Champion Data simulated season

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Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 14, 2017
6,883
12,958
AFL Club
Hawthorn
They've simulated the 2018 season 100,000 times based on their team and player rankings to come out with the result, which seems like it'll have the Pies in finals more often than not.

champion-data-ladder.jpg
 

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The problem is that they're trying to predict what will happen this year, based off what has happened in the past year or two.

So if we were going back in time to play these games it would be a good chance of being accurate, but we're not, we're playing them this year, and teams and those within them will perform differently this year to how they did in the last year or two, so it's obviously not likely to be super-accurate.

Next.
 

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It's ridiculous for a variety of reasons, but the weirdest part is how West Coast are 12th despite finishing 6th and 7th in the past 2 years where the data comes from.

Like, I know the loss of Priddis leaves a large hole, but come on...
 
What about the intangibles?

Spirit? Doggedness? Stickability? Moral? Sacrafice? Mateship?

Not to mention the hours and hours of meditation! How do you measure the meditation factor?
 
The problem is that they're trying to predict what will happen this year, based off what has happened in the past year or two.

So if we were going back in time to play these games it would be a good chance of being accurate, but we're not, we're playing them this year, and teams and those within them will perform differently this year to how they did in the last year or two, so it's obviously not likely to be super-accurate.

Next.

Nostradamus rang. Said he's unavailable.

I can however recommend this bloke, grasshopper.
267586157-kungfu22.jpg

Other than that....i'm struggling to think what you could possibly expect people to use when compiling a prediction piece.
You expect them to predict whatever YOU predict, consult the soothsayers, run it past a few wise Hobbits and Wizards, then write it up as somehow "accurate".

How the Fk can it be "super accurate" ? :huh:
 
What about the intangibles?

Spirit? Doggedness? Stickability? Moral? Sacrafice? Mateship?

Not to mention the hours and hours of meditation! How do you measure the meditation factor?

You forgot about "shinboner spirit". No metrics could ever calculate the sheer importance of the shinboner way
 
Nostradamus rang. Said he's unavailable.

I can however recommend this bloke, grasshopper.
View attachment 465614

Other than that....i'm struggling to think what you could possibly expect people to use when compiling a prediction piece.
You expect them to predict whatever YOU predict, consult the soothsayers, run it past a few wise Hobbits and Wizards, then write it up as somehow "accurate".

How the Fk can it be "super accurate" ? :huh:
But I'm not expecting any more from them, due to the fact they are basing what they predict will happen on what has happened in the past, rather than trying to predict what will happen this year- in particular, which clubs have the biggest scope for improvement due to young lists etc.
 

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