leaving a dangerous player manless so its a win/win for us. Enright is another key for cats and I think Marty Mattner has to do a defensive forward job on him and shut him out completely.
With Scarlett maybe not playing we can isolate Mackie into a defensive outpost on either Jesse or Goodes where I would be confident we can win. Taylor is in great form and most likely will play on Goodes and Goodes has to push up the ground and go into the midfield alot so Taylor has to chop and change. Finally Paul Chapman is the X - Factor who will turn a game on its head within a few seconds. If we can stop him from getting 20+ possesions and less than 2 goals it is a win.
Our Key player is ROK as I'm not quite sure who the cats will have that can play him maybe Ling if he stays in the Midfield but as a Forward/Defender situation Ling would be r*ped so we need him to have a ripper and take the match on.
If McVeigh>Ablett, Goodes, White and Bradshaw> Taylor, Mackie and Lonergan or Scarlett and finally Mattner> Enright we will win however I don't see this happening
Cats by 19

Round 9 - HEAVE HO FREO @ SCG
65/35 - WIN
Grundy, Grundy, Grundy he is the man who has to step up in this match he will most likely take on The Man for Freo no not 211 but the Pav and if he can stop this man he should be AA CHB this year.
Our rucks will play an important role in trying to stop 211 but I think he will generally dominate anyway. Palmer will be playing in this match so he is their main man I would expect Kirky or Jude to play on him. Tarrant and McPharlin have been rock solid in defence so the ball has to goto Goodes and Bradshaw with pinpoint accuracy. Hayden, Duffield and Broughton are the key defenders who will hurts us I think Nick Smith would play on Roger and maybe Mattner and Bmac on the others. At our home I would expect them to struggle like WCE did this week and being a young side we should be able pressure them into mistakes. This is a game we should win in the midfield and really should dominate Freo with our running defenders and get the ball to our fork attack and make them pay.
Swans by 31

Round 10 - Hawthorn @ MCG
50/50 - WIN
Depends who is availiable for them really but I think we should be able to beat them regardless we really should slaughter them in the ruck and get first use of the ball and pass it to the forwards we have to do the basics and we should win. Kirk will shut down Mitchell and Jude will goto Sewell. Hodge is their leader and the one we need desperately to stop I think Bmac may go to him and try to make him bit more accountable. If Bolts is out LRT - Roughead and Reg - Franklin, which is good the way LRT and Reg and the way Roughie and BUddy are going. Not sure who will play on Goodes and ROK but they will need to be moved everywhere to try and blow their opponents up. I would say Shiels may goto McVeigh if so McVeigh has a huge tank so he needs to run Shiels off his feet and make the Hawks pay. We have a great asset in our forward line which really should make mince meat of the Hawks defence. Especially if put a resting ruckman up there permanently. We really can isolate Schoenmakers, Birchall and Gilham. I think Bradshaw will have a field day and tbh should kick 5 or 6. If he does this I think we really just should beat them in all facets but if we are switched off we could be slaughtered.
Swans by 29

That would make us 8 - 2 after round 10 meaning a top 8 spot is formaility and we should be pushing for a top 4 spot. But I am a bit optimistic.

 

[SkankDanker]

Round 6 - Brisbane @ SCG
60/40 - WIN
With Merrett, Brown, Power, Drummond all possible and likely outs this is a game we have to win to prove we are serious finals challengers. Bolts is the major out for us but with Brown out it shouldn't be a huge problem and Ted can come in anyway. I think this game will be won in the midfield if we can get good use of the ball from Seaby and MILF our midfield will be able to win us the game. We just need to kick straight
23 point win.

Round 7 - Western Bulldogs @ Manuka Oval
40/60 - Probably a Loss
The key is to stop 3 people in their team Cooney, Griffin and Lake. Cooney is their best midfielder and can rip apart anyteam at anytime whoever gets the job on him - Jack?? - McGylnn if fit??? has to shut him down. I personally like McBabe as he can make Cooney accountable and also is a great shutdown player e.g. Didak last year. Then we have Griffin who so far has been outstanding I think Jude may get him or even Kieran and his explosive running needs to be shutdown and has to be made a liability in defence. Finally Lake the best fullback in the game who is the lynchpin for the dogs if he shutsdown Braddles like he did to Buddy the game is over tbh. The dogs take inspiration from Lake and he seems to lift the side by outmarking his opponent or stopping a goal.
For us we need to isolate Goodes as they don't really have anyone to stop him. Morris is to small and would get slaughtered around the ground, there is no way on earth they would put Williams on him that would be suicide and Lake would be a last resort and he would be blown up by Goodes anyway. So the player they would put on him might be Everitt but if we plonk Goodes in the square I would back him 9/10 to mark the ball. But we need to play this game in the trenches make it slow dour affair if it rains that would help immensly we have to play 2005/6 footy to win not an open slogfest. But I'm not sure if we will but I will tip us anyway.
Swans by 9 points

Round 8 - Geelong @ Skilled Stadium
30/70 - Loss but competetive
They key man in this match will be not Gary Ablett but Jarryd McVeigh. Why? Because he is the best exponent of making a gun accountable e.g. Judd is his bitch. As these two chrome domes fight it out the match will be decided when the Cats have the ball McVeigh has to be glue to Ablett and put a hard tag on him BUT as soon as we have the ball he leaves Ablett and if Ablett goes with him then its good as he has to play a defensive role and if he decides to not go with him he is leaving a dangerous player manless so its a win/win for us. Enright is another key for cats and I think Marty Mattner has to do a defensive forward job on him and shut him out completely.
With Scarlett maybe not playing we can isolate Mackie into a defensive outpost on either Jesse or Goodes where I would be confident we can win. Taylor is in great form and most likely will play on Goodes and Goodes has to push up the ground and go into the midfield alot so Taylor has to chop and change. Finally Paul Chapman is the X - Factor who will turn a game on its head within a few seconds. If we can stop him from getting 20+ possesions and less than 2 goals it is a win.
Our Key player is ROK as I'm not quite sure who the cats will have that can play him maybe Ling if he stays in the Midfield but as a Forward/Defender situation Ling would be r*ped so we need him to have a ripper and take the match on.
If McVeigh>Ablett, Goodes, White and Bradshaw> Taylor, Mackie and Lonergan or Scarlett and finally Mattner> Enright we will win however I don't see this happening
Cats by 19

Round 9 - HEAVE HO FREO @ SCG
65/35 - WIN
Grundy, Grundy, Grundy he is the man who has to step up in this match he will most likely take on The Man for Freo no not 211 but the Pav and if he can stop this man he should be AA CHB this year.
Our rucks will play an important role in trying to stop 211 but I think he will generally dominate anyway. Palmer will be playing in this match so he is their main man I would expect Kirky or Jude to play on him. Tarrant and McPharlin have been rock solid in defence so the ball has to goto Goodes and Bradshaw with pinpoint accuracy. Hayden, Duffield and Broughton are the key defenders who will hurts us I think Nick Smith would play on Roger and maybe Mattner and Bmac on the others. At our home I would expect them to struggle like WCE did this week and being a young side we should be able pressure them into mistakes. This is a game we should win in the midfield and really should dominate Freo with our running defenders and get the ball to our fork attack and make them pay.
Swans by 31

Round 10 - Hawthorn @ MCG
50/50 - WIN
Depends who is availiable for them really but I think we should be able to beat them regardless we really should slaughter them in the ruck and get first use of the ball and pass it to the forwards we have to do the basics and we should win. Kirk will shut down Mitchell and Jude will goto Sewell. Hodge is their leader and the one we need desperately to stop I think Bmac may go to him and try to make him bit more accountable. If Bolts is out LRT - Roughead and Reg - Franklin, which is good the way LRT and Reg and the way Roughie and BUddy are going. Not sure who will play on Goodes and ROK but they will need to be moved everywhere to try and blow their opponents up. I would say Shiels may goto McVeigh if so McVeigh has a huge tank so he needs to run Shiels off his feet and make the Hawks pay. We have a great asset in our forward line which really should make mince meat of the Hawks defence. Especially if put a resting ruckman up there permanently. We really can isolate Schoenmakers, Birchall and Gilham. I think Bradshaw will have a field day and tbh should kick 5 or 6. If he does this I think we really just should beat them in all facets but if we are switched off we could be slaughtered.
Swans by 29

That would make us 8 - 2 after round 10 meaning a top 8 spot is formaility and we should be pushing for a top 4 spot. But I am a bit optimistic.

Nice post, agree about Grundy AA not ridiculous at all. Keeping Pav quiet would be what we need to win.

Why do you think Drummond won't play, he didn't seem to get hurt - he was one of the few good Lions players last night.

Maybe we could put Jack on Ablett again, test his character, though I do think he needed extensive counseling after last time!

 

[indieswan96]

Nice post, agree about Grundy AA not ridiculous at all. Keeping Pav quiet would be what we need to win.

Why do you think Drummond won't play, he didn't seem to get hurt - he was one of the few good Lions players last night.

Maybe we could put Jack on Ablett again, test his character, though I do think he needed extensive counseling after last time!

Thread on the Brizzy board but had no link so not very trustworth but it would be a big blow if he was out for them. As for Jack I personally like McVeigh on Ablett as he seems to be able to make the big superstar mids accountable my example is Judd who he shuts down but as well scores a few goals and racks it up.

 

[GoTheSwannies]

they're all winnable games...with geelong & dogs being the toughest...we should be able to beat the lions at home next week, especially with a few of their players in doubt....freo's definitely winnable at home...and hawks...we tend to do well against them...like everyone said, it's 50/50 but i'm expecting a win...

2 or 3 out of the next 5 would be the expectation...4 wins would pretty much confirm us as a genuine top 4 contender...

 

[Dangas]

I have to add, every time we play the Cats down skilled, its the Stevie J show, need to stop him, averaging 4 goals a game against us down there

 

[SkankDanker]

Does anyone know how serious Craig Bolton's injury is? Maybe I should read some other threads, but we need him against the cats badly if they go the three pronged attack.

 

[Rhino5]

it's a tough run.....winning 3 out of 5 would be excellent in my view....anything better just gravy.

 

[RUNVS]

I will be happy if we win 3 out of 5 as that would mean we are genuine top 4 chances. If by some miracle we win 4 out of 5 then i think we will be genuine premiership contenders (though i don't think we will win 4 out of 5).

Still 3 out of 5 is definitely achievable if we play some really good football.

 

[Chinners100]

Brisbane- WIN

With the likes of browny and merett expected to miss, and their disappointing loss to the dees, i rkn we can own them while theyre down.

Bulldogs- LOSS

They have too much skill and poise...although we'll give em a shake.

Geelong-LOSS

Cant see us winning this one. Geelong play that ground superbly, they havent lost since 2007 over there, not expecting anything to change.

Freo -WIN

At the SCG we'll be coming in as favourites, but it all depends on our form coming in to the game.

Hawthorn -WIN

the Hawks look pretty average atm, and we should teach them a lesson at the G

as you all said, i would be loving it if we won 3/5, 2/5 would be also very good, 0-1/5 will have people asking qquestions about us

 

[BarneyBent]

People are seriously overrating some of our opponents, I reckon. Just this weekend, we've seen Melbourne thrash Brisbane, who were fresh from a reasonably convincing defeat of the Bulldogs, Richmond stick with Freo for most of the game and leading, at times comfortably, through the first half. And St. Kilda lost to Port!

I know that for the last 3 years, there have been one or two teams absolutely dominate, the "teams to beat", etc. It's only early days, but this season doesn't seem to be shaping up like that. Any team can beat any other team at the moment (perhaps with the exception of Richmond!), and we have been playing no worse than the Lions, Dogs, Dockers, considerably better than Hawthorn, and we're not without a chance of an upset against Geelong.

 

[Chinners100]

we're not without a chance of an upset against Geelong.

Im sorry but this is not possible! we're a chance to beat the dogs at manuka with reg tearing bazza a new one and with our usual suspects firing,ill give you that.

Geelong just have a knack of winning at skilled and have a knack of winning fullstop. Look i'm not underestimating our side, we're a great team lots of determination, but i just dont see us winning. Hopefully im mistaken though

 

[barry fu]

People are seriously overrating some of our opponents, I reckon. Just this weekend, we've seen Melbourne thrash Brisbane, who were fresh from a reasonably convincing defeat of the Bulldogs, Richmond stick with Freo for most of the game and leading, at times comfortably, through the first half. And St. Kilda lost to Port!

I know that for the last 3 years, there have been one or two teams absolutely dominate, the "teams to beat", etc. It's only early days, but this season doesn't seem to be shaping up like that. Any team can beat any other team at the moment (perhaps with the exception of Richmond!), and we have been playing no worse than the Lions, Dogs, Dockers, considerably better than Hawthorn, and we're not without a chance of an upset against Geelong.

Bang on Bloostainedangle5. To many cyber squibs around here have been drinking Drano and washed away any semblance of internal fortitude they may once have had, if at all.
Freo, Port and Melbourne have shown how wide open that this years race is. Thankfully the playing group have more belief in themselves than some around here.
Roos is piloting this assault to perfection, so fecking wake up to yourselves.

 

[db swannie]

Fu et al speaketh the truth. We are a big chance in all games, including Skilled. We have to start thinking in terms of how other teams are going to combat our style and structure, and not just the other way round. We are playing a different style of football to the last 6-7 years, and it's beginning to show. This makes us less predictable, and we have injected youth and speed...Other teams lined up against us in the past knowing what to expect, but not any more

Brisbane last night have come crashing back to earth a bit, and look like they've lost Merritt and maybe Brown. Hawks look like they are really struggling with injuries and form, Geelong have been up and down, as have the Bulldogs. I think that Freo are punching above their weight a bit, and I count that game as a win. We most likely won't win all five, but I believe they are all winnable, definitely.

 

[BarneyBent]

Geelong just have a knack of winning at skilled and have a knack of winning fullstop. Look i'm not underestimating our side, we're a great team lots of determination, but i just dont see us winning. Hopefully im mistaken though

Don't get me wrong, Geelong will be favourites, and rightly so. But even they don't seem to quite have captured that "unbeatable" vibe they've had the last couple of years. I guess that's what losing to Fremantle does to you, but even against Hawthorn, though they stormed home with a win, early on they lacked that polish. I still think they've been playing the best footy in the comp, alongside St. Kilda, but both teams, while still at the front, have come back to the back a bit.

I will pencil in Geelong as a loss. I expect to beat Brisbane, we're probably 50/50 against the Dogs at Manuka, I think we're 60/40 against Freo at home, small but decent chance of an upset against Geelong and I expect to beat Hawthorn. 3-4 wins is very attainable.

 

[clarkey62]

The next five weeks are going to be interesting,

Brisbane at SCG
Geelong at Skilled
Dogs at Manuka
Fremantle at SCG
Hawks at MCG

If we can win 3 out of those 5 it would be great, however it is going to be a tough few weeks.

Lions is a 60/40 imo, The way the Lions played against the Demons was embarrassing, and with news their key defender Merrett and maybe Brown? injured, it gives us more of a chance, although the Lions have been in good form before this week. We need to watch out for the Fev without CBolts in the side.

Cats down Catland is always difficult, I personally see us dropping this one, but not without a fight.

Big Bad Bazza vs Sydney, this should be a good contest, unlike last year (i hope), Dogs seem to be our Bogey, but difference between previous years, for once, we are unpredictable.

Freo are also unpredictable, either they show up or they don't, before the season I would have marked this down as a win, but Freo atm are playing good footy.

Remember last year at the G, the double 50 metre penalty paid against us which resulted in a goal to the Hawks?, which was arguably, the game breaker that shattered our momentum. But this time round, we don't have Hall in our side.

Overall, IMO, the next five weeks will be hard, but I do think we have a chance to win every one of those.

What do you think?

Ive been dreading this run of 5 games. And we have the same 5 teams for the last 5 games of the year too. If we are going to be a serious threat then we must win the majority of these games. We have improved every week so there is no reason why we cant.

Go Swannies

 

[Dangas]

And we have the same 5 teams for the last 5 games of the year too.

yer bs fixture

 

[GoTheSwannies]

Fu et al speaketh the truth. We are a big chance in all games, including Skilled. We have to start thinking in terms of how other teams are going to combat our style and structure, and not just the other way round. We are playing a different style of football to the last 6-7 years, and it's beginning to show. This makes us less predictable, and we have injected youth and speed...Other teams lined up against us in the past knowing what to expect, but not any more

Brisbane last night have come crashing back to earth a bit, and look like they've lost Merritt and maybe Brown. Hawks look like they are really struggling with injuries and form, Geelong have been up and down, as have the Bulldogs. I think that Freo are punching above their weight a bit, and I count that game as a win. We most likely won't win all five, but I believe they are all winnable, definitely.

although that's true, i just think we're trying not to get ahead of ourselves...we still have only beaten the bottom few sides so far...as for brisbane...they were probably looking like a 40/60 proposition until last nite...sure they got smashed by melbourne, but have run into some injuries, + melbourne also pushed collingwood...so it's partly due to melbourne's good form, and partly due to injuries...brisbane are really a better team than what their current form suggests...

geelong at skilled...they're almost unbeatable there...sure, they lost to freemantle, but had alot of outs for that game...and they've performed well against other teams, one of the form sides of the comp...playing at home...you'd pencil that in as a loss...and hope for a win

bulldogs, have been up and down...so really it's 50/50 depending on which team turns up...but they've performed well against us in the last few seasons...i'd expect them to turn up to play against us, i'd expect barry hall to be determined, and they usually build up form over the first few weeks of the comp...so we may be playing them at their peak...that makes them 40/60 imo ...while their current form doesn't suggest their too dangerous...when they're on they're very dangerous...we have to expect that

freemantle...up until the richmond game...they were looking like a strong team....a few more questions hanging over them...should be a win...but you can't expect anything in this comp...you have to turn up to play on the day...

hawthorn...they look in trouble atm, but have pushed geelong, and got over run in the last, ruck stocks are a worry....but this game is 5 weeks away...depends how many players they get back for this match....they're playing 4 bottom 4 sides over the next few weeks and may manage to play themselves into form by the time they reach us....on current form, you'd expect a win....if they get players back and hit their straps they will be tough to beat...too late to call...but may not be able to overcome their form/injury issues...

3-4/5 is what we'd be aiming for...but 5/5...is our form good enough?? are we a good enough team to beat geelong at skilled, and if we beat geelong at skilled, will we manage to not drop one of the other 4 matches?...it's possible, but we'll find out in the next 5 weeks

 

[RaZoRBlad3]

This is probably the best time for us to be up against Brisbane and the Cats. Brisbane has been suffering from injuries whereas Geelong has now been beaten by Fremantle and Carlton. Bring it on I reckon!

 

[clarkey62]

yer bs fixture

I must be getting old because I have no idea what this means

 

[RUNVS]

I must be getting old because I have no idea what this means

yer = yeah
bs = bullshit